the bullwhip effect - anylogic · the bullwhip effect is a well known and studied phenomena of...
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The Bullwhip Effect
Anylogic Conference Dec 13 2012 Hans Ehm Supply Chain Innovation
09.08.2012 Page 2 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2011. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
The Challenge, The Goal, The Idea
Model Description
Results
Impressions & Lessons Learned
09.08.2012 Page 3 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2011. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
The Challenge, The Goal, The Idea
Model Description
Results
Impressions & Lessons Learned
Page 4 26.10.2010 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved.
Risk comes from the nonaligned supply chains - the bullwhip effect
Bullwhip Effect
Overshooting in
the value chain
Customer OEM Tier 1 Tier 2 Semicon-
ductor Equipment supplier
Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. 06.12.2012
Page 5 26.10.2010 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved.
Infineon Supplier
SIFO SUBCON
SORT DIE BANK ASSEMBLY FAB TEST Wafer stock DC Consi
Customers
SORT DIE BANK ASSEMBLY FAB TEST Wafer stock DC Consi
Semiconductor Supply Chain - Model Hierarchy; Level 4 Challenge: Bullwhip
06.12.2012
Level 3:
Company SC
Level 2:
Production Site
Level 1: Cluster/Equipment
Level 4:
End-To-End SC
12/18/2012 Page 6 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2011. All rights reserved.
The Challenge - (Why?)
The bullwhip effect is a well known and studied phenomena of human behavior that effects supply chains in all industries.
It posits that there are larger and larger fluctuations in demand the further back you look in a forecast-driven supply chain.
It is, however, even more important to understand its drivers and impacts in the semiconductor industry, as the long cycle times, high capital costs, and rapid price decline (Moore’s Law) put extreme pressure on supply chains to be as lean and efficient as possible.
12/18/2012 Page 7 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2011. All rights reserved.
The Goal - (What?)
In order to test the AnyLogic® modeling software package, we wanted to model a well-known and researched, yet ever important topic within the field of semiconductor manufacturing.
We wanted to show what the bullwhip effect looks like in our supply chain and to what extremes it exists.
We also wanted to examine the connection between market demand fluctuation and the fluctuation in demand we receive from our direct customers.
12/18/2012 Page 8 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2011. All rights reserved.
The Idea – (How?)
We created agents for each of the major players in the supply chain and gave them behavior based on the well known “Beer Game”.
We then retrieved real GDP and Semiconductor market data to use as our input signal.
Finally, we re-created a simplified internal structure for Infineon. The agents, Infineon, and the market were then all linked together using discrete event process simulation methods to combine a hybrid model with a highly realistic structure
For internal use only 27.06.2012 9 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved.
Lean Modeling Approach Start
Which question shall be answered with the project?
What does the Bullwhip Effect look like for semiconductor manufactures?
Which output / answer shall be given? Structure of output?
Graph of demand per “agent” (absolute), Graph of variation per agent (Percent)
What data is needed?
Demand data, Time data (CT, delays, etc.)
Where? Right quality?
Needed data completely on
hand?
Simulation necessary? (Other (faster,
simpler) solutions? Analytic solution?)
Can assumptions be
made? e.g. stochastic distibution, deterministic
values?
yes
no
yes
End
End
What level of detail is needed?
Highly aggregated, non-product specific
The less the better!
The lower the better!
no
Simulation
no
yes
12/18/2012 Page 10 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2011. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
The Challenge, The Goal, The Idea
Model Description
Results
Impressions & Lessons Learned
Model description (General)
The supply chain model consists of 5 main agents:
Raw Material Supplier
Infineon Tier One Supplier
Market OEM
Delivers to
Orders from
Delivers to Delivers to Delivers to
Orders from Orders from Orders from
Produces Demands
INFORMATION FLOW
MATERIAL FLOW
Model description (General)
Main view in Anylogic®:
Model description
The Semiconductor Agent consists of
Planning & control – where capacity decisions are taken and where forecasts & orders are made
Base system – where material is flowing and orders are executed
Model description (Planning & Control)
Screenshot from Planning and Control:
Model description (Base System)
Screenshot from Base System:
Model description (General)
The Decoupling point is at the Infineon Die Bank:
Raw Material Supplier
Infineon Tier One Supplier
Market OEM
Delivers to
Orders from
Delivers to Delivers to Delivers to
Orders from Orders from Orders from
Front End
Back End &
DC
Die Bank
Note: Make to stock process based on an average demand forecast by Semiconductor Planning and control agent and a target stock at semiconductor DC agent.
Model description (Agents 1)
Agents outside the Semiconductor manufacturer are modeled identically:
¬ Agents produce generic output (information flow is delayed in the supply chain)
¬ Agents have two states: “Careless” and “Anxious” determined by inventory reach
Agent over-orders when anxious (+ 20 % of demand)
Agent under-orders when Careless (- 50 % of demand)
Model description (Agents 2)
Screenshot from Agent outside Infineon:
12/18/2012 Page 19 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2011. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
The Challenge, The Goal, The Idea
Model Description
Results
Impressions & Lessons Learned
Page 20 26.10.2010 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved.
We wanted to show the Bullwhip = Amplification of demand along the supply chain
Bullwhip Effect
Overshooting in
the value chain
Customer OEM Tier 1 Tier 2 Semicon-
ductor Equipment supplier
Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. 06.12.2012
Results show that the bullwhip effect can be seen (1)
Resulting demand fluctuations by SC level:
Set date Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2011. All rights reserved. Page 21
Resulting demand fluctuations:
Set date Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2011. All rights reserved. Page 22
Results show that the bullwhip effect can be seen (2)
12/18/2012 Page 23 Copyright © Infineon Technologies 2011. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
The Challenge, The Goal, The Idea
Model Description
Results
Impressions & Lessons Learned
Impressions & lessons learned
Easy to use functionality
¬ UI very user-friendly
¬ This applied also without extensive previous knowledge of programming or simulation
Satisfying set of functionalities
¬ Particularly the option to combine discrete & agent-based modeling techniques (as in this model)
¬ Systems dynamics functionality not used although it exists in AnyLogic
Provides visually attractive results
¬ 2D and 3D representation options
© XJ Technolgies
Summary
This model combines discrete event-based simulation with agent-based simulation to represent the bullwhip effect in the supply chain.
Main conclusion is that AnyLogic is easy to use and has good functionality for SC discrete and behavioral simulation.
Especially unique attribute of AnyLogic:
¬ Ability to combine agent-based and discrete modeling techniques (and system dynamics techniques) in one model.
© XJ Technolgies