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CLIMATE CHANGE &

AGRICULTURE

Climate change and agriculture are interrelated globally. Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on agriculture, including temperature, carbon dioxide, glacial run-off and precipitation. These conditions determine the capacity of the biosphere to produce food for human and animals and the overall effect of climate change on agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects.

Various methodologies have been developed to measure the impact on agriculture. There is a link starting with economic activity to greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, radiative forcing, climate change, market and non-market impacts to economic damages. Land use change such as deforestation and desertification, together are the major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide.

Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agriculture, soil properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variabilities in local climates rather than in global climate patterns. The earth's average surface temperature has increased by 1 degree F over the last century. Agronomist considers an assessment has to be individually considered for each local area.

Agriculture trade has grown enormously on a national level. The international aspect of trade and security in terms of food implies the need to consider the effects of climate change on a global scale.

A study published in Science suggest that, due to climate change, “Southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its main crop, maize, by 2030. In South Asia losses of many regional staples, such as rice, millet and maize could top 10%". The 2001 IPCC Assessment Report concluded that the poorest countries would be hardest hit, with reductions in crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability. In Africa and Latin America many rain fed crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance, such that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes.

Rise, Fall and Potential of India's Traditional Water Harvesting System provides a comprehensive overview of India's millennia-old traditions of water harvesting. This book triggered a nationwide interest in community-based water management.

Climate change is likely to affect crops differently from region to region. According to the UK Met Office, average crop yield is expected to drop down to 50% in Pakistan whereas corn production in Europe is expected to grow up to 25%. More favourable effects on yield tend to depend, to a large extent, on realization of the potentially beneficial effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and increase of efficiency in water use. Decrease in potential yields is likely to be caused by shortening of the growing period, decrease in water availability and poor vernalization. A yam are not just a food crop, but embraces a whole culture in it, like rice cultures in Indonesia, Thailand and other rice growing communities, there is a whole lot more than meets the eye. This puts pressure on forest areas, as large families tend to make more than one garden. In forest communities, the general thinking is that there are enough areas for gardening and so the traditional shifting agriculture is still a major practice. So now the pressure is on yam growing communities and will need to look at new ways of cultivating yams. This calls for massive dissemination of new thinking and practices that are environmental friendly.

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In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways like productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops; agricultural practices, through changes of water use and agricultural inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers; environmental effects, particularly in relation to frequency and intensity of soil drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching); soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity; rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, and hydraulic amenities. Crops may become less competitive, as humans may develop more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice. Rapid climate change could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those that are already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions, because there is less time for optimum natural selection and adaptation.

Sweet potato, the world's seventh most important food crop, is extremely important to global food security, according to Experts. Yet very little genomic information is available in a form that sweet potato breeders can use to develop new varieties for enhanced nutrition or improved resistance to stresses brought about by climate change and adverse environmental conditions. In addition to creating genetic maps of sweet potato, Experts will use high-throughput DNA sequencer to develop sweet potato micro array for studying where, when and how certain genes are expressed, especially during stress, related to environmental factors such as drought.

Areas like Bangladesh, India and Vietnam will experience major loss of rice crop if sea levels are expected to rise by the end of the century.

The continued retreat of glaciers will have a number of different quantitative impacts. In areas that are heavily dependent on water runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a

continuation of the current retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished. According to a UN climate report, the Himalayan glaciers, principal dry-season water sources of Asia's biggest rivers - Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Salween and Yellow - could disappear by 2035. Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers. India, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods followed by severe droughts. In India alone, Ganges provides water to more than 500 million people. The west coast of North America, which gets its water from glaciers in mountain ranges like Rocky Mountains would be affected.

They are large uncertainties to uncover, particularly because there is lack of information that include the uncertainties on magnitude of climate change, the effects of technological changes on productivity, global food demands, and the numerous possibilities of adaptation. Most agronomists believe that agricultural production will be mostly affected by the severity and pace of climate change, not so much by gradual trends in climate. If change is gradual, there may be enough time for adjustments.

In conclusion, climate change is expected to increase temperatures, affect changes in precipitation, increase likelihood of floods, reduce fresh water availability, impact on Coastal agriculture and promote outbreak of pests and diseases.

We, especially in India, need to learn to live with less water from technologies currently available from such countries like Israel. We should introduce energy efficient pumps, drip irrigation and growing seedlings such as for rice using hydroponics with

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technologies, which speed up and reduce water required for such cultivation.

India has over 135,000 varieties of rice and many varieties are becoming extinct. There are special varieties of rice such as deepwater floating rice and we need to learn how to preserve and grow such varieties.

We also need to encourage expertise and production of crops such as Drumsticks, Annual Moringa, Sweet potato, Yam and Dioscorea alata (a life saving crop), according to Prof. Dr. M.S. Swaminathan.

There are neglected crops for coping with climate change such as ragi and millet and these need attention.

We need to prepare ourselves for the worst and hope for the best.

If the Himalayan glaciers dry up by 2035, we should have an alternative plan in place for crops as well as for drinking water.

This is a collective challenge we have to face.

Mr. Kamal Meattle, TCP-India - Presenter

FORESTS: AN ALLY AGAINST

CLIMATE CHANGE

India has a long tradition of forest

protection, dating back 142 years. India’s Forest and Tree

Covers account for

23.84% of the total geographical area of the country. Deforestation in India was mainly caused because of excessive wood product industries. However for the last few decades, Indian forests have grown, at the rate of 0.3 million hectares between 1997 and 2007, adding to a total of 3.13 million hectares (State of the World’s Forests, 2009). Today, pressure is put on these forests exploited for pulp, plywood, logging or timber.

Forests are extremely vital for agriculture, climate and human welfare, mainly because they reduce the loss of surface water. A forest is a balanced

ecosystem, which provides the soil with everything it needs for good fertility, through the actions of tree’s roots and litter. (Trees, crops and soil fertility; concept and research method, Par Goetz Schroth,Fergus L. Sinclair)

Put simply, if we conserve forests, we enable the water to penetrate the topsoil and to replenish groundwater, which is crucial to agriculture, instead of allowing excessive evaporation from top soil.

Forests keep the rainfall from “washing” the soil away by their leaf cover and their roots and therefore prevent soil erosion. By “keeping” this rainwater trapped in its soil, forests reduce flooding, particularly during monsoon season, which would lead to less groundwater and even more and intense floods. Forest conservation is a means to ensure water supply and soil fertility to local farmers.

Soil erosion, while a natural phenomenon is presently being exacerbated dramatically by human activities, and can lead to brutal consequences like landslides, earthquakes or volcanic activity (Vanoni, 2006).

The causes of erosion are multiple: wind, water, change in temperature or lack of vegetation. The consequences are an impoverished land and a loss of fertile soil.

The most noticeable effect of climate change directly impacting forests is rise in temperature, since it affects the lifecycle of plants and animals. This is called phenology. For the past 100 years, the average global temperature has risen by approximately 0.6° C (Nature 421, 2003), which has consequences on the cycles of plant blossom and production, as well as animal reproduction. Some of them might not even survive the increase in temperature and disappear. India already hosts 2.9% of the world’s threatened species, many of

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which live in the exceptional ecosystems formed by forests (Biodiversity Profile of India).

Because of climate change, droughts and floods will appear in unusual areas, causing ecological disasters in forests. India’s forest cover is going to be greatly affected by climate change; some will disappear and some will mutate into tropical or moist forests, which will cause great damage to the fauna and flora that they host.

It is important to note that through photosynthesis, forests act as a gigantic carbon reservoir. According to a 2009 report by the ministry of Environment and Forests of India “In India the total amount of carbon stocked in forests rose up to 6,662 million tons in 2005. These CO2 sequesters compensate for 11.25% of India’s total GHG as emissions. This can also be appreciated as100% emissions from all energy in residential and transport sectors; or 40% of India’s agricultural sector’s emissions” (India’s forest and tree cover; Contribution as a carbon sink, 2009).

Sustainable agriculture depends on forests and

forests depend on sustainable agriculture. Forests

play a great role in mitigating the effects of climate

change, and it is clear that protecting them must be

a high priority for us!

Mathilde Bres, Volunteer, TCP-India

HYDRO CLIMATIC CHANGE AND

AGRICULTURE IN INDIA

India’s water supply is already in high demand due to increased urbanisation, rapid industrialisation, population growth and economic development. Added demand from agricultural expansion grossly heightens anthropocentric modification of the hydrologic cycle. Climate change serves to add further pressure to India’s water sources, which without careful management could become unsustainably challenged. Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climatic change because it is directly dependent on weather conditions (Mall et al., 2006). Adequate water supply is essential for the irrigation of most crops grown in India. It is also a mainstay of India’s livelihood, agriculture supplies food for over 1.16 billion people and contributes to over 17% of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Kumar and Parikhi, 2001) Because of the importance and vulnerability of agriculture in India, sustainable water management is crucial for resiliency towards climate change and pressures from a growing population.

Global warming, the prerequisite of climate change, accelerates the processes within the hydrologic cycle. Precipitation, evaporation and evapo-transpiration (evaporation of water from vegetative matter) processes are sped up, which by implication effects water availability (Loaiciga et al., 1996). Water supply for agriculture comes from two main sources within the hydrologic cycle, surface water and groundwater. Surface water is stored in rivers, wetlands and lakes and is replenished through precipitation and snow-melt. Ground water, also referred to as sub-surface water is stored underground, either in porous rock and soil material just below the surface layer of the earth or in aquifers below the water table. The replenishment of groundwater happens at much slower rates compared with surface water. Infiltration is the primary method by which precipitated water filters through permeable surfaces of the earth to reach underground aquifers (Narasimham, 2009).

Global per capita ground water availability

UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Freshwater availability: groundwater and river flow, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater-availability-groundwater-and-river-flow (Accessed 8 September 2008).

The implications of an accelerated hydrologic cycle are however temporal and geographically variable. Some areas, such as India’s Indo-Gangetic basin, are expected to receive increased surface water availability from increased snow-melt until the year 2030. Thereafter, surface water reserves will gradually decline as sources of snow-melt are exhausted. Though rainfall in the Indo-Gangetic basin is likely to lessen, most other hydrologic basins are likely to experience greater precipitation. The increase in precipitation however, coincides with greater rainfall intensity. Currently India’s total annual rainfall occurs within only 100 hours during monsoon season. Hydro-climatic change could result in half of the predicted rainfall occurring within

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just 30 hours. Higher rainfall intensity means that surface water run off will be exaggerated (Shah, 2009). This raises flood risk because excessive run off can exceed the carrying capacity of most rivers, lakes and wetlands. Groundwater reserves are also negatively affected by excess run off as it limits replenishment through infiltration (Narasimham, 2009).

The implication of such varied seasonal impacts means that Indian agriculture will experience a range of potentially damaging effects. Kharif, or monsoon season crops, such as rice, will experience heightened risk of flooding during the monsoon season but are likely to experience drought conditions throughout the rest of the year. Winter and summer crops will be affected by greater evapo-transpiration, which means they will require more frequent irrigation (Kumar and Parikhi, 2001). Surface water will receive higher rates of replenishment through increased run off, but will also be susceptible to loss through increased evaporation. Groundwater sources may be less directly affected by climate change but because changes to surface water will be increasingly variable, the use of ground water will become more frequently exploited. This means that regions where groundwater is already in short supply are likely to face even greater scarcity (Mall et al 2006).

Aside from variable water supply concerns, climate change and population growth will also put at risk water quality. Both surface water and ground water sources can be affected which will have disastrous effects regarding potable use. Unsustainable agricultural practices can be held responsible for increases in effluent, nutrient and chemical contaminates entering vital water reserves. (Mall et al 2006). Surface water catchments, lakes, rivers

and wetlands, are particularly at risk because increased run-off will transport more pollutants at rates too fast to allow for natural filtration to reduce the contamination. Groundwater sources have a better capacity to filter out pollutants, however once they become contaminated they are extremely difficult to decontaminate. Groundwater sources are particularly susceptible to seepage from organic chemicals used as pesticides in agriculture, which can be toxic even at very low quantities. Furthermore due to global sea level rise associated with climate change, groundwater supplies, specifically in coastal areas, are at risk of becoming contaminated by saltwater intrusion. Saltwater contamination of groundwater would render it unusable for both potable needs and agricultural irrigation (Loaiciga et al., 1996).

Climate change coupled with pressures from population growth put water availability and water quality at risk. Integrated management of surface water and groundwater reserves is necessary to ensure agricultural pursuits are sustainable across geographic regions and throughout seasonal variations in India. Agricultural practices which limit the likelihood of water contamination are also primarily important in mitigating adverse effects of climate change (Shah, 2009).

Jayme Thompson, Volunteer, TCP-India

ECONOMIC IMPACTS:

AGRICULTURE AS A LIVELIHOOD

It is no secret that agriculture forms the basis of our livelihoods, and that climate change plays a major role in the future of agricultural productivity. Whether agriculture is a source of income, food or employment, it forms the basis of our existence. However, as a result of climate change, the future of agriculture in India appears to be at risk.

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In the last few decades, India has seen its share of extreme events in various forms – cyclones, floods and droughts. Not only have these impacts directly affected the farmers, but have also caused deaths, massive destruction and displacement of numerous people from their homes.

According to the report, Climate Change Impacts in Drought and Flood Affected Areas: Case Studies in India (June, 2008), it is clear that the damage caused by climate change will have disastrous impact on crops. To bring this point home, take the example of Maharashtra - rainfall is expected to increase by 20-30% with a 2.4-3.8

oC rise in

temperature. On one hand, it is projected that this shift in rainfall and temperature increase will increase the yield of dryland crops such as jowar, which will consequently increase farmers’ incomes by 8-10%. On the other hand, yield of sugarcane is predicted to decline by as much as 30%, severely affecting farmers’ incomes in this area. In another drought prone part of the country, Andhra Pradesh, for example, farmers’ incomes are expected to plunge by 20% due to a shift in weather patterns. In this scenario, with small rain-fed farms in large parts of the country, agriculture will no longer be able to sustain our large population.

The report also talks about flood prone Orissa, where we have been seeing a consistent and dangerous rise in flood-waters. It is projected that rice yield is expected to drop by 12%, causing immeasurable losses to all those relying on this either directly or indirectly.

The Economist reports that Uttar Pradesh, home to 185 million people, will be hit hard with rice production expected to go down by 60%. With India’s primary reservoirs one-third below their seasonal average, wheat production will also be greatly affected. Water supply to major cities like Delhi will be dramatically impacted as well.

These statistics clearly reveal that climate change and consequently extreme natural calamities will have a drastic impact on agriculture. It is crucial that programs are undertaken in order to ensure that the livelihood of the farmers is not severely affected. Keeping India’s geographic diversity in mind, different programs will be required to be implemented in various regions.

For example, in drought prone areas, farmers require support and education to make a smooth transition to sustainable dryland farming on a large scale. By understanding and expanding into agro-forestry or livestock production, farmers can find a more resilient source of living. Furthermore, regular cycles of drought in these areas require farmers to shift to dryland crops so as to adapt to the extreme climatic conditions. In order to deal with the large debt that the farmers hold as a result of this drought, they must look for alternate options. By encouraging the start of new businesses or providing insurance options, these farmers will be will be given opportunities to find new avenues by which they are able to sustain themselves.

Flood prone areas, on the other hand, require other types of programs, for example providing the farmers with knowledge of rainfall-tolerant and shorter duration crops that are more resilient to flooding. Aquaculture can be a great boon to farmers, if consistent progress is made in the field. Moreover, better planning could ensure that flood zoning is undertaken. In this way, the growing population will be able to make efficient use of the land.

These are just some of the various programs that can be undertaken to alleviate the damage done to the lives and livelihood of the farmers. Each extreme event, whether a drought, flood or cyclone, brings with it a great amount of damage – in the form of disaster-victims, damage to property or loss of livelihood.

While each of us might be doing our part to contribute to reducing the effects of climate change, we must ensure that those who do not have the available resources are provided with substantial aid to meet this challenge.

Divya Shah, Analyst, TCP-India

CIVIL SOCIETY TRAINING This month, TCP-India in collaboration with Alliance Francaise, Mumbai held another Civil Society

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Training at the Alliance on November 21, 2009. The audience was dynamic and consisted of persons of diverse backgrounds including, college students, journalists, entrepreneurs, professionals, and NGO’s. The first half of the workshop kicked off with a friendly and intelligent repertoire about the science and Indian impacts of climate change delivered by TCP-India’s Presenters - Anokhi Parikh and Anuskha Pinto. During the second half of the day, the guest speakers shook the audience into an awakening account of the state of India’s biodiversity and waste management solutions. Dr. Anish Andheria from Sancutary Magazine, gave am awe inspiring talk with much energy and enthusiasm as he regaled the audience with his own experiences and educated them about the plants and animals that make up India’s precious but vulnerable biodiversity. Mr Chetan Zaveri from IL&FS Ecosmart Ltd had much of the same effect on the audience as he explained how he completed the unfathomable task of transforming a landfill site into clean, green high profile real-estate. Bringing the day to a close, Anil Ranglani, from “Daily Dump” talked about a simple but effective solution to waste management that is easy implemented in your home and result ensure 100% separation of waste and recycling of your dry waste.

NATURE WALK

At the end of the Civil Society workshop, our guest speaker Dr. Anish Andheria offered the audience an opportunity to go on a nature walk to our very own Sanjay Gandhi National Park, which offer was received with great enthusiasm. The nature walk was held on December 6, 2009, and this fantastic experience allowed those who joined us to truly understand the importance of various elements of nature and the importance of our forests and the ec systems that it supports.

REFERENCES

State of the World’s Forests 2009 (FAO) _ ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0350e/i0350e01b.pdf

Centre for Ecological Science Bangalore _ http://ces.iisc.ernet.in/hpg/cesmg/indiabio.html#Threatened Species

India’s Forest and Tree Cover: Contribution as a carbon sink:

http://www.envfor.nic.in/divisions/ccd/Contri_carbon_sink.pdf

Loaiciga, H, Valdes, J, Vogel, R, Garvey, J and Shwarz, H (1996)

Global Warming and the Hydrologic Cycle. Journal of Hydrology (174) pp 83-127

Kumar, L and Parikhi, J (2001) Indian Agriculture and Climate Sensitivity. Global Environmental Change (11) pp 147-154

Mall, R, Gupta, A, Singh, R, Singh, R and Rathmore, L (2006) Water

Resources and Climate Change: An Indian Perspective. Current Science (90) (12) pp 1610-1626

Narasimham, T (2009) Groundwater: from Mystery to Management. Environmental Research Letters (4) 035002

Shah, T (2009) Climate Change and groundwater: India’s opportunities

for mitigation and adaptation. Environmental Research Letters (4) 03500

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