the chances of winning a single number bet on a casino roulette table is 0.02631 a man bets 10 times...
TRANSCRIPT
• The chances of winning a single number bet on a casino roulette table is 0.02631 a man bets 10 times what is the probability he wins...
• Once• Twice• At least once
The Binomial distribution 2
Recap of conditions and probability distributionTextbook work
Cumulative distributionUsing tables
Using a calculator
The Binomial distributionThe conditions necessary to be modelled by a binomial distribution are:
P(X = x) = nCx px (1 - p)n-x
A fixed number of trials ; n
Two possible outcomes p for success and 1 - p for failure
The probability of each outcome is the same for each trial
The trials are independent
The probability that there are x successes is given by:
Ex 3C page 77 q1
When a random variable X satisfies the conditions for a Binomial distribution thenX ~ B(n,p) where n is the number of trials and p is the probability of success.
• What if n is really large and we want to work out something like this...
• X~B(20,0.6) what is P(X ≤ 12)?• To find this out using our current knowledge
would require adding several repetitions of the last formula (either 13 or 8).
Binomial cumulative distribution
This is for finding probabilities less than or equal to a specific value:Three methods for working these out1. Work out each separate value and add them up2. Use tables (in formula book)3. Use your calculator
Adding and The Use of Tables
• X~B(20,0.3) what is P(X ≤ 12)?• In the formula book are some tables where they are added for
you... The rows give P(X≤x) for different values of p.
Adding and The Use of Tables
• X~B(20,0.25) what is P(X > 8)?• The rows only give P(X≤x) for different values of p.
Adding and The Use of Tables• X~B(20,0.6) what is P(X ≤ 12)?• Oh no the table only reads up to p=0.5 so we must model less than or
equal to 12 successes at p=0.6 8 or more successes at p=0.4
Using tables to find binomial probabilities
Visualising – Tables only do ≤
• X~B(20,0.6)• What is P(X<12)? What is P(X>12)?• What is P(3<X≤9)
Activities:
Tarsia puzzle
and/or
Domino trail
CalculatorThe calculator is far easier to use than the tables. It works for any probability but still only does ≤X~B(20,0.6)
What is P(X<12)? What is P(X>12)?What is P(3<X≤9)
Using a calculator to find binomial probabilities
Menu Binm (F5)
Bpd (F1) is for finding individual binomial probabilitiesBcd (F2) is for finding cumulative binomial probabilitiesInvB (F3) is for finding the inverse of binomial
Stat Dist (F5)
Example using BpdData : variablex : 1Numtrial : 9P : 0.2
Move down to Execute and then press CALC (F1)
p =0.30198988 (as part (d))
Example using BcdData : variablex : 4Numtrial : 9P : 0.2Move down to Execute and then press CALC (F1)
p = 0.98041856 (as part (a))
Activity:
Relay race
Exam style questions