the big picture: an overview of energy use and supply · 2019. 12. 19. · u.s. energy information...

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

The Big Picture: An Overview of Energy Use and Supply

Health Effects Institute 2015 Annual Conference May 3, 2015 | Philadelphia, PA by Sam Napolitano Director, Office of Integrated and International Energy Analysis

Major takeaways

2

Based on EIA’s Reference case projections to 2040 in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and International Energy Outlook 2013 that generally reflect current policies, including final regulations and the sunset of tax credits under current law:

United States

• With reliance on fossil fuels, U.S. energy consumption grows modestly with reductions in energy intensity resulting from improved technologies and trends driven by existing laws and regulations – notably in transportation

• U.S. energy production grows substantially – led by increasing shale gas and tight oil production – that contributes to lower reliance on energy imports

• Renewables provide an increased share of electricity generation, reflecting rising long-term natural gas prices and the high capital costs of new coal and nuclear generation capacity

• Improved efficiency of energy consumption in end-use sectors and a shift away from more carbon-intensive fuels help to stabilize U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which remain below the 2005 level through 2040

Health Effects Institute, May 3, 2015

Major takeaways (continued)

3

World View • World energy consumption increases well over 50 percent. Half of the

increase is attributed to China and India • Electric power generation nearly doubles • Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing energy

sources; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040

• Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook. Coal grows faster than liquid fuel consumption until after 2030, mostly due to increases in China’s consumption of coal and tepid growth in liquids demand attributed to slow growth in the OECD and high sustained oil prices

• The industrial sector accounts for the largest share of delivered energy consumption, consuming over half of global delivered energy in 2040

• Worldwide energy-related CO2 emissions increase around 15 percent by 2020 and 45 percent by 2040 from about 31 billion metric tons in 2010


Comparative metrics for energy

4

• One Btu is approximately equal to the energy released in the burning of a wood match

• A quadrillion Btu is 10^15 Btu

• One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil

• One quadrillion Btu is equal to 500,000 100-ton railroad cars of coal

• A trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas equals 1.03 quadrillion Btu

• A trillion kilowatthours of electricity equal 3.1 quadrillion Btu

• A million barrels of oil per day over a year is equal to 2.1 quadrillion Btu


United States

5 Health Effects Institute, May 3, 2015

Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case

History Projections 2013

36%

18%

27%

8%

8%

1%

33%

10%

18%

29%

8%

1% Nuclear

Petroleum and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels)

2025

35%

19%

27%

8%

9%

1% Liquid biofuels

2040


Most of U.S. energy use occurs in industry and transportation with major demands for electricity in the buildings and industrial sectors

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040




28%

22%

32%

18%

25%

20%

20%

36%

Residential

Transportation

Industrial

Commercial


25%

20%

41%

14%

Electricity and electricity related losses

All other fuels

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

In the transportation sector, motor gasoline use declines; diesel fuel, jet fuel, and natural gas use grow

8

transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu


Projections History 2013

58% Motor gasoline

Jet fuel CNG/LNG

10%

14% 3%

44%

31%

3%

3%

Other*

Diesel 24%

2030

48%

13%

2%

31%

1%

2040

Ethanol

4%

4% 5%

*Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen


Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth

9

U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Tight gas

Coalbed methane

Other lower 48 onshore

Shale gas and tight oil plays

Alaska Lower 48 offshore

Projections History 2013

billion cubic feet per day


Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuel efficiency drive projected decline in oil imports

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Note: “Other” includes refinery gain, biofuels production, all stock withdrawals, and other domestic sources of liquid fuels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case

Projections History

Natural gas plant liquids

Other crude oil production (excluding tight)

Net petroleum and other liquids imports

17%

22%

12%

27%

17%

14%

33%

2013

Other

23%

Tight oil production

21%

14%

U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day

21%

14%

2020

25%

12%

29%

2040


Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation

11

electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

13%

27%

19%

39%

13%

1% Nuclear Petroleum and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

2013 Projections History

16%

18%

34%

31%

1%

1993

11% 13%

19%

53%

4%

27%

18%

38%

16%

1%

2025 2040


Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower generation by 2040

12

renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours


0

150

300

450

600

750

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Solar

Geothermal

Biomass Municipal waste/Landfill gas

Wind

2013 Projections History

Conventional Hydroelectric

Power


5,000

5,250

5,500

5,750

6,000

6,250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to the influence of future economic growth and energy price trends on energy consumption

13

energy-related carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015

High Economic Growth

High Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

Low Economic Growth



World View


World energy consumption increases by well over 50 percent

15

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

energy consumption quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013


History Projections

Emerging Economies -- Non-OECD

More Developed Economies -- OECD

Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption

16

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu




34%

28%

22%

11%

5%

28% 27%

23%

7%

15%

Share of world total

Petroleum and other liquids (including biofuels)

Renewables (excluding biofuels)

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear

World petroleum and other liquid fuels are primarily from crude oil and lease condensate with notable amount of natural gas plant liquids

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world liquids supply million barrels per day




Crude oil and lease condensate

Refinery processing gain

Natural gas plant liquids* Biofuels

Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids

*Ethane, liquefied petroleum gases (propane, normal butane, and isobutane), and natural gasoline separated from natural gas at natural gas processing, fractionating, and cycling plants.

17

Transportation uses most of the world’s petroleum and other liquid fuels

18

0

50

100

150

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

petroleum and other liquids consumption quadrillion Btu



Other Transportation

The industrial sector uses most of the world’s delivered energy from a variety of energy sources

19

0 100 200 300 400

Total

Liquids

Coal

Natural gas

Electricity

Renewables

industrial sector delivered energy consumption quadrillion Btu



2010 2040

Three countries account for the bulk of world coal consumption that continues to grow

20

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

coal consumption quadrillion Btu



Rest of world

United States

India

China

Natural gas grows largely to serve growing electric and industrial demands

21

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet



Electric power

Industrial

Buildings

Transportation

World electricity generation nearly doubles

22

0

10

20

30

40

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

net electricity generation trillion kilowatthours



Coal

Natural gas

Hydropower

Nuclear

Non-hydropower renewables

Liquids

40%

22%

World energy-related CO2 emissions increase around 45 percent

23

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons



Coal

Natural gas

Liquid fuels

2010 History Projections

China and India


By 2040, China’s energy use will be double the U.S. level; India’s a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth

25

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu




107

55

220

China

United States

India

Transportation energy use per person projected to remain much less in China and India relative to United States and Europe

26

0 25 50 75 100

India

China

OECD Europe

United States

transportation primary energy consumption million Btu per person



2040

2010

China’s industrial sector delivered energy consumption is driven by coal and electricity use

27

0 20 40 60 80 100

Total

Coal

Electricity

Liquids

Natural gas

Renewables

industrial delivered energy consumption quadrillion Btu



2010 2040

China’s coal consumption mainly serves both the electric power and industrial sectors

28

0

25

50

75

100

125

China, electric power China, industrial China, total United States, total

coal consumption quadrillion Btu



2010 2020

2040

There are many issues that increase uncertainty…

29

• Slower economic growth in China and other key economies (Brazil, Russia, among others)

• Unforeseen technological changes

• U.S. tight oil production in low world oil price environment

• Continued unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential for unrest elsewhere

• Mexican energy reform

• Sanctions and Russia

• OPEC production profile decisions

• Timing and extent of Iran’s return to oil export market in light of negotiations

• Climate and other policies


Major takeaways

30

Based on EIA’s Reference case projections to 2040 in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and International Energy Outlook 2013 that generally reflect current policies, including final regulations and the sunset of tax credits under current law:

United States

• With reliance on fossil fuels, U.S. energy consumption grows modestly with reductions in energy intensity resulting from improved technologies and trends driven by existing laws and regulations – notably in transportation

• U.S. energy production grows substantially – led by increasing shale gas and tight oil production – that contributes to lower reliance on energy imports

• Renewables provide an increased share of electricity generation, reflecting rising long-term natural gas prices and the high capital costs of new coal and nuclear generation capacity

• Improved efficiency of energy consumption in end-use sectors and a shift away from more carbon-intensive fuels help to stabilize U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which remain below the 2005 level through 2040


Major takeaways (continued)

31

World View • World energy consumption increases well over 50 percent. Half of the

increase is attributed to China and India • Electric power generation nearly doubles • Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing energy

sources; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040

• Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook. Coal grows faster than liquid fuel consumption until after 2030, mostly due to increases in China’s consumption of coal and tepid growth in liquids demand attributed to slow growth in the OECD and high sustained oil prices

• The industrial sector accounts for the largest share of delivered energy consumption, consuming over half of global delivered energy in 2040

• Worldwide energy-related CO2 emissions increase around 15 percent by 2020 and 45 percent by 2040 from about 31 billion metric tons in 2010


For more information

32

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo

Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly

State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state

Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling


http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly

http://www.eia.gov/state

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling

Main sources

33

• United States: EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2015

• World and other countries: EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2013 and International Energy Outlook 2014 (focusing on petroleum and other liquids)


Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use

34

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040




Nuclear

Petroleum and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables (excluding hydropower)

Conventional hydroelectric power


35

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

2013 Reference High OilPrice

Low OilPrice

High Oiland GasResource

LowEconomic

Growth

HighEconomic

Growth

U.S. renewable generation in all sectors by fuel billion kilowatthours

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Growth in wind and solar generation meets a significant portion of projected total electric load growth in all AEO2015 cases

Wind

Solar

Conventional

Geothermal

Biomass and waste

2040

hydroelectric power


World residential sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040

36

0

25

50

75

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

residential sector delivered energy consumption quadrillion Btu



Natural gas

Electricity

Coal Liquids

40%

22%

India industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040

37

0 5 10 15 20

Total

Coal

Liquids

Electricity

Natural gas

Renewables

industrial sector delivered energy consumption quadrillion Btu



2010 2040

Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources

38

Shale gas Rank Country Trillion cubic feet

1 China 1,115

2 Argentina 802

3 Algeria 707

4 United States 665

5 Canada 573

6 Mexico 545

7 Australia 437

8 South Africa 390

9 Russia 285

10 Brazil 245

World total 7,299

Shale oil Rank Country Billion barrels

1 Russia 75

2 United States 58

3 China 32

4 Argentina 27

5 Libya 26

6 Venezuela 13

7 Mexico 13

8 Pakistan 9

9 Canada 9

10 Indonesia 8

World total 345


Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI. Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet.

World net electricity generation from nuclear power by region, 2010-2040

39

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

net electricity generation trillion kilowatthours



India Other Non-OECD Russia

OECD Europe

Middle East

40%

22%

South Korea

United States

Japan

China

Coal share of world energy consumption by sector, 2010, 2020, and 2040

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

Electric power Industrial Other sectors All sectors

2010 2020

2040

share of world energy consumption percent



Natural gas plant liquids and biofuels account for most of the other liquid fuels

0

3

6

9

12

15

Gas-to-liquids Coal-to-liquids Biofuels Natural gas plant liquids

2010 2025 2040

world production of selected other liquid fuels, Reference case million barrels per day


Health Effects Institute, May 3, 2015 41

the big picture: an overview of energy use and supply · 2019. 12. 19. · u.s. energy information...

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