Climate and the Environment in ESA

The challenges and priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in ESA region

Outline

• What is climate change• Climate change in ESA regions• Adaptation interventions

Climate change: Is it happening? The Global Climate System

Climate change: Is it happening? The Greenhouse effect

4

Natural Climate Fluctuations – Example of El Niño and La Niña

Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website

Climate change: Is it happening? Anthropogenic Greenhouse gases - Agriculture

6

Climate change: Is it happening? The Greenhouse effect

Climate overview Global Observing System

1.5º

6º

Fact #1: The climatic context for agriculture is changing rapidly

Sea level rise: Fastest recorded rise

in the 1990s (4mm/yr)

Decline of glaciers and arctic sea ice 2000-2010: Hottest decade on record

Fact #2: These changes are more than ‘future music’. They are real, and they are happening now.

May 2014 – hottest yet

Climate Change

buzzwords and fuzzwords

Climate Change and Global Warming

Global Warming

Refers to the overall warming of the planet,

based on average temperature over the entire surface of the

Earth

Climate Change

Refers to changes in climate characteristics, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind,

and severe weather events over long term

periods

Further information: WMO Website

Climate change: Is it happening? Definition of Key terminologies

Weather: the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time as regards heat, cloudiness, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc. "if the weather's good we can go for a walk“

Synonym of weather: Meteorological & atmospheric conditionsClimate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather”

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)

CLIMATE

Weather Weather Weather

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Vulnerability: a condition (based on physical, social, economic and environmental factors) which determines the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a particular hazard (= the degree of expected damage from a hazard)

Climate risk: the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from interactions between climate hazards and vulnerable conditions.

Climate resilience: the ability of a system (household, community, farm, value chain, ecosystem) to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from the effects of a climate shock or stress  

Adaptive capacity: the ability of a system to adjust, modify or change its characteristics to moderate potential damage or cope with the consequences of a climate shock or stress.

Vulnerability, Risk, Resilience

Climate hazards, shocks and stresses

Climate hazards: Climate phenomena that may result in losses and damages to livelihood systems. Comprised of both shocks and stresses

Climate shocks (climate extremes, extreme weather events): Rapid onset floods, storms, wave surges, rainfall-induced landslides, hailstorms, frost, forest/scrub fires; Slow onset agricultural/ meteorological/hydrological drought, heat waves

Some shocks are biologically induced but compounded by climatic factors (pest infestations, water- borne or vector-borne diseases).

Climate stresses: Persistent occurrence of lower-intensity damaging events (soil erosion, degradation of coastal ecosystems, salinization of soils & groundwater, glacial melt, soil evaporation, ocean acidification, species migration, sea level rise)

Two Broad Responses to Climate Changes

Actions taken to cut net emissions of greenhouse gases to reduce climate change and to preserve and enhance

GHG sinks and reservoirs

Actions taken to help cope with changing climate conditions and impacts

Mitigation Adaptation

Source: UNITARSource: UNEP

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Some common climate change ‘fuzzwords’

‘Climate-smart’: Coined by FAO and WB to describe agricultural systems which a) increase productivity, b) increase resilience to climate change, and c) reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Has raised contention about large-scale industrial agriculture as mitigation ‘business’

To ‘climate-proof’ something: shorthand for protecting investments (e.g. infrastructure) from adverse climatic effects. Problematic, as very little investments in rural development are impervious to climate effects

‘Natural disasters’: Invokes the notion that nature alone is responsible for climate-related disasters. Disasters are socially constructed - Natural hazards meet with vulnerable conditions. There are root causes for this vulnerability, which development projects need to understand & address.

Different approaches to Adaptation Programming

Autonomous Adaptation

Based on a set of available technology and management options.

Implemented by individuals only if considered cost-effective

Planned Adaptation

Deliberate actions by local, regional and/or national institutions

Decisions are made through modified institutions and incentives, often based on climate risk analysis –WAMPP Lesotho

Increasing infectious, water-borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress &

mortality, additional public health costs

PUBLIC HEALTH FORESTRY

Changes in forest composition,

extent, health & productivity; forest

fires

WATERRESOURCES

Variability in water supply, quality & distribution; growing competition

and risks of conflicts; transboundary water management problems

COASTALSYSTEMS

Erosion, inundation, salinisation; stress

on mangroves, marshes, wetlands

ECOSYSTEMSERVICES

Loss of habitat, species and protective

ecosystems; migratory shifts

AGRICULTURE

Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation

demand, growing risk of pest infestations

Global warming is not just a problem for agriculture. It impacts on IFAD’s core business in various ways

Climate change: Who is responsible

How will climate change effect these countries?

Temperatures are rising(predicted temp change by 2070 – 99)

+3.5

+3.8

+3.9

+4

+4.1

+3.25

Extreme weather conditions are becoming more frequent.

More rainfall in some areas

Less rainfall in others

Sea levels are rising

The ocean is becoming more acidic

IFAD works with 22 countries in ESA.Population 399 millionRural population 70%43% estimated to be living on less than $1.25/day:

IFAD’s mission:Rural Poverty Reduction.

If existing practices continue, what is the expected impact of climate change on Crop Yields?

Remember this is a generalization at the regional scale!

This spatial variability map of Southern Zimbabwe shows how monthly rainfall amounts varied considerably over a 25km2 catchment in the month of January 2008. (ICRISAT 2008)

There is enormous heterogeneity within each country.

How will climate change affect rural livelihoods?

Less ocean resources

More shocks

Land degradation

Lower yields

Habitat loss

Biodiversity loss

Less wildlife

Loss of tourist revenue

Water stress

Loss of assets

INCREASE IN POVERTY, INEQUALITY AND VULNERABILITY

More pests and diseases

How could climate change affect smallholder farmers in ESA?

Maladaptation

Rural development increases smallholder resilience to climate risks

Climate Change has positive effects on rural development

Rural development does not increase (or even reduces) smallholder resilience to climate risks

IFAD projects are affecting resilience to climate change

(an entry point for improving what we are doing already)

IFAD projects are being affected by climate change

(a new reality we need to consider in our programming)

Climate Change has negative effects on rural development

PROTECT CAPITALIZE

UPSCALEREDUCE

What do we need to think about as we assess climate change and other environmental challenges?

How are climate events interrupting access to markets?

How robust is our infrastructure?

How sustainable is the use ofnatural resources in a more hostile climate?

What is Plan B for crop failures?

No development without adaptive

capacity

Physical and Social characteristics of ESA countries that will influence the impact of climate change….

El Nino effect

Soil degradation

Adaptive capacity

Gender inequality

Natural resource management

Infrastructure

Governance

Investment

Population growth and urbanisation Economic growth

and innovation ?

57%

31%

27%

25%

Promising approaches…

HELPING PEOPLE MAKE DECISIONS

NEW PERSPECTIVES

MAKING USE OF CLIMATE FINANCE

SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT

RISK MANAGEMENT

Better data collection and sharing

Using local expertise

Landscape level and value chain analysis.

Context specific planning

Focus on adaptive capacity

Appreciation of special needs of urban/periurban agriculture

Vulnerability analysisGender analysis

and inclusion

GIS

Water use

Soil fertility

Agroforestry

Maintain biodiversityseed varieties

Livelihood diversification

… and the deployment of technologies, resources and capacities to manage them better.

Early Warning systems/ Better disaster management

Access to better weather information

New types of social safety nets

Alternative Energysources

Climate resilientcrop options

More robust / flexible infrastructure

Diversified livelihoodsBetter post-harvest protection

Example – Helping people make decisions

Participatory scenario planning in Northern Kenya brings together meteorologists, community members, local government departments and NGOs to discuss climate forecasts and prepare jointly for different scenarios. (facilitated by CARE ALP)

Photo courtesy of CARE ALP

ICT reinforces traditional Maasai adaption strategies in Tanzania (IFAD funded project.

Installing a phone tower..

Photo courtesy Mwanzo Millinga, IFAD

http://www.ifad.org/climate/regions/esa/index.htm

Example - New Perspectives

Context specific analysis by Agriwaters project identifies identified potential to enhance traditional river diversion schemes in Tanzania.

Photo credit. Engineers without borders, USA

An IFAD funded project in Madagascar uses a landscape approach to address crosscutting and related issues such as land management and soil erosion and conflicts between farmers and herders.

Photos courtesy of IFAD/R Ramasomanana

Example – Tools

GIS tools have been used to enhance data sharing for planning and monitoring in IFAD projects in Kenya and Tanzania.

Map showing survival rates of trees in reforestation sites in Aberdare and Mt Kenya area (courtesy AWF)

ACCRA NGO alliance has developed a framework for assessing local adaptive capacity which can be used to identify context specific priorities.

Example - Sustainable land management practices have potential to reduce emissions and mitigate the negative impacts or climate change by increasing yields.

The IPCC estimates that improved agricultural and land management practices in SSA could make a significant contribution to reducing global emissions and sequestering carbon.

Mainstreaming conservation farming has led to a near doubling of maize yields in Zambia since 1990.

Photos courtesy of Conservation Farming unit.

Example – Enhancing risk management

Safety nets programmes in Kenya and Ethiopia are targeted at the most vulnerable households allowing them to weather shocks and maintain assets.

Weather insurance is providing a new option for both individual households and governments to insure themselves against climatic shocks. Sako Dabasso Halake with her livestock insurance payout,

Marsabit (photo credit: Jeff Haskins/ Burness communications).

Example – making use of climate finance

Private carbon offset funds are financing reforestation in Kibale forest, Uganda.

Photo courtesy Kate Holt, Climate Care

Use of GEF funds allowed the MKEPP project in Kenya to use a landscape level approach.

Putting our policy into practice… What do we need to do?

What are the key climate change and environmental issues in Country X today?

What is YOUR role?

What is IFAD’s role in supporting drivers of positive change?

What are stakeholders in ESA doing to respond to the challenges of climate change?What are the most promising approaches?

The challenges and priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in Country XXXXX