The Changing Face of Forestry:

The U.S. Forest Service Perspective

Ken ArneyU.S. Forest Service

Table of Contents

• National Forest News

• Emerging Forest Issues in the South

• Challenges for Forestry

National Forest NewsSecure Rural Schools Proposal

• President’s 2007 budget includes proposal to reauthorize Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act for 5 years

• Funding would be from sale of certain NF lands• Currently in Congress – Considerable opposition

from both parties

National Forest NewsRoadless Rule Petitions

• USDA Sec. Approved petitions from VA, NC and SC on June 21 to develop state-specific roadless area rules (first in nation)

• FS will work with states to develop rules – public input will be solicited

• States have until Nov. 13, 2006 to file petitions, or forest plans prevail

• Georgia not expected to file petition.• About 12 expected nationwide

Emerging Forestry Issues

• Ownership Change

• Land Use Change

• Changing Markets – Timber and Other

• Forest Health Concerns

Ownership Change

David N. Wear

And

John G. Greis

Forest area and Forest area and ownershipownership

Forest Area by Ownership Group - South

0

60

120

180

National forest Other public Forestindustry

Nonindustrialprivate

Ownership class

Mill

ion

acr

es

1953 1963 1982 1989 1999

Source: SFRA

The Changing Landscape ofPrivate Timberland Ownership

Mike Clutter

Brooks Mendell

David Newman

June 13, 2005

Industry Ownership Changes By FIA Units

Industry Land Divestiture Summarized

• More than 20 million acres in South since 1996

• Driven by several forces

• Widespread but focused in parts of the South

• Raises several questions and concerns

Questions Include:

– Will this trend increase / accelerate fragmentation across forested landscapes?

– Will management objectives and silvicultural practices change dramatically?

– How will the changes impact fire suppression capabilities?

– Will new owners practice good forest stewardship?

Other Private Forest Land Ownership National Statistics

1953 - 2003

0

100

200

300

400

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Are

a (M

M a

cres

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ow

ner

s (M

M)

Southern Forest Owners:

• 5 million

• Increasingly absentee

• 29% white collar; 20% retirees

• 6% farmers (down from 67% 50 yrs ago)

• Diverse management objectives

• Mostly do not seek management advice

• Small % control more than 1/3 of all timberlandSource: SFRA

Why do they own forestland?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Firewood

Timber

Land investment

Recreation

Family legacy

Aesthetics

Home/farm

Percent of Family Forestland

Source: N.W.O. Survey

Land Use Change

Percent-20.1 - 00 - 12.712.7 - 27.327.3 - 49.749.7 - 114.9

Population change (2000-2020)

2020 Forecast ….Southern Residents Will Be:

• Increased by 24 million

• More urban

• Older

• More Hispanic and African-American

• Just more than 50% White

Source: So. WUI Assessment

Urbanization – Why Care?

“Among the forces of change, urbanization will have the most

direct, immediate and permanent effects on the extent, condition and

health of forests” SFRA, 2002

Urbanization Outcomes

• Smaller parcel sizes• More difficult management (e.g. smoke)• More recreational pressure• Conversion to non-forest• Economic disincentives to own and manage• More biocentric ownerships and citizenry• More public resistance to harvests • More local regulations and ordinances (346 in

2000 vs. 141 in 1992 in South)

Source: SFRA; So. WUI Assessment

Potential forest loss

-4000

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Alabam

a

Arkansas

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

Louisiana

Mississippi

North

Carolina

Oklahoma

South

Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Virginia

1000 a

cre

sRange of Forecast Changes by

StateWear, 2006 (in Draft)

Forecast Total Regional Forest Change (Wear, 2006 in Draft)

• No net loss if:– High timber prices– Lowered population growth– Low ag prices

• Maximum loss of 27 million acres if:– Low timber prices– High Population growth– High ag prices

Changing Markets

Rapid Assessment of Market Change in the South

Douglas Carter and Dave Wear

Assoc. Prof., SFRC, Univ of FL

and

Project Leader, Economics Work Unit,

USFS SRS

What Has Happened?--Harvests--

• Steady growth ’62-’98• Declining harvests

’98-’01• Softwood and

hardwood pulpwood harvests declined 11% and 21% from ’98-’01

• Softwood sawtimber harvests were more stable

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

mm

cf

S. Sawtimber S. pulpwood H. pulpwood

Southern US Timber Harvests

What Has Happened?--Prices--

• Biggest declines were in softwood pulpwood since ‘98.

• Softwood sawtimber not impacted as severely.

• Hardwood pulpwood more volatile but regained strength since 2000.

• Hardwood sawtimber stable or increasing.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

ind

ex

(19

77

=1

)

H Saw H Pulp S Saw S Pulp

Southern US Stumpage Prices

Pulpmills and Chipmills in the South

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pulp & chip distance1 - 50 51 - 100101 - 250251 - 500501 +

# Pulpmills_chipmills_south.shp

500 0 500 1000 Miles

N

EW

S

Number of Southern Pulp Mills

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

US Forest Service and Forest Resources Assn.

Sawmills in the South

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sawmill distance1 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 150

# Sawmills_south.shp

500 0 500 1000 Miles

N

EW

S

Emerging Markets???

• Carbon

• Water

• Biomass

• Viewscapes

• Wildlife Viewing/Habitat

• Other Ecosystem Services

Conclusions: Markets

• Markets are NOT going away, but adjusting after rapid growth in the 1990’s

• Domestic demand has declined for pulpwood– 16% reduction in southern pulping capacity since

1997 (indicates a sustained decline in demand)

• Some expanding demand for pulpwood per OSB expansion

• Solidwood demand appears stable• Ecosystem services may offer promise

Significant Forest Health Management Program Activities in Georgia

• SPB prevention program

• Hemlock Woolly Adelgid control

• Cogongrass eradication along FL border

• Redbay mortality in coastal areas

• Sudden oak death surveys

In Conclusion………

• The South’s population is growing rapidly• Southern forests are changing ownership, being

urbanized, and facing numerous health issues• National Forests will play a key but changing

role in southern forestry• USFS State and Private Forestry will continue to

lead on issues relevant to non-federal forest lands.

• Cooperation among all owners and managers will be necessary if southern forests are to remain viable and healthy

For More Information…..

• Email: karney@fs.fed.us

• SFRA: www.srs.fs.fed.us/sustain

• Changing Industry Ownership: www.southernforests.org

• Market Change: www.southernforests.org