The Case of Elderly Workers in

Quebec

The Importance of LMI in Defining Client Group Issues

Bernard Matte, Director of Planning and LMIEmploi-QuébecVancouver, 18 May 2004

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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline• How LMI helps define issues and solutions

• A brief description of the aging-population situation in Quebec

• Emploi-Québec’s Action Strategy for workers aged 45 and over

• Some Strategy-related examples of the use of LMI

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How LMI helps define issues and solutions • LMI: The information needed to ensure an adequate match

between labour force skills and employers’ human resource needs (at the provincial, regional and local levels in Quebec)

• LMI: Four main roles in the Emploi-Québec organization– Across-the-board service: Dissemination of labour market information (LMI

online) to the entire province and to immigration applicants– Input for central, regional and local planning and for policy formulation.– Support for active job-finding measures– Support for job-placement and employment-assistance services

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How LMI helps define issues and solutions

LMI as an across-the-board service• Analysis of the labour market situation

– Macroeconomic indicators– Labour force characteristics (availability, training, etc.)

• Labour market trends– Demographic outlook– Industry-sector and occupational outlooks– Skills in demand, etc.

• Importance of information dissemination as an adaptive strategy for:– Emploi-Québec staff– The other stakeholders (external resources)– Employers– Clients, the general population and immigration applicants.

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How LMI helps define problems and solutions

LMI as input for planning, active job-finding measures and employment-assistance services

• Knowledge of the labour market is a key factor in policy and program planning (e.g., to help fill the gap between skills available and skills in demand)

• However, LMI alone does not ensure that a given client category will find employment

• The mechanism for identifying client groups representing long-term unemployment risks is based on individual socio-professional characteristics (education, professional qualifications, etc.).

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How LMI helps define problems and solutions

• Development of complementary strategiesIt is recognized that membership in a given socio-demographic group can accentuate difficulties in obtaining and keeping a job (e.g. for young people, immigrants, people with disabilities, workers aged 45 and over, etc.).

• Objectives of client-group-based strategies-Adapt our service delivery on the basis of better knowledge of our client groups-Face up to major labour-market challenges.

The aging-population situation in Quebec(in brief)

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A little historical background

• The period from the mid-1960s to the early 2000s has been marked by two major developments:– The mass influx of “baby-boomers” onto the

labour market– The permanent entry of women into the labour

market

• Severe pressure on the labour market caused by an expanding labour force, increased job numbers, higher unemployment, etc.

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High unemployment has helped stimulate withdrawal from the labour market

Participation rate of men aged 55 to 64(1976 - 2003)

4550556065707580

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

%

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

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Around half the workers now retire before the age of 60

Age at Retirement

14

86

64

2846

54

0

20

40

60

80

100

1976 2003

%

Before 60 At 60 or over At 65 or overSource: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

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On the verge of a new era:Different challenges

• Population growth has levelled off.

• The population aged 65 and over is going to explode.

• The working-age population will stop growing in seven years and will decline rapidly thereafter.

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The decline in the population aged 15 to 64 will begin in 2012

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2003 scenario No migrationSource: Institut de la statistique du Québec, Perspectives démographiques 2003.

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From 2003 to 2026, the population aged 15 to 64 will decline more in Quebec’s natural resource regions

Changes in the population aged 15 to 64, 2003 to 2026 (%)

-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

Gaspé - Magdalen Is.

Lower St. Lawrence

Quebec City Region

Chaudière-Appalaches

Eastern Townships

Central Quebec

Montérégie

Montreal

Laval

Lanaudière

Laurentians

Outaouais

Abitibi-Témiscamingue

Mauricie

Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean

North Shore

Northern Quebec

Quebec as a whole

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Anticipated labour-force shortage

Constant-rate changes in the labour force by age group, from 2003 to 2051

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2003

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

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Anticipated labour-force shortage

Participation rate required to avoid a reduction in the labour force (2003 to 2051)

405060708090

100

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036

2039

2042

2045

2048

2051

%

15 to 64 years 15 years +

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Quebec already has one of the highest participation rates compared with that of certain industrialized countries

Participation rate of the 15-64 age-group, by country, in 2002

75.9

77,5

76.4

72.3

71.5

68.0

76.6

61.2

69.8

50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Quecbec

Canada

United States

Japan

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

European Union

%

OECD

*United States and United Kingdom: 16 to 64 years

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Emploi-Québec’s strategy for workersaged 45 and over

• An action strategy, formulated jointly with partners, was launched in January 2003.

• The aim of this strategy is to help workers aged 45 and over, who so wish, either to keep their jobs or rejoin the labour market and to increase the participation rate for this age-group.

• This strategy calls for group-specific lines of action for the various client groups: age-groups (45 to 54, 55 and over), male/female, regions, economic sector and occupational group.

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Lines of action

• Publicize the situation and make the general population and the labour market partners aware of it.

• Take managerial action to meet future human resource needs.

• Adapt employment services and programs.

• Invest more in improving and acknowledging skills.

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Some examples of Strategy-related initiatives using LMI

• Regional surveys of declining labour-force numbers

• Publications on demographic change and work requiring highly qualified workers, a dynamic portrait of the labour market, etc.

• Many seminars on the aging labour force delivered across Quebec and in the various regions: Force Jeunesse, the provincial federation of chambers of commerce, etc.

• Awareness activities for Emploi-Québec personnel

• Training for business advisors (component on managerial action to meet future human-resource needs).

Thank you for your attention