The Changing Demographics of Texas and Their Impact on

our Nonprofit Sector

The Texas Nonprofit Summit

September 20, 2012Austin, Texas

2

Growing States, 2000-2010

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

15.7% of numerical change in U.S.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

3

Percent Change Due to

Year* PopulationNumerical

ChangePercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35

2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011

4

The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011

Percent Increase

1. Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash. 4.3

2. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 3.9

3. Hinesville-Fort Stewart, Ga. 3.44. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas 3.05. Raleigh-Cary, N.C. 2.96. Warner Robins, Ga. 2.97. Provo-Orem, Utah 2.7

8. Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, S.C. 2.6

9. Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-Conway, S.C. 2.6

10. Yuma, Ariz. 2.6

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

5

The 10 Metro Areas with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011

NumericIncrease

1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 154,774

2. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas 139,699

3. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va. 121,911

4. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. 118,791

5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. 115,964

6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. 105,490

7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. 90,345

8. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 80,146

9. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz. 70,349

10. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 67,230

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

6

The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011

NumericIncrease

1. Harris, Texas 88,4522. Los Angeles, Calif. 70,4513. Maricopa, Ariz. 63,1274. Miami-Dade, Fla. 58,3315. Riverside, Calif. 49,9796. Dallas, Texas 47,8757. Orange, Calif. 45,5138. San Diego, Calif. 44,7569. Bexar, Texas 41,37610. Tarrant, Texas 40,776

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains

7

Texas Business-Cycle Index

8

Texas Jobs Growing Faster Than Nation’s

9

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 to 2001

2001 to 2002

2002 to 2003

2003 to 2004

2004 to 2005

2005 to 2006

2006 to 2007

2007 to 2008

2008 to 2009

International

State-to-State

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009

Hurricane Katrina

10

Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity

Net domesti

c migr

ation

Internati

onal migr

ation

Total0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

44%24% 33%

28%50% 40%

23% 8% 15%

5%18% 12%

OtherBlackHispanicWhite

67% of all migrants

Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)

52% of all migrants were international

11

States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010

State Estimate (thousands)

Range

California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750)

Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850)

Florida 825 (725 - 950)

New York 625 (525 - 725)

New Jersey 550 (425 - 650)

Illinois 525 (425 - 625)

Georgia 425 (300 - 550)

Arizona 400 (275 - 500)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).

6.5% of Texas’ 2010 Population

12

Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Legend

-20 to -45%

-19 to -10%

-9 to -5%

-4 to 0%

1 to 5 %

6 to 20%

21 to 30%

31 to 65%

13

Legend

0-1%

1-2.5%

2.5-3.5%

3.5-5%

5-10%

Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

14http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

15http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other

6%

His-panic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

17

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic

Age

Popu

latio

n

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

18Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non HispanicFemale White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

19Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

20Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non HispanicFemale Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

21

Total Population by County, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10

82 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,001

100,001 - 500,001

500,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 - 4,100,000

22

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

79 counties lost population over the decade

Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

5-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-55%

$18,000-30,000

$ 30,000-35,000

$ 35,000-40,000

$40,000-50,000

$ 50,000-76,000

Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

25

Educational Attainment in Texas, 2009

Level of Educational Attainment

Percent of persons aged 25 years and older

State Ranking

High school diploma or equivalency

79.9% 50

Bachelors 25.5% 31

Graduate 8.5% 33

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009.

26

Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level aged 25 years and more, Texas, 2009

19%

6%

71%

3%

67%

8%

15%

9%

Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.

Less Than High SchoolCollege and Greater

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Education Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

18.8

29.0 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

2000 2040

Perc

ent

28

Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2000'PROJECTIONS X$'.phys001

0

.01-.5

.51-1

1.1-1.5

1.51-4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Texas Medical Board. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys

-3 to -0.5

-0.49 to -.001

0

.001 to .5

.51-2.1

Physician Rate Physician Rate Change, 2000-2010

29

Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008

Physcians per 1,000 persons aged 65+'Age 65p County$'.Physper1k65p

0

GT 0 - LE 5

GT 5 - LE 10

GT 10 - LE 20

GT 20

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates. Texas Medical Board.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Not Border Border Not Border BorderNon-Metro Non-Metro Metropolitan Metropolitan Total

020406080

100120140160180200

95

53

175

110

159

2009Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates.Department of State Health Services. Health Professions Resource Center Database.

Physicians per 100,000 byMetro & Border Status of Counties, 2009

30

31

Percent of People Lacking Health Insurance Coverage by Metro and Non-Metro Area, 2009

Metropolitan Areas

less than 20%

20.0% to 22.9%

23.0% to 25.9%

over 26%

PUMAs

Non-Metropolitan Areas

less than 20%

20.0% to 22.9%

23.0% to 25.9%

over 26%

Metropolitan Areas

less than 20%

20.0% to 22.9%

23.0% to 25.9%

over 26%

PUMAs

Non-Metropolitan Areas

less than 20%

20.0% to 22.9%

23.0% to 25.9%

over 26%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 American Community Survey .Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

The Census Bureau estimates that in 2009 Texas had the highest uninsured rate in the country, at 26.1%, or 6.4 million people.

Texas also had the highest uninsured rate of children, with 17.4%, or 1.28 million children lacking insurance.

Note: Public includes individuals with public only and those with public plus private insurance. Private includes individuals who only have private insurance.Source: American Community Survey, 2010 PUMS data

Percent Health Insurance Coverage by Race/Ethnicityand Type of Insurance, 2010

32

White Black Hispanic Asian Other0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

14

23

37

202625

3229

15

22

61

45

34

66

52

None Public Private

33Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

Year

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040

34

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

AngloBlackHispanicOther

Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040

35

Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2009 Estimated

Percent of the Total Population aged 65 Pct 2009TOT_POPP9

LE 10%

GT 10% - LE 15%

GT 15% - LE 20%

GT 20% - LE 25%

GT 25%

Total Population aged 65 plus 2009TOT_POP9

LE 5,000

GT 5,000 - LE 15,000

GT 15,000 - LE 25,000

GT 25,000 - LE 100,000

GT 100,000

Percent 65 Years and Older Population 65 Years and Older

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Estimates.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

36

Projected Population Among Older Texans

20002003

20062009

20122015

20182021

20242027

20302033

20362039

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Age 65-74 Age 75-85 Age 85+

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.

Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected

2000 Count 2040 Projection

Percent 65 Years Old and Older

< 11.9 (n=66)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)

20.0 or more (n=38)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.

Percent 65 Years Old and Older

< 11.9 (n=2)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)

20.0 or more (n=154)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population Estimatesand Projections Program, 2006 Projections.

<11.912.0 – 14.915.0 – 19.920.0 or more

37

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count. Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

38

Teen Birth Rate by State, 2006

Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Rank State Birth rate per 1,000 women ages 15-19

1 Mississippi 68.42 New Mexico 64.13 Texas 63.14 Arkansas 62.35 Arizona 626 Oklahoma 59.67 Nevada 55.88 Tennessee 54.79 Kentucky 54.6

10 Georgia 54.211 Louisiana 53.912 Alabama 53.5

39

Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040

Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections

40

Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity by County, 2008

Legend

co48_d00

Sheet1$.Nadultobes

0-10,000

10,001-25,000

25,001-75,000

75,001-250,000

250,001-73,000

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: National Diabetes Surveillance System. Available online at: http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/DDTSTRS/default.aspx.

41

Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040

2010

2020

2030

2040

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

Total Latino Anglo African American Other

Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2010

42

Projected Percent of the Adult Population with Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040

LE 15%

15-20%

20-25%

25-30%

30-37.5%

2010 2040

43

Demographics and Destiny

44

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H.