The CoRA Near-Side Effort

Aaron Birch, Graham Barnes, Doug Braun, Ashley Crouch, KD Leka, Charlie Lindsey, Joe Wernewith collaborators Bob Stein & Yuhong Fan

Main Topics• Forward modeling: estimate what we

expect the signatures of emerging active regions to be

• Data analysis: look for signatures of active regions (time-distance and holography)

• Statistical studies: search for helioseismic predictors for emergence, evolution, and flare productivity

Forward Modeling• Want to know what to expect for helioseismic signatures

of emerging/evolving active regions• Look to simulations for guidance

– Fan: rising flux tubes. Okay up to about 20 Mm depth.

– Stein: magnetoconvection

• Born approximation• Semi-analytical approaches• Direct numerical simulation of wave propagation or apply data analysis directly to simulations of magnetoconvection.

Modeling Tools:

Data Analysis

• Begin by applying standard methods

• Look for whatever is predicted by the models or other observers or …

• Try as many approaches as possibly. Don’t want to be limited by our preconceptions.

Statistical Studies“The prime measure of success for this work will

be to demonstrate a statistically significant ability to predict the location of new active regions before they are visible on the surface of the Sun and also their evolution.”

To do statistical studies, we need a reasonable (?) number of observations of emerging active regions, evolving active regions … I think it would be useful to have a standard set of data cubes on which all prediction methods could be tested (don’t have to rely only on helioseismic methods) and at least one generally agreed upon test of statistical significance.

Discussion

• If you have data sets for public use, let me know

• Data distribution: HMI database ?• Special session: agu, spd, soho/gong ?• What would be a useful next meeting ? A

more general meeting ? Team only ?• Once we have data cubes: community

involvement (solarnews ?)

Discussion

• Target selection, do we need more discussion on this topic ?

• Anything else ?

• What can I do that would be helpful ?