the case of the curious correlations
DESCRIPTION
When it comes to energy business, and especially electricity, things can get a little odd sometimes. Higher temperatures mean people are going to need more power. Lower temperatures, less power. Right. Usually. But not always. Sometimes you might need an expert to make sense of your data.TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Case of the Curious Correlations
![Page 2: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Is this what you would expect?
R²#=#0.88355#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#Temperature)@)DFW)(degrees)F))
2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)#
![Page 3: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The miracle of air conditioning
R²#=#0.88355#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#Temperature)@)DFW)(degrees)F))
2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)# Higher temperatures lead
to higher HVAC load
Lower temperatures lead to lower HVAC load
![Page 4: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
But what about this ?
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20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#Temperature)@)DFW)(degrees)F))
2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)#
Why would electric demand start to rise again as the temperature continues to fall ?
And why the weaker correlation ?
Electric heating ? Probably not too much – this is Texas.
![Page 5: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
R²#=#0.88355#
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5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#Temperature)@)DFW)(degrees)F))
2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)# R²#=#0.32024#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Q1?2012)#
R²#=#0.93592#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Q2?2012)#
R²#=#0.90115#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Q3?2012#
R²#=#0.45417#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Q4?2012#
Digging into the data
The tight, positively correlated data is concentrated in Q2 and Q3
![Page 6: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
R²#=#0.88355#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#Temperature)@)DFW)(degrees)F))
2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)# R²#=#0.32024#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Q1?2012)#
R²#=#0.93592#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Q2?2012)#
R²#=#0.90115#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Q3?2012#
R²#=#0.45417#
0#
5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Q4?2012#
Digging into the data
The weaker, negatively correlated data is concentrated in Q1 and Q4
![Page 7: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
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25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#Temperature)@)DFW)(degrees)F))
2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)#
R²#=#0.20403#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
January#
R²#=#0.55973#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
February#
R²#=#0.39612#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
March#
R²#=#0.83112#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
April#
R²#=#0.55973#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
May#R²#=#0.90612#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
June#R²#=#0.76431#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
July#R²#=#0.93766#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
August#
R²#=#0.96721#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
September#
R²#=#0.72922#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
October#
R²#=#0.25539#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
November#
R²#=#0.58202#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
December#
Digging deeper into the data
![Page 8: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
R²#=#0.88355#
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5,000#
10,000#
15,000#
20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#Temperature)@)DFW)(degrees)F))
2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)#
R²#=#0.20403#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
January#
R²#=#0.55973#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
February#
R²#=#0.39612#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
March#
R²#=#0.83112#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
April#
R²#=#0.55973#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
May#R²#=#0.90612#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
June#R²#=#0.76431#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
July#R²#=#0.93766#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
August#
R²#=#0.96721#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
September#
R²#=#0.72922#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
October#
R²#=#0.25539#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
November#
R²#=#0.58202#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
December#
Digging deeper into the data
April looks odd, compared to March and May. Investigate further by looking at 2011 and 2013 data.
![Page 9: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
R²#=#0.88355#
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5,000#
10,000#
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20,000#
25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#Temperature)@)DFW)(degrees)F))
2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)#
R²#=#0.20403#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
January#
R²#=#0.55973#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
February#
R²#=#0.39612#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
March#
R²#=#0.83112#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
April#
R²#=#0.55973#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
May#R²#=#0.90612#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
June#R²#=#0.76431#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
July#R²#=#0.93766#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
August#
R²#=#0.96721#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
September#
R²#=#0.72922#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
October#
R²#=#0.25539#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
November#
R²#=#0.58202#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
December#
Digging deeper into the data
Temperature is dominant driver of electric load in some months . . .
![Page 10: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
R²#=#0.88355#
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25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#Temperature)@)DFW)(degrees)F))
2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)#
R²#=#0.20403#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
January#
R²#=#0.55973#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
February#
R²#=#0.39612#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
March#
R²#=#0.83112#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
April#
R²#=#0.55973#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
May#R²#=#0.90612#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
June#R²#=#0.76431#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
July#R²#=#0.93766#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
August#
R²#=#0.96721#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
September#
R²#=#0.72922#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
October#
R²#=#0.25539#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
November#
R²#=#0.58202#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
December#
Digging deeper into the data
But understanding what drives loads in other months requires more sophisticated models . . .
![Page 11: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
R²#=#0.88355#
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25,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#Temperature)@)DFW)(degrees)F))
2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)#
R²#=#0.20403#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
January#
R²#=#0.55973#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
February#
R²#=#0.39612#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
March#
R²#=#0.83112#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
April#
R²#=#0.55973#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
May#R²#=#0.90612#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
June#R²#=#0.76431#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
July#R²#=#0.93766#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
August#
R²#=#0.96721#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
September#
R²#=#0.72922#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
October#
R²#=#0.25539#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
November#
R²#=#0.58202#
0#
10,000#
20,000#
30,000#
20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
December#
Digging deeper into the data
July correlation significantly weaker than other summer months. Could it be due to Independence day falling on a Wednesday in 2012 ?
![Page 12: The Case of the Curious Correlations](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051400/554ebb58b4c905de468b4721/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
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