The Canadian Landscape An overview of the latest Canadian economic, business and consumer trends

Shareable with clients under NDA

May 15, 2021

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Key InsightsMay 14, 2021

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The Insights Factory believes that three elements need to hold true to see a full recovery:

© 2021 Google Confidential and ProprietaryThe Canadian Landscape

1.Canadians are free to make choices

2. Canadians are acting free

3.Canadians feel free

Macro indicators(e.g. not restricted & incentivized)

Behavioral indicators (e.g. moving & spending)

Psychological indicators(e.g. optimistic with no anxiety)

Provincial lockdown extended

Consumer spending stagnates

Ontario’s mindset signals decline while QC and BC improve slightly

Employment rates decrease in April

Mobility & car traffic are varied by provinces based on lockdown

Covid continues to make Canadians even more price conscious

Consumer confidence in the economy is still growing

Domestic travel intent declines

Canadians are feeling more pessimistic about restrictions being lifted

Although increased vaccine deployment offers hope, with limited change to restrictions, Canadians regress further into a lockdown state of mind

ONTARIO- As of April 8th, Ontario has declared a state of emergency and a province wide stay-at-home order to further curb the spread of COVID (Extended to May 19th for now)

RESTRICTED CLOSED

QUEBEC* we capture here restrictions for Alert level 4 that are

applicable for Montreal; There is a curfew in place Between 9:30 p.m. and 5 a.m. for all Alert 4 regions

OPEN WITH RESTRICTIONS CLOSED

Source: Updated as of May11th, 2021 BC’s Restart Plan, Reopening Ontario, Containment of *Quebec

BRITISH COLUMBIA

PROVINCE WIDE RESTRICTIONS From March 29th to May 24th (was April 19th earlier) for now

Restrictions Apply

CLOSED

Licensed Child care

Health Services

Retail sector

Sanitation

Manufacturing

Restaurants (T/O, Outdoor Patio & Delivery)

The Canadian Landscape

Extracurricular and sports for U21

Provincial Restrictions

Parks

Auto Dealerships(By appointment only)

Sports facilities (available for special groups only)

RestaurantsTake away, drive through and delivery only)

Overnight Camps

Amusement, Water Parks

Retail stores

Manufacturing & Construction

Individual sports

Gatherings (Outdoor up to 10 allowed)

Gatherings (limited to people from one Household)

Travel: Not recommended

Day/summer camps

Activities in a public place (except for places of worship and funeral)

In person Schooling

Group sports

Support groups

Extracurricular and sports for 22+

Weddings, Funerals & Baptisms

Retail sector (Grocery, Pharmacy and curbside pickup for non-essential retail)

RestaurantsTake away, drive through and delivery only

Provinces continue to be in lockdown with restrictions that were enforced with the onset of the 3rd wave in April

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“No out of Province” Travel Advisory

“Non-Essential” Travel Advisory

Schools & Childcare

After School Programs

Gatherings (limited to people from one Household)\

Cinemas (Open with restrictions)

Lake Ontario

Toronto

Brampton

Barrie

Vaughn

Mississaugua

Oakville

Hamilton

Markham

Oshawa

LegendSize = Volume of search queries

Colour = YoY growth

Moving related searches: From Toronto to other top 10 destinations (DMA)

Source: Google internal data, Moving-related searches from Toronto to other DMAs; 2020;Statistics Canada

COVID and lockdown conditions have reshaped Canadian cities with more movement towards suburbs for space & affordability

Migration analysis

According to Statistics Canada, Oshawa’s population growth rate (year-over-year for 2019-20) was 2.1% - the highest in Canada.

The Canadian Landscape

Consumers new to the neighbourhood are likely causing a rise in generic “____ near me” searches

Furniture stores near me

Pet stores near me

2.4x

1.5x

Hardware stores near me

Grocery stores near me

1.4x

10.3x

Source: Google internal data, DMAs included are Oshawa, Barrie, Hamilton, Vaughn, Oakville vs. Toronto, 2019 vs. 2020

Faster than Toronto

Faster than Toronto

Faster than Toronto

Faster than Toronto

Banks near me 1.9x Cell phone stores near me 1.8xFaster than Toronto Faster than Toronto

Migration analysis The Canadian Landscape

In Canada, differing levels of restrictions in recent weeks have affected the mobility and mindset of people; BC & QC are improving while ON is regressing

The Canadian LandscapeRecovery Signals TALKING POINTS:

go/marketrecoverydoc (with link to dashboard)

Mindset Signals: Looks at search signals to understand the consumers mindset towards external factors (e.g. real estate, protective tools such as masks and disinfectants, online counseling, commerce, sports, lockdown survival).

Mobility Score Signals: Search, Consumer Mobility/Waze and Live Event signals to understand if consumers are moving around and going to different places or sheltered at home (e.g. hotels, retail/recreation, workplaces, transit stations, parks, navigations)

Note that dashboard can be drilled down by province and also compared to select other markets.

Google Data Signals - Recovery Dashboard, as of May 7th Vs April 7th Vs March 5th

This chart uses several real-time Google signals to determine consumers’ mindset and mobility scores. These signals include Google search, Waze, Google Maps.

Pivoting Revival

Accepting & looking to establish a new normal.

Consumers are optimistic.

Transitioning back to the old normal.

Consumers are open.

Crisis Recover

Focused on Survival state.

Consumers are cautious

Lockdown restrictions removed and established New Normal.

Consumers are curious.

For more information about each stage (e.g. messaging), click here.

Revival

RecoverCrisis

Pivoting

QC

ON

BC

Mobility Scores

Min

dset

Sco

res

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Revival

RecoverCrisis

Pivoting

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More Canadians are increasingly settling into a lockdown state of mind. In early May, we see more feeling pessimistic about restrictions being lifted

Source: Ipsos Essential Report May 8-10, 2020 (n=999), June 26-28, 2020 (n=994), May 6-9, 2021 (n=1001) Gen Pop Canadians

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Fewer feel restrictions will be lifted soon

In the US, where vaccine rollout is at 46% one dose, several states have moved towards revival

The Canadian LandscapeRecovery Signals TALKING POINTS:

go/marketrecoverydoc (with link to dashboard)

Mindset Signals: Looks at search signals to understand the consumers mindset towards external factors (e.g. real estate, protective tools such as masks and disinfectants, online counseling, commerce, sports, lockdown survival).

Mobility Score Signals: Search, Consumer Mobility/Waze and Live Event signals to understand if consumers are moving around and going to different places or sheltered at home (e.g. hotels, retail/recreation, workplaces, transit stations, parks, navigations)

Note that dashboard can be drilled down by province and also compared to select other markets.

Google Data Signals - Recovery Dashboard, as of May 7th Vs April 7th Vs March 5th

This chart uses several real-time Google signals to determine consumers’ mindset and mobility scores. These signals include Google search, Waze, Google Maps.

Pivoting Revival

Accepting & looking to establish a new normal.

Consumers are optimistic.

Transitioning back to the old normal.

Consumers are open.

Crisis Recover

Focused on Survival state.

Consumers are cautious

Lockdown restrictions removed and established New Normal.

Consumers are curious.

For more information about each stage (e.g. messaging), click here.

© 2021 Google Confidential and Proprietary

The Canadian Landscape

Source: Waze Traffic Data, Canadal level car trafficThe baseline is the average value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 2- week period February 11, 2020 to February 25, 2020.

Waze traffic data indicates that driving levels are picking up in Canada, and in the US they’re returning to pre-covid levels

Recovery Signals

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Destination Interest among CA respondents

Sources: Google Surveys, see title slide for respondent numbers and fieldwork datesMay 1st 2020 Canada changed methodology to collect answers from Android users. All other results were collected from publisher network.

The Canadian Landscape

Interest in travel is declining as Canadians respond to the third wave of COVID. 27% of Canadians are looking to travel domestically, declining 10% in 4 weeks.

Interest in domestic travel decline begins Interest in domestic

travel is dropping

Travel Intent

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Source: Google Search Data, CA, 2019 - 2021

We see the same trend on search: domestic travel search demand was picking up in Q1’21, then regressed around the same time as the new lockdown

Evolution of Travel Queries, DOMESTIC, CA Evolution of Travel Queries, INTERNATIONAL, CA

The Canadian Landscape

Travel Intent

2021

2021

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In the US, we’re seeing travel pick up significantly

The Canadian Landscape

Travel Intent

Source: Consumer Confidence Index, The Conference Board of CanadaSource: Statscan (Statistics Canada), April 2021, CA

While consumer confidence is increasing, employment has declined due to the third wave of the pandemic

Employment rates decreased in April during third wave of the pandemic

Consumer Confidence in the Canadian economy is growing

The Canadian LandscapeCanadian Economic Indicators

April Employment(monthly change)

-207,000-1.1 points

April Unemployment8.1%+0.6 points

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Source: RBC Economics, RBC Data & Analytics

The Canadian LandscapeConsumer Spending Trends

Containment measures halt spending growth in April

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Lockdown measures across several regions slowed spending in April. After increasing 7% over February and March, retail spending likely declined by about 4% in April as regions restricted in-store foot traffic

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Covid 19, and its associated economic circumstances, have left Canadians even more price conscious

42%of CA consumers say that prices are higher than

normal at this time.+ This has increased significantly from end of

March 2020 where only 20% felt this way.1

1. Google commissioned Ipsos COVID-19 tracker, CA n=1000 online consumers 18+ per market. May 6-9, 2021 vs Mar 19-20 2020

2. Google Data, Global English, Dec 22, 2020 - Feb 19, 2021 vs Dec 22, 2019 - Feb 19, 2020

3. Google Data, Global English, Mar 25, 2020 - May 23, 2020 vs Mar 25, 2019 - May 23, 2019.

+100%Google Maps searches for

“discounts” have grown globally YoY3

+200%Searches for “low budget” have

grown globally YoY2

The Canadian LandscapeConsumer Shopping Trends

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Almost 50% of the Linear TV watchtime has disappeared amongst Canadians under the age of 55

Google ConfidentialShared under NDA The Canadian Landscape

Media Habits

Source: 2020 - Total TV, Live TV, PVR: Numeris PPM, Total Canada, All Locations, Mo-Su 2a-2a, Sept 14, 2020-Dec 20, 2020 (Weeks 3-16) via eMarketer2010/2011 -Numeris (formerly BBM Canada): 30 August 2010 to 28 August 2011, includes all persons 2+, Monday to Sunday, 2 a.m. to 2 a.m.via CRTC ReportingPLEASE NOTE, timeframes were chosen based on the availability of data periods Google has access to

Linear TV Weekly Watchtime Hours