The Benefit of Improved GOES Products in the NWS

Forecast Offices

Greg Mandt

National Weather Service

Director of the Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

May 23, 2001

GOES…the Evolution Continues

GOES Assessment

1st Tornado 5:55 pm

2 Tornadoes 6:34-6:55 pm

3 Tornadoes 9:02-10:01 pm

9 Tornadoes 7:08-8:47 pm

GOES Sounder Assessment MN/IA Tornadoes

WFOs credit the GOES Sounder data with helping them focus in on this tornado outbreak. The verification statistics (below) for the event, compared to the national averages and the NWS long-range goals bear this out:

TornadoesTornadoes

MSX/DMX National 2005 MSX/DMX National 2005 Ave (200) Goal** Ave (200) Goal**

Number Number 15 -- 15 -- -- --

PODPOD 0.73 0.63 0.80 0.73 0.63 0.80

FARFAR 0.31 0.31 0.75 0.40 0.75 0.40

LT (min)LT (min) 13.8 13.8 9.0 15.0 9.0 15.0

** all tornadoes** all tornadoes

NoteNote: The False Alarm Rate : The False Alarm Rate

exceeds the 2005 goal while exceeds the 2005 goal while

the Probability Of Detection the Probability Of Detection

and Lead-Time nearly hit the and Lead-Time nearly hit the

long-range goal. long-range goal.

Where we are headed in the future

AWIPS

Thunderstorm Auto-Nowcast System

• Produces 0-2 hr time and place specific forecast

• Expert system utilizes fuzzy logic

• Ingest multiple data sets

• Extrapolates radar echos• Forecast storm initiation,

growth and dissipation• Algorithms derive forecast

parameters based on the characteristics of the boundary-layer, storms, and clouds.

• 4-D Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS)

Boundary-relative steeringflow

Steering flow likelihood field after weighting

Example of Combining Fields to Example of Combining Fields to Forecast Thunderstorm LocationForecast Thunderstorm Location

Boundary collision

Collision likelihood field weighted and overlaid on previous field

Example of Combining Fields to Example of Combining Fields to Forecast Thunderstorm LocationForecast Thunderstorm Location

Radar cumulus

Radar cumulus likelihood field weighted and overlaid on previous fields

Example of Combining Fields to Example of Combining Fields to Forecast Thunderstorm LocationForecast Thunderstorm Location

Likelihood fields are summed,

threshold and contoured

produce final forecast

Forecast verification

Example of Combining Fields to Example of Combining Fields to Forecast Thunderstorm LocationForecast Thunderstorm Location

2 June 2000 - Challenge to NWS Forecasters

“…Although our forecasters had discussed the potential for severe thunderstorms to break out, we were anticipating a late start based on extrapolation of the line of storms over Pennsylvania. Our office was behind the curve… The 2 June event underscores the critical nature of detecting boundaries to help in the convective initiation problem.” -Steve Zubrick, NWS SOO

Cold FrontCold Front

Pre-frontal squall line developsPre-frontal squall line develops

2 June 2000

Convergence boundary is yellow line

VDRASvectors areoverlaid

15 minintervals

June 2, 200020:33 – 23:02 UTC

Visible Infrared

2 June 2000

30 min Forecasts

AN-radar 30 min Forecast AN-radar/satellite 30 min Forecast

2 June 2000

30 min Verification

AN-radar 30 min Verification AN-radar/satellite 30 min Verification

Summary of NWS Requirements for GOES-R Plus

• Faster Scanning– 5 minute CONUS updates– 15 minute Full Disk update

• Improved Resolution of Imagery– 0.5 km Visible– 2 km IR

• No Black Outs Due to Eclipse/Keep-out-Zones

• Improved Sounder Spatial Coverage

Further Future Sensors Possibilities