the content of storage content... · 2020. 12. 27. · (mm3) 7790 1613 605 165 capacity* (min)...
TRANSCRIPT
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Coughlin Associates
© Coughlin Associates 2005 1
The Content of Storage
Tom CoughlinCoughlin Associates
www.tomcoughlin.com
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Coughlin Associates
© Coughlin Associates 2005 2
Outline
• Content Value Chain and Revenue Streams
• Storage and Entertainment Content Creation
• Applications for Consumer Electronics• Disk Drive Projections• Conclusions
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Digital Content Value Chain
Content Distribution
Content Reception
Content Creation
Content Editing
Content Archiving
•PVR/DVR/set-tops•Game Machines•Mobile Devices
•Streaming Media•VOD•PPV
•Tape•ATA Disk Arrays
•Optical Jukeboxes
•Field Editing•Studio Editing•Special Effects
•Cameras•Animation
Content Distribution
Content Reception
Content Creation
Content Editing
Content Archiving
•PVR/DVR/set-tops•Game Machines•Mobile Devices
•Streaming Media•VOD•PPV
•Tape•ATA Disk Arrays
•Optical Jukeboxes
•Field Editing•Studio Editing•Special Effects
•Cameras•Animation
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Digital Content Distribution ChainFrom Scott Kipp’s book “Broadband Entertainment.”
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Many Digital Content Revenue Streams
Formats Channel Device Applications
Cable
Telco
Satellite
Internet
CD/DVD
Broadcast
DVD Quality(MPEG-2)
TV/Set-Top Box
Internetstreaming
HDTV(MPEG-2)
Digital Cable(MPEG-2)
Real
Windows
Quicktime
MP3
PC
ConsumerElectronics
Wireless
ContentApplications& Services
DigitalCable
SVOD
VOD
Previewing
Display
Downloading
PortablePlayback
PVR
EmergingApps
DigitalRadio
From Isilon, SV 2003
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Applications for Consumer Electronics
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Storage Devices for Entertainment Reception
•Flash Memory
•Hard Disk Drives
•Optical Disks
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Two Primary CE Market Storage Niches
• Static or Fixed Appliances– Such as set top boxes, DVD
Recorders/players, DVR/PVRs, etc.
Mobile DevicesSuch as MP3 Players, Personal Video Players, Cell Phones, Still and Video Cameras, etc.
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What Will CE Devices look like in 2010?
• 2010 Portable Device (Jim Gray, Microsoft)– 100 Gips processor– 1 GB RAM– 1 TB disk– 1 Gbps network– Many form factors
• Example Mobile Communication and Intelligence Device– Stores millions of still photos, thousands of MP3 files,
hundreds of MPEG4 movies – Ubiquitous mobile and fixed communication capability (all
standard interfaces)– Carries biometric and other security features and includes
all your passwords and contacts– With appropriate sensors this can be your life recorder to
document your life (you are the entertainment)
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Blue Ray Optical Disks and Drive
By end of 2005 Blu Ray and HD-DVD Disks will be available with capacities up to 50 GB!
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200GB+Roadmap200GB+
Roadmap
0.7 0.74.7
8.54.7
15
30
20
25
5050
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
CD DVD HD-DVD Blu-ray
Single-layerDual-layerRecordable
Blu-ray Disc Delivers More Capacity
Blu-ray Disc Delivers More Capacity
5-10x Capacityof DVD
67 - 150% morecapacity than
HD-DVD
HP, 2005 Storage Visions Conference
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Optical Content Distribution TrendsHolographic Disks
Source: Telcordia 3/03
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Flash Format
42.8 x 36.4 x 3.3 mm
Size Capacities
(1) Capacities as of September 2003
45.9 x 37.0 x .76 mmSmart Media
Card
32.0 x 24.0 x 1.4 mmMultimedia
Card
32.0 x 24.0 x 2.1 mmSD (Secure Digital)
Card
32.0 x 24.0 x 2.1 mmSD Expansion
Card
20.0 x 25.0 x 1.7 mmxD Picture
CardOlypus & Fuji Digital Cameras
Palm OS Devices
50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm
Memory Stick(Standard & Magic Gate)
Sony Devices
50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm
Memory Stick Pro(Standard & Magic Gate)
Sony Devices
50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm
Sony Devices
31.0 x 20.0 x 1.6 mm
Sony Devices
Memory Duo Stick(Standard & Magic Gate)
Memory Duo Stick Pro(Standard & Magic Gate)
Compact FlashType I
Capacity (MB)3264128256512
Capacity (MB)163264128256
Capacity (MB)3264128
Capacity (MB)163264128
Capacity (MB)163264128
Standard Capacity (MB)326412825651210242048
Performance Capacity (MB)256512102420484096
Capacity (MB)64128256512
Flash Memory
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000
2001 2002 2003 2004
TB S
hipp
ed
14 formats and growing…
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Consumer Hard Disk Drive Form Factors
3.5-Inch Drives 0.85-Inch Drives
2.5-Inch Drives 1.0-Inch Drives
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HDD Quarter by Quarter Public Technology Demonstrations and
Product Announcements
y = 51.252e0.0717x
y = 14.778e0.108x
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q12000
Q22000
Q32000
Q42000
Q12001
Q22001
Q32001
Q42001
Q12002
Q22002
Q32002
Q42002
Q12003
Q22003
Q32003
Q42003
Q12004
Q22004
Q32004
Q42004
Are
al D
ensi
ty in
Gbp
si
TECHNOLOGY
PRODUCT
Expon. (TECHNOLOGY)
Expon. (PRODUCT)
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Perpendicular Recording
• Perpendicular Recording improves thermal stability of recording, thus increasing areal density
• Development of perpendicular recording systems could cause an increase in areal density growth similar to that with the introduction of the MR head in the early 1990s
• We could find areal density growth in the next few years again exceeding 60% annually
• Not all companies will convert to perpendicular recording at once, still life left in longitudinal recording
Illustration from Seagate
Toshiba announced a 1.8 inch drive with perpendicular recording technology to be available in the second quarter of 2005.
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What this means…
By 2006 or 2007 we will have 1 TB 3.5-inch Disk Drives and
20 GB 1 inch drives!
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Hitachi New DrivesMIKEY• Smallest Microdrive• Available in 2nd half 2005• Embedded version only
– PATA, CE-ATA, MMC-like• 8 – 10GB capacity• Targeting small handheld products,
including multimedia phones
SLIM• Smallest 1.8” hard drive• Single disk and 2-disk versions• 60 – 80GB capacity• Available in 2nd half 2005• Embedded version
– PATA, CE-ATA (future)• Targeting handheld audio and video products
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y = -3.7453x + 147.81
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Q498
Q199
Q299
Q399
Q499
Q100
Q200
Q300
Q400
Q101
Q201
Q301
Q401
Q102
Q202
Q302
Q402
Q103
Q203
Q303
Q403
Q104
Q204
Q304
ASP
for H
DD
Disk Drive ASP Trends(Weighted Average based on Seagate, Maxtor, and WD)
~12% Annual ASP Decline
~9% ASP Decline from Q3 ‘03 to Q3 ‘04
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The Battle for Mobile Supremacy
Flash HDD
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Mobile Storage Factors
• Size• Capacity• Price• Data Rate (BW)• Power Usage• Environmental Factors
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System Cost vs. MB
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
$1,000,000
32M
B64
MB
128M
B25
6MB
512M
B1G
B2G
B4G
B8G
B16
GB
32G
B64
GB
128G
B25
6GB
512G
B1T
B
Tota
l Cos
FlashHDD 10x10x
100x100x
Jim Handy, Semico, 2005 Storage Visions Conference
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DiskOnChip H1 vs. Mini SD vs. HDD
HDD (best case) Mini SD DiskOnChip H1 DiskOnChip H1Capacity 1.5 / 2 / 4GB
$50 to $90
No
32mm / 42.8mm
24mm / 36.4mm
3.3mm / 5mm
Yes – adds power
1000mW and up
512MB / 1GB
0 to 65°C
Risky
Cost (estimated) $27 to $42
512MB / 1GB
$25 to $40
Yes – saves cost
18mm
12mm
1.4mm
No
NOR-less enable No
20mW
Length 21.5mm
Width 20mm
Height 1.4mm
-40 to 85°C
DRAM read buffer No
Power consumption 140mW
Temp range
Excellent
-40 to 85°C
Drop test Good
Scalable
Best cost
Smallest
Best Power cons.
Rugged
Solid state vs. rotating media cost comparison (estimated):2006 – Flash is lower cost below 4GB2008 – Flash is lower cost below 8GB
M-Systems, 2005 Storage Visions Conference
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Small Hard Disk Drives—Not The Answer For Mobile Phones
36.4
42.8
24.0
32.0
20.0
21.5
15.0
11.0
Measurements in mm
Products available in 2004Based on
Cornice 2GBdimensions
Thickness (mm) 5.0 2.1 1.4 1.0
Volume(mm3)
16560516137790
Capacity* (min)
Capacity(‘04 max)
1 GB* (~$60)
5 GB (~$70)
16 MB(~$6)
256 MB* (~$25)
16 MB(~$6)
1 GB(~$70)
32 MB(~$8)
2 GB (~$140)
Power 1000 mW * 20-50 mW
Shock Risky Excellent
SanDisk, 2005 Storage Visions Conference *1MB = 1 Million Bytes
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://szksrv.isc.chubu.ac.jp/picture/computer/harddisk.GIF&imgrefurl=http://szksrv.isc.chubu.ac.jp/images.html&h=214&w=156&sz=11&tbnid=KZH5FDHAoV4J:&tbnh=100&tbnw=73&start=21&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dharddisk%26start%3D20%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26sa%3DN
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Portable Consumer Digital DevicesS
tora
ge
Req
uire
men
t
Flash implementation in CE will continue to growHDD is an excellent choice for high capacity applications
64 MB32 MB 128 MB 256 MB 512 MB 1 GB 2 GB 4 GB 8 GB 16 GB 32 GB 64 GB
Digital still camera
PDA
Mobile phone
MP3 player
MP3 jukebox
Flash HDD
Handheld Game
Camcorders
Video player
Automotive
currentfuture
With multi-functions
Game Console
Hitachi GST, 2005 Storage Visions Conference
http://www2.shopping.com/xPC-Nintendo_Gameboy_Advance_SP
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Or is it Mutual Admiration?A Mobile Storage Hierarchy
Capacity Data Rate
Flash Memory
Hard Disk Drives
Not included here: power and size or optical storage
Nobody wants to be
here!
Environmental Performance
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$/GB Advantage of HDDs Less for Smaller Drives
NAND Flash vs. Disc
1
10
100
1000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$/G
B
Flash Chip 0.85" 1.0" 0.85" 3mm Samsung Flash
OEM Nand Flash Data Point ~ $73/GB
~$24/GB
~$43/GB
~$13/GB
Market RisksNand flash pricing reductions to combat HDD entrance3.3 mm high risk due to $/GB compared to flash
Need cell phone real estate to allow 5mm HDD solutions
Source: Seagate, 2005 Storage Visions Conference
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More (or maybe less) to Come…
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CE Volume is Very Sensitive to Product Price
+
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VOLU
ME
$99 $199 $299CE PRICE
SSPL
NPZ
+
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VOLU
ME
$99 $199 $299CE PRICE
SSPL
NPZ
From Cornice, 2003
Storage Unit Price is Large Percentage of Total BOM Cost
30% MarkupHardDisk CE Device
$50.00 $65.00
30% Markup
$91.13
Retailer
Distributor
Consumer
$84.50
30% Markup
$109.85
HDDValue
HDDValue
HDDValue
HDDValue
(1.30 X 1.30 X 1.30) = 220%
$199.99/220% = $90.90 BOM Cost
$50.00/$90.90 = HDD is 55% of BOM
MSRP $199.99
Storage is a significant % of the BOM Costs for CE Devices!
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Two Extreme Poles of CE Disk Drive Integration
--Driven by Cost--Total
Integration into the
Host
Total Integration
onto the Drive
Disk Drive Becomes A ChipDisk Drive Companies
Become Contract Manufacturers for Host
Companies
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Methods of HDD CE Integration
Tomorrow
Today
Source: Pat Hanlon Brief, 2004
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Replay TV Teardown--Put it on the Drive Board?--
The four-layer mainboard supports the tuner and more than 38 integrated circuits. The mainboard also provides multiple interface connections, including VGA, digital audio, infrared and S-Video, as well as the PC connection for storing and viewing photos. While virtually all devices found in the Replay TV unit are "catalog items," the architecture is certainly unique to the DVR application. Most key ICs-including TeraLogic video processors and processor/logic components from PMC-Sierra and Xilinx-are connected to a shared PCI bus. Broadcom provides MPEG encoding functions, while a Philips device supplies video decode for external S-Video.
Portelligent Teardown Report from March 24, 2003 EE Times
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Integrate What Where?• For single drive enabled applications
perhaps integration on the drive board makes the most sense for the ultimate cost reduction
• For a multiple drive application such as network storage perhaps integration of as much electronics off the drive board as possible on the system side offers the greatest cost reduction
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Network Storage in the Home
• Driven by the growth of home “reference data” such as photographs, family videos, financial records, etc.
• Need for reliable backup and preservation of this material in the home.
• Also driven by growing home entertainment networking that will require shared storage
• Need Low Cost Options for home networking
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Familiarity with Network-Attached Storage Solutions
(Among Internet Households, Home Network Owners and Intenders, n = 817)
Never heard of39%
Heard of but not familiar29%
Familiar with but do not own29%
Own Network-Attached Storage solution
3%
The Diffusion Group, 2005 Storage Visions Conference
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Primary Type of Content to be Stored on NAS(Among Internet Households, NAS Intenders, n = 280)
Music files13%
Full-length movies8%
Home-created videos8%
Duplicates of important data38%
Family photographs33%
The Diffusion Group, 2005 Storage Visions Conference
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Network Storage PackagingStealthdrive Faceplate Assembly
Paul Cochrane, 2005 Storage Visions
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Network Storage PackagingTortured Path EMC Solutions
Paul Cochrane, 2005 Storage Visions
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Disk Drive Projections
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HDD Market Niche Projections
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Uni
ts in
thou
sand
s
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
MobileCEDesktopEnterprise ATAEnterprise
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HDD Form Factor Projections
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Uni
ts (i
n th
ousa
nds)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1 inch or less1.8 inch2.5 inch3.5 inch
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CE Drive Applications
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Uni
ts in
thou
sand
s
.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Cell PhonesAutomotiveDigital Still CameraDigital Video CameraAV PlayersPVR/DVR/STB/Home NetworkGamesOther CE
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Conclusions• Digital content creation, distribution, and Consumer
Electronics require large volumes of storage• Storage devices and requirements vary throughout the
content value chain• Choice of storage device based on several factors—
storage hierarchy• Integration of storage into consumer electronics will be a
key way to lower prices and increase market penetration of storage applications
• Content Creation and Consumer Electronics represent a fast growing opportunity for storage devices and storage systems companiesAcknowledgement: Much of the material from this presentation was created while researching the forthcoming 2005 Digital Entertainment Series Reports, For more information see www.tomcoughlin.com.
http://www.tomcoughlin.com/
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The journey of a thousand files begins with a single bit…
The Content of StorageOutlineDigital Content Value ChainDigital Content Distribution ChainFrom Scott Kipp’s book “Broadband Entertainment.”Many Digital Content Revenue StreamsApplications for Consumer ElectronicsStorage Devices for Entertainment ReceptionTwo Primary CE Market Storage NichesWhat Will CE Devices look like in 2010?Blue Ray Optical Disks and DriveOptical Content Distribution TrendsFlash MemoryConsumer Hard Disk Drive Form FactorsHDD Quarter by Quarter Public Technology Demonstrations and Product AnnouncementsPerpendicular RecordingBy 2006 or 2007 we will have 1 TB 3.5-inch Disk Drives and 20 GB 1 inch drives!Hitachi New DrivesDisk Drive ASP Trends(Weighted Average based on Seagate, Maxtor, and WD)The Battle for Mobile SupremacyMobile Storage FactorsSystem Cost vs. MBDiskOnChip H1 vs. Mini SD vs. HDDSmall Hard Disk Drives—Not The Answer For Mobile PhonesPortable Consumer Digital DevicesOr is it Mutual Admiration?A Mobile Storage HierarchyMore (or maybe less) to Come…CE Volume is Very Sensitive to Product PriceTwo Extreme Poles of CE Disk Drive Integration--Driven by Cost--Methods of HDD CE IntegrationReplay TV Teardown--Put it on the Drive Board?--Integrate What Where?Network Storage in the HomeDisk Drive ProjectionsHDD Market Niche ProjectionsHDD Form Factor ProjectionsCE Drive ApplicationsConclusionsThe journey of a thousand files begins with a single bit…