The conceptual framework

WP 8 SCENARIOS

What is needed for planning is not a set of isolated trends, but multidimensional models that interrelate social, political, even cultural, along with the economics (Tofler:, 1985).

The system approach to the project The project has to be

understood as a system in which the nine work packages are like subsystems which alone they do not mean so much, but in relation to each other they have explanatory power. In sum, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Thus, workpackages 8 and 9 have to be built based on the others.

WP9

WP8

All WP´s

Scenarios

Scenarios appear to be an attractive methodology to increase disciplinary integration and stakeholder participation, as they may facilitate an integrated discussion about river basin and national park management.

Utilizing past and present trends, scenarios attempt to see which factors might lead to likely futures.

Scenarios

Scenarios explore the space for human actions and interventions to shape the future

Scenarios provide options rather than predictions

Scenarios provide guidance to all actors and reduce uncertainty

Building scenarios

The scenarios have in common for their development :

1. The (independent) variables (current trends)

2. In relation to the IV…the Main drivers (intervening variables)

3. Livelihood and biodiversity (dependent variable) as an outcome in one given scenario.

Main elements for building scenarios

For our work…

• Current trends

• Core factors in understanding dynamic and influencing changes

• Changes that those drivers could generate on the key factor in one given scenario

• Vulnerability/or adaptation

• Livelihood and biodiversity as an outcome in one given scenario.

Independent

variables

The main drivers

What if in one given scenario

The dependent

variable

TYPE OF SCENARIOS

BUSINESS AS USUAL

FAST DEVELOPM

ENT

ISOLATION

CRISIS

Methodological tools

Using focus group in scenario building

The result…

Link to WP9…

what kind of policy needs to be formulate in order to reduce vulnerability and increase adaptation

WP 8 WP 9

FrameworkIndependent variable

Intervening variable

Explanatory factor Dependent variable

Current trends

Main drivers

What are the expected consequences or changes?

Core elements of these changes

How is the vulnerability / adaptation capabilities

Changes in livelihoods and biodiversity

(how the stakeholders will behave in one given scenario).

Expected vulnerability/or adaptation of people and ecosystems to these changes in one given scenario

Independent variable

Intervening variable

Explanatory factor Dependent variable

Current trends

Main drivers

What are the expected consequences or changes?

What factors can be decisive in changing?

How is the vulnerability / adaptation capabilities

Changes in livelihoods and biodiversity

Public investment in the basin

Dan construction

(PH Diquís)

Flooding areas Urban growth

Middle term employment growth

Population displacement

Demand for new goods and services

New productive activities

Case study reports, survey analysis and focus groups

Analytical framework

Reference

Gooch, G. 2006. How to improve informed public participation in river basin management. http://www.aquanet.eu/downloads/faroaquanet/goochparticipationwfd.pdf.

Gooch, G. 2006. Qualitative scenarios. Charter 4. In Integrated Transboundary Water Management in Theory and Practice.