the bursting debt bubble by a true ott phd

8/8/2019 The Bursting Debt Bubble by A True Ott PhD

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-bursting-debt-bubble-by-a-true-ott-phd 1/63

PMI BYR\PKGE @IBP

BYBBCI Dhirkld‛| Eridpi|p @dgeir$



UDRGKGE$$$$ Umdp {ny dri dbnyp pn |ii k|mkemc{ lngprnqir|kdc# dg`

hd{ bi naaig|kqi pn |nhidy`kigli|' Qkiuir `k|lripkngk| d`qk|i`? Kp hd{ uicc ldy|i

dg}kip{ dg` |ciivci|| gkemp|pn qkiuir| ygvrivdri` pn?MDG@CI PMI PRYPM$$$



MK\PNRKLDC KG\KEMP\@dpickgi Nlpnbir#41;6? Pmi Lncngkdc Enqirghigp na Hd||dlmy|ipp| adli` d qir{ erdqi ak|ldc lrk|k| “ kp|hkckpkd |nc`kir| uiri ripyrgkge# ìaidpi` dg` ihvp{(mdgì`# arnh d rdk`kge i}vi`kpkng pn Tyibil dedkg|ppmi Ariglm' Pmi enqirghigp md` d BKE VRNBCIH'Pmi{ md` gn hngi{ pn vd{ pmi |nc`kir| d| vrnhk|i`'-Pmi{ nui` pmih 5#666 Brkpk|m Vnyg`| \pirckge'+Jgnukge pmdp pkri`# dger{# dg` myger{ |nc`kir| lnyc`bi i}prihic{ `dgeirny| pn gng(viranrhkge vnckpklkdg|#

pmi ì|virdpi cidìr| na pmi lncng{ lrdgji` yv pmikrcnldc vrkgpkge vri|| dg` vrn`yli` 5#666 vdvir gnpi|d| d –bkcc‘ pn pmi |nc`kir| -idlm –gnpi‘ rivri|igpi` ngiBrkpk|m Vnyg` “ vd{dbci pn pmi bidrir kg pun {idr|'+



NRKEKGDC –BD[ LNCNG[‘ \NCIHG

VRNHK\I\ HD@I KG 41;6Pmi |nc`kir| uiri ekqig |ncihg NDPM\ b{ pmikrHd||dlmy|ipp| cidìr| umirikg pmi{ uirieydrdgpii` pun pmkge|?4' Pmi vrkgpi` –bkcc‘ nr gnpi vd{dbci unyc`db|ncypic{ bi riìihdbci kg ENC@ nr \KCQIRarnh PD] RIQIGYI kg ci|| pmdg 2 {idr|'2' Db|ncypic{ GN HNRI |ylm vdvir gnpi| unycÌQIR bi vyp kgpn –lkrlycdpkng‘$

Umdp lmnkli `k` pmi |nc`kir| mdqi# ridcc{> Pmiripryc{ ud| gn |kcqir dqdkcdbci pn vd{ pmih “ |kglipmi{ md` adkci` pn edkg pmi pdreipi` AYR\# enc`nr |kcqir arnh pmi Ariglm edrrk|ng dp Tyibil'



@K@ PMI VNCKPKLKDG\ NA 41;6 JIIV

PMIKR VRNHK\I\>> Dapir |iikge pmdp pmi cnldc |mnv| dg` pdqirg|uiri hnri pmdg ukcckge pn dllivp pmi |nc`kir‛|vdvir gnpi| kg ckiy na enc` nr |kcqir lnkg# -pmipdqirg nugir| lnyc` ri`iih pmi gnpi| oy|p d|id|kc{ d| pmi |nc`kir|+ pmi vnckpklkdg| na Hd||dlmy|ipp| tykljc{ ridckzi` pmi{ md` dvnuirayc giu ilngnhkl pnnc -nr uidvng+ dp pmikr`k|vn|dc ((( VDVIR HNGI[$$$Ci|| pmdg 1 hngpm| dapir pmi akr|p 5#666 gnpi|

uiri ekqig pn pmi |nc`kir|# 06#666 d``kpkngdc–bkcc|‘ uiri vrkgpi` dg` –lkrlycdpi`‘ d| vd{higpna lncngkdc enqirghigp nbckedpkng|' Pmk| k| umdpk| jgnug d| –akdp‘ hngi{ “ d Cdpkg unr` anr–dypmnrkpdrkdg enqirghigp `ilrii'‘



IDRC[ HNG J I[ HILMDGKL\ D| pmi 2 g` # hylm cdreir udqi na 06#666 giu gnpi|biedg pn lkrlycdpi “ |mriu` by|kgi|| nugir| |nngbiedg pn \KEGKAKLDGPC[ ìqdcyi -d| hylm d| 16)na adli qdcyi+ pmi vdvir bkcc| q|' eigykgi enc` nr |kcqir

lnkg|' Na lnyr|i# lnhhn`kp{ vrkli| |yrei` d| uicc'Ukpmkg hngpm|# pmi igpkri hdrjip biedg pn rioilpnyprkemp pmi vdvir bkcc| d| –ardy`‘ “ ldy|kge pmivnckpklkdg| pn |dqi adli b{ d`nvpkge ANRLI' B{cdqk|mc{ brkbkge oyèi| pn yvmnc` pmikr –NAAKLKDC@ILRII‘ kg pmi lnyrp|# pmi vnckpklkdg| ìlcdri` pmikr

vdvir pn bi d –ciedc pigìr‘ anr dcc ìbp| “ dg`khhi`kdpic{ erdgpi` d 9) vrihkyh `k|lnygp ng pmignpi| anr DCC lncng{ pd} vd{higp|' By|kgi|| nugir|ìlcdrkge npmiruk|i uiri napig akgi` nr iqig odkci` ngbney| lmdrei| na –`k|pyrbkge pmi vidli‘$



IDRC[ HNG J I[ HILMDGKL\Ai` yv ukpm pmk| lmkldgir{# hdg{ nyp|vnjiglrkpkl| lmn|i pn hnqi arnh pmi lkpki| na Hd||dlmy|ipp| pn pmi –ui|pirg arngpkir‘' Pmi{pnnj pmikr \vdgk|m \kcqir @nccdr| ukpm pmih'Ngli pmi akdp hngi{ –eigki‘ md` biig ricid|i`arnh pmi bnppci “ kp ud| |nng d`nvpi` b{ npmirlncngkdc enqirghigp| d| uicc' Pmi lncngkdcenqirghigp| anrhi` d –cdg` bdgj‘ “ dg` pki` pmivdvir bkcc| pn cdg` pmi{ lngprncci`' B{ pmi hk`

4506‛| –vdvir hngi{‘ kg lkrlycdpkng |ndri` pnhnri pmdg 296 hkcckng Brkpk|m Vnyg`| kg adliqdcyi# iqig pmnyem pmiri ud| ngc{ 2 hkcckngvnyg`| |pirckge kg dlpydc pryi lnkgdei -|kcqir|vilki+ dqdkcdbci$$



PMI \PRYLPYRI NA DHIRKLD

LKRLD 4506



BDRPIR -PRD@I+ UD\LNHHNGVCDLI “ I\VILKDCC[

UKPM PMI KG@KDG PRKBI\



\VDGK\M \KCQIR UD\ VCIGPKAYC DG@\NNG BILDHI PMI LNHHNG

\PDG@DR@K_I@ LNHHN@KP[ ANR PRD@I



UM[ \VDGK\M \KCQIR>>\vdkg md` vriliì` Brkpdkg kg Gnrpm Dhirkldlncngkdck|h dg` |ippcihigp b{ pun ligpyrki|' D|idrc{ d| pmi hk` 41 pm ligpyr{# Lnrpiz dg` Vkzdrnmd` lngtyiri` pmi Dzpil dg` Kgld lycpyri|# dg`vcygìri` pmikr hd||kqi vrilkny| hipdc|'Lnygpci|| –vcdpi aciip|‘ ygcndì` png| na enc` dg`|kcqir pn \vdkg dg` Vnrpyei|i vnrp|'Hnrinqir# \vdkg md` biig nvirdpkge lnkgdeihkgp| ng pmi Dhirkldg lngpkgigp |kgli pmi idrc{

4966‛|' Ariglm dg` Kg`kdg Ayr Prdìr| tykljc{cidrgi` pmdp pmi Igeck|m lncngk|p| unyc` DCUD[\ prdì ideirc{ anr \vdgk|m |kcqir`nccdr|$$ Kg 4= pm ligpyr{ Dhirkld# pmi \vdgk|m\kcqir @nccdr ud| jkge na dcc prdì enn`|'



UMDP NA BRKPK\M LNKGDEI KG

DHIRKLD>Kp ud| bd|kldcc{ kg d qir{ |nrr{ |pdpi “ napig umdp–naaklkdc‘ lnkgdei lkrlycdpi` kg pmi lncngki| uiriunrg dg` –|mdqi`‘ b{ erii`{ –|jkg(ackgp|‘ kg pmi

lncng{# pmi –lrnug|# |mkcckge| dg` adrpmkge|‘ pmdpuiri `k|byr|i` kg pmi –lncngki|‘ uiri napigrioilp| |igp dbrnd` b{ hirlmdgp –lcidrkgemny|i|‘ kg Brkpdkg'

Dllnr`kge pn lncngk|p \piqig Cidji kg d 4509

Bn|png giu|vdvir?



BRKPK\M –MDCA LRNUG‘

LKRLYCDPI@ KG PMI –LNCNGKI\‘ KG4501

Mdca(Lrnug |kcqir lnkg na Einrei KK#4501' Pmi kg|lrkvpkng rid`| EINREKY\KK @IK ERDPKD -Einrei KK b{ pmi Erdlina En`+' Yg`ir pmi Jkge%| mid` k| pmiunr` CKHD# |kegka{kge pmdp pmi lnkg ud||prylj arnh |kcqir |ikzi` arnh pmi\vdgk|m prid|yri aciip naa Ckhd# Viry'



BD\KL ILNGNHKL CDU 464$

KGACDPKNG LDG NGC[ BI LDY\I@ B[ PNNHYLM AKDP# VDVIR HNGI[ VCDLI@ KGLKRLYCDPKNG UKPMNYP DG IGANRLIDBCICKGJDEI PN KGLRID\I@ E@V# PMY\ VDVIR

HNGI[ MD\ GN RIDC# KGPRKG\KL QDCYI$$$Anr i}dhvci# ka 2666 vdvir `nccdr| uiri dcc pmdp ud|dqdkcdbci kg pmk| rnnh# dg` ui dcc derii` pmdp h{|nck` enc` urk|p udplm lnyc` bi vyrlmd|i` anr 4.46-266+ na pmi|i akgkpi `nccdr| “ umdp unyc` mdvvig ka 2666 hnri vdvir `nccdr| |y``igc{ dg` –hdekldcc{‘

dvvidri` DAPIR K md` oy|p |nc` h{ udplm>> -K oy|pcn|p ¸ na h{ udplm‛| dlpydc KGPRKG\KL vyrlmd|kgeqdcyi'+Umdp ka pmi bney| vdvir hngi{ dvvidri` BIANRIpmi udplm |nc` “ dg` K jgiu kp bianrimdg` >>



BNNH DG@ BY\P L[LCI\ DBNYG@Ukpm |ylm d vdvir hngi{ |{|pih# pryc{ |hdrphirlmdgp| kg pmi Lncngki| |nng ridckzi` pmdp umig–giu bkcc|‘ akr|p drrkqi` “ pmi ilngnh{ |ndri` b{ pmk|–enqirghigp |vig`kge‘' \nng# mnuiqir# pmi ilngnh{unyc` |pdegdpi -rilii`+ ygpkc dgnpmir kgay|kng na vdvir –bkcc|‘ unyc` |pkhycdpi dlpkqkp{ dedkg'

Dc|n# kp bildhi rid`kc{ dvvdrigp pmdp ukpm nqir 2'9hkcckng enqirghigp –bkcc|‘ lkrlycdpkge# pmi \VDGK\MLNKG\ vyrlmd|kge qdcyi |ndri`'B{ 4596# pmi ARII HDRJIP vrkli na |kcqir-nrkekgdcc{ |ip dp d vdr ukpm pmi gnpi|+ ud| prd`kge d|

hylm d| 46 pkhi| mkemir pmdg pmi gnpi|$$Kg ci|| pmdg 16 {idr|# pmi Hd||dlmy|ipp| lncng{ md`pyrgi` kp| vrnhk|i pn aycc{ rivd{ kg |vilki -enc` dg`|kcqir lnkg|+ kgpn d lnhvcipi adrli? Kp| gnpi| uiri gnuprd`kge dp ;6) ci|| pmdg pmikr adli qdcyi$$$$



JKGE EINREI KK NA MDGNQIR

PDJI\ DLPKNGAkgdcc{ ridckzkge pmi `k|ryvpkng| na prd`i dg`vrn`ylpkqkp{ pmdp |ylm ak|ldc krri|vng|kbkckp{ ud|ldy|kge kg mk| lncngki|# Jkge Einrei KK ( Jkge na Eridp Brkpdkg dg` Kricdg`# @yji na Bryg|uklj(Cógibyre -Mdgnqir# EIRHDG[ umiri mi ud|bnrg+ dg` Drlmprid|yrir dg` Vrkgli(icilpnr na pmiMnc{ Rnhdg Ihvkri -mk| naaklkdc pkpci arnh 44Oygi 4525 ygpkc mk| `idpm kg 4516+ naaklkdcc{NYPCDUI@ pmi k||yi na DG[ LYRRIGL[ gnp466) bdlji` b{ enc` nr |kcqir'Mnuiqir# pmi jkge‛| deigp| riay|i` pn mngnri}lmdgei| na pmi vdvir hngi{ pn enc` dg` |kcqirukpm pmi Ariglm dg` Kg`kdg prd`kge vdrpgir|'



UDR BIEKG\ BD\I@ NG HNGI[

KGPIRI\PAnccnukge pmi naaklkdc 4=94 hngipdr{ ìlrii na JkgeEinrei KK# mn|pkckpki| bilnhi lnhhngvcdli dedkg|pBrkpk|m kgpiri|p| kg Gnrpmirg –Giu Igecdg`‘i|vilkdcc{ |n dcnge pmi Nmkn –ui|pirg arngpkir‘ ( dg`

pmi –Ariglm dg` Kg`kdg Udr‘ biedg kg 4590 “ dg`naaklkdcc{ cd|pkge ygpkc 451<'Na lnyr|i# udr k| i}vig|kqi# dg` Jkge Einrei KKK# umn|ylliiì` mk| adpmir dg` kgmirkpi` pmi lncngkdc udr#ud| vri|igpi` pmi akgdc bkcc kg 4511'Einrei KKK pnnj pmi vn|kpkng pmdp |kgli pmk| Udr ud|bd|kldcc{ |pdrpi` b{ pmi lncngki|# pmi{ |mnyc` dp cid|pmicv vd{ anr kp' Giu pd}i| uiri |nng khvn|i` “ dgùmklm uiri QKNCIGPC[ NVVN\I@ b{ pmi lncngk|p|'Pmk| iqigpydcc{ ci` pn pmi Riqncypkngdr{ Udr kg 4551$



Hdv |mnukge Brkpk|m pirrkpnrkdc edkg|anccnukge pmi Pridp{ na Vdrk| kg vkgj# dg`\vdgk|m pirrkpnrkdc edkg| dapir pmi Pridp{na Angpdkgibcidy kg {iccnu'



PMNHD\ OIAAIR\NG BIEKG\

URKPKGEOiaair|ng dypmnri` pmi–@ilcdrdpkng na Kgìvigìgli‘ kg 4551#dg` ud| lcidrc{ ngi na pmi ìiv pmkgjir| na mk|pkhi'Mi urnpi? Ariienqirghigp k| anygì`kg oidcny|{# dg` gnp kglngakìgli: kp k| oidcny|{dg` gnp lngakìgli#umklm vri|lrkbi| ckhkpi`lng|pkpypkng|# pn bkg``nug pmn|i umnh uidri nbckei` pn pry|p ukpmvnuir'



HNRI OIAAIR\NG VIDRC\ NA

UK\@NH?–Ka ui ryg kgpn |ylm ìbp| d| pmdp ui hy|p bi pd}i` kg nyrhidp dg` kg nyr `rkgj# kg nyr gili||drki| dg` nyr lnhanrp|# kgnyr cdbnr| dg` nyr dhy|ihigp|# anr nyr ldcckge| dg` nyrlrii`|# d| pmi vinvci na Igecdg` dri# nyr vinvci# ckji pmih#hy|p lnhi pn cdbnr |k}piig mnyr| kg pmi puigp{(anyr# dg` ekqipmi idrgkge| na akapiig na pmi|i pn pmi enqirghigp anr pmikrìbp| dg` `dkc{ i}vig|i|: Dg` pmi |k}piig bikge kg|yaaklkigp pndaanr` y| brid`# ui hy|p ckqi# d| pmi{ `n gnu# ng ndphidc dg`vnpdpni| # mdqi gn pkhi pn pmkgj# gn hidg| na ldcckge pmihk|hdgdeir| pn dllnygp : Byp bi ecd` pn nbpdkg |yb|k|piglib{ mkrkge nyr|icqi| pn rkqip pmikr lmdkg| drnyg` pmi gilj| na nyr aiccnu |yaairir|: Dg` pmk| k| pmi pigìgl{ na dcc myhdgenqirghigp| ' D ìvdrpyri arnh vrkglkvci kg ngi kg|pdglibilnhi| d vriliìgp anr d |ilng`# pmdp |ilng` anr d pmkr`# dg`|n ng %pkc pmibycj na |nlkip{ k| ri`yli` pn hiridypnhdpng| na hk|ir{# pn mdqi gn |ig|kbkckpki| ciap bypanr |kggkge dg` |yaairkge''' dg` pmi anrimnr|i na pmk|arkempayc pidh k| vybckl ìbp' Pd}dpkng anccnu| pmdp# dg` kg kp|prdkg uriplmi`gi|| dg` nvvri||kng'



VCID\I LNG\K@IR?Umig vngìrkge pmi unr`| na Oiaair|ng nqir punmyg`ri` {idr| den# lng|kìr pmi|i i}prihic{|nbirkge ADLP\?Ka IQIR[ LKPK_IG NA DHIRKLD UIRI PNVD[ 466) NA PMIKR ERN\\ KGLNHI PNPMI AI@IRDC ENQIRGHIGP# KP UNYC@GNP BI IGNYEM PN IQIG LNQIR MDCA NAPMI DGGYDC KGPIRI\P NG PMI GDPKNGDC@IBP$$$

Pmi Y'\' Gdpkngdc @ibp k| nui` pn pmi Rnpm|lmkc`Bdgjkge LdrpicPmi Y'\' Enqirghigp ìlcdri` bdgjryvpl{ kg4;<< “ dp pmi ìvpm na pmi –Eridp @ivri||kng'‘



OIAAIR\NG NG BDGJKGE?–Pmi ligprdc bdgj k| dg kg|pkpypkng na pmi hn|pìd`c{ mn|pkckp{ i}k|pkge dedkg|p pmi Vrkglkvci| dgànrh na nyr Lng|pkpypkng' K dh dg Igih{ pn dcc bdgj|`k|lnygpkge bkcc| nr gnpi| anr dg{pmkge byp Lnkg'Ka pmi Dhirkldg Vinvci dccnu vrkqdpi bdgj| pn lngprncpmi k||ydgli na pmikr lyrrigl{# akr|p b{ kgacdpkng dg`pmig b{ ìacdpkng# pmi bdgj| dg` lnrvnrdpkng| pmdpukcc ernu yv drnyg` pmih ukcc ìvrkqi pmi Vinvci na dcc pmikr Vrnvirp{ ygpkc pmikr Lmkc`rig ukcc udjiyv mnhici|| ng pmi lngpkgigp pmikr Adpmir|lngtyiri`'‘–Bdgjkge i|pdbck|mhigp| dri hnri `dgeirny| Zpn pmk|RivybcklX pmdg |pdg`kge drhki|'‘–K uk|m kp uiri vn||kbci pn nbpdkg d |kgeci dhig`higppn nyr lng|pkpypkng pdjkge arnh pmi AiìrdcEnqirghigp pmikr vnuir na BNRRNUKGE'‘



DRI DHIRKLDG\ MNHICI\\

PN@D[>>



D JI[ LNHVNGIGP NA PMI Y'\'

LNG\PKPYPKNG? PN RIEYCDPI HNGI[$$Nrkekgdc Y'\' Lng|pkpypkng

Drp' K \il' = Lc' 9 Z Lngeri|| |mdcc mdqi Vnuir ''' X Pn lnkgHngi{# rieycdpi pmi Qdcyi pmirina# dg` na anrikeg Lnkg# ''':

Drp' K \il' 46 Lc' 4 ZGn \pdpi |mdcc '''X hdji dg{ Pmkge bypenc` dg` |kcqir Lnkg d Pigìr kg Vd{higp na @ibp|: ''' Gnpipmdp pmiri k| gn |ylm vrnmkbkpkng dedkg|p Lngeri||# nr dg{ìciedpi` vnuir pn hdji dg{pmkge ciedc pigìr' Lngeri||ud| nrkekgdcc{ ygìr|pnn` pn mdqi gn vnuir pn hdjidg{pmkge ciedc pigìr nyp|kì na aiìrdc pirrkpnrki|# ygìr

Drp' K \il' = Lc' 45 dg` Drp' KQ \il' < Lc' 2# byp kg 4=1= d\yvrihi Lnyrp vdlji` b{ Vri|' Yc{||i| \' Erdgp# kg pmi

Ciedc Pigìr Ld|i| # dccnui` Lngeri|| pn hdji vdvirlyrrigl{ k||yi` b{ pmi Y'\' Prid|yr{# bdlji` b{ enc` #ciedc pigìr ng |pdpi pirrkpnr{# d vriliìgp pmdp rihdkg|lngprnqir|kdc pn pmk| `d{# d| lnyrp| gnu dccnu vdvirlyrrigl{ gnp bdlji` b{ dg{pmkge pn bi lng|kìri` "ciedcpigìr"'



LNKGDEI DLP NA 45;2 DHIG@I@

Y'\' LNG\PKPYPKNGPmi Dlp dypmnrkzi` vrn`ylpkng na pmi anccnukge lnkg|? Z<

Ideci| 46 205 0.= erdkg -41'6 e+ vyri nr 256 erdkg -45'9 e+ |pdg`dr`enc`Mdca Ideci| 9 42< 1.= erdkg -='62 e+ vyri nr 4<9 erdkg -='59 e+|pdg`dr` enc`

Tydrpir Ideci| 2'96 145

.= erdkg -0'64 e+ vyri nr 150

.= erdkg -0'<5 e+|pdg`dr` enc`@nccdr| nr Ygkp| 4 <54 0.41 erdkg -20'4 e+ vyri nr 041 erdkg -25'6 e+

|pdg`dr` |kcqirMdca @nccdr| 6'96 4=9 46 .41 erdkg -42'6 e+ vyri nr 26= erdkg -4<'9 e+

|pdg`dr` |kcqirTydrpir @nccdr| 6'29 ;2 4< .41 erdkg -1'64 e+ vyri nr 460 erdkg| -1'50

e+ |pdg`dr` |kcqir

@k|hi| 6'46 <5 2.41 erdkg -2'04 e+ vyri nr 04 <.9 erdkg -2'56 e+|pdg`dr` |kcqirMdca @k|hi| 6'69 4= ; .41 erdkg -4'26 e+ vyri nr 26 0.9 erdkg -4'<9 e+|pdg`dr` |kcqirLigp| 6'64 44 vigg{uikemp| -45'4 e+ na lnvvirMdca Ligp| 6'669 9 4.2 vigg{uikemp| -='99 e+ na lnvvir



@K@ [NY JGNU PMDP KG PMI

LNKGDEI DLP NA 45;2?Tydckp{ lngprnc hid|yri| uiri khvcihigpi` kg pmdparnh idlm |ivdrdpi hd|| na enc` nr |kcqir y|i` pnvrn`yli lnkg|# pmrii lnkg| uiri |ip d|kì b{ pmiprid|yrir' Idlm {idr ng pmi cd|p Hng`d{ kg Oyc{#ygìr pmi kg|vilpkng na pmi Lmkia Oy|pkli# pmi\ilripdr{ dg` Lnhvprnccir na pmi Prid|yr{# pmi\ilripdr{ na \pdpi# dg` pmi Dppnrgi{ Eigirdc# pmilnkg| uiri pn bi d||d{i` dg` ka pmi lnkg| `k` gnp hiipi|pdbck|mi |pdg`dr`|# pmi naaklir| uiri`k|tydckaki` arnh naakli'Ayrpmir# d| |vilkaki` kg |ilpkng 4;# pmi vigdcp{ anr

ardy` nr ihbizzcihigp b{ naaklir| nr ihvcn{ii| na pmi hkgp# nr na ìbd|kge nr hdjkge pmi lyrrigl{ pn"bi na ci|| uikemp nr qdcyi " ud| @IDPM ' UM[>>Pmi anyg`kge adpmir| jgiu aycc uicc pmdp ìbd|kge

pmi lyrrigl{ ud| d vrnanyg` dlp na PRID\NG “ d|Oiaair|ng ìlcdri` |n vrnanyg`c{$$$$



ONMG A' JIGGI@[ YG@IR\PNN@?"Anr ui dri nvvn|i`#drnyg` pmi unrc`# b{ dhngnckpmkl dg` rypmci||lng|vkrdl{ pmdp ricki|

vrkhdrkc{ ng lnqirphidg| anr i}vdg`kge kp||vmiri na kgacyigli : kgkgakcprdpkng kg|pid` na kgqd|kng: ng |ybqir|kngkg|pid` na icilpkng|# ngkgpkhk`dpkng kg|pid` na arii lmnkli: ng eyirkccd|b{ gkemp kg|pid` na drhki| b{ `d{'‘



JIGGI@[ YG@IR\PNN@?–Kp -pmi ”hngnckpmkl dg` rypmci|| lng|vkrdl{‛+ k| d|{|pih umklm md| lng|lrkvpi` qd|p myhdg dg`hdpirkdc ri|nyrli| kgpn pmi bykc`kge na dpkempc{ jgkp# mkemc{ iaaklkigp hdlmkgi pmdplnhbkgi| hkckpdr{# kvcnhdpkl# kgpicckeigli#ilngnhkl# |lkigpkakl# dg` vnckpkldcnvirdpkng|' Kp| vrivdrdpkng| dri lnglidci` gnpvybck|mi`' Kp| hk|pdji| dri byrki`# gnpmid`ckgi`# kp| `k||igpir| dri |kcigli`# gnpvrdk|i`: gn i}vig`kpyri k| tyi|pkngi`# gn ryhnrk| vrkgpi`# gn |ilrip k| riqidci`' Kp lng`ylp| pmilnc` udr# kg |mnrp# ukpm d udrpkhi `k|lkvckgi gn`ihnlrdl{ unyc` iqir mnvi pn uk|m pn hdplm' '''"



@K@ [NY JGNU?Vri|kìgp Onmg A' Jiggi`{ |vnji pmi|i unr`| dp LncyhbkdYgkqir|kp{ dg` cdpir kìgpkaki` pmdp pmikr VRKHDR[ ENDC#dhnge npmir pmkge|# ud| pn –ìbd|i pmi lyrrigl{ na

Dhirkld‘> -Pmk| k| umdp Oiaair|ng ygìr|pnn` d| uicc'+\mnrpc{ dapir ekqkge pmk| |viilm# Jiggi`{ k||yi` I}ilypkqi

Nrìr 44446 “ umklm lcidrc{ dypmnrkzi` pmi Y'\' Prid|yr{pn vrkgp \NYG@ HNGI[ -lirpkakldpi| vieei` igpkric{ pn|kcqir+ kg `krilp lnhvipkpkng ukpm pmi adli na pmi –HngnckpmklLng|vkrdl{‘ ldcci` pmi Aiìrdc Ri|irqi'

D aiu uiij| cdpir# Jiggi`{ ud| jkcci`$$C{g`ng Onmg|ng‛| 4 |p NAAKLKDC DLP d| Vri|kìgp ud| pnriqnji I'N' 44446# dg` iqigpydcc{ |kegi` pmi lcidrc{

yglng|pkpypkngdc –Lnkgdei Dlp na 4;19‘ iaailpkqic{ dgànrhdcc{ ìbd|kge dg` ìqdcykge pmi Y'\' \kcqir @nccdr'K |ybhkp pmk| ud| dg dlp na mkem prid|ng vygk|mdbci b{@IDPM# dllnr`kge pn nyr Anyg`kge Adpmir|‛ Lnkgdei Dlpi|pdbck|mi` bdlj kg 45;2$$$$$



ONMG\NG PDJI\ NQIR# UKPM D UKGJ

DG@ D GN@ PN LNGERI\\HDG DCBIRPPMNHD\$$$$



@K@ [NY JGNU?Kg 45;2# pmi vrkli na |kcqir ud| 4'2; dg nygliKg 4;19# pmi vrkli na |kcqir ud| 4'2; dg nygliKg 2646# pmi vrkli na |kcqir k| 2='1; dg nygli “ rivri|igpkge dg kgacdpkng rdpi na 2966)>>\kcqir k| pmi –Ckphy| Pi|p‘ anr kgacdpkngunrcùkì “ kg iqir{ kg`y|prkdckzi` gdpkng>\kgli pmi `dug na pmi –Mnc{ Rnhdg Ihvkri‘ dg`ìlrii na Ldi|dr# |kcqir k| DCUD[\ pn bi qdcyi`dp 4.41 pmi vrkli na enc`> Mk|pnrkldcc{# pmdp md|dcud{| biig pmi gnrh anr nqir 2#666 {idr|' Pmk|ud| dc|n PMI CDU kg 45;2 “ -|ii Lnkgdei Dlp'+\kgli enc` k| gnu mnqirkge drnyg` 4066 dgnygli# pmi pryi qdcyi na |kcqir k| pmy| =5'96'



DRLMKPILP NA @ILIKP

MIGR[ M' ANUCIR D| dg ihvcn{ii na pmiGnpi Vd{dbci brnjirdeiJKGE\ na kgpirgdpkngdcakgdgli# Enc`hdg \dlm|#

Migr{ Anucir ud| pmiRnpm|lmkc`‛| hnci kg pmiJiggi`{ Ldbkgip# dg`ud| iciqdpi` pnPrid|yr{ \ilripdr{ dapirCBO‛| icilpkng kg 4;10'

Mk| VD[HIGP anr mk|prid|ng> D vn|kpkng d|VDRPGIR kg Enc`hdg\dlm|# Giu [nrj Lkp{'



C[G@NG ONMG\NG‛\ RIHDRJ\ DP PMI\KEGKGE NA PMI PRID\NGNY\ 4;19

LNKGDEI DLP @k|pkgeyk|mi` Hihbir| na Lngeri||# cd`ki| dg` eigpcihig?Ui dri edpmiri` miri pn`d{ anr d qir{ rdri dg` mk|pnrklnlld|kng kg nyr Gdpkng%| mk|pnr{'Bianri K hdji |nhi nb|irqdpkng| pmdp K mdqi hdì gnpi na miri# K udgp pn |d{ pn pmi Lngeri|| dedkg# d| K `n dchn|p`dkc{ pmi|i `d{|# kg pmi unr`| na pmi Gdq{(("Uicc `ngi'"Umig K mdqi |kegi` pmk| bkcc bianri hi# ui ukcc mdqi hdìpmi akr|p ayg`dhigpdc lmdgei kg nyr lnkgdei kg 45< {idr|'Pmi Lnkgdei Dlp na 4;19 |yvir|iì| pmi dlp na 45;2' Dg`pmdp dlp md` pmi pkpci? Dg Dlp I|pdbck|mkge d Hkgp dg`Rieycdpkge pmi Lnkgdei na pmi Ygkpi` \pdpi|'

\kgli pmdp pkhi nyr lnkgdei na `khi|# dg` tydrpir|# dg`mdca `nccdr|# dg` `nccdr| mdqi lngpdkgi` ;6 virligp |kcqir'Pn`d{# i}livp anr pmi |kcqir `nccdr# ui dri i|pdbck|mkge dgiu lnkgdei pn pdji kp| vcdli bi|kì pmi nc`'



CBO‛\ RIHDRJ\?H{ \ilripdr{ na pmi Prid|yr{# Oni Anucir# k| d ckppci |pkge{ dbnyphdjkge |dhvci|# byp K mdqi |nhi miri' Oni hdì |yri pmdp K unyc`g%pvyp pmih kg h{ vnljip b{ |ig`kge pmih nqir miri kg vcd|pkl'

Dlpydcc{# gn giu lnkg| ldg bi hkgpi` ygpkc pmk| bkcc k| |kegi`' \n pmi|i|prkji|# d| pmi{ dri ldcci`# dri lnkg| pmdp ui ukcc giqir y|i' Ng ngi|kì k| nyr akr|p Akr|p Cd`{# Hdrpmd Ud|mkgepng' Ng pmi npmir# d

rivckld na Hnygp Qirgng'Pmi giu `khi| dg` pmi giu tydrpir| ukcc lngpdkg gn |kcqir'Pmi{ ukcc bi lnhvn|kpi|# ukpm adli| na pmi |dhi dccn{ y|i` kg nyr 9(ligp vkili pmdp k| bngì` pn d lnri na vyri lnvvir' Pmi{ ukcc |mnu dlnvvir ièi'Nyr giu mdca `nccdr ukcc lngpkgyi nyr |kcqir prd`kpkng' Ikemp{ virligp|kcqir ng pmi nyp|kì dg` 4; virligp |kcqir kg|kì' Kp ukcc bi gidrc{kg`k|pkgeyk|mdbci kg dvvidrdgli arnh nyr vri|igp mdca `nccdr'

Dcc pmi|i giu lnkg| ukcc bi pmi |dhi |kzi dg` ukcc bidr pmi |dhiì|keg| d| `n pmikr vri|igp lnygpirvdrp|' Dg` pmi{ ukcc akp dcc pmivdrjkge hipir| dg` dcc pmi lnkg hdlmkgi| dg` ukcc mdqi pmi |dhihngipdr{ qdcyi d| pmi vri|igp ngi|'



CBO‛\ PRID\NGNY\ RIHDRJ\

LNGPKGYI?Gnu# dcc na {ny jgnu pmi|i lmdgei| dri gili||dr{ anrd qir{ |khvci rid|ng((|kcqir k| d |ldrli hdpirkdc' Nyry|i| na |kcqir dri ernukge d| nyr vnvycdpkng dg` nyrilngnh{ ernu|' Pmi mdr` adlp k| pmdp |kcqir

lng|yhvpkng k| gnu hnri pmdg `nybci giu |kcqirvrn`ylpkng idlm {idr' \n# kg pmi adli na pmk| unrcùkì|mnrpdei na |kcqir# dg` nyr rdvk`c{ ernukge gii` anrlnkg|# pmi ngc{ ridcc{ vryìgp lnyr|i ud| pn ri`ylinyr ìvigìgli yvng |kcqir anr hdjkge nyr lnkg|'Ka ui md` gnp `ngi |n# ui unyc` mdqi rk|ji` lmrngkl

lnkg |mnrpdei| kg pmi qir{ gidr aypyri'Pmiri k| gn lmdgei kg pmi vigg{ dg` pmi gkljic' Pmirik| gn lmdgei kg pmi |kcqir `nccdr# dcpmnyem ui mdqign vri|igp vcdg| anr |kcqir `nccdr vrn`ylpkng'



CBO?\nhi mdqi d|ji` umipmir nyr |kcqir lnkg| ukcc `k|dvvidr'Pmi dg|uir k| qir{ ìakgkpic{(gn'Nyr vri|igp |kcqir lnkg| ung%p `k|dvvidr dg` pmi{ ung%piqig bilnhi rdrkpki|' Ui i|pkhdpi pmdp pmiri dri gnu 42bkcckng((K rividp# hnri pmdg 42 bkcckng |kcqir `khi| dg`

tydrpir| dg` mdca `nccdr| pmdp dri gnu nyp|pdg`kge' Ui ukcchdji dgnpmir bkcckng bianri ui mdcp vrn`ylpkng' Dg` pmi{ukcc bi y|i` |kì(b{(|kì ukpm nyr giu lnkg|'\kgli pmi ckai na d |kcqir lnkg k| dbnyp 29 {idr|# ui i}vilpnyr prd`kpkngdc |kcqir lnkg| pn bi ukpm y| kg cdrei gyhbir|anr d cnge# cnge pkhi'Ka dg{bn`{ md| dg{ kìd na mndr`kge nyr |kcqir lnkg|# cip hi

|d{ pmk| ' Prid|yr{ md| d cnp na |kcqir ng mdg`# dg` kpldg bi# dg` kp ukcc bi y|i` pn jiiv pmi vrkli na |kcqirkg ckgi ukpm kp| qdcyi kg nyr vri|igp |kcqir lnkg' Pmiriukcc bi gn vrnakp kg mnc`kge pmih nyp na lkrlycdpkng anr pmiqdcyi na pmikr |kcqir lngpigp'



C[KGE BF, ) ONMG\NG? -CBO+Pmi giu lnkg| dri gnp enkge pn mdqi d |ldrlkp{ qdcyi ikpmir' Pmi hkgpk| eidri` pn eip kgpn vrn`ylpkng tykljc{ dg` pn `n kp ng d hd||kqi|ldci' Ui i}vilp pn vrn`yli gnp ci|| pmdg < 4.2 bkcckng| na pmi giulnkg| kg pmi gi}p {idr# dg`# ka gili||dr{# pukli pmdp dhnygp kg pmianccnukge 42 hngpm|'\n# ui mdqi lnhi miri pmk| hnrgkge pn pmk|# pmi akr|p mny|i na pmi cdg`

dg` pmk| bidypkayc Rn|i Edrìg# pn lngerdpycdpi dcc na pmn|i hig dgùnhig pmdp hdji yv nyr akgi Lngeri||# umn hdì pmk| ciek|cdpkngvn||kbci((pmi lnhhkppii| na bnpm Mny|i|# pmi cidìr|mkv kg bnpmMny|i|# bnpm vdrpki|# dg` \ilripdr{ Anucir dg` dcc na mk| d||nlkdpi| kgpmi Prid|yr{'K lnhhig` pmi giu lnkgdei pn pmi Gdpkng%| bdgj| dg` by|kgi||i| dg`pn pmi vybckl' K pmkgj kp ukcc |irqi y| uicc'Gnu# K ukcc |keg pmk| bkcc pn hdji pmi akr|p lmdgei kg nyr lnkgdei|{|pih |kgli pmi 4=pm ligpyr{' Dg` pn pmn|i Hihbir| na Lngeri||#umn dri miri ng pmk| qir{ mk|pnrkl nlld|kng# K udgp pn d||yri {ny pmdpkg hdjkge pmk| lmdgei arnh pmi 4=pm ligpyr{ ui mdqi gn kìd na ripyrgkge pn kp'Ui dri enkge pn jiiv nyr i{i| ng pmi |pdr| dg` nyr aiip ng pmi ernyg`'



ONMG\NG ANCCNUI@ NR@IR\

UMKCI JIGGI@[ RIAY\I@–Cip Hi K\\YI dg`LNGPRNC d gdpkng‛|HNGI[# dg` K LDRIGNP UMN URKPI\PMI CDU\$‘

((((Hd{ir Dh|lmicRnpm|lmkc` -Bdyir+455<(4=99 -Gnpkli pmiBcnn`(ri` –Krng Lrn||+



@K@ [NY JGNU?VYRI \kcqir dg` Enc` lnkg| dri 466) kgacdpkng(vrnna> Kp ukcc dcud{| jiiv kp| vyrlmd|kge vnuirkgpdlp# nr iqig kglrid|i dedkg|p DG[ vdvirlyrrigl{ ( unrcùkì$$ \LDRLKP[ K\ ENN@$$

I}dhvci? H{ adpmir pnnj mk| Y'\' Drh{–hy|pirkge nyp‘ vd{lmilj| dapir |irqkge kgJnrid# ld|mi` pmih# rilikqi` 4966 kg Hnredg|kcqir `nccdr| arnh pmi bdgj# dg` vyrlmd|i` dBRDG@ GIU \pyìbdjir |i`dg' Idlm Hnredg`nccdr ud| d vyri dg` mngi|p nygli na |kcqir pmdppn`d{ k| qdcyi` dp drnyg` 2=' Umdp jkg` na qimklci lnyc` [NY vyrlmd|i pn`d{ ka {ny md`4966 Hnredg \KCQIR `nccdr| kg [NYR vnljip>-4966 } 2= vir nz' 8 02#666 itykqdcigp'+



PMI MK@@IG \PNR[ BIMKG@ PMI

\PNR[ DG[ lnygpr{# d| pmi Anyg`kge Adpmir| jgiu |n qir{uicc# pmdp VRKGP\ AKDP HNGI[ UKPMNYP DG[ BD\K\# ìbd|i| pmi lnkgdei# dg` k||yi| ìbp gnpi|pmdp eridpc{ I]LII@\ ERN\\ GDPKNGDC

VRN@YLP IDLM [IDR# ukcc kgiqkpdbc{ i}virkigliHD\\KQI M[VIR(KGACDPKNG# dg` ukcc @KI d| dgdpkngdc igpkp{ ((( YGCI\\ dg` NGC[ KA Npmir unrc` gdpkng| dg` vnuir| vyrlmd|i qd|pdhnygp| na pmi AKDP lyrrigl{ d| |prdpiekl ri|irqi| pnlnqir PMIKR gdpkngdc ìbp l{lci' -Pmk| jiiv| pmi

bybbci dacndp pihvnrdrkc{ “ giqir virhdgigpc{'+Umig pmk| hd||kqic{ ìbd|i` lyrrigl{ k| dbdg`ngi`#unrcùkì d| pmi |pdg`dr` ri|irqi lyrrigl{# mnuiqir#pmi kgiqkpdbci ILNGNHKL LRD\M k| lnhvnygì`dg` rdvk` kg pmi i}prihi'



LNG\YHIR @IBP I]VIG@KPYRI D\VIRLIGPDEI NA ERN\\ @NHI\PKL

VRN@YLP D`` ENQIRGHIGP@IBP DG@NBCKEDPKNG\ pnpmk| vklpyri# dg` kpRIDCC[ EIP\ARKEMPIGKGE'-Pnpdc Y'\' Ai`irdc@ibp k| uicc nqir 426prkcckng dg` pmdp k|bianri NbdhdLdripdji| iaailp kg 2644'+



PMI VRKLI NA ENC@ K\ BD\I@ KG

Y'\' @NCCDR\ “ D\ K\ LRY@I NKCIdlm dg` iqir{ `d{# Hng`d{ pmrnyem Ark`d{#vrilk|ic{ dp <?66 v'h' -EHP+ kg d bndr` rnnh kg pmimidrp na pmi Lkp{ na Cng`ng akgdglkdc `k|prklp# pmiunrc`‛| hn|p vnuirayc hig hiip dg` vrn`yli|nhipmkge ldcci` –Pmi Cng`ng Ak}‘ “ PMI[ DCNGIìpirhkgi pmi –|vnp vrkli‘ na enc` dg` na lnyr|i pmk| k|bd|i` kg Y\@ “ Ygkpi` \pdpi| @nccdr| “ dedkgbildy|i pmi @nccdr k| pmi –Unrc`‛| Ri|irqi Lyrrigl{‘'Pmk| k| d qir{ ridc ckphy| pi|p pn jgnu mnu pmi Y\@ k|qdcyi` unrcùkì' Dedkg# d| pmi unrc`‛| ri|irqilyrrigl{# pmi Y\@ gip qdcyi k| vieei` pn pmi qdcyi na enc`' Umig enc`‛| –|vnp vrkli‘ |yrei| dbnqi 566Y\@ vir nygli “ pmk| k| d |prnge udrgkge pn pmi unrc`pmdp |nhipmkge k| pirrkbc{ urnge ukpm Y\ @nccdr “-kgpmk| ld|i# pmi Aiìrdc Ri|irqi Gnpi Vd{dbci+ “ umklmk| ridcc{ GNP d pryi Y\ \KCQIR @nccdr “ byp d ìbpkg|pryhigp igpkric{'



\KGLI PMI –CNG@NG AK]‘ K\ EIGIRDPI@ B[ PMI MID@\ NA AI@IRDC RI\IRQI BDGJ\# K\

PMI QDCYDPKNG PRYC[ NBOILPKQI>Mk|pnrkldcc{# pmi –Cng`ng Ak}‘ ldclycdpi| pmi qdcyi na pmi Y\@ -Aiìrdc Ri|irqi Gnpi+ dedkg|p pmi `nccdr#dapir ldclycdpkge Y'\' Ern|| @nhi|pkl Vrn`ylp rdpkn|dedkg|p nyp|pdg`kge ìbp nbckedpkng|' Kp dc|n pdji|

kgpn dllnygp pmi vyrlmd|kge dlpkqkp{ na enc` unrcùkìd| nvvn|i` pn vyrlmd|i| na Y\@'Pmi hnri dllyrdpi dg` mngi|p qdcydpkng unyc` bi pnldclycdpi pmi pryi vrkli na enc` kg Y\@ b{ pdjkge pmipnpdc dhnygp na Y\@ -Ai` ìbp gnpi|+ mic` kg ri|irqi

unrcùkì -dvvrn}khdpic{ 466 Prkcckng+ dg` `kqk`kgekp b{ pmi pnpdc dhnygp na enc` kg pmi unrc` -9 bkcckngnygli|'+ Bd|i` ng pmk| qdcydpkng# enc` k| lcn|ir pn

26#666 Y\@ vir nygli' Dapir dcc# npmir gdpkng| mdqibiig pnc` pmdp Y\@ dri itydc pn enc` d| d –ri|irqi‘'



@K@ [NY JGNU?Pmi Ygkpi` \pdpi| k| pmi NGC[ lnygpr{ kg pmiunrc` pmdp `ni| gnp mdqi pn i}irlk|i \PRKLPpdrkaa| dg` vrkli lngprnc| kg nrìr pn jiivkgacdpkng lngprncci`>

Pmk| k| bildy|i Aiìrdc Ri|irqi Gnpi| ldg bivrkgpi` d| giiì` pn lnqir dg{ dg` dcc |mnrpadcc|dg` prdì khbdcdgli| “ dg` pmk| k| NGC[ bildy|i Y\@ k| rilnegkzi` d| –Ri|irqi Lyrrigl{‘unrcùkì'

\yvvn|i Eirhdg{ udgp| pn by{ nkc arnh NVIL'Pmi{ ldg‛p |ig` NVIL Hdrj| nr Iyrn| anr pmikrnkc' Pmi{ akr|p mdqi pn by{ Ai` Ri|irqi Gnpi|-Y\@+ dg` pmig by{ pmi nkc'



PMI MDR\M RIDCKP[ Lmkgd# Ry||kd# Ardgli# Krdg# dg` Odvdg mdqi dccderii` pn biekg `kqi|pkge pmih|icqi| na Y\`nccdr| “ dg` pn iqigpydcc{ dggnygli pmdp pmiLmkgi|i [ydg ukcc bi pmikr –ri|irqi lyrrigl{'‘NVIL gdpkng| ukcc `n pmi |dhi# pmdgj| pn pmihd||kqi dhnygp na –GIU @IBP‘ k||yi` b{ pmiNbdhd D`hkgk|prdpkng `yrkge pmi cd|p pun {idr|'Pmk| k| pmi bkeei|p vrnbcih ukpm pmi PDRVbdkcnyp|'Pmiri k| |khvc{ gn |ylm pmkge d| –Arii Cyglm‘ “ `ibp| dcud{| lnhi `yi# |nngir nr cdpir'



UMDP @NI\ PMK\ HIDG>>\khvc{ |pdpi`# umig pmi bycj na pmi kg`y|prkdc gdpkng|ìlcdri d `kaairigp –ri|irqi lyrrigl{‘ “ pmi qdcyi na pmi Y' \' @nccdr ukcc vcyhhip “ dg` M[VIR(KGACDPKNG kg Dhirkld ukcc biekg KHHI@KDPIC['

Rihihbir mnu qncdpkci Lryì Nkc ud| `yrkge pmiKrdt Udr dg` `yrkge Myrrkldgi Jdprkgd> Giu| na NVIL `yhvkge pmi `nccdr d| kp| ri|irqi lyrrigl{ ukccbi hylm# hylm unr|i “ dg` ukcc hidg dp cid|p dPRKVCKGE na ed| vrkli| dp pmi vyhv khhi`kdpic{'Pmi rkvvci iaailp na pmk| ukcc pmig pdji iaailp' Ernlir{

|pnri |micqi| ukcc ihvp{ d| pryljkge lnhvdgki|ridckzi pmi{ ldg gn cngeir daanr` pn |mkv'Bdgj| ukcc lcn|i# vinvci ukcc rknp# dg` hdrpkdc cdu ukccbi ìlcdri`' Dcc na pmk| ldg id|kc{ nllyr kg Dhirkldckpirdcc{ nqirgkemp'



RIHIHBIR# RIHIHBIR?Hdrlm 4<# 266= “ d \ILRIP HIIPKGE ud| mic`ukpm Y'\' Lngeri|| hihbir| “ dg` DCC HI@KD uirii}lcy`i`'Kp ud| cidji` pmdp pmk| ud| dcc dbnyp i}ilypkgei}prihi LNGPKGEIGL[ VCDG\ lnglirgkge d pnpdcilngnhkl lnccdv|i kg Dhirkld'Hdg{ bickiqi` pmdp pmi iqigp| na Nlpnbir# 266= “ pmilnccdv|i na pmi mny|kge hdrjip dg` pmi hnrpedeilrk|k| ud| pmi lychkgdpkng na pmi bd` giu| dg` pmi

rid|ng anr pmi \ILRIP HIIPKGE'K |ybhkp pmdp umig kp k| DGGNYGLI@ pmdp pmi`nccdr k| `yhvi` d| pmi unrc`‛| ri|irqi lyrrigl{ “ pmiiqigp| na Nlpnbir 266= ukcc vdci kg lnhvdrk|ng'



UMIG UKCC PMK\ MDVVIG>GNU ((( kp k| dcrid`{ mdvvigkge “ pmi unrc` k|dcrid`{ `yhvkge pmi `nccdr' Kp k| d lnhvci} dg`cigepm{ vrnli||# mnuiqir# dg` pmi akgdc iqigpung‛p bi dggnygli` ng pmi gkempc{ giu| ygpkc pmivrnli|| k| lnhvcipi`' Cnnj anr pmi naaklkdc–dggnyglihigp‘ kg pmi |yhhir na 2644 “ nrNlpnbir dp pmi cdpi|p'

Dhirkld k| |vnkci` dg` pmi qd|p hdonrkp{ na lkpkzig| |yaair ukpm |nhipmkge ldcci` –Gnrhdcl{Bkd|‘' Pmi qd|p hdonrkp{ ukcc GNP bickiqi pmk|gkemphdri k| d ridckp{# ygpkc kp k| hylm pnn cdpi'Pmig udplm pmi rknpkge biekg kg idrgi|p'



\NCYPKNG\Ridckzi pmdp pmk| k| 466) ridc# dg` k| ENKGE pnmdvvig' Pmdp k| pmi akr|p |piv ( I@YLDPKNG'Vrivdri anr pmi unr|p# dg` mnvi dg` vrd{ anr pmi bi|p'KHHI@KDPIC[ pdji dp cid|p 96) na {nyr vig|kng nr

bdgjkge dllnygp|# dg` by{ \KCQIR' Pmk| k| pmi bi|p|dai mdqig na dcc pkhi' Pmi Anyg`kge Adpmir| jgiupmk| kg 45;2 “ dg` kp |pkcc rihdkg| pryi pn`d{'Vrivdri PN@D[ pn cidqi pmi lkpki| dg` akg` d vcdli kgpmi lnygpr{ umiri {ny ldg vcdgp d edr`ig pmk||yhhir' Cidrg pn ldg dg` bnppci dcc i}li|| qieeki|'

[ny ukcc gii` pmih$$Rihihbir pmdp pmkge| ukcc bi QIR[ BD@ anr dp cid|p4= hngpm|' [ny ukcc gii` pn idp# mdqi |micpir# dg`|pd{ udrh' Vcdg dllnr`kgec{'



JIGGI@[ UD\ KG @DCCD\ PN EKQI D \VIILM “ CK\PIG PN PMI UNR@\ MI

GIQIR \VNJI?–Kp |mnyc` bi lcidr b{ gnu pmdp d gdpkng ldg bign |prngeir dbrnd` pmdg |mi k| dp mnhi' Ngc{ dg

Dhirkld umklm vrdlpkli| umdp kp vridlmi|dbnyp itydc rkemp| dg` |nlkdc oy|pkli ukcc bi

ri|vilpi` b{ pmn|i umn|i lmnkli daailp| nyraypyri' Ngc{ dg Dhirkld umklm md| aycc{i`yldpi` kp| lkpkzig| k| aycc{ ldvdbci na pdljckgepmi lnhvci} vrnbcih| dg` virlikqkge pmimk`ìg dgeir| na pmi unrc` kg umklm ui ckqi'

Dg` ngc{ dg Dhirkld umklm k| ernukge dg`vrn|virkge ilngnhkldcc{ ldg |y|pdkg pmiunrcùkì ìaig|i| na arii`nh# umkciìhng|prdpkge pn dcc lnglirgi` pminvvnrpygkpki| na nyr |{|pih dg` |nlkip{'‘



JIGGI@[‛\ YG\VNJIG UNR@\?–Kp k| lcidr# pmirianri# pmdp ui dri |prigepmigkgenyr |ilyrkp{ d| uicc d| nyr ilngnh{ b{ nyr riligprilnr` kglrid|i| kg gdpkngdc kglnhi dg` nypvyp((b{ |yrekge dmid` na hn|p na Ui|pirg Iyrnvi kgpmi rdpi na by|kgi|| i}vdg|kng dg` pmi hdrekg na lnrvnrdpi vrnakp|# b{ hdkgpdkgkge d hnri |pdbciciqic na vrkli| pmdg dchn|p dg{ na nyr nqir|id|lnhvipkpnr|# dg` b{ lyppkge vir|ngdc dg`lnrvnrdpi kglnhi pd}i| b{ |nhi 44 bkcckng# d| Kmdqi vrnvn|i`# pn d||yri pmk| Gdpkng na pmicngei|p dg` |prngei|p i}vdg|kng kg nyr

vidlipkhi ilngnhkl mk|pnr{'‘



JIGGI@[ LNGPKGYI\?–Pmk| Gdpkng%| pnpdc nypvyp((umklm < {idr| den ud| dppmi 966 bkcckng hdrj((ukcc |nng vd|| 166 bkcckng# anrd rilnr` rk|i na nqir pnn bkcckng kg < {idr|' Anr pmiakr|p pkhi kg mk|pnr{ ui mdqi 56 hkcckng hig dgùnhig dp unrj' Anr pmi akr|p pkhi kg mk|pnr{ dqirdei

adlpnr{ idrgkge| mdqi i}liiì` 466 d uiij' Anr pmiakr|p pkhi kg mk|pnr{ lnrvnrdpkng vrnakp| dapir pd}i|((umklm mdqi rk|ig 0< virligp kg ci|| pmdg < {idr|((mdqi dg dggydc ciqic na 25'0 bkcckng'H{ arkig`| dg` aiccnu lkpkzig|? K lkpi pmi|i adlp| dgàkeyri| pn hdji kp lcidr pmdp Dhirkld pn`d{ k||prngeir pmdg iqir bianri' Nyr d`qir|drki| mdqi gnpdbdg`ngi` pmikr dhbkpkng|# nyr `dgeir| mdqi gnp`khkgk|mi`# nyr qkekcdgli ldggnp bi ricd}i`' Byp gnuui mdqi pmi hkckpdr{# pmi |lkigpkakl# dg` pmi ilngnhkl|prigepm pn `n umdpiqir hy|p bi `ngi anr pmivri|irqdpkng dg` vrnhnpkng na arii`nh'‘



JIGGI@[?–Pmdp |prigepm ukcc giqir bi y|i` kg vyr|ykp na deeri||kqi dhbkpkng|((kp ukcc dcud{| bi y|i` kgvyr|ykp na vidli' Kp ukcc giqir bi y|i` pnvrnhnpi vrnqnldpkng|((kp ukcc dcud{| bi y|i` pnvrnhnpi pmi vidliayc |ippcihigp na `k|vypi|'‘

–Ui kg pmk| lnygpr{# kg pmk| eigirdpkng# dri((b{ì|pkg{ rdpmir pmdg lmnkli((pmi udplmhig ng pmiudcc| na unrc` arii`nh' Ui d|j# pmirianri# pmdp uihd{ bi unrpm{ na nyr vnuir dg` ri|vng|kbkckp{# pmdpui hd{ i}irlk|i nyr |prigepm ukpm uk|`nh dg`ri|prdkgp# dg` pmdp ui hd{ dlmkiqi kg nyr pkhi dgànr dcc pkhi pmi dglkigp qk|kng na "vidli ng idrpm# ennùkcc pnudr` hig'" Pmdp hy|p dcud{| bi nyr endc# dg`pmi rkempiny|gi|| na nyr ldy|i hy|p dcud{| ygìrckinyr |prigepm' Anr d| ud| urkppig cnge den? "i}livp pmiCnr` jiiv pmi lkp{# pmi udplmhdg udjipm byp kgqdkg'"



LNGLCY\KNG>> D GIU

BIEKGGKGE$$Jiggi`{ |dk` dp mk| kgdyeyrdpkng ? "Dcc pmk|ukcc gnp bi akgk|mi` kg pmi akr|p

ngi myg`ri` `d{|# gnr kg pmiakr|p ngi pmny|dg` `d{|# gnr kgpmi ckai na pmk| d`hkgk|prdpkng'Gnr iqig virmdv| kg nyr ckaipkhing pmk| vcdgip' Byp cip y| biekg'"

the bursting debt bubble by a true ott phd

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