the challenges currently posed by climate change pale in … · 2018-03-27 · sustaintech 2018, 22...
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SustainTech 2018, 22 March 2018, Saskatoon
Evaluating climate risks and developing adaptation strategies
to manage risk and take advantage of a warming climate -
examples from and for business
Dave Sauchyn, PhD, PGeo; Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies,
University of Regina
The challenges currently posed by climate change
pale in significance compared with what might come
[…] Once climate change becomes a defining issue
for financial stability, it may already be too late.”
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman
of the G20’s Financial Stability Board.
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global warming
climate variability
climate risks
climate opportunities
climate change denial
carbon capture and storage
carbon tax
governance
oversight responsibility
adaptive capacity
coping strategy
Framing Climate Change
natural infrastructure
extreme weather
vulnerability
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global warming
climate variability
climate risks
climate opportunities
climate change denial
carbon capture and storage
carbon tax
governance
oversight responsibility
adaptive capacity
coping strategy
Framing Climate Change natural infrastructure
extreme weather
vulnerability
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global warming
climate variability
climate risks
climate opportunities
climate change denial
carbon capture and storage
carbon tax
governance
oversight responsibility
adaptive capacity
coping strategy
Framing Climate Change natural infrastructure
extreme weather
vulnerability
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Business risk from climate change now top of mind for Canada’s corporate boards Globe and Mail, November 22, 2017
Business leaders face many questions with the impacts of climate change Globe and Mail, March 9, 2018
Climate change is a business problem Financial Times, May 24, 2014
More Than 900 Examples Of How Climate Change Affects Business Forbes, March 15, 2017
Four Reasons Climate Change Adaptation Should be on Every Executive's Radar Network for Business Sustainability, September 28, 2017
Carney's Climate Fight Gets $6.3 Trillion Boost From Firms Bloomberg, December 12, 2017
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FEI Canada is the all industry professional membership
association for senior financial executives
Climate Change as a Business Issue
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In 1998, the federal government
proposed a Canadian Climate Impacts
and Adaptation Research Network
and a physical node where the effects of
climate are significant and where some
adaptation research capacity and
coordination already exists.
Canada’s First Regional Climate Service
On March 24, 2000, Minister of Natural Resources, Ralph Goodale,
announced the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative,
Canada’s first regional climate center - a partnership of the
governments of Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.
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Including some some major initiatives
($100K to > $2M over 2-5 years):
• C-CIARN Prairies, 2000-2006: NRCan
• Manitoba Hydro Research Chairs, 2003-06
• Climate Change Scenarios, Vulnerability and Impacts Assessment,
2004-2008: GoA
• Biophysical Impact Assessment / SaskAdapt, 2006-10: GoS
• Prairies Chapter of the National Assessment, 2006-08: NRCan
• Phase 1 of the Prairies RAC, 2008-11: NRCan
• Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes (VACEA), 2011-16:
NSERC, SSHRC, IDRC
• South Saskatchewan River Basin Adaptation Project, 2011-16:
WaterSMART Solutions / NSERC
• Urban Water Management in the Context of Climate Change, 2013-15:
EPCOR, City of Calgary, AB Innovates
• Water Resources Challenges in a Changing Climate, 2013-2017: ECCC
More than 100 PARC Research Projects
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More than 400 inquiries from government agencies, communities, and
public and professional organizations, for example:
• Conference Board of Canada
• Town of Viking, AB
• AB Epidemiology Association
• SK Federal Council
• Industrial Vegetation
Management Assoc of AB
• AB Agriculture and Rural
Development
• Consulting Engineers of SK
• Engineers Canada
• Canadian Institute of Public
Health Inspectors
• MB Hydro
• National Roundtable on
Environment and Economy
• Prairie Provinces Water Board
• APEGGA
• Swift Current Creek Watershed
Stewards
• SK Soil Conservation Assoc
• City of Grande Prairie, AB
• Prairie Improvement Network
• Old Wives Watershed Assoc
• SK Environmental Industry
Managers Assoc
• SK Institute of Agrology
• Prairie Conservation Action Plan
• Parkland Conservation Farm
• Agricultural Service Boards of
Alberta
• Red River Basin Commission
• Kanai Blood Indian Tribe
• MB Conservation
• AB Lake Management Society
• Western Boreal Growth and Yield
Association
• SE AB Watershed Alliance
• Pacific NW Economic Region
• Mountain Parks Heritage
Interpretation Association
• Climate Change Central
• Royal SK Museum
• Partners for the SK River Bain
• Bow River Basin Council
• APEGS
• Grande Prairie Chamber of
Conference
• Sturgeon River Watershed Alliance
• Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
• SK Ministry of Advanced Education
• National Council of Women
• SK Irrigation Projects Assoc
• Society for Range
Management
• Transportation Assoc of
Canada
• AB Caucus - House of
Commons
• Yorkton Aircraft Service
• Sierra Club
• AB Irrigation Projects Assoc
• Canadian Institute of Forestry
• Rotary Club of Canmore
• International Mountaineering
Federation
• SK Forest Centre
• Agency Chiefs Tribal Council
• Model Forests
• Banff Town Council
• Files Hills Qu’Appelle Tribal
Council
• Trans Canada Corporation
• Taber, AB
• SaskPower
• TransGas Limited
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January 2018 was the 397th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average
Above
average
Below
average
Te
mp
era
ture
An
om
aly
(°
C)
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201801
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PAGES2k Consortium. 2017. A global multi-proxy database for
temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Nature Scientific Data
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Average Minimum Daily Winter Temperature (°C), Regina, SK, 1900-2018
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GCM: Global Climate Model
RCM:
Regional
Climate
Model
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GCM and RCM grids
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Projected Climate Changes, Western Canada
1971-2000 versus 2040-2069
Tem
pera
ture
Change (∘C
)
Precipitation Change (%)
summer
winter
Much Warmer
and Wetter
Warmer
Possibly Drier
Source: PCIC
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Climate Moisture Index Anomaly (mm), May-June-July, western Canada
From 11 RCMs
wettest driest
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Projected Climate Changes in Winter
Tem
pera
ture
Change (∘C
)
Precipitation Change (%)
winter
Source: PCIC
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Projected Climate Changes, CGCM3, from 1961-90 to 2040-69 Te
mp
era
ture
Ch
an
ge
(∘C
)
Precipitation Change (%)
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July 23-29, Aug 20 & 30
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Mean Water Year Flow (m3/s) South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat, 1108-2010
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North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, 1063-2006
1063 2006
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SW Saskatchewan September 2015
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“In order to expand The
City’s understanding of
historical drought
conditions it is important
to reevaluate historical
drought using tree ring
analysis historically
conducted by the David
Sauchyn (University of
Saskatchewan [sic])”
Address Information Gaps:
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The South Saskatchewan River Basin - Adaptation to Climate Variability –
Phases 1-3
Peach-Athabaca River Basin Adaptation to Climate Variability
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March 2007:
Traditional planning would consider flow
characteristics of the raw water streams as
“knowns” in the system. [ … that is, a stationary
climate and water regime]
EPCOR Utilities Ltd provides water supply and wastewater
treatment to 85 communities in western Canada
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On May 2nd [1796] William Tomison wrote to James Swain that
furs could not be moved as, “there being no water in the river.”
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Sauchyn and Ilich, 2017, WRR
900 years of weekly flows, North Saskatchewan River W
ate
r-Y
ear
Flo
w (
m3/s
)
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Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Municipal
Source Water Supply
L. Gyurek, S. Craik, & S. Neufeld, EPCOR Water Services Inc.
… a better understanding of natural hydroclimatic variability in
surface waters, water utilities including EPCOR are revisiting
this assumption of a static water supply. Specifically
EPCOR supported collaborative research with the Prairie
Adaptation Research Collaborative … a thousand year
record of hydroclimatic variability … This work will allow
EPCOR to better assess future risks to water supply and
quality and develop risk mitigation strategies.
Canadian Association on Water Quality Conference, 21 February 2012, Burlington ON
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Neufeld (2016)
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December 2014: Source Water Protection Plan
To address potential impacts of climate change on water
supply, EPCOR partnered with Prairie Adaptation
Research Collaborative (PARC) …
Understanding that water resources are not a stationary,
water management must be adjusted to a hydrological cycle
which is increasingly sensitive to the timing and frequency of
rainfall events. PARC is continuing to work with EPCOR to
refine predictions and probabilities of water flow on a monthly
basis in order to inform planning.
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Long-term variability and reliability of the flow of the Athabasca River
Sauchyn, DJ, St Jacques, J-M, Luckman, BH. 2015 Long-term
reliability of the Athabasca River (Alberta, Canada) as the water
source for oil sands mining, Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences, vol. 112 no. 41, 12621-12626,
DOI10.1073/pnas.1509726112
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We would like to use your tree rings “to inform
future stages of planning of a proposed oil
sands mining project”
Teck, which has not committed to building the
mega-mine [260,000 barrels of oil per day],
has pegged the cost of Frontier at roughly
$20.6-billion (Globe and Mail, 9 July 2015)
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Hydroclimatic Scenarios for Proposed $20.6B Frontier Mine
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Wee
kly
Flo
w A
va
ila
ble
to
th
e In
du
stry
(m³/
s)
Probability of Exceedance (%)
Historical (1958-2013)
Synthetic (3000 years)
Tree ring (532 years)
Climate Change, (Year 2026)
Climate Change, (Year 2066)
Long et al. 2016
*
* Canada’s largest diversified mining company
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Estimated water demand for solution potash production
Solution mine million m3/yr Water supply Watershed
Operating mines:
Belle Plaine 26.0 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu’Appelle River
Patience Lake n/a Patience Lake South
Saskatchewan River
K + S 15.5 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu’Appelle River
Approved developments:
Wynyard n/a Blairmore Formation Qu’Appelle River
Milestone 21.9 Regina wastewater
treatment plant
Qu’Appelle River
Vale 21.0 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu’Appelle River
Southey max 14.5 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu’Appelle River
Developments under review:
Muskowekwan 13.1 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu’Appelle River
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• Canada is the primary
potash producer and
exporter.
• 96% of Canadian
potash is produced in
Saskatchewan by 11
mines.
• 9 new projects:
All, but one,
solution method;
6 approved;
1 mine started its
operation in May.
• 7 expansion projects.
• Water use:
2010: 22M m3
2060: 127M m3
Potash Mining
Andreichuk. 2017
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42
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Our Society • Urban • Rural • Indigenous Our Environment • Water Resources • Ecosystem Services Our Economy • Costing Impacts and Adaptation • Economic Sector Perspectives Looking Forward • International Dimensions • New and Emerging Issues
• British Columbia • Prairies* • Ontario • Quebec • Atlantic Provinces • Northern Canada
Canada in a Changing Climate - Regional
Perspectives
Canada in a Changing Climate- National
Issues
Canada in a Changing Climate:
Assessing the Knowledge for Action
2020 Release Date
* Dr. D. Sauchyn, Lead Author
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A new approach includes:
44
• Key messages: to focus chapters on priority issues
• Multiple products released throughout the process;
include writing for multiple audiences
• More inclusive and transparent process – input from
stakeholders and public
• Inclusion of Indigenous knowledge (guidance to be
provided)
• Early and sustained engagement of amplifier
organizations; collaborative process and products
• All writing and figures developed for digital delivery
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Resilient
Vulnerable Time
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For more information:
The Prairie Adaptation Research
Collaborative was created in 2000, as a
partnership of the governments of
Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and
Alberta.
www.parc.ca