The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans.

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<ul><li> Slide 1 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration October 16, 2007 Calgary, Alberta Accenture Energy Advisory Board </li> <li> Slide 2 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 2 Menu U.S. Climate Science, Technology, and Policy State of the Science U.S. Climate Initiatives 20 in 10 Plan Climate Change Technology Program Energy Policy Act of 2005 Advanced Energy Initiative 110 th Congress Post-Kyoto Framework: New International Directions Major Economies Meeting UNFCCC and the Montreal Protocol Technology Transfer Adaptation Strategies GEOSS </li> <li> Slide 3 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 3 State of the Science Bottom Line: there is general scientific agreement that anthropogenic activities are increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and driving climate change. Areas of Uncertainty: Sensitivity of global systems to increased GHG emissions Impacts of identified regional climate changes Timing of impacts and rate of changes Magnitude of changes and impacts at specific scales Research: research is crucial to understanding the impacts of climate change and guiding public policy. Climate Change Science ProgramWorlds largest climate science research Program. Funded at approximately $1.7 billion/year ($10.7 Billion 2002-2006). </li> <li> Slide 4 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 4 U.S. Climate Initiatives 20 in 10 Reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 20% in 10 years Promote alternative fuels Increase CAFE standards Climate Change Technology Program Multi-agency research and development program; funded at approximately $3 billion/year Goals include: Reducing emissions from energy use and supply Capturing and sequestering CO 2 Improving capability to measure &amp; monitor GHG Energy Policy Act of 2005 $10 billion in clean technology tax incentives Requires use of 7.5 billion gallons of renewable fuel (ethanol and biodiesel) to be used in gasoline by 2012 Provides 30% tax credit for installation of alternative fuel stations (up to $30,000/year). Federal Energy Management Plan Federal Government is the largest energy consumer in U.S. Plan promotes energy efficiency and use of renewable energy resources at federal sites. </li> <li> Slide 5 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 5 U.S. Climate Initiatives: Advanced Energy Initiative Fueling Vehicles Develop advanced battery technology for plug-in electric hybrid vehicles (40 mile range solely on battery charge) Make cellulosic ethanol competitive with corn-based ethanol by 2012 Make hydrogen fuel cell vehicles widely available by 2020. Powering Homes &amp; Businesses Clean coal technology FutureGen: public-private partnership to develop technologies for coal-fired power plants that capture and store CO 2, rather than release it into the atmosphere Develop a Global Nuclear Energy Partnership, and improve the domestic regulatory process Reduce the cost of solar and other renewable energy sources. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Hydrokinetic Offshore wind Hydrokinetic Generator Kinetic Energy Systems Offshore Wind Farm Nantucket Two pronged approach: (1) change the way vehicles are fueled; and (2) change the way homes and businesses are powered. </li> <li> Slide 6 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 6 Climate Bills in the 110 th Congress </li> <li> Slide 7 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 7 Stabilization Triangle Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative, The Stabilization Triangle: Tackling the Carbon and Climate Problem With Todays Technologies. Available at http://www.summits.ncat.org/docs/Wedges_Concept_Gam e_Materials_2005.pdf </li> <li> Slide 8 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 8 Todays TechnologyActions that Provide 1 Gigaton / Year of Mitigation Coal-Fired Power Plants Build 1,000 zero-emission 500-MW coal-fired power plants (in lieu of coal-fired plants without CO 2 capture and storage) Geologic Sequestration Install 3,700 sequestration sites like Norways Sliepner project (0.27 MtC/year) Nuclear Build 500 new nuclear power plants, each 1 GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants without CO 2 capture and storage) Efficiency Deploy 1 billion new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of 20 mpg Wind Energy Install capacity to produce 50 times the current global wind generation (in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO 2 capture and storage) Solar Photovoltaics Install capacity to produce 1,000 times the current global solar PV generation (in lieu of coal- fired power plants without CO 2 capture and storage) Biomass fuels from plantations Convert a barren area about 15 times the size of Iowas farmland (about 30 million acres) to biomass crop production CO 2 Storage in New Forest Convert a barren area about 30 times the size of Iowas farmland to new forest *Giga-Tonnes = 10 9 Metric-Tonnes (1000 Kilograms)**See CCTP Strategic Plan p. 38. 8 How Big is a Gigaton*? Using Todays Technology, These Actions Can Cut Emissions by 1 GtC/Year** 8 </li> <li> Slide 9 </li> <li> The Post-Kyoto Framework: New International Directions </li> <li> Slide 10 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 10 The Future of International Climate Policy President Bushs Vision has 3 Components: Create post-2012 framework among major economies by the end of 2008 Strengthen U.N. climate initiatives Advance global adoption of clean energy technologies The new direction in climate policy must enhance energy security and promote economic development. </li> <li> Slide 11 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 11 Post-Kyoto Framework: Major Economies Meeting 17 major economies represented, including the U.N. Launched process to identify long-term global GHG emissions reduction goals (e.g., 2050). Discussed commitments to national mid-term goals with binding elements (e.g., 2020, 2030), according to national circumstances. Each country to establish its own targets, goals, and programs that are binding domestically. Discussed need to harmonize emission measurement and accounting systems. Participants focused on five key areas: low carbon fossil power generation, transportation, land use, market penetration and energy efficiency, and finance. </li> <li> Slide 12 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 12 Post-Kyoto Framework: Major Economies Meeting Key Points for a long-term GHG reduction goal: Guided by Article 2 of the UNFCCC; Science-based; Underpinned by environmentally effective and measurable near- and mid-term actions; Take into account countries differing circumstances and common but differentiated responsibilities and capabilities; Understand the future availability of key low carbon technologies, and the feasibility of delivering technologies at different scales and time periods; Take into account the costs of adaptation in the context of broader development strategies. Take into account historical cumulative emissions, per capita emissions, and development needs of developing countries. Next Steps The participants agreed that there is value in convening another meeting of Major Economies after the U.N. climate meetings in Bali. </li> <li> Slide 13 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 13 Post-Kyoto Framework: UNFCCC &amp; The Montreal Protocol Conference of the Parties in Bali, December 2007 Report outcome of Major Economies Meeting New MEM Framework will Reinforce Existing Work Programs in the U.N. Land Use Sustainable forest and agricultural management, stop deforestation and illegal logging Adaptation Build on international development principles Technology Sharing and Energy Efficiency Tools to open and accelerate markets for technology Montreal Protocol Parties recently agreed to accelerate deadlines for phasing out HCFCs. </li> <li> Slide 14 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 14 Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum: focused on CO 2 capture &amp; storage. International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy: organizes, coordinates, and leverages hydrogen R&amp;D programs. Generation IV International Forum: devoted to R&amp;D on next generation of nuclear systems. ITER: project to develop fusion as a commercial energy source. Methane to Markets: recovery and use of methane from landfills, mines, oil and gas systems, and agriculture. Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development &amp; Climate: accelerates deployment of technologies to address energy security, air pollution, and climate change. Global Bioenergy Partnership: Italian G8 initiative to support wider, cost effective, biomass and biofuels deployment, particularly in developing countries. Global Nuclear Energy Partnership: U.S. initiative to develop worldwide consensus on enabling expanded use of economical, carbon-free nuclear energy to meet growing electricity demand, using a nuclear fuel cycle that enhances energy security and promotes non-proliferation. 14 Post-Kyoto Framework: International Partnerships </li> <li> Slide 15 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 15 Post-Kyoto Framework: Technology Transfer Developing Nations Must be Part of the New Equation! Develop Transformational Technology Increase global R&amp;D funding and cooperation Expand Low-Cost Finance Options Focus existing development resources and private resources Consider new low-cost capital sources to finance investment in transformational technologies (e.g., development banks, OPIC) Transfer Technology Globally Eliminate tariffs and remove non-tariff barriers to cleaner energy and environmental technologies and services Launch global effort to share government-developed and owned technologies at low or no cost </li> <li> Slide 16 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 16 Government Energy R&amp;D in Selected Industrialized Countries,1974-2004 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration </li> <li> Slide 17 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 17 Post-Kyoto Framework: Adaptation Strategies CarbonTrackerEl Nino Forecast It may be too late to avoid dangerous climate changereducing carbon dioxide emissions is part of the solution. Another part is adaptation, but we haven't addressed that. Claude Mandil, Former IEA Executive Director The worlds climate will continue to change for the next 50 years, regardless of any mitigating efforts we make now. The lag in the climate system makes adaptation essential, particularly in addressing near-term impacts. Sound adaptation policies must rest on sound science. We need better data for better decision making. </li> <li> Slide 18 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 18 Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) A distributed system of systems Improves coordination of observation systems Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and satellite networks Identifies gaps in our global capacity Facilitates exchange of data and information Improves decision-makers abilities to address pressing policy issues GEONetCast Worldwide information distribution </li> <li> Slide 19 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 19 Why Earth Observations? Prediction Worldwide agricultural benefits of better El Nio forecasts are conservatively estimated at $450-$550 million/year Annual costs of electricity could decrease by $1 billion if we could improve the accuracy of weather forecasts by one degree Fahrenheit. (Source: USA Today) Prevention More than 90% of natural disaster-related deaths occur in developing countries. Preparedness More than 50% of the worlds population lives within 60 km of the shoreline; this could rise to 75% by the year 2020. </li> <li> Slide 20 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 20 The Path Forward Economic growth, sustainable development, energy security, and climate change can and must be pursued in an integrated manner. Therefore, we need: A visionary long-term approach, based on innovation, growth, and international cooperation; Leadership from developed nations and meaningful participation from developing nations; A variety of near-term actions, augmented by financial incentives; Increased investment in clean energy technology; and A recognition that one size wont fit all: national/regional strategies are needed. 20 </li> <li> Slide 21 </li> <li> Questions? </li> <li> Slide 22 </li> <li> Additional Slides </li> <li> Slide 23 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 23 World CO 2 Emissions: 2003-2030 Source: Energy Information Administration, 2006 International Energy Outlook </li> <li> Slide 24 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 24 Energy Market Share by Source Source: Energy Information Administration, at http://www.eia.doe.gov\basics\energybasics101.html </li> <li> Slide 25 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 25 Energy Consumption By Sector Source: Energy Information Administration, at http://www.eia.doe.gov\basics\energybasics101.html </li> <li> Slide 26 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 26 U.S. Energy Trends Through 2030 Projected Population Increase: 23 % Projected Energy Consumption Increase: 31% Biofeuls and other nonhydroelectric renewables projected to grow rapidly Sales of alternative vehicle technologies will account for nearly 28% of new light duty vehicle sales However, oil, coal, and natural gas still projected to supply 86% of U.S. energy in 2030 Imports of energy will constitute 32% of total U.S. energy demand Source: Energy Information Administrations Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007). These projections are from the reference case, which assumes that current energy policies impacting the sector remain unchanged throughout the analysis period. See http://www.eia.doe.gov/ </li> <li> Slide 27 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 27 Cost: Potential 100-Year Reductions Comparative Analysis of Estimated Cumulative Costs Over the 21st Century of GHG Mitigation, With and Without Advanced Technology, Across a Range of Hypothesized GHG Emissions Constraints 27 Source: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DOE), Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios. Available at http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/data/publications/CCTP_Final_Report_041007.pdf </li> <li> Slide 28 </li> <li> The Challenge of Climate Change 28 Scale of Biomass Land Area Land Use Scenario ~550 ppmv From Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5% annual agricultural activity growth </li> </ul>

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