the battle for mindshare
DESCRIPTION
The Battle for Mindshare. A Battle Beyond Access and Retrieval. Dr. John J. Regazzi Miles Conrad Lecture NFAIS Conference 2004. Battle for Mindshare. The Context The ‘Shifting Sands’ What Way Forward. THE CONTEXT. Information Supply Chain. Information Supply Chain Historical. AUTHORS. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Battle for Mindshare The Battle for Mindshare
A Battle Beyond Access and RetrievalA Battle Beyond Access and Retrieval
Dr. John J. Regazzi Miles Conrad Lecture
NFAIS Conference 2004
Battle for MindshareBattle for Mindshare
The ContextThe Context
The ‘Shifting Sands’The ‘Shifting Sands’
What Way ForwardWhat Way Forward
3
Information Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain HistoricalInformation Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain Historical
THE CONTEXTTHE CONTEXT
AUTHORSAUTHORSAUTHORSAUTHORS
PUBLISHERSPUBLISHERSPUBLISHERSPUBLISHERS
LIBRARIESLIBRARIESLIBRARIESLIBRARIES
READERSREADERSREADERSREADERS
Information Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain
4
Information Supply Chain Information Supply Chain Early Online ImpactInformation Supply Chain Information Supply Chain Early Online Impact
AUTHORSAUTHORSAUTHORSAUTHORS
PUBLISHERSPUBLISHERSPUBLISHERSPUBLISHERS
LIBRARIESLIBRARIESLIBRARIESLIBRARIES
READERSREADERSREADERSREADERS
A&I SERVICES, A&I SERVICES, ONLINE ONLINE
VENDORSVENDORS
A&I SERVICES, A&I SERVICES, ONLINE ONLINE
VENDORSVENDORS
Information Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain
THE CONTEXTTHE CONTEXT
5
A simple information “supply chain” A simple information “supply chain”
has been transformed into a complex has been transformed into a complex information network…information network…
THE CONTEXTTHE CONTEXT
Information Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain
6
Information Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain TodayInformation Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain Today
THE CONTEXTTHE CONTEXT
LOCAL SYSTEMS DDS, LOCAL SYSTEMS DDS, SILVER PLATTERSILVER PLATTER
LOCAL SYSTEMS DDS, LOCAL SYSTEMS DDS, SILVER PLATTERSILVER PLATTER
AUTHORSAUTHORS
PUBLISHERSPUBLISHERS
READERSREADERS
SECONDARY SECONDARY PUBLISHINGPUBLISHINGSECONDARY SECONDARY PUBLISHINGPUBLISHING
ONLINE VENDORS ONLINE VENDORS DIALOG,DIALOG,STN, LNSTN, LN
ONLINE VENDORS ONLINE VENDORS DIALOG,DIALOG,STN, LNSTN, LN
INFORMATION INTERMEDIARIESINFORMATION INTERMEDIARIESINFORMATION INTERMEDIARIESINFORMATION INTERMEDIARIES
LIBRARIESLIBRARIESKNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE
MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEMSSYSTEMS
NATIONAL/REGIONAL NATIONAL/REGIONAL CONSORTIACONSORTIA
CORPORATE CORPORATE INFORMATION INFORMATION
SERVICESSERVICES
Information Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain
DOCUMENT DELIVERY DOCUMENT DELIVERY SERVICESSERVICES
DOCUMENT DELIVERY DOCUMENT DELIVERY SERVICESSERVICES
NEW ONLINE NEW ONLINE PORTALSPORTALS
WEB PORTALS WEB PORTALS GOOGLEGOOGLE
NEW ONLINE NEW ONLINE PORTALSPORTALS
WEB PORTALS WEB PORTALS GOOGLEGOOGLE
eBOOK, eJOURNALSeBOOK, eJOURNALSPREPRINT SERVERSPREPRINT SERVERS
CONTENT CONTENT AGGREGATORSAGGREGATORS
eBOOK, eJOURNALSeBOOK, eJOURNALSPREPRINT SERVERSPREPRINT SERVERS
CONTENT CONTENT AGGREGATORSAGGREGATORS
SYNDICATORS & SYNDICATORS & FACTIVA AGENTSFACTIVA AGENTSSYNDICATORS & SYNDICATORS & FACTIVA AGENTSFACTIVA AGENTS
OPEN OPEN ACCESACCES
SS
7
A simple information “supply chain” A simple information “supply chain”
has been transformed into a (perhaps too) has been transformed into a (perhaps too) complex information network …complex information network …
How did this happen?How did this happen?
THE CONTEXTTHE CONTEXT
Information Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain
8
THE CONTEXTTHE CONTEXT
What Happened?What Happened?
Significant A&I Industry Significant A&I Industry GrowthGrowth
Significant A&I Industry Significant A&I Industry GrowthGrowth
Discovery & Access Systems Discovery & Access Systems GrowthGrowth
Discovery & Access Systems Discovery & Access Systems GrowthGrowth
Directory Data Directory Data ExpansionExpansion
Directory Data Directory Data ExpansionExpansion
Technology Technology ExplosionExplosion
Technology Technology ExplosionExplosion
Or Did Or Did It ?It ?
9
Information Technology CostsInformation Technology Costs 1972 vs. 2003$ per million transactions
Information Technology CostsInformation Technology Costs 1972 vs. 2003$ per million transactions
THE CONTEXTTHE CONTEXT
5000
.001
2500
1000
0
4500
9000Storage Characters
TelecommunicationsCharacters NY - LA
CPU PowerInstructions
1972 2003
Explosion of TechnologyExplosion of Technology
10
Refereed Academic Journal GrowthRefereed Academic Journal Growth 1900-2000 Number of JournalsRefereed Academic Journal GrowthRefereed Academic Journal Growth 1900-2000 Number of Journals
THE CONTEXTTHE CONTEXT
100
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%
3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%
3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%
Growth of DataGrowth of Data
11
THE CONTEXTTHE CONTEXT
Number of DatabasesNumber of DatabasesNumber of DatabasesNumber of Databases
1972 1992 2003
78,000
20,000 est.
Records in DatabasesRecords in DatabasesRecords in DatabasesRecords in Databases
1972 1982 1992 2003
2 M 5.2 M4.5 BN
10 BN est.
Growth of DatabasesGrowth of Databases
122122% 10YR % 10YR Growth RateGrowth Rate122122% 10YR % 10YR Growth RateGrowth Rate
150150% 10YR % 10YR Growth RateGrowth Rate150150% 10YR % 10YR Growth RateGrowth Rate
12
STM A&I Global RevenuesSTM A&I Global Revenues1972-20031972-2003STM A&I Global RevenuesSTM A&I Global Revenues1972-20031972-2003
Adjusted figures show that the A&I market is Adjusted figures show that the A&I market is shrinkingshrinking in overall size.in overall size.
THE CONTEXTTHE CONTEXT
1972 1982 1992 2003
$200M
$830M
- 5% Market Growth- 5% Market Growthsince 1999since 1999
- 5% Market Growth- 5% Market Growthsince 1999since 1999
1999Note: 0-1% growth in constant dollar
Growth of the A&I MarketGrowth of the A&I Market
$1BN5.35.3% Annual % Annual GrowthGrowth
5.35.3% Annual % Annual GrowthGrowth
13
What Shifts?What Shifts? University Infrastructure SpendingUniversity Infrastructure Spending A&I Production, Coverage and FocusA&I Production, Coverage and Focus Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search PatternsScientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns Early Shifts in Access ModelsEarly Shifts in Access Models Shifts in MindshareShifts in Mindshare
And why ...?And why ...? With what has commonly been known as the information explosion …With what has commonly been known as the information explosion … With the revolution of information technology fully engaged …With the revolution of information technology fully engaged … With full acceptance, access and use of the technologies now in full With full acceptance, access and use of the technologies now in full
force …force … Why is the Information Access Market Why is the Information Access Market notnot growing but in growing but in
decline?decline?
THE SHIFTING SANDSTHE SHIFTING SANDS
Shifting SandsShifting Sands
14
Research & Library Spending GrowthResearch & Library Spending Growth1975-1995Index
Research & Library Spending GrowthResearch & Library Spending Growth1975-1995Index
THE SHIFTING SANDSTHE SHIFTING SANDS
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
US TotalAcademic R&D
Avg ARLLibraryExpenditure
University Infrastructure SpendingUniversity Infrastructure Spending
4.6% CAGR
2.2% CAGR
15
Library Expenditures as a Percent of University ExpendituresLibrary Expenditures as a Percent of University Expenditures40 ARL Libraries, 1982-2000%
Library Expenditures as a Percent of University ExpendituresLibrary Expenditures as a Percent of University Expenditures40 ARL Libraries, 1982-2000%
THE SHIFTING SANDSTHE SHIFTING SANDS
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
University Infrastructure SpendingUniversity Infrastructure Spending
16
Expenditures at (Private) US University AExpenditures at (Private) US University AExpenditures at (Private) US University AExpenditures at (Private) US University A
THE SHIFTING SANDSTHE SHIFTING SANDS
Serials 0.2%
Monographs 0.1%
Other Materials 0.1%
Salaries & Wages 0.6%
Binding 0.0%
Other 0.3%
Academic Support 63.0%
Other 37.5%
Library 1.3%
University Infrastructure SpendingUniversity Infrastructure Spending
17
A&I Production & CoverageA&I Production & Coverage
Shifting SandsShifting Sands
Creation of inefficient market Creation of inefficient market where library pays multiple times where library pays multiple times for same record, plus (often) for same record, plus (often) increase distribution markupsincrease distribution markups
Shifting SandsShifting Sands
Creation of inefficient market Creation of inefficient market where library pays multiple times where library pays multiple times for same record, plus (often) for same record, plus (often) increase distribution markupsincrease distribution markups
THE SHIFTING SANDSTHE SHIFTING SANDS
Current Indexes OverlapCurrent Indexes Overlap2001 StudyCurrent Indexes OverlapCurrent Indexes Overlap2001 Study
Science Education SocialScience
55%
23%
53%
Records in DatabasesRecords in DatabasesRecords in DatabasesRecords in Databases
1972 1982 1992 2003
2 M 5.2 M4.5 BN
10 BN est.
Significant Significant Redundancies Redundancies
in Public & in Public & Private Private
SectorsSectors
Significant Significant Redundancies Redundancies
in Public & in Public & Private Private
SectorsSectors
122122% % 10YR 10YR
Growth Growth RateRate
122122% % 10YR 10YR
Growth Growth RateRate
STM Database Expansion – Duplication of EffortSTM Database Expansion – Duplication of Effort
18
Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search PatternsScientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns
THE SHIFTING SANDSTHE SHIFTING SANDS
Online Technology ImpactOnline Technology ImpactGrowth in Online Usage DriversOnline Technology ImpactOnline Technology ImpactGrowth in Online Usage Drivers
1972 2002
Web Web HostsHosts
130
172M
1972 2002
Online Online SearchSearch
> 1M
80BN
1972 2002
PC PC UnitsUnits
2.1M
589M
US Household PC AcceptanceUS Household PC AcceptanceSocietal Behavioral Factors
• 22% have more than 1 PC• 7-10% are networked• >50% have Internet Access• 68% children use it for school• 64% adults use it for Information
US Household PC AcceptanceUS Household PC AcceptanceSocietal Behavioral Factors
• 22% have more than 1 PC• 7-10% are networked• >50% have Internet Access• 68% children use it for school• 64% adults use it for Information
1972 2003
⇧⇧600%600%⇧⇧600%600%
HouseholdHouseholds with PC’ss with PC’s
19
Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search PatternsScientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns
THE SHIFTING SANDSTHE SHIFTING SANDS
Work-related Search Engine UseWork-related Search Engine UseDays per Week %
Work-related Search Engine UseWork-related Search Engine UseDays per Week %
0
20
40
60
80
100
Wee
kly
1 Day
2-6
Days
7 Day
s
4112
33
86
Online ExperienceOnline Experience> 3 years using internet%
Online ExperienceOnline Experience> 3 years using internet%
Over 55
PhD's
MD's
Total
82%
70%
91%
86%
Work-related Internet UseWork-related Internet UseDays per Week %
Work-related Internet UseWork-related Internet UseDays per Week %
0
20
40
60
80
100
Wee
kly
1-3
Days
4-5
Days
6-7
Days
47
331595
Increase Increase to to 65%65% in over in over
5555 group group
Increase Increase to to 65%65% in over in over
5555 group group
20
Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search PatternsScientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns
Shifting SandsShifting Sands
Experimentation by Experimentation by primary publishers with primary publishers with free access to metadatafree access to metadata IEEE+IEEE+ GoogleGoogle Cross SearchCross Search
Shifting SandsShifting Sands
Experimentation by Experimentation by primary publishers with primary publishers with free access to metadatafree access to metadata IEEE+IEEE+ GoogleGoogle Cross SearchCross Search
THE SHIFTING SANDSTHE SHIFTING SANDS
Information Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain HistoricalInformation Supply ChainInformation Supply Chain Historical
AUTHORSAUTHORSAUTHORSAUTHORS
PUBLISHERSPUBLISHERSPUBLISHERSPUBLISHERS
SEARCH SEARCH ENGINEENGINE
SEARCH SEARCH ENGINEENGINE
READERSREADERSREADERSREADERS
Early shift in Access Models to desktopEarly shift in Access Models to desktop
21
Top 3 Online Scientific Search ResourcesTop 3 Online Scientific Search ResourcesLibrarians VS ScientistsTop 3 Online Scientific Search ResourcesTop 3 Online Scientific Search ResourcesLibrarians VS Scientists
Shifts in MindshareShifts in Mindshare
THE SHIFTING SANDSTHE SHIFTING SANDS
42%
37%
31%
0%
0%
11%
2%
2%
2%
39%
10%
9%
Science Direct
ISI Web of Science
Medline
Yahoo
PubMedLibrariansScientists
Who has the mindshare lead?Who has the mindshare lead?
22
Search Engine vs. A&I Industry Search Engine vs. A&I Industry 2002 $, Billions
Search Engine vs. A&I Industry Search Engine vs. A&I Industry 2002 $, Billions
Shifts in MindshareShifts in Mindshare
THE SHIFTING SANDSTHE SHIFTING SANDS
30
3
2
0.8
Market Value
Sales Revenue
Search Engine - 5 YRSDevelopment
A & I - 100 YRSDevelopment
Just how much are Search Engines worth?Just how much are Search Engines worth?
23
But what will researchers need and will search But what will researchers need and will search engines alone be able to deliverengines alone be able to deliver
Scientists and Researchers have needed to become much more pragmatic Scientists and Researchers have needed to become much more pragmatic
Researchers increasingly work in teams – less emphasis on research and Researchers increasingly work in teams – less emphasis on research and more on development as seen in top five information sources used more on development as seen in top five information sources used
Corporate research teams are involved from design to market launch and Corporate research teams are involved from design to market launch and need information that is traditional (journals, reports, etc.) but also business need information that is traditional (journals, reports, etc.) but also business and regulatoryand regulatory
Data Integration/Data MiningData Integration/Data Mining
WHAT WAY FORWARDWHAT WAY FORWARD
A Sea of ChangeA Sea of Change
24
DATA INTEGRATION/DATA MININGDATA INTEGRATION/DATA MINING Scientists still have to integrate different information sources in a Scientists still have to integrate different information sources in a
related context, be they sources of internal & external information, or related context, be they sources of internal & external information, or scientific and business informationscientific and business information
BCG estimates $282M (33% of R&D costs) could be saved with an BCG estimates $282M (33% of R&D costs) could be saved with an integrated content platformintegrated content platform
Making informed decisions: The top three barriers identified by Making informed decisions: The top three barriers identified by Outsell for corporate scientistsOutsell for corporate scientists
Inability to compare across information sourcesInability to compare across information sources Determining quality, credibility and accuracyDetermining quality, credibility and accuracy Knowing what is availableKnowing what is available
Key driver to improved productivity in biopharmaceutical R&D, Key driver to improved productivity in biopharmaceutical R&D, recognized by McKinsey, is successful integration of datarecognized by McKinsey, is successful integration of data
WHAT WAY FORWARDWHAT WAY FORWARD
Pharmaceutical and Biotech NeedsPharmaceutical and Biotech Needs
0
50
100
150
200
250
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Ind
exed
Gro
wth
(19
91 =
100
)R&D Expenditure
Sales
Development Time
New Drugs
25
WHAT WAY FORWARDWHAT WAY FORWARD
Health Care NeedsHealth Care Needs
HistoryHistory Physical ExamPhysical Exam
LabLab
DiagnosisDiagnosis
EvaluationEvaluation
PreventionPrevention
Risk ReductionRisk Reduction
OrdersOrders DrugsDrugs ProceduresProcedures TestsTests
ReferralsReferrals
Patient EducationPatient Education
Patient Information and TreatmentPatient Information and Treatment
26
Agricultural Engineering NeedsAgricultural Engineering Needs
TREATMENTTREATMENT ASSESSMENTASSESSMENT
CONTEXTCONTEXT
CABI CABI COMPENDIUMCOMPENDIUM
Search the database to produce a list of possible pests.
Datasheet provides a route to further text, pictures and maps.
Compare pest and crop distribution
WHAT WAY FORWARDWHAT WAY FORWARD
27
Who can deliver these viable information resources? Who can deliver these viable information resources? Well neither content nor search is king here!Well neither content nor search is king here!
Rather it is those organizations which canRather it is those organizations which can Filter and selectFilter and select Structure the contentStructure the content Provide the essential information at the right timeProvide the essential information at the right time Provide a context – ‘a sense-making’ toolProvide a context – ‘a sense-making’ tool
WHAT WAY FORWARDWHAT WAY FORWARD
SummarySummary
In short, the future belongs not to those that merely In short, the future belongs not to those that merely navigate us through cyberspace, nor those who navigate us through cyberspace, nor those who populate it with data. Rather it belongs to those who populate it with data. Rather it belongs to those who help us make sense of all that is available to us.help us make sense of all that is available to us.
In short, the future belongs not to those that merely In short, the future belongs not to those that merely navigate us through cyberspace, nor those who navigate us through cyberspace, nor those who populate it with data. Rather it belongs to those who populate it with data. Rather it belongs to those who help us make sense of all that is available to us.help us make sense of all that is available to us.