the compact earth system model oscar v2.2: description and ......2 gasser et al.: description of...

Supplement of Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 271–319, 2017http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/271/2017/doi:10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017-supplement© Author(s) 2017. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

Supplement of

The compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2:description and first resultsThomas Gasser et al.

Correspondence to: Thomas Gasser ([email protected])

The copyright of individual parts of the supplement might differ from the CC-BY 3.0 licence.

2 Gasser et al.: Description of OSCAR v2.2 (Supplement)

0

5

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20

(kt

yr−

1)

HFC-23

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

HFC-32

05

1015202530354045

HFC-125

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200HFC-134a

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HFC-152a

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10HFC-227ea

0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.18

HFC-236fa

0123456

HFC-245fa

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1.5

2.0

2.5HFC-365mfc

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.35

(kt

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HFC-43-10mee

01234567

SF6

0.00

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0.15

0.20

0.25NF3

02468

10121416

CF4

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0

C2F6

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(kt

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C3F8

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0.005

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0.020

0.025c-C4F8

0.000

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0.020

0.025C4F10

0E-610E-620E-630E-640E-650E-660E-6

C5F12

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2

C6F14

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.40

(kt

yr−

1)

C7F16

050

100150200250300350400

CFC-11

0100200300400500600

CFC-12

050

100150200250300

CFC-113

02468

1012141618

CFC-114

02468

101214

(kt

yr−

1)

CFC-115

020406080

100120140160

CCl4

0100200300400500600700

CH3CCl3

050

100150200250300350

HCFC-22

0102030405060

HCFC-141b

05

10152025303540

(kt

yr−

1)

HCFC-142b

02468

1012

Halon-1211

1890 1930 1970 20100.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

Halon-1202

1890 1930 1970 20100123456

Halon-1301

1890 1930 1970 20100.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8

Halon-2402

1890 1930 1970 20100

102030405060

(kt

yr−

1)

CH3Br

1890 1930 1970 20100

50100150200250300350400450

CH3Cl

Figure S1. Time-series of the anthropogenic emissions of halogenated compounds used as inputs of OSCAR (section 2.2.1).

Gasser et al.: Description of OSCAR v2.2 (Supplement) 3

1210

8642024

δAi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 1, b= 4

2101234567 i= 1, b= 5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

δHi,b (

MtC

yr−

1)

i= 1, b= 1

0

δSi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 1, b= 4

0

i= 1, b= 5

202468

10121416

δAi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 2, b= 4

4202468

1012 i= 2, b= 5

020406080

100120140160180

δHi,b (

MtC

yr−

1)

i= 2, b= 1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

δSi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 2, b= 4

0123456789 i= 2, b= 5

2.52.01.51.00.50.00.51.0

δAi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 3, b= 4

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.5i= 3, b= 5

020406080

100120140

δHi,b (

MtC

yr−

1)

i= 3, b= 1

0

δSi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 3, b= 4

0

i= 3, b= 5

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

δAi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 4, b= 4

20

15

10

5

0

5 i= 4, b= 5

02468

101214

δHi,b (

MtC

yr−

1)

i= 4, b= 1

0

δSi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 4, b= 4

0

i= 4, b= 5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

δAi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 5, b= 4

202468

1012 i= 5, b= 5

020406080

100120140160180

δHi,b (

MtC

yr−

1)

i= 5, b= 1

0

2

4

6

8

10

δSi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 5, b= 4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 i= 5, b= 5

5432101234

δAi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 6, b= 4

15

10

5

0

5

10 i= 6, b= 5

020406080

100120140

δHi,b (

MtC

yr−

1)

i= 6, b= 1

0

δSi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 6, b= 4

0

i= 6, b= 5

1086420246

δAi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 7, b= 4

20

15

10

5

0

5

10 i= 7, b= 5

020406080

100120140

δHi,b (

MtC

yr−

1)

i= 7, b= 1

0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.14

δSi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 7, b= 4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6 i= 7, b= 5

2

1

0

1

2

3

4

δAi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 8, b= 4

0.20.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7 i= 8, b= 5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

δHi,b (

MtC

yr−

1)

i= 8, b= 1

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

δSi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 8, b= 4

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8 i= 8, b= 5

1890 1930 1970 20105432101234

δAi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 9, b= 4

1890 1930 1970 201010

5

0

5

10 i= 9, b= 5

1890 1930 1970 201005

101520253035

δHi,b (

MtC

yr−

1)

i= 9, b= 1

1890 1930 1970 20100.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

δSi,b (

Mha y

r−1)

i= 9, b= 4

1890 1930 1970 20100.000

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.010

0.012 i= 9, b= 5

Figure S2. Time-series of the LULCC drivers used as inputs of OSCAR (section 2.2.2). The first column shows the change in cropland area;the second that in pasture area; the third shows harvest in forest; the fourth shifting cultivation for cropland; the fifth shifting cultivation forpastures. The rows correspond to the nine regions of figure S4.


1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

∆TS (K)

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1+

∆M

LD/M

LD

0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC

R2 = 0.98

2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

∆TS (K)

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1IPSL-CM5A-LR

R2 = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

∆TS (K)

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2MPI-ESM-LR

R2 = 0.99

Figure S3. Fits of the parameters of the mixed layer depth of the surface ocean (section 2.3.1).


North AmericaSouth & Central AmericaWestern Europe

North Africa & Middle-EastTropical AfricaFormer Soviet Union

China regionSouth & South-East AsiaPacific Developed region

Figure S4. Biospheric regions (i.e. the i-axis defined in section 2.3.2) used in this paper: (i= 1) North America; (i= 2) South & CentralAmerica; (i= 3) Western Europe; (i= 4) North Africa & Middle-East; (i= 5) Tropical Africa; (i= 6) Former Soviet Union; (i= 7) Chinaregion; (i= 8) South & South-East Asia; (i= 9) Pacific Developed region.


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 1

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.97R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.92 / 0.96

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 2

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.98

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 3

R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.97R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.98

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 4

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.96 / 0.99 / 0.98

1.0

1.5

2.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 5

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.99

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 6

R2(log) = 0.99 / 1.0 / 0.99 / 1.0R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 1.0 / 0.99 / 0.99

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 7

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.98

1pctCO2 esmFixClim1 esmFdbk0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 8

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.97R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.97


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 9

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.99 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.92 / 0.98 / 0.97

Figure S5. Fits of the parameters of the NPP response based on the "BCC-CSM1.1" model (section 2.3.2). Each panel is one of the nineregions (see figure S4), and the different colors are for the biomes: forest (green), mixed shrubland and grassland (blue), cropland (yellow),and pasture (cyan). The R2 are given in this exact order, for the logarithmic (log) and hyperbolic (hyp) fits. Decadal running means areshown; and the fits are the dotted and plain black lines, for the logarithmic and hyperbolic formulations respectively.


0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 1

R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.88 / 0.92 / 0.86R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.88 / 0.89 / 0.85

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25CESM1-BGC | i= 2

R2(log) = 0.95 / 0.97 / 0.95 / 0.98R2(hyp) = 0.94 / 0.93 / 0.93 / 0.94

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 3

R2(log) = 0.96 / 0.94 / 0.93 / 0.94R2(hyp) = 0.94 / 0.92 / 0.89 / 0.92

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4CESM1-BGC | i= 4

R2(log) = 0.95 / 0.93 / 0.9 / 0.93R2(hyp) = 0.93 / 0.91 / 0.88 / 0.91

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 5

R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.94 / 0.88 / 0.93R2(hyp) = 0.96 / 0.94 / 0.85 / 0.93

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6CESM1-BGC | i= 6

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.92 / 0.95R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.89 / 0.94

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 7

R2(log) = 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.84 / 0.97R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.96 / 0.82 / 0.97


0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5CESM1-BGC | i= 8

R2(log) = 0.95 / 0.86 / 0.82 / 0.87R2(hyp) = 0.94 / 0.84 / 0.82 / 0.86

1pctCO2 esmFixClim1 esmFdbk

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 9

R2(log) = 0.96 / 0.68 / 0.96 / 0.73R2(hyp) = 0.96 / 0.65 / 0.97 / 0.7

Figure S6. Same as figure S5 but for the "CESM1-BGC" model.


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

CanESM2 | i= 1

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.82 / 0.97 / 0.84R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.81 / 0.98 / 0.82

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0CanESM2 | i= 2

R2(log) = 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.99 / 0.97R2(hyp) = 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.99 / 0.97

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

CanESM2 | i= 3

R2(log) = 0.93 / 0.96 / 0.96 / 0.96R2(hyp) = 0.94 / 0.96 / 0.96 / 0.96

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

CanESM2 | i= 4

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

CanESM2 | i= 5

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 1.0 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.98

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6CanESM2 | i= 6

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.94 / 0.95 / 0.94R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.92 / 0.96 / 0.92

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

CanESM2 | i= 7

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.96R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.95 / 0.98 / 0.95


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0CanESM2 | i= 8

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

CanESM2 | i= 9

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.97R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.97

Figure S7. Same as figure S5 but for the "CanESM2" model.


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

HadGEM2-ES | i= 1

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.39 / 0.47R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.39 / 0.47

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5HadGEM2-ES | i= 2

R2(log) = 1.0 / 0.75 / -0.08 / -0.07R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.75 / -0.13 / -0.12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

HadGEM2-ES | i= 3

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.86 / 0.2 / 0.24R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.86 / 0.19 / 0.23

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.56 / 0.05 / 0.05R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.55 / 0.07 / 0.07

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

HadGEM2-ES | i= 5

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.92 / 0.3 / 0.29R2(hyp) = 1.0 / 0.91 / 0.32 / 0.32

0

1

2

3

4

5

6HadGEM2-ES | i= 6

R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.67 / 0.7R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.67 / 0.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

HadGEM2-ES | i= 7

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.84 / -0.06 / -0.05R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.83 / -0.08 / -0.07


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


R2(log) = 1.0 / 0.6 / -0.11 / -0.12R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.57 / -0.11 / -0.12


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

HadGEM2-ES | i= 9

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.6 / 0.27 / 0.32R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.6 / 0.29 / 0.35

Figure S8. Same as figure S5 but for the "HadGEM2-ES" model.


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 1

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.98R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 2

R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.95 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 3

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99 0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 4

R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.97R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.97

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 5

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.95 / 0.96R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.96

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0


R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.98R2(hyp) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.98

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 7

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0


R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.79 / 0.97R2(hyp) = 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.82 / 0.96


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 9

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.94 / 0.98 / 0.92R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.94 / 0.98 / 0.92

Figure S9. Same as figure S5 but for the "IPSL-CM5A-LR" model.


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 1

R2(log) = 0.91 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.97R2(hyp) = 0.94 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.97

1.0

1.5

2.0

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 2

R2(log) = 0.98 / 1.0 / 0.98 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.98

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 3

R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.98R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5MPI-ESM-LR | i= 4

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.93 / 0.98 / 0.96R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.92 / 0.98 / 0.96

1.0

1.5

2.0

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 5

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.99

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.98R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.98

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 7

R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.99


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.92R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.93


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 9

R2(log) = 0.99 / 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.96R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.96

Figure S10. Same as figure S5 but for the "MPI-ESM-LR" model.


0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 1

R2(log) = 0.96 / 0.87 / 0.95 / 0.82R2(hyp) = 0.96 / 0.86 / 0.95 / 0.8

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4NorESM1-ME | i= 2

R2(log) = 0.95 / 0.95 / 0.92 / 0.96R2(hyp) = 0.95 / 0.93 / 0.9 / 0.94

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 3

R2(log) = 0.96 / 0.95 / 0.91 / 0.95R2(hyp) = 0.94 / 0.92 / 0.86 / 0.92

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3


R2(log) = 0.96 / 0.91 / 0.87 / 0.91R2(hyp) = 0.95 / 0.9 / 0.86 / 0.89

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 5

R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.94 / 0.96

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6


R2(log) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.85 / 0.95R2(hyp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.87 / 0.95

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 7

R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.9 / 0.99R2(hyp) = 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.9 / 0.99


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4


R2(log) = 0.97 / 0.94 / 0.89 / 0.94R2(hyp) = 0.96 / 0.93 / 0.9 / 0.94


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆nppi,b/n

pp

0 (−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 9

R2(log) = 0.96 / 0.87 / 0.95 / 0.88R2(hyp) = 0.96 / 0.86 / 0.96 / 0.87

Figure S11. Same as figure S5 but for the "NorESM1-ME" model.


0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 1

R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.9 / 0.97R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.94 / 0.98

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 2

R2(exp) = 0.95 / 0.94 / 0.9 / 0.9R2(gauss) = 0.96 / 0.95 / 0.91 / 0.92

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 3

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.98R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 4

R2(exp) = 0.95 / 0.94 / 0.93 / 0.9R2(gauss) = 0.95 / 0.95 / 0.94 / 0.91

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 5

R2(exp) = 0.96 / 0.85 / 0.88 / 0.86R2(gauss) = 0.96 / 0.87 / 0.89 / 0.87

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 6

R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.98R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 7

R2(exp) = 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.96 / 0.97R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98


1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 8

R2(exp) = 0.96 / 0.9 / 0.8 / 0.9R2(gauss) = 0.96 / 0.9 / 0.83 / 0.9


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 9

R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.85 / 0.95 / 0.76R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.87 / 0.95 / 0.79

Figure S12. Fits of the parameters of the heterotrophic respiration response based on the "BCC-CSM1.1" model (section 2.3.2). Each panelis one of the nine regions (see figure S4), and the different colors are for the biomes: forest (green), mixed shrubland and grassland (blue),cropland (yellow), and pasture (cyan). The R2 are given in this exact order, for the exponential (exp) and Gaussian (gauss) fits. Decadalrunning means are shown; and the fits are the dotted and plain black lines, for the exponential and Gaussian formulations respectively.


0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 1

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20


R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 3

R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.98R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.98

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15


R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.96R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.96

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 5

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.95 / 0.98R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.95 / 0.98

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6CESM1-BGC | i= 6

R2(exp) = 1.0 / 1.0 / 0.97 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 1.0 / 1.0 / 0.97 / 0.99

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 7

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.96 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.96 / 0.99


1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25


R2(exp) = 0.96 / 0.96 / 0.95 / 0.95R2(gauss) = 0.96 / 0.96 / 0.95 / 0.95


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 9

R2(exp) = 0.97 / 0.72 / 0.98 / 0.75R2(gauss) = 0.97 / 0.73 / 0.98 / 0.75

Figure S13. Same as figure S12 but for the "CESM1-BGC" model.


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

CanESM2 | i= 1

R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.85 / 0.91 / 0.98R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.91 / 0.93 / 0.99

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4CanESM2 | i= 2

R2(exp) = 0.89 / 0.95 / 0.95 / 0.94R2(gauss) = 0.89 / 0.95 / 0.95 / 0.95

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

CanESM2 | i= 3

R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7CanESM2 | i= 4

R2(exp) = 0.93 / 0.87 / 0.92 / 0.88R2(gauss) = 0.94 / 0.9 / 0.92 / 0.91

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

CanESM2 | i= 5

R2(exp) = 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.97R2(gauss) = 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.97

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0CanESM2 | i= 6

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

CanESM2 | i= 7

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.95 / 0.97R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.96 / 0.98


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6CanESM2 | i= 8

R2(exp) = 0.93 / 0.98 / 0.79 / 0.98R2(gauss) = 0.94 / 0.99 / 0.82 / 0.99


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

CanESM2 | i= 9

R2(exp) = 0.97 / 0.96 / 0.98 / 0.96R2(gauss) = 0.97 / 0.96 / 0.98 / 0.96

Figure S14. Same as figure S12 but for the "CanESM2" model.


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

HadGEM2-ES | i= 1

R2(exp) = 0.96 / 0.98 / 0.66 / 0.63R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.76 / 0.71

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2


R2(exp) = 0.93 / 0.61 / 0.2 / 0.15R2(gauss) = 0.93 / 0.61 / 0.21 / 0.16

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

HadGEM2-ES | i= 3

R2(exp) = 0.96 / 0.81 / -0.07 / -0.13R2(gauss) = 0.97 / 0.87 / -0.02 / -0.11

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


R2(exp) = 0.96 / 0.71 / 0.43 / 0.44R2(gauss) = 0.96 / 0.71 / 0.43 / 0.44

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

HadGEM2-ES | i= 5

R2(exp) = 0.94 / 0.93 / 0.25 / 0.24R2(gauss) = 0.94 / 0.93 / 0.25 / 0.24

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


R2(exp) = 0.96 / 0.98 / -0.42 / -0.32R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.99 / -0.29 / 0.23

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

HadGEM2-ES | i= 7

R2(exp) = 0.91 / 0.74 / -0.06 / -0.04R2(gauss) = 0.95 / 0.87 / 0.11 / 0.1


1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0


R2(exp) = 0.91 / 0.86 / 0.34 / 0.35R2(gauss) = 0.91 / 0.87 / 0.34 / 0.35


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

HadGEM2-ES | i= 9

R2(exp) = 0.95 / 0.5 / 0.08 / 0.11R2(gauss) = 0.95 / 0.5 / 0.07 / 0.1

Figure S15. Same as figure S12 but for the "HadGEM2-ES" model.


0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 1

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 1.0 / 0.99 / 1.0R2(gauss) = 1.0 / 1.0 / 0.99 / 1.0

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4


R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 3

R2(exp) = 1.0 / 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 1.0 / 1.0 / 0.99 / 1.0

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4


R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.96 / 0.97R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.97 / 0.97

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 5

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.99

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6


R2(exp) = 1.0 / 1.0 / 0.99 / 1.0R2(gauss) = 1.0 / 1.0 / 0.99 / 1.0

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 7

R2(exp) = 1.0 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 1.0 / 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.99


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6


R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 9

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.93 / 0.99 / 0.93R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.93 / 0.99 / 0.93



0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 1

R2(exp) = 0.68 / 0.78 / 0.89 / 0.56R2(gauss) = 0.69 / 0.78 / 0.91 / 0.62

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7


R2(exp) = 0.94 / 0.84 / 0.92 / 0.92R2(gauss) = 0.94 / 0.91 / 0.92 / 0.94

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 3

R2(exp) = 0.84 / 0.21 / 0.97 / 0.88R2(gauss) = 0.84 / 0.61 / 0.97 / 0.9

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6


R2(exp) = 0.82 / 0.94 / 0.91 / 0.92R2(gauss) = 0.83 / 0.94 / 0.91 / 0.92

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 5

R2(exp) = 0.94 / 0.85 / 0.89 / 0.98R2(gauss) = 0.95 / 0.81 / 0.89 / 0.98

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8


R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.83 / 0.88 / 0.93R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.92 / 0.89 / 0.93

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 7

R2(exp) = 0.89 / 0.48 / 0.93 / 0.87R2(gauss) = 0.89 / 0.83 / 0.94 / 0.87


1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6


R2(exp) = 0.87 / 0.8 / 0.83 / 0.87R2(gauss) = 0.88 / 0.83 / 0.83 / 0.87


0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 9

R2(exp) = 0.84 / 0.85 / 0.95 / 0.85R2(gauss) = 0.86 / 0.85 / 0.95 / 0.87



0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 1

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.94R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.94

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20


R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.98R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.96 / 0.98

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 3

R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.94 / 0.97R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.94 / 0.97

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10


R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.96R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.98 / 0.97

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 5

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.98 / 0.99

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5


R2(exp) = 1.0 / 0.99 / 0.96 / 0.98R2(gauss) = 1.0 / 0.99 / 0.96 / 0.98

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 7

R2(exp) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 0.99R2(gauss) = 0.99 / 0.99 / 0.97 / 1.0


1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25


R2(exp) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98R2(gauss) = 0.98 / 0.98 / 0.97 / 0.98


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1+

∆rh

i,b/r

h0 (−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 9

R2(exp) = 0.97 / 0.87 / 0.98 / 0.87R2(gauss) = 0.97 / 0.87 / 0.98 / 0.87



0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 1

R2 = 0.9 / 0.57 / 0.8 / 0.47

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0CESM1-BGC | i= 2

R2 = 0.94 / 0.52 / 0.94 / 0.46

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 3

R2 = 0.88 / 0.62 / 0.83 / 0.49

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0CESM1-BGC | i= 4

R2 = 0.61 / 0.63 / 0.38 / 0.59

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 5

R2 = 0.73 / 0.85 / 0.55 / 0.13

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

CESM1-BGC | i= 6

R2 = 0.84 / 0.83 / 0.38 / 0.72

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 7

R2 = 0.87 / 0.86 / 0.76 / 0.86


0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8CESM1-BGC | i= 8

R2 = 0.9 / 0.87 / 0.3 / 0.72


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

CESM1-BGC | i= 9

R2 = 0.71 / 0.54 / 0.78 / 0.54

Figure S19. Fits of the parameters of the wildfire intensity response based on the "CESM1-BGC" model (section 2.3.2). Each panel is oneof the nine regions (see figure S4), and the different colors are for the biomes: forest (green), mixed shrubland and grassland (blue), cropland(yellow), and pasture (cyan). The R2 are given in this exact order. Decadal running means are shown; and the fits are the plain black lines.


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 1

R2 = 0.74 / 0.87 / 0.68 / 0.79

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


R2 = 0.84 / 0.79 / 0.62 / 0.82

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 3

R2 = 0.84 / 0.82 / 0.75 / 0.8

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


R2 = 0.75 / 0.81 / 0.8 / 0.75

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 5

R2 = 0.64 / 0.08 / 0.19 / 0.33

0

2

4

6

8

10

12IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 6

R2 = 0.83 / 0.9 / 0.66 / 0.84

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 7

R2 = 0.73 / 0.78 / 0.75 / 0.75


0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8


R2 = 0.65 / 0.64 / 0.32 / 0.26


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 9

R2 = 0.22 / 0.21 / 0.52 / 0.13



0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 1

R2 = 0.86 / 0.8 / 0.83 / 0.85

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2


R2 = 0.94 / 0.92 / 0.75 / 0.95

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 3

R2 = 0.85 / 0.87 / 0.91 / 0.93

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


R2 = 0.68 / 0.55 / 0.95 / 0.94

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 5

R2 = 0.93 / 0.94 / 0.94 / 0.880.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


R2 = 0.63 / 0.97 / 0.86 / 0.96

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 7

R2 = 0.88 / 0.97 / 0.51 / 0.86


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6


R2 = 0.68 / 0.88 / 0.13 / 0.82


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 9

R2 = 0.77 / 0.57 / 0.04 / 0.7



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 1

R2 = 0.91 / 0.42 / 0.81 / 0.63

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


R2 = 0.83 / 0.03 / 0.85 / 0.19

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 3

R2 = 0.92 / 0.78 / 0.92 / 0.62

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


R2 = 0.45 / 0.58 / 0.22 / 0.61

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 5

R2 = 0.62 / 0.55 / 0.66 / 0.09

1.0

1.5

2.0

NorESM1-ME | i= 6

R2 = 0.9 / 0.68 / 0.62 / 0.35

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 7

R2 = 0.83 / 0.74 / 0.6 / 0.76


0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8


R2 = 0.82 / 0.59 / 0.38 / 0.52


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1+

∆ei,b

fire/e

fire,0

(−

)

NorESM1-ME | i= 9

R2 = 0.69 / 0.51 / 0.69 / 0.5



0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1+

∆ag

e/ag

e 0 (−

)

AMTRAC3

R2 = 0.9

0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.50.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05CAM3.5

R2 = 0.93

1 0 1 2 3 4 50.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05CMAM

R2 = 0.99

0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.00.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1+

∆ag

e/ag

e 0 (−

)

Niwa-SOCOL

R2 = 0.78

0.50.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

∆TG (K)

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2SOCOL

R2 = 0.78

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1ULAQ

R2 = 0.76

0.50.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

∆TG (K)

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1+

∆ag

e/ag

e 0 (−

)

UMUKCA-UCAM

R2 = 0.92

Figure S23. Fits of the parameter of the age of stratospheric air dependency on climate change (section 2.6.1).


0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.51.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.2

∆O

3t (

DU

)

CESM-CAM-superfast

R2 = 0.46

0 1 2 3 4 5 60.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8GFDL-AM3

R2 = 0.27

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.52.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0GISS-E2-R

R2 = -0.77

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 72.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.5

∆O

3t (

DU

)

MIROC-CHEM

R2 = 0.69

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.52.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0MOCAGE

R2 = 1.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

∆TG (K)

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0NCAR-CAM3.5

R2 = 0.98

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

∆O

3t (

DU

)

STOC-HadAM3

R2 = 0.87

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0.20.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7

UM-CAM

R2 = 0.68

Figure S24. Fits of the parameter of the tropospheric ozone response to climate change (section 2.8.1).


0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

∆SO

4 (T

g)

CSIRO-Mk3.6.0

R2 = 0.99

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4GFDL-AM3

R2 = 0.93

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

∆SO

4 (T

g)

GISS-E2-R

R2 = 0.98

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0MIROC-CHEM

R2 = 0.9

Figure S25. Fits of the parameters for the atmospheric burden of sulphated aerosols (section 2.9.1). The historical simulation from CMIP5is in grey, while the RCP2.6 is in green, RCP4.5 in blue, RCP6.0 in magenta, and RCP8.5 in red.


0.4

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

∆P

OA

(Tg)

CSIRO-Mk3.6.0

R2 = 0.94

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8GFDL-AM3

R2 = 0.88

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

∆P

OA

(Tg)

GISS-E2-R

R2 = 0.96

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8MIROC-CHEM

R2 = 0.97

Figure S26. Same as figure S25 but for primary organic aerosols.


0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

∆B

C (

Tg)

CSIRO-Mk3.6.0

R2 = 0.99

0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10GFDL-AM3

R2 = 0.98

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

∆B

C (

Tg)

GISS-E2-R

R2 = 0.98

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10MIROC-CHEM

R2 = 0.97

Figure S27. Same as figure S25 but for black carbon aerosols.


a b c d e f g h i j0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

∆N

O3

(Tg)

Bellouin et al. (2011)

R2 = 0.87

a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16Hauglustaine et al. (2014)

R2 = 0.8

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

∆SO

A (

Tg)

GFDL-AM3

R2 = 0.97

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30GISS-E2-R

R2 = 0.89

Figure S28. Same as figure S25 but for nitrated aerosols (top panels) and secondary organic aerosols (bottom panels). In the case nitratedaerosols, each letter on the x-axis corresponds to a simulation from the given reference.


0 40 80 120 1600

1

2

3

4

5

6

∆TG (

K)

ACCESS1.0

R2 = 0.97

0 40 80 120 1600

1

2

3

4

5

6ACCESS1.3

R2 = 0.97

0 40 80 120 1600

1

2

3

4

5

6BCC-CSM1.1

R2 = 0.96

0 40 80 120 1600

1

2

3

4

5

6BCC-CSM1.1m

R2 = 0.94

0 40 80 120 16001234567

CanESM2

R2 = 0.96

0 40 80 120 1600

1

2

3

4

5

∆TG (

K)

CCSM4

R2 = 0.94

0 40 80 120 1600

1

2

3

4

5

6CNRM-CM5

R2 = 0.93

0 40 80 1200

1

2

3

4

5

6CNRM-CM5.2

R2 = 0.94

0 40 80 120 16001234567

CSIRO-Mk3.6.0

R2 = 0.97

0 40 80 120 16001234567

GFDL-CM3

R2 = 0.98

0 100 200 3000.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

∆TG (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G

R2 = 0.93

0 100 200 3000

1

2

3

4

5GFDL-ESM2M

R2 = 0.96

0 40 80 120 1600.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

GISS-E2-H

R2 = 0.94

0 40 80 120 1600.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

GISS-E2-R

R2 = 0.88

0 40 80 120 16001234567

HadGEM2-ES

R2 = 0.96

0 100 200 30001234567

∆TG (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR

R2 = 0.93

0 40 80 12001234567

IPSL-CM5A-MR

R2 = 0.95

0 40 80 120 1600

1

2

3

4

5IPSL-CM5B-LR

R2 = 0.94

0 40 80 120 1600

1

2

3

4

5MIROC5

R2 = 0.84

0 40 80 120 16001234567

MIROC-ESM

R2 = 0.95

0 40 80 120 160

(yr)

01234567

∆TG (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR

R2 = 0.94

0 40 80 120 160

(yr)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6MPI-ESM-MR

R2 = 0.93

0 40 80 120 160

(yr)

01234567

MPI-ESM-P

R2 = 0.92

0 40 80 120 160

(yr)

0

1

2

3

4

5MRI-CGCM3

R2 = 0.93

0 40 80 120 160

(yr)

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

NorESM1-M

R2 = 0.94

Figure S29. Fits of the parameters of the global surface temperature response (section 2.11.2).


1 0 1 2 3 4 5 60.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

∆TS (

K)

ACCESS1.0

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 60.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

ACCESS1.3

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 60.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

BCC-CSM1.1

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 60.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

BCC-CSM1.1m

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 71

0

1

2

3

4

5CanESM2

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 50.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

∆TS (

K)

CCSM4

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 60.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

CNRM-CM5

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 60.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

CNRM-CM5.2

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 71

0

1

2

3

4

5CSIRO-Mk3.6.0

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 71

0

1

2

3

4

5GFDL-CM3

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 50.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

∆TS (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 50.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

GFDL-ESM2M

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 50.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0

GISS-E2-H

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

0 1 2 3 40.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5GISS-E2-R

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 71

0

1

2

3

4

5HadGEM2-ES

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 71

0

1

2

3

4

5

∆TS (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 71

0

1

2

3

4

5IPSL-CM5A-MR

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 50.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

IPSL-CM5B-LR

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 50.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

MIROC5

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 710123456

MIROC-ESM

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

∆TS (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

1

0

1

2

3

4

5MPI-ESM-MR

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

1

0

1

2

3

4

5MPI-ESM-P

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

MRI-CGCM3

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0

NorESM1-M

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

Figure S30. Fits of the parameter of the pattern scaling for sea surface temperature (section 2.11.2). The grey, green, blue, magenta and redpoints are from the historical, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 simulations, respecitvely; the yellow ones are from the "abrupt4xCO2"simulation. The R2 are given for fits made over the quadrupled CO2 experiment (4x) or the combined historical and RCPs (H) – if these RCPsimulations were conducted. The fits are the dotted and plain black lines, for the quadrupled CO2 experiment and combined historical andRCPs respectively.


1 0 1 2 3 4 5 62

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

ACCESS1.0 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

ACCESS1.3 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.9R2(H) = 0.98

0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

BCC-CSM1.1m | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.79R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 72

0

2

4

6

8

10CanESM2 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

CCSM4 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.88R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10CNRM-CM5 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.75R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

CNRM-CM5.2 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.76R2(H) = 0.53

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.92R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6202468

1012

GFDL-CM3 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 51012345678

∆TL (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 51012345678

GFDL-ESM2M | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.87R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 51012345678

GISS-E2-H | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.97

0 1 2 3101234567

GISS-E2-R | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.54R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7202468

1012

HadGEM2-ES | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 72

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10IPSL-CM5A-MR | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

IPSL-CM5B-LR | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.78R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 52

0

2

4

6

8

10MIROC5 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7202468

1012

MIROC-ESM | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.89R2(H) = 0.27

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.94R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

2

0

2

4

6

8

10MPI-ESM-MR | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.9R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

2

0

2

4

6

8

10MPI-ESM-P | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.89

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

101234567

MRI-CGCM3 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

10NorESM1-M | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.97

Figure S31. Same as figure S30 but for local surface temperature in region i= 1, and except that decadal running means are shown.


1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

ACCESS1.0 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

ACCESS1.3 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.99

0 1 2 3 4 501234567

BCC-CSM1.1m | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

10CanESM2 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

CCSM4 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.92R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5.2 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.89

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

GFDL-CM3 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.84R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

GFDL-ESM2M | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.9R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 510123456

GISS-E2-H | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.74R2(H) = 0.99

0 1 2 310123456

GISS-E2-R | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.5R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

10HadGEM2-ES | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

IPSL-CM5A-MR | i= 2

R2(4x) = 1.0R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 510123456

IPSL-CM5B-LR | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 510123456

MIROC5 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.88R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

MIROC-ESM | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.92

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

MPI-ESM-MR | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

MPI-ESM-P | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

10123456

MRI-CGCM3 | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

10123456

NorESM1-M | i= 2

R2(4x) = 0.87R2(H) = 0.99



1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

ACCESS1.0 | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.88R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

ACCESS1.3 | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.91

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 62

0

2

4

6

8BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.82R2(H) = 0.95

0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

BCC-CSM1.1m | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.93

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

CanESM2 | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.9R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

CCSM4 | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.44R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5 | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.64R2(H) = 0.84

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5.2 | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.19R2(H) = 0.01

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678


R2(4x) = 0.94R2(H) = 0.92

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 62

0

2

4

6

8

GFDL-CM3 | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.89R2(H) = 0.93

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

GFDL-ESM2M | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.87R2(H) = 0.94

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

GISS-E2-H | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.91

0 1 2 310123456

GISS-E2-R | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.39R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 72

0

2

4

6

8

10HadGEM2-ES | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.87R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.84R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

IPSL-CM5A-MR | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

IPSL-CM5B-LR | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.82R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

MIROC5 | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.02R2(H) = 0.78

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

MIROC-ESM | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.73R2(H) = -1.61

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.69R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

1012345678

MPI-ESM-MR | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.1R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

1012345678

MPI-ESM-P | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.65R2(H) = 0.73

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

101234567

MRI-CGCM3 | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.9R2(H) = 0.94

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

101234567

NorESM1-M | i= 3

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.95



1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

ACCESS1.0 | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.88R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

ACCESS1.3 | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.98

0 1 2 3 4 5012345678

BCC-CSM1.1m | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.9R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

CanESM2 | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.92R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

CCSM4 | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.71R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

CNRM-CM5 | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.81R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

CNRM-CM5.2 | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.56

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8


R2(4x) = 0.8R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

GFDL-CM3 | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.89R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.9R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 51012345678

GFDL-ESM2M | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.86R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

GISS-E2-H | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.88R2(H) = 0.97

0 1 2 3101234567

GISS-E2-R | i= 4

R2(4x) = -1.44R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

10HadGEM2-ES | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

IPSL-CM5A-MR | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

IPSL-CM5B-LR | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.31R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 51012345678

MIROC5 | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.83R2(H) = 0.94

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

10MIROC-ESM | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.62

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.89R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

MPI-ESM-MR | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.77R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

MPI-ESM-P | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.82R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

101234567

MRI-CGCM3 | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.79R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

101234567

NorESM1-M | i= 4

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.99



1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

ACCESS1.0 | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.94R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

ACCESS1.3 | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.94R2(H) = 0.99

0 1 2 3 4 5012345678

BCC-CSM1.1m | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

CanESM2 | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

CCSM4 | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.92R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5 | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5.2 | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.84

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8


R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

GFDL-CM3 | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.92R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 51012345678

GFDL-ESM2M | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.86R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

GISS-E2-H | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.72R2(H) = 0.99

0 1 2 3101234567

GISS-E2-R | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.4R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

HadGEM2-ES | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

IPSL-CM5A-MR | i= 5

R2(4x) = 1.0R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

IPSL-CM5B-LR | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.89R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

MIROC5 | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

MIROC-ESM | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.94

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

MPI-ESM-MR | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

10MPI-ESM-P | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.94R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

101234567

MRI-CGCM3 | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

10123456

NorESM1-M | i= 5

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.99



1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6202468

1012

∆TL (

K)

ACCESS1.0 | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.94R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 62

0

2

4

6

8

10ACCESS1.3 | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.94R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.69R2(H) = 0.99

0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

10BCC-CSM1.1m | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.81R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 72

0

2

4

6

8

10CanESM2 | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.92

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

CCSM4 | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.4R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10CNRM-CM5 | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.45R2(H) = 0.9

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 62

0

2

4

6

8

10CNRM-CM5.2 | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.57R2(H) = 0.37

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8


R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6202468

1012

GFDL-CM3 | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.87R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.65R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

GFDL-ESM2M | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.76R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

GISS-E2-H | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.92R2(H) = 0.94

0 1 2 3101234567

GISS-E2-R | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.71R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7202468

101214

HadGEM2-ES | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 72

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.83R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 62

0

2

4

6

8


R2(4x) = 0.79R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

10IPSL-CM5B-LR | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.82R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

2

4

6

8

10MIROC5 | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.59R2(H) = 0.91

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7202468

1012

MIROC-ESM | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.59R2(H) = -0.16

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.91R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

2

0

2

4

6

8

10MPI-ESM-MR | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.77R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

2

0

2

4

6

8

10MPI-ESM-P | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.68R2(H) = 0.86

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

MRI-CGCM3 | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

2

0

2

4

6

8

10NorESM1-M | i= 6

R2(4x) = 0.91R2(H) = 0.96



1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

ACCESS1.0 | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.76R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

ACCESS1.3 | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.66R2(H) = 0.98

0 1 2 3 4 51012345678

BCC-CSM1.1m | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.87R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

CanESM2 | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.91R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 51012345678

∆TL (

K)

CCSM4 | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.57R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5 | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.6R2(H) = 0.92

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5.2 | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.81R2(H) = 0.32

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8


R2(4x) = 0.74R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 62

0

2

4

6

8

GFDL-CM3 | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.89R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.84R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

GFDL-ESM2M | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.82R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 51012345678

GISS-E2-H | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.86R2(H) = 0.95

0 1 2 3101234567

GISS-E2-R | i= 7

R2(4x) = -0.71R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 72

0

2

4

6

8

10HadGEM2-ES | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.91R2(H) = 0.94

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 72

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.91R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 62

0

2

4

6

8


R2(4x) = 0.92R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 51012345678

IPSL-CM5B-LR | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.28R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

MIROC5 | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.35R2(H) = 0.88

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 72

0

2

4

6

8

10MIROC-ESM | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.9R2(H) = 0.34

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

∆TL (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

MPI-ESM-MR | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.58R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

10MPI-ESM-P | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.77R2(H) = 0.91

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

101234567

MRI-CGCM3 | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.74R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

1012345678

NorESM1-M | i= 7

R2(4x) = 0.7R2(H) = 0.97



1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

∆TL (

K)

ACCESS1.0 | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.9R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

ACCESS1.3 | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.94R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.91R2(H) = 0.98

0 1 2 3 4 501234567

BCC-CSM1.1m | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 71012345678

CanESM2 | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

CCSM4 | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.84R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5 | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5.2 | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.82

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678


R2(4x) = 0.94R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

GFDL-CM3 | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

GFDL-ESM2M | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.75R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 510123456

GISS-E2-H | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.75R2(H) = 0.99

0 1 2 310123456

GISS-E2-R | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.12R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

HadGEM2-ES | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.94R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 1.0

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

IPSL-CM5A-MR | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 510123456

IPSL-CM5B-LR | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.78R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 510123456

MIROC5 | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.87R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 71012345678

MIROC-ESM | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.86

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

1012345678

MPI-ESM-MR | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

MPI-ESM-P | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.95

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

10123456

MRI-CGCM3 | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

10123456

NorESM1-M | i= 8

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.99



1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

∆TL (

K)

ACCESS1.0 | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

ACCESS1.3 | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.99

0 1 2 3 4 5012345678

BCC-CSM1.1m | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.96R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 71012345678

CanESM2 | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 510123456

∆TL (

K)

CCSM4 | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5 | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6101234567

CNRM-CM5.2 | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.78

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678


R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

GFDL-CM3 | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

∆TL (

K)

GFDL-ESM2G | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.87R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5101234567

GFDL-ESM2M | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.89R2(H) = 0.91

1 0 1 2 3 4 510123456

GISS-E2-H | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.62R2(H) = 0.94

0 1 2 3

0

1

2

3

4

5GISS-E2-R | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.69R2(H) = 0.92

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

HadGEM2-ES | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 61012345678

IPSL-CM5A-MR | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.99R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 510123456

IPSL-CM5B-LR | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.99

1 0 1 2 3 4 510123456

MIROC5 | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

MIROC-ESM | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.95R2(H) = 0.31

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

∆TL (

K)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.98R2(H) = 0.96

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

1012345678

MPI-ESM-MR | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.98

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

0

2

4

6

8

MPI-ESM-P | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.97R2(H) = 0.93

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

10123456

MRI-CGCM3 | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.97

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

∆TG (K)

0

1

2

3

4

5NorESM1-M | i= 9

R2(4x) = 0.93R2(H) = 0.97



0 1 2 3 4 5 6604020

020406080

∆PG (

mm

yr−

1)

ACCESS1.0

R2 = 0.98

0 1 2 3 4 5 64020

020406080

100120

ACCESS1.3

R2 = 0.98

0 1 2 3 4 5 620

0

20

40

60

80

100BCC-CSM1.1

R2 = 0.98

1 2 3 4 520

020406080

100120

BCC-CSM1.1m

R2 = 0.98

1 2 3 4 5 6 74020

020406080

100CanESM2

R2 = 0.97

1 2 3 4 54020

020406080

100

∆PG (

mm

yr−

1)

CCSM4

R2 = 0.98

1 2 3 4 54020

020406080

100CNRM-CM5

R2 = 0.98

1 2 3 4 54020

020406080

100CNRM-CM5.2

R2 = 0.97

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 720

020406080

100120140

CSIRO-Mk3.6.0

R2 = 0.98

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 74020

020406080

100120140

GFDL-CM3

R2 = 0.98

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.540

20

0

20

40

60

80

∆PG (

mm

yr−

1)

GFDL-ESM2G

R2 = 0.93

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.540

20

0

20

40

60

80GFDL-ESM2M

R2 = 0.94

1 2 3 460

40

20

0

20

40

60GISS-E2-H

R2 = 0.98

1 2 3 4

40

20

0

20

40

GISS-E2-R

R2 = 0.94

1 2 3 4 5 6 7604020

020406080

100HadGEM2-ES

R2 = 0.99

1 2 3 4 5 6 74020

020406080

100120140

∆PG (

mm

yr−

1)

IPSL-CM5A-LR

R2 = 0.98

1 2 3 4 5 6 74020

020406080

100120140

IPSL-CM5A-MR

R2 = 0.99

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.540

20

0

20

40

60

80IPSL-CM5B-LR

R2 = 0.96

1 2 3 4 54020

020406080

100MIROC5

R2 = 0.93

1 2 3 4 5 6 74020

020406080

100120140

MIROC-ESM

R2 = 0.98

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

4020

020406080

100120

∆PG (

mm

yr−

1)

MPI-ESM-LR

R2 = 0.97

1 2 3 4 5 6

∆TG (K)

4020

020406080

100120

MPI-ESM-MR

R2 = 0.97

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

∆TG (K)

4020

020406080

100120

MPI-ESM-P

R2 = 0.97

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

∆TG (K)

200

20406080

100120140

MRI-CGCM3

R2 = 0.96

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

∆TG (K)

40

20

0

20

40

60

80NorESM1-M

R2 = 0.98

Figure S40. Fits of the parameters of the global yearly precipitations response (section 2.11.3).


20 0 20 40 604020

020406080

100120

∆PL (

mm

yr−

1)

ACCESS1.0 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.7R2(H) = 0.56

0 40 8050

0

50

100

150

200

250ACCESS1.3 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.84R2(H) = 0.91

0 40 80

0

50

100

150

BCC-CSM1.1 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.56R2(H) = 0.86

0 40 80 12050

0

50

100

150

200

250BCC-CSM1.1m | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.84R2(H) = 0.88

0 40 8050

050

100150200250300

CanESM2 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.81R2(H) = 0.9

0 40 80

0

50

100

150

∆PL (

mm

yr−

1)

CCSM4 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.91R2(H) = 0.85

0 40 8050

0

50

100

150

200

250CNRM-CM5 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.44R2(H) = 0.79

0 40 8050

0

50

100

150

200

250CNRM-CM5.2 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.71R2(H) = 0.17

0 40 80 120

0

50

100

150CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.8R2(H) = 0.86

40 0 40 80 120100

500

50100150200250300

GFDL-CM3 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.81R2(H) = 0.81

20 0 20 40 60

0

50

100

150

∆PL (

mm

yr−

1)

GFDL-ESM2G | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.14R2(H) = 0.75

0 20 40 60

0

50

100

150GFDL-ESM2M | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.34R2(H) = 0.84

0 20 40 604020

020406080

100120140

GISS-E2-H | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.74R2(H) = 0.5

10 0 10 20 30 4020

0

20

40

60

80

100GISS-E2-R | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.51R2(H) = 0.72

0 40 8050

0

50

100

150

200HadGEM2-ES | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.74R2(H) = 0.84

0 40 80 120604020

020406080

100120

∆PL (

mm

yr−

1)

IPSL-CM5A-LR | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.55R2(H) = 0.75

0 40 80 120604020

020406080

IPSL-CM5A-MR | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.2R2(H) = 0.36

0 20 40 6020

020406080

100120

IPSL-CM5B-LR | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.86R2(H) = 0.94

0 20 40 60 8020

020406080

100120140

MIROC5 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.76R2(H) = 0.68

0 40 80 12050

0

50

100

150

200

250MIROC-ESM | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.73R2(H) = 0.02

0 40 80 120

∆PG (mm yr−1)

500

50100150200250300

∆PL (

mm

yr−

1)

MPI-ESM-LR | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.83

0 40 80 120

∆PG (mm yr−1)

500

50100150200250300

MPI-ESM-MR | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.89R2(H) = 0.88

0 40 80 120

∆PG (mm yr−1)

50

0

50

100

150

200

250MPI-ESM-P | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.4R2(H) = 0.25

0 40 80 120

∆PG (mm yr−1)

50

0

50

100

150

200

250MRI-CGCM3 | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.69R2(H) = 0.18

0 20 40 60

∆PG (mm yr−1)

200

20406080

100120

NorESM1-M | i= 1

R2(4x) = 0.85R2(H) = 0.84

Figure S41. Fits of the parameter of the pattern scaling for local yearly precipitations (section 2.11.3). The grey, green, blue, magenta and redpoints are from the historical, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 simulations, respecitvely; the yellow ones are from the "abrupt4xCO2"simulation. The R2 are given for fits made over the quadrupled CO2 experiment (4x) or the combined historical and RCPs (H) – if these RCPsimulations were conducted. Decadal running means are shown; and the fits are the dotted and plain black lines, for the quadrupled CO2experiment and combined historical and RCPs respectively.


20 0 20 40 60200150

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