the controversy regarding hs3 surface pressure observations during the rapid intensification of...
DESCRIPTION
NOAA P-3 and GH MSLP Measurements Date/TimeLocation relative to center Psfc (mb) Wind Speed (kt) Estimated MSLP(mb)** P3 14/1500Eye center9834 P3 14/1707NE GH 14/2103N GH 15/0031N GH 15/0034S GH 15/0217W_SW GH 15/0428N GH 15/0552NW **Surface pressure adjusted 1 mb for each 10 kt Adjusted Psfc derived from lowest altitude pressure measurementTRANSCRIPT
The Controversy Regarding HS3 Surface Pressure Observations
During The Rapid Intensification of Edouard on September 14-15
Scott BraunNASA/GSFC
Controversy over Dropsonde Data During Sept. 14-15 Flight
• NHC night shift rejected HS3 dropsonde measurements of surface pressure during flight
• Morning shift reversed decision, upgraded storm intensity
• However, final storm report did not accept HS3 central pressure estimates
NOAA P-3 and GH MSLP Measurements
Date/Time Location relative to
center
Psfc (mb)
Wind Speed (kt)
Estimated MSLP(mb)**
P3 14/1500 Eye center 983 4 983
P3 14/1707 NE 984 80 976
GH 14/2103 N 972 89 963
GH 15/0031 N 967 86 958
GH 15/0034 S 977 56 971
GH 15/0217 W_SW 975 56 970
GH 15/0428 N 971 84 963
GH 15/0552 NW 972 68 965
**Surface pressure adjusted 1 mb for each 10 kt
Adjusted Psfc derived from lowest altitude pressure measurement
GH Surface Pressures and Winds
Surface Pressure Surface Winds
Pressures and winds appear consistent with strong storm
Wind barbs show storm-relative winds
NHC Final MSLP Time Series
NHC Final MSLP Time SeriesP-3 drops
North-sideGH drops
South-sideGH drops North-side
GH drops
The Beginning of a Convective Burst
9/14 1045 UTC 9/14 1145 UTC
9/14 1345 UTC9/14 1245 UTC
• Convective burst began near 1045 UTC on NW side of eye
• Over time, CB cloud shield expanded and moved to southern side
• As cloud shied expanded, the eye was obscured
The First P-3 Drop
9/14 1445 UTC
9/14 1457 UTC
9/14 1500 UTC
NOAA P-3 dropsonde reported MSLP of 983 mb, 2 m s-1 surface wind
The eye is still obscured by CB cirrus shield
Gradual Formation of a New Eye
9/14 1515 UTC 9/14 1545 UTC
9/14 1615 UTC 9/14 1645 UTC
• CB cloud shield continues to circle around southern to eastern sides
• New eye begins to for by ~1645 UTC
9/14 1618 UTC
Last P-3 Drop
9/14 1715 UTC
9/14 1707 UTC
• NOAA P-3 dropsonde reported MSLP of 984 mb, 41 m s-1 surface wind.
• Suggests possible MSLP closer to 976 mb, a 7 mb decrease from the dropsonde 2 hours before.
• Very small, well-defined eye present by 1715 UTC
GH dropsonde at 2103 UTC reported MSLP of 972 mb, 46 m s-1 (89 kt) surface wind.
Suggests possible MSLP closer to 963 mb, a 13 mb decrease from the P-3 dropsonde 4 hours before.
9/14 2115 UTC
1st GH “Eye” Drop
700800
1000
600500
400
300
200
100
2nd GH Eye DropGH dropsonde at 0031 UTC reported MSLP of 967 mb, 44 m s-1 (86 kt) surface wind.
Suggests possible MSLP closer to 958 mb, a 5 mb decrease from the GH dropsonde 3.5 hours before.
2nd GH Eye DropGH dropsonde at 0031 UTC reported MSLP of 967 mb, 44 m s-1 (86 kt) surface wind.
Suggests possible MSLP closer to 958 mb, a 5 mb decrease from the GH dropsonde 3.5 hours before.
700800
1000
600500
400
300
200
100
Edouard Appears to Undergo an ERC
9/15 0215 UTC 9/15 0415 UTC 9/15 0545 UTC
9/15 0815 UTC 9/15 1315 UTC9/15 0645 UTC
Storm Evolution and Intensity Change
CB beginsSmall eye forms
Small eye begins breakdown
Large eye begins to form
>3 hPa/h pressure fall
Is the Observed Rate of Pressure Fall Likely?
• Used HURDAT data from 1970-2013 to compute 6-h pressure changes for all named storms during mid-August to mid-October
• Here expressed as 1-h pressure change rates and shown as a function of max. wind speed at time of pressure change
• 3 hPa/h rates only observed for storms that go on to become Cat 4-5
Is the Observed Rate of Pressure Fall Likely?
• Max wind change vs min SLP change
• 25 hPa/9.5 h (2.6 hPa/h) pressure drop implies ~31 kt increase in max winds
• Storm max wind should have increased from ~72 to ~103 kt (Cat 3)• 2103Z Sep 14 sounding had 89 kt (46 m s-1)• NHC had storm as 80 kt (strong Cat 1)
Is the Observed Rate of Pressure Fall Likely?
• Max wind change vs min SLP change
• 22 hPa/9.5 h (2.3 hPa/h) pressure drop implies ~28 kt increase in max winds
• Storm max wind should have increased from ~72 to ~100 kt (Cat 3)• 2103Z Sep 14 sounding had 89 kt (46 m s-1)• NHC had storm as 80 kt (strong Cat 1)
Conclusions• P-3 and GH dropsondes were consistent with satellite indications of rapid intensification
• Several drops indicated likely central pressures in the 960’s mb
• Magnitude of pressure drop appears too intense (typical of Cat 4-5 storms and very rare)
• Do we declare that this was an unusual Cat 3 storm or re-examine the validity of the measurements?
Is there a region of ~51 m s-1 somewhere in here?
Extra slides
15 Past Storms With DP/DT≤3mb/h• Anita (1977, 5) -18mb/6h, -32mb/12h in consecutive times• Gloria (1985, 4) -24mb/6h second period of -30mb/12h• Gilbert X 2 (1988, 5) -18mb/6h, -29mb/6h, -64mb/18h • Hugo (1989, 5) -22mb/6h -39mb/12h• Opal X 2 (1995, 4) -18mb/6h, -19mb/6h in consecutive times• Edouard (1996, 4) -18mb/6h, -27mb/12h• Bret (1999, 4) -21mb/6h• Keith (2000, ) -22mb/6h• Iris (2001, 4) -25mb/6h, -38mb/12h• Ivan (2004, 5) -22mb/6h, -32mb/12h • Katrina (2005, 5)-21mb/6h• Rita X 2 (2005, 5) -21mb/6h, -23mb/6h, -58mb/18h• Felix X 2 (2007, 5) -18mb/6h, -27mb/6h, -50mb/18h• Ike X 2 (2008, 4) -23mb/6h, -21mb/6h, -54mb/18h• Igor (2010, 4) -22mb/6h, -39mb/12h, -50mb/18h
Is the Observed Rate of Pressure Fall Likely?
• Used HURDAT data from 1970-2013 to compute 6-h pressure changes for all named storms during mid-August to mid-October
• Here expressed as 1-h pressure change rates and shown as a function of max. wind speed at time of pressure change
• 3 hPa/h rates rarely observed• Generally happen for systems of hurricane strength
GH Surface Pressures and
Winds
Surface Pressure Surface Winds
Approximate RMW from 18Z P-3 LF radar image
Dual-Doppler wind analysis at 0.5 km valid 15Z
• Pressures and winds appear consistent with strong storm
• HRD Doppler analysis suggests max winds (in NE eyewall) probably were not sampled by dropsondes
Each of Last 3 Eye Drops Entered Eyewall
9/15 0041 UTC 9/15 0532 UTC
9/15 0949 UTC 9/15 1520 UTC
9/14 1126 UTC 9/14 1813 UTC 9/14 2119 UTC
9/15 0949 UTC 9/15 1158 UTC 9/15 1520 UTC
9/15 0041 UTC 9/15 0532 UTC 9/15 0641 UTC
NHC Final MSLP Time Series Compared to P-3 and GH Dropsondes
NOAA P-3 and GH MSLP Measurements
Date/Time P (mb) GPS Alt. Temp SLP Wind Speed (ms-1)
Adjusted Psfc (mb)**
P3 14/1500 983 4 983
P3 14/1707 984 80 976
GH 14/2103 970 33.23 299.24 974 89 965
GH 15/0031 966 30.00 299.54 970 86 961
GH 15/0034 975 30.60 299.45 979 56 973
GH 15/0217 974 30.80 298.89 978 56 972
GH 15/0428 970 31.10 299.42 973 84 965
GH 15/0552 971 31.40 299.30 974 68 967
**Surface pressure adjusted 1 mb for each 10 kt
Psfc derived from lowest altitude pressure measurement with GPS altitude, adjusted to surface using corresponding temperature and hypsometric Eq.
NHC Final MSLP Time Series Compared to P-3 and GH Dropsondes