the copernicus marine service cmems global and regional ... · marie drévillon, mercator ocean. on...
TRANSCRIPT
Marine Monitoring
Impl
emen
ted
by
Marie Drévillon, Mercator Oceanon behalf of the Copernicus Marine Service team
T h e C o p e r n i c u s M a r i n e S e r v i c e C M E M S
g l o b a l a n d r e g i o n a l o c e a n r e a n a l y s e s
Towards a consistent set of high resolution ocean reanalysesfor operational oceanography users and ocean state monitoring
Marine Monitoring
O v e r v i e w
The Copernicus Marine Service: a set of global and regional high resolutionocean reanalyses
Results from the Copernicus Marine Service reanalyses
Ongoing work on uncertaintycharacterisation
Marine Monitoring
T h e C o p e r n i c u s M a r i n e S e r v i c e i n a n u t s h e l l
• A network of European producers
From different European countries A large span of products and state-of-the-art European operational Products
• A central information system to search, view, download products and monitor the system• Currently ~7000 users worldwide
• A unique catalogue of observations, reanalyses, near-real-time analyses and forecasts of the blue, white and green ocean ~150 numerical products
http://marine.copernicus.eu
Marine Monitoring
C M E M S p o r t o f o l i o g a t h e r s 1 4 m a r i n e p a r a m e t e r s
PARAMETER MODEL SATELLITE (surface ocean)
INSITU
25years in the past Today 10-day forecast 25years in the past
Today 25years in the past Today
Sea Surface Height x x x x x x x
Temperature X X X X X X X
Salinity X X X X X
Waves X X X
Currents/velocity X X X X X
Mixed Layer Depth x x x x x
Sea ice X X X X X
Turbidity/Transparency X X
Reflectance X X
Nutrients x x x x
Primary Production X X X x
Oxygen X X X x
Plankton x x x x
Wind X X
Marine Monitoring
C M E M S g a t h e r s 1 6 o c e a n r e a n a l y s e s
1 PHY1 BIO
2 PHY1 BIO
1 PHY 1 BIO
1 PHY1 BIO
2 PHY1 BIO
1 PHY1 BIO
1 PHY1 BIO ¼° daily
1° multi(4)-reana
1955-2015 AMIP 1987-2015 ERAi
Current status: • Altimetry era 1993-now• Ocean Colour ERA for BIO 1997-now• High resolution (<10km) in regions• 80% use NEMO platform• 3DVAR, SEEK + 3DVAR, EnKF …• 80% assimilate SST SLA and in situ (+ sea ice)• 30% BIO assimilate Ocean Colour
Marine Monitoring
C M E M S g a t h e r s 1 6 o c e a n r e a n a l y s e s
1 PHY1 BIO
2 PHY1 BIO
1 PHY 1 BIO
1 PHY1 BIO
2 PHY1 BIO
1 PHY1 BIO
1 PHY1 BIO
Main objectives : • Altimetry era 1993-now• High resolution (<5 km) models• Optimal use of obs. network• Consistency with RT analysis• (DA) BIO coupled or forced by PHY• Agreement on validation metrics• Maximum consistency in between regions• Maximum cross use of CMEMS products
See strategy document on marine.copernicus.eu
Marine Monitoring
T h e 7 m o n i t o r i n g a n d f o r e c a s t i n g c e n t e r s
Marine Monitoring
T h e C M E M S O c e a n S t a t e R e p o r t
Written by 80 scientific experts from more than 25 European institutions, peer reviewed publication, the first ocean state report is a step forward into the development of regular annual reporting on the state and health of the global ocean and European regional seas
based on Copernicus Marine Service products.
More information:http://marine.copernicus.eu/science-learning/ocean-state-report/ocean-
state-report-2016-1st-issue/
Issue #2 under review
Including CCI productsdisseminated by
CMEMS
Marine Monitoring
E v a l u a t i o n o f o c e a n r e a n a l y s e s
RMS < 0.3 m.s-1
Underestimation of EUC (Equatorial Under Current)Continuous improvement since the beginning of GLORYS-> data assimilation & mean dynamic topography
Independent current meters from TAO/TRITON (in situ TAC)
V3
CurrentV4
OBS
See poster by Garric et al.
Marine Monitoring
H i g h r e s o l u t i o n g l o b a l r e a n a l y s i s G L O R Y S 1 2First results from GLORYS12SLA horizontally averaged residual = observation – analysis RMS differences
GLO ¼°NRT
GLO 1/12°V1 NRT GLO 1/12°
V2 NRT
GLORYS 1/12°RAN (1993-2013)
GLO 1/12°V3 NRT
2007-now
J1 J2
GLORYS ¼°RAN (1993-2013)
See poster by Lellouche et al.
Marine Monitoring
H i g h r e s o l u t i o n I B l r e a n a l y s i s v s G L O R Y S
Comparisons with CMEMS regional reanalyses : upgraded physics and higher resolution improve physical processes-> Continuous improvement « feedback loop » between CMEMS regional and global reanalyses-> towards higher resolution in both regional and global reanalyses
SSH low frequency correlation at tide gauges
IBIRYS 1/12°GLORYS ¼°
JUNMAYAPR
IBIRYS
GLORYS
Observation of Biscay Coastal jets fromBatifoulier et al (2012)
2002Courtesy of Bruno Levier
Marine Monitoring
H i g h r e s o l u t i o n B A L r e a n a l y s i s v s o b s e r v a t i o n s
Bottom Bio simulation at BY5(55.25,15.98)
Averaged Bio simulation during the period 1993-2016 at BY15(57.33, 20.05)
Courtesy of Liu Ye et al
Marine Monitoring
M E D s e a r e a n a l y s i s
1/16° physical reanalysis starting in (CMCC)
Biogeochemical reanalysis with assimilation of Ocean Colour observations (OGS)
Courtesy of C. Fratianni et al
Long term: higher resolutioncoupling with Black Sea reanalysis
Marine Monitoring
U n c e r t a i n t y c h a r a c t e r i s a t i o n
Intercomparison/validation to assess uncertainties among ocean reanalyses (model errors and bias, observing system reliability over time)
• GODAE/CLIVAR/GSOP ORA-IP, Balmaseda et al (2015) JOO • Multi ORA NRT intercomparison, Xue et al (2017) Clim. Dyn.• CMEMS multi-reanalysis ensemble product GREP based on ORCA025
GLORYS/C-GLORS (CMCC)/GLOSEA5 (UKMO)/ORAS5 (ECMWF) • Intercomparison of high resolution reanalyses is planned (HYCOM and
GLORYS12)• Evaluation of Ocean Syntheses COST Action http://eos-cost.eu
Ensemble modelling and data assimilation:• Stochastic perturbations• ensemble data assimilation GLORYS (at ¼°) planned for 2020
Marine Monitoring
A s s e s s i n g u n c e r t a i n t i e s o n O M I s w i t h G R E P
Figures and results from the Ocean State Report #2, under review at JOO
Heat content using GREP ensemble mean + CORA + ARMOR3D shading = where signal > spread
See poster by Storto et al (steric height), and Drevillon et al (T, S, U, V)
See poster by Jackson et al. (AMOC), and Zuo et al (SeaIce)
Marine Monitoring
A s s e s s i n g u n c e r t a i n t i e s a t r e g i o n a l s c a l e
• Intercomparisons in progress on commonregions : – IBI/MED– NWS/BAL– GLO/ARC
Multi-reanalysis productusing up to 6 product on the NWS area1 NWS, 1 IBI, 2 IMR, 1 PML, 1 NOC
Courtesy of M. Tonani et al
Marine Monitoring Global and regional reanalyses and uncertainty estimates are available from the
Copernicus Marine Service CMEMS• Powerful tool for ocean monitoring• necessary reference for all NRT applications• Towards more consistency with NRT analyses (HR, observing system shape) -> requested by
CMEMS users
Intercomparison and ensemble approaches are favored to provide uncertaintyestimates, international HR reanalyses intercomparisons are planned
Short to mid term perspectives: higher resolution , more assimilation of Ocean Colourobservations, reanalyses for waves
Many challenges (high resolution atmospheric forcing, ocean-atmosphere-wave-icecoupling, river runoffs, extension in the past, climate monitoring) to be tackled in partnership with Climate Change Service
More details on our posters (GLORYS 1/12°, GREP etc.) !
C o n c l u s i o n s
http://www.eos-cost.eu
Earth System Science and Environmental Management
A COST Action to improve the coordination of European efforts in the evaluation of ocean syntheses:
better understanding of the value and use of ocean syntheses promote the use of ocean syntheses
Chairs:Aida Alvera-Azcárate (University of Liège, BE)Keith Haines (University of Reading, UK)
Marine Monitoring
H i g h r e s o l u t i o n g l o b a l r e a n a l y s i s G L O R Y S 1 2
Marine Monitoring
Longer time series (30 years) [to assess climate trends] Need of reanalysis close to present time Ocean monitoring activities: Ocean State Report, Indicators Need of atmospheric forcing data used in the reanalysis Climatological products derived from the reanalysis products Waves in reanalysis Need of reanalysis compliant and in continuity to real time
products Global reanalysis at a resolution higher than 0.25 degree Guidelines for the use of the multiple reanalysis products
U s e r s ’ r e q u e s t s a b o u t r e a n a l y s e s
Collaboration with C3S
Collaboration with C3S
OSR#1 in 2016
Expected in 2018
Expected in 2018
Continuous improvement of QUIDs, intercomparisons
Expected in 2018
Objective 2020: NRT-1 month in interim mode
Expected in 2018
Marine Monitoring The project started in 2006, led by Nicolas Ferry and Bernard Barnier
(CNRS) Use of NEMO ORCA025 + LIM, strong pan-European collaboration Forced with ERA-interim reanalysis (large scale correction of rainfall and
radiative forcing) and climatological runoffs Multivariate assimilation of SST, SLA, in situ T/S profiles (and
monovariate for Sea Ice since 2011) consistent with what is done for global real time analysis
3D T and S restoring to climatology at Gibraltar strait, Bab el Mandebstrait, and south of 60°S below 2000m
No SSS or SST restoring Focused on the altimetry era: 1992-now Evaluation protocole from GODAE/GSOP/ORA-IP
E x a m p l e o f G L O R Y S g l o b a l r e a n a l y s i s
Marine Monitoring
S u r f a c e e q u i l i b r i u m i n G L O R Y S
Net Mean Surface Heat Uptake :
+ 0.5W.M2
Net Surface Heat FluxesSea Surface Temperaturesurface heat fluxes
trend (-0.3 W.M2) ilargely explained by the
positive evaporation trend (+2.2mm/year).
Trend of evaporation : +2.2 mm/Year.
Trend of surface net heat flux :
-0.3 W.M2/YearComparable to PMWC evap trend
2.35 mm/Year
See poster by Garric et al.