The Automobile EraBy the Numbers

Norman W. GarrickLecture 3.1

Sustainable Transportation

1915 Model T

http://www.seriouswheels.com/pics-1800-1919/1915-Ford-Model-T-b-nf.jpg

Henry Ford did not invent the automobile or the assembly line. He did, however, change the world by using an assembly line technique to produce cars which could be afforded by everyone. From 1909 to 1927, the Ford Motor Company built more than 15 million Model T cars. Without a doubt, Henry Ford transformed the economic and social fabric of the 20th century.

http://www.modelt.ca/background.html

http://www.uniquecarsandparts.com.au/images/car_info/large/ford_model_t_ad.jpg

What Issues of Sustainability are Associated with Increased VMT?

Vehicle Miles Traveled or

The World After the Model T

Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm

1908The Model T

1930sThe Great Depression

1940-45World War II

1956Highway Bill

1973First Oil Crisis

1979Second Oil Crisis

1949Housing Act

1992ISTEA

Post 2005 ???

Before-the-War

After-the-War

Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm

3,000,000,000,000 miles per year

3 Trillion Miles

How much fuel?

At average fleet efficiency rate of 20 mpg we use 150,000,000,000 gallons of gasoline per year

150,000,000,000 gallons of gasoline per year

What is the retail cost this gasoline?

At an average cost of $4:00 per gallon

We spend $600,000,000,000 on gasoline per year

$15,000,000,000,000 Gross Domestic Product of the USA

Retail gasoline cost as a fraction of USA GDP?

4 out of every $1004 %

% of GDP spent on

Housing 24 %Healthcare 16 %

Food 12 %Transportation 11%

Education 7 %

VMT/day/capita

Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html

Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm

VMT/capita in USA

• Peaked at 27.9 miles per day per capita in 2004• Deceased by 1.4 miles per day in 2008 – largest one year

decrease ever in absolute terms• In 1942 and 1943, VMT/capita decreased by over 20% in

consecutive years• In contrast the decrease in 2008 was only 5%• The only times VMT/capita decreased was during

i) The great depression of the 1930s, ii) World War IIiii) The Oil Crisis of the 1970s, and iv) The recession of the early 1980sv) Now

VMT in USA is about27 miles per day per person

VMT/capita/dayPortland (OR) Metropolitan Area

VMT/capita versus GDP

Ref: Millard-Ball, A and Schipper, L ‘Are We Reaching a Plateau or “Peak” Travel? Trends in Passenger Transportation in Six Industrialized Countries’, TRB Meeting 2010

Motor Vehicles/1000 in USA

Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html

Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm

China 1995

Western EuropeChina 2005Africa 2005

Central and South America

Motor Vehicles/1000 USA versus China

2007240 million vehicles in USA28 million vehicles in China

Motor Vehicles/1000 China

Motor Vehicles in USA800 per 1000 people

Motor Vehicles per 1000

The result of supply driven transportation in Zürich?

Total Number of Vehicles versus Population in USA1900 to 2005

Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html

Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm

Vehicles versus VMT in USA1900 to 2005

Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html

Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm

VMT per Vehicle in USA1900 to 2005

Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html

Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm

Creating Automobility

How did we go from 5 to 200 vehicles per 1000 in less that 20 years?

This change required an enormous shift in how we lived and the structure of our cities.

One battle ground in this revolution was our city streets.

VMT/capita/day Vehicle per 1000

Before the advent of the automobile, the users of city streets were diverse and included children at

play and pedestrians at large.

By 1930, most streets were primarily motor thoroughfares where pedestrians were condemned

as ‘jaywalkers.’

In Fighting Traffic, Peter Norton argues that to accommodate automobiles, the American city

required not only a physical change but also a social one: before the city could be reconstructed for the

sake of motorists, its streets had to be socially reconstructed as places where motorists belonged.

It was not an evolution, but a bloody and sometimes violent revolution.