the challenge of building presidential approval in mexico...

THE CHALLENGE OF BUILDING

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL IN MEXICO: THE

CASE OF EPN

March, 2014

1

PRESENTED AT LSE’S MEXICO’S WEEK

Presidential Approval

March 2014

2

THE PUZZLES

• Why did Peña Not Enjoy a Honeymoon?

• Why Calderón Did Start with a Higher Approval Level if He Won by a Slight Margin and Among an Ugly Post-Electoral Conflict?

• Why Peña Is Losing Popular Support?


March 2014

3

Presidential Approval (% “Approve”). Quarterly data Source: Consulta Mitofsky

42 (NA) 44 43

31

70

63 62 59

45

58

65 66

59 61

53

57 56

50

48

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q5

% P

resi

den

tial

Ap

pro

val

Zedillo Fox Calderón Peña

Felipe Calderón

Enrique Peña Vicente Fox

Ernesto Zedillo


March 2014

4

Presidential Approval – Felipe Calderón and Enrique Peña Source: Buendía & Laredo

56 55 55

50

44

14 11 10

13 10

29 33 34

37

46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FEB 2013 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2014

Enrique Peña Nieto

Approve Neither approve nor disapprove Disapprove

59

68

63

57

66

12 9

15

8

13

27

21 20

33

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


Felipe Calderón Hinojosa

Approve Neither approve nor disapprove Disapprove

DK/NA not shown


March 2014

5

Presidential Approval - Enrique Peña Nieto Sources: BGC, Buendía & Laredo, Consulta, GEA-ISA, Ipsos Bimsa, Parametría and Reforma


March 2014

6

Poll of Polls – Enrique Peña Dynamic Bayesian Measurement Model (Kalman Filter) estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Gibbs Sampler).

• Dynamic Bayesian Measurement Model (Kalman Filter) estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo. – Pooling polls to increase precision – Estimating and adjusting for House Effects (question wording,

response categories, etc.) – Tracking the trends and fluctuations through a dynamic model

(aka random walk)

• Jackman, Simon. "Pooling the polls over an election campaign." Australian Journal of Political Science 40.4 (2005): 499-517.

• Beck, Nathaniel, Simon Jackman, and Howard Rosenthal. "Presidential approval: the case of George W. Bush." Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, Davis, CA. 2006.


March 2014

7

Poll of Polls –Enrique Peña Nieto Dynamic Bayesian Measurement Model (Kalman Filter) estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Gibbs Sampler).


March 2014

8

THE CHALLENGE OF REFORMING

• Reforming Is a Tricky Business

1) The Benefits of Reform Are in the Future but Its Costs Are Felt from the Very Beginning

2) Costs of Reform Are Usually Concentrated among a Few but its Benefits are Dispersed among Many


March 2014

9


• Take for Instance Education Reform: Teachers are paying the costs of reform but the benefits of reform are still to be seen. How many years until we see any benefit?

• Further, who the beneficiaries of Education Reform will Be: students, their parents? Will They Mobilize to Support Reform?

• When Will People Notice that Reforms Are Being Sucessful?


March 2014

10


• Public Support for Reforms Will Depend on Expectations

The real challenge is to build those expectations (NAFTA) Will Mexicans think in inter-temporal terms, that is, will accept the pain of reform now in exchange for a brighter future? THE SHORT ANSWER IS NO


March 2014

11

In your opinion, what is ___ thing Enrique Peña Nieto has done as President so far? Open-Ended Question [% of responses on matters related to Structural Reforms] Source: Buendía & Laredo

3

6

0

2 2 2 3

5 5

13 12

15

4

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


The worst thing…

Education Reform Energy Reform

Fiscal Reform All/Other

9

7

5

9 8

1 1 1 2

3

1

4 4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


The best thing…

Education Reform Energy Reform

Fiscal Reform All/Other

Fiscal Reform

Energy Reform Education Reform

Fiscal Reform

Energy Reform Education Reform


March 2014

12

In your opinion, what is the worst thing Enrique Peña Nieto has done as President so far? Source: Buendía & Laredo

7

10

7 8 8 7

11

5

23

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


High prices / Inflation Structural Reforms Social Policy

Public Security

Current Events

Corruption

Jobs and the economy


March 2014

13

In your opinion, what is the best thing Enrique Peña Nieto has done as President so far? Source: Buendía & Laredo

5

1 2

1 2

10 8 8

15 15

4 3

4 4 6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Jobs and Economy

Structural Reforms

Social Policy

Public Security

imprisonment of Elba Esther G.

Public Works

Pact for Mexico


March 2014

14

In your opinion, what is the best thing Enrique Peña Nieto has done as President so far? ¿And the worst? Source: Buendía & Laredo

43

48

55

47

54

38 44

49

63

74


Total positive responses Total negative responses


March 2014

15

Imprisonment of Elba Esther Gordillo and the Pact for Mexico [% of responses related to both issues] Source: Buendía & Laredo

2 2

1

0 0

2

4

6

8

10

FEB 2013 MAY AGO NOV FEB 2014

Imprisonment of Elba Esther Gordillo

3 3

2

1

0 0

2

4

6

8

10

FEB 2013 MAY AGO NOV FEB 2014

Pact for Mexico

In your opinion, what is the best thing Enrique Peña Nieto has done as President so far?


March 2014

16

WHAT WENT WRONG?

• 1) You build expectations by denouncing the Statu Quo.

• People will perceive the future as a better alternative if the present is really bad.

• EPN has achieved many reforms but he does not present himself as a reformer.

• He is not an outsider but rather works “within the system”.


March 2014

17

WHAT WENT WRONG?

• Take energy reform: even if people are really unhappy with Pemex’s and CFE`s efficiency the official narrative has not emphasized it. Rather than rejecting the statu quo the official narrative initially embraced Lazaro Cárdenas!

• NO POSITIVE EXPECTATIONS FOR REFORM WERE BUILT


March 2014

18

Indicators of the Consumer Confidence Index (December 2012-February 2014) Source: INEGI (Census Bureau)

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

DEC

201

2

JAN

201

3

FEB

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

201

4

FEB

Economic Evaluation - Household

Retrospective Prospective

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

DEC

201

2

JAN

201

3

FEB

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

201

4

FEB

Economic Evaluation - Country

Retrospective Prospective


March 2014

19

WHAT WENT WRONG?

• 2) A Tactical Mistake: to link the reform process to tax and price increases. People obviously don’t believe that gas and electricity prices will decrease in the future when the reforms have been accompanied by important price increases in this and other areas.

• People may be tolerant to price increases if they are told that the current situation is untenable (rejection of statu quo). But no one is doing that.


March 2014

20

As you may know, late last year the Energy Reform was approved. Do you think that due to the changes to the law the price of ____ will increase or diminish? Source: Buendía & Laredo

-77

-68

-73

11

15

14

Gasoline

Electrical Energy

Gas

Increase Diminish


March 2014

21

Do you associate the ____ with something positive or negative? (% among who know each Reform) Source: Buendía & Laredo

*Difference among “Positive” november 2013

-33

-57

-69

-49

63

39

25

40

Education Reform

Energy Reform

Fiscal reform

Electoral Reform

Negative Positive Difference*

-8

-13

-8

-11


March 2014

22

WHAT WENT WRONG?

• Under the above conditions we should expect a traditional pattern to occur: when things get bad people will turn against the president. Deterioration of economic conditions will lead to loss of presidential support.

• THIS IS WHAT IT HAS HAPPENED. WE CAN EASILY EXPLAIN PEÑA’S LOSS OF SUPPORT WITH THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX!


March 2014

23

Net Approval Ratings (Poll of Polls) and Consumer Confidence Index December 2012-February 2014

24 22 22 23

20 19 16

18 16

10

0 -1

-6 -7 -10

-30

0

30

DEC

20

12

JAN

201

3

FEB

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

201

4

FEB

Net Approval Ratings

99 100

95.5 95.4 95.7 95.2

93.3

98 97.4

94.1

91.2

88.7 89.7

84.5 84.52

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

DEC

20

12

JAN

201

3

FEB

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

201

4

FEB

Consumer Confidence Index


March 2014

24

Net Approval Ratings (Poll of Polls) and Consumer Confidence Index December 2012-February 2014

y = 2.34x - 208 R² = 0.85

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102

Net

Ap

pro

val R

atin

g



March 2014

25

CALDERON’S PRESIDENCY Net Approval Ratings (Poll of Polls) and Consumer Confidence Index January 2007-November 2012

y = 0.36x - 5.34 R² = 0.09

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110

Net

Ap

pro

val R

atin

g



March 2014

26

Net Approval Ratings (Poll of Polls) and Consumer Confidence Index

y = 1.2x – 86 R² = 0.39

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 100 105 110

Net

Ap

pro

val R

atin

g


Felipe Calderón (Jan 2007-Feb 2008)

y = 2.3x - 208 R² = 0.85

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

80 85 90 95 100 105

Net

Ap

pro

val R

atin

g


Enrique Peña (Jan 2013-Feb 2014)


March 2014

27

A TALE OF TWO NARRATIVES CALDERÓN VS PEÑA

• Why Calderón’s approval was not as sensitive to economic conditions as Peña’s?

• 1) Peña did run on the basis of performance: efficacy. He wanted to be seen as someone who delivers. Indeed you can say this is a feature closely associated to many PRI campaigns/politicians (Zedillo: “él sí sabe cómo hacerlo”).

• 2) Peña´s message as President has emphasized structural reforms, that is, reforms designed to improve the performance of the economy. He emphasized structural reforms to avoid talking about security issues.


March 2014

28


• 3) Calderón on the other hand did not emphasize the economy. And when the economy deteriorated he assigned blame elsewhere:

International Economic Conditions, “la crisis que vino de fuera” Congress as an obstacle to reforms to promote growth. People may be more receptive to this argument if it comes from a non-PRI politician as the PRI usually has had enough power to block constitutional reforms. It was Fox after all who said: “El presidente propone y el Congreso dispone”.


March 2014

29

CALDERON AND PUBLIC SECURITY

• DID PUBLIC SECURITY INFLUENCE CALDERON’S PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL?


March 2014

30

R² = 0.1507

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108

Net

Ap

pro

val R

atin

g

Public Security Perception Index

Net Approval Ratings (Poll of Polls) and Public Security Perception Index


March 2014

31


• The big question then is why the deterioration of public security conditions did not greatly affect Calderón’s approval?

• 1) Calderon did forcefully reject the status quo: The country could not afford looking the other away.

• 2) People blamed the PRI regime for the statu quo on drugs. • 3) People were patient. They were aware that it would take

several years to see positive results. • 4) Drug-related violence was framed in intertemporal

terms: “si ves que hay polvo es porque estoy limpiando la casa”.


March 2014

32

CONCLUSIONS

• IT IS THE ECONOMY!

• IT IS THE NARRATIVE: THE MESSAGE MATTERS!

the challenge of building presidential approval in mexico...

Documents