the australian air quality forecasting system -...
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
THE AUSTRALIAN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM -
Lessons Learned and Looking Forward
Martin Cope, Sunhee Lee, Alan Wain and Dale Hess
www.cawcr.gov.au
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Air Quality- Australian Coastal Airsheds
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2
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1993-1994
1994-1995
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
Num
ber o
f day
s
BushfireinfluencedNo bushfires
Sydney: Days per year 1-h O3 > 0.1 ppm
(DECC- Trends in air quality in New South Wales 1994-2006)
Ozone
Particles
Sydney 2009 Sept dust storm at Sunrise
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Air Quality- Rural Cities
16/12/06 23/12/06 30/12/06 6/01/07 13/01/07
Ozo
ne c
once
ntra
tion
[ppb
]
0
20
40
60
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PM2.
5 con
cent
ratio
n [
g/m
3 ]
0
20
40
60
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
OzonePM2.5
16/04/07 23/04/07 30/04/07 7/05/07 14/05/07
Ozo
ne c
once
ntra
tion
[ppb
]
0
20
40
60
80
100
PM2.
5 con
cent
ratio
n [
g/m
3 ]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Daily PM2.5 levels
Hourly O3 levels
Wildfires 2006/2007
AAQS-PM exceeded for 13 days
Prescribed burning
AAQS-PM exceeded for 7 days
A fire impacted rural site- Ovens Valley
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Particles <10 m (1-hour average). Selected EPA Victoria Sites
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
CO
NC
ENTR
ATI
ON
( g
m-3
)
MilduraBendigoAlphington
PM10 (hourly average)
A dust impacted rural site- Mildura
• Many of the largest dust impacts (frequency and magnitude) are experienced by rural cities.
Map of mean DSI for the period 1992 to 2005
(DSI- dust storm index)
1/01/05 3/01/05 5/01/05 7/01/05
Air Quality- Rural Cities
(Data- EPA Victoria)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Air Quality Forecasting Systems in Australia
AAQFS forecast domainsDust, smoke, O3, NO2, PM10,PM2.5, AQI
Haze-botWinter wood smoke
Low visibility(EPA -> Bureau)
Expert SystemOzone, visibility
Heuristic + BureauSmoke(EPA)
StatisticalPM10
(Bureau)
Expert Systemozone, visibility
(EPA)
Expert SystemOzone, visibility(EPA->Bureau)
AQ forecasts typically for 24 to 36 h
CFS- smoke(EPA)
Australian grid-meso_LAPS (0.125°)-CTM (0.20°); offline; dust and smoke 36-h forecast issued daily
Australian Air Quality Forecasting System
Regional and urban grids
138.1 138.3 138.5 138.7 138.9
LONGITUDE
-35.3
-35.1
-34.9
-34.7
-34.5
LATI
TUD
E
ALDINGA BEACH
MALLALA
McLAREN VALE
ADELAIDE
GAWLER
MT. BARKER
LOBETHAL
GULFST. VINCENT
144.2 144.4 144.6 144.8 145.0 145.2 145.4
EASTING
-38.4
-38.2
-38.0
-37.8
-37.6
NO
RTH
ING
CRANBOURNE
FRANKSTON
DANDENONG
BRIGHTONPAISLEY
SYDENHAM
MT DANDENONG
SUNBURY
PANTON HILL
WERRIBEE
PORT PHILLIPBAY
BASS STRAIT
MELBOURNE
GEELONG
150.5 150.6 150.7 150.8 150.9 151.0 151.1 151.2 151.3 151.4EASTING
-34.1
-34.0
-33.9
-33.8
-33.7
-33.6
NO
RTH
ING
TASMANSEA
RICHMOND
SYDNEY
CAMDEN
MASCOT
PENRITH
HOMEBUSH
LIVERPOOL
WARRAGAMBA
Adelaide
Regional and urban grids-NWP meso_LAPS (0.05°)-CTM (0.05 and 0.01°); -gas-phase primary and photochemical smog species; -aerosol species include dust, sea salt, primary aerosols (domestic wood combustion, motor vehicle) + secondary (simple) inorganic.-24-36 hour forecasts issued twice per day
http://www.dar.csiro.au/information/aaqfs.html
(Set up for the Sydney 2000 Olympics)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Numerical Weather Prediction System
EmissionsProcessing
System + Data
3-dimensionalair pollution
concentrationforecasts
Chemical TransportModel
Verification System+ AQ data
Web + Graphical DisplaySystems
Australian Air Quality Forecasting System
Provided by the State Environment Departments
Bureau of
Meteorology
CSIRO
Provided to the State Environment Departments
NMOC
00 UTC and12 UTC
forecasts
Ozone forecasting
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
144.2 144.4 144.6 144.8 145.0 145.2 145.4LONGITUDE (degrees)
-38.4
-38.2
-38.0
-37.8
-37.6
LATI
TUD
E (d
egre
es) ALPH
BXHL MTCL
PTCK
PAIS
BRTN
RMIT
GSTH GRVD
PORT PHILLIPBAY
BASS STRAIT
MELBOURNE
GEELONG
G
W E
Melbourne60 ppb
PersistenceRegional 0.13Sub-regional 0.12Point 0.13
1200 UTCRegional 0.73Sub-regional 0.33Point 0.23
POD
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Wind-blown Dust Forecasting
143.0 144.0 145.0 146.0 147.0
-40.0
-39.0
-38.0
-37.0
-36.0
MELBOURNE
WANGARATTA
BENDIGO
BALLARAT
WARRAGULGEELONG
WODONGASHEPPARTON
CASTLEMAINE
BASS STRAIT
02468101112141516182021222425262830
NSW
VICTORIA
SOIL TYPE143.0 144.0 145.0 146.0 147.0
-40.0
-39.0
-38.0
-37.0
-36.0
MELBOURNE
WANGARATTA
BENDIGO
BALLARAT
WARRAGULGEELONG
WODONGASHEPPARTON
CASTLEMAINE
BASS STRAIT
02468101112141516182021222425262830
NSW
VICTORIA
SOIL TYPE141 142 143 144 145 146 147
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
MELBOURNE
WANGARATTA
BENDIGO
WARRAGULGEELONG
WODONGA
CASTLEMAINE
SWANHILL
HORSHAM
WARRNAMBOOL
KING IS
TASMANIA
BASS STRAIT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
NSW
VICTORIA
LAI: June(Hua Lu 2003)
141 142 143 144 145 146 147-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
MELBOURNE
WANGARATTA
BENDIGO
WARRAGULGEELONG
WODONGA
CASTLEMAINE
SWANHILL
HORSHAM
WARRNAMBOOL
KING IS
TASMANIA
BASS STRAIT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
NSW
VICTORIA
LAI: June141 142 143 144 145 146 147
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
MELBOURNE
WANGARATTA
BENDIGO
WARRAGULGEELONG
WODONGA
CASTLEMAINE
SWANHILL
HORSHAM
WARRNAMBOOL
KING IS
TASMANIA
BASS STRAIT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
NSW
VICTORIA
LAI: June(Hua Lu 2003)
141 142 143 144 145 146 147-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
MELBOURNE
WANGARATTA
BENDIGO
WARRAGULGEELONG
WODONGA
CASTLEMAINE
SWANHILL
HORSHAM
WARRNAMBOOL
KING IS
TASMANIA
BASS STRAIT
0
0.009
0.015
0.021
0.027
VICTORIA
NSW
TASMANIASOIL MOISTURE CONTENT (kg kg-1 )
6 JUNE 2003: HOUR 21:00
141 142 143 144 145 146 147-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
MELBOURNE
WANGARATTA
BENDIGO
WARRAGULGEELONG
WODONGA
CASTLEMAINE
SWANHILL
HORSHAM
WARRNAMBOOL
KING IS
TASMANIA
BASS STRAIT
0
0.009
0.015
0.021
0.027
VICTORIA
NSW
TASMANIASOIL MOISTURE CONTENT (kg kg-1 )141 142 143 144 145 146 147
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
MELBOURNE
WANGARATTA
BENDIGO
WARRAGULGEELONG
WODONGA
CASTLEMAINE
SWANHILL
HORSHAM
WARRNAMBOOL
KING IS
TASMANIA
BASS STRAIT
0
0.009
0.015
0.021
0.027
VICTORIA
NSW
TASMANIASOIL MOISTURE CONTENT (kg kg-1 )
6 JUNE 2003: HOUR 21:00
141 142 143 144 145 146 147-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
MELBOURNE
WANGARATTA
BENDIGO
WARRAGULGEELONG
WODONGA
CASTLEMAINE
SWANHILL
HORSHAM
WARRNAMBOOL
KING IS
TASMANIA
BASS STRAIT
10
200
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
3000
NSW
VICTORIA
6 JUNE 2003: HOUR 21:00
Emissions (kg/s)
141 142 143 144 145 146 147-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
MELBOURNE
WANGARATTA
BENDIGO
WARRAGULGEELONG
WODONGA
CASTLEMAINE
SWANHILL
HORSHAM
WARRNAMBOOL
KING IS
TASMANIA
BASS STRAIT
5
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
NSW
VICTORIA
6 JUNE 2003: HOUR 21:00
PM10 (g/m3)
Lu, H. and Y. Shao dust scheme
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/
10:00 EST October 23rd 2002
AAQFS-dust verification with MODIS
Verification through analysis of extreme events
Nov-Jan 2006
d_fac0.5 (Op)
d_fac0.75
forecast 4 4missed 1 1
false alarm 4 1
AAQFS Validation Project Results
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Latitude (deg)
Alti
tude
(km
)
2006-11-16 17:00 UTC AAQFS Dust PM-60
-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
AAQFS-dust validation with CALIPSO
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
135.0 136.0 137.0 138.0 139.0 140.0
LONGITUDE
-37.0
-36.0
-35.0
-34.0
-33.0
-32.0
LATI
TUD
E
PORT LINCOLN
WHYALLA
PORT AUGUSTA
PORT PIRIE
CAPE JERVIS
ADELAIDE
GAWLER
CLARE
MAITLAND
KIMBA
KANGAROO IS
MURRAYBRIDGE
WOOMERA
Location of Sentinel hotspots11-12 Jan 2005
Smoke Plume Envelope Forecasting
•Retrieve automated hotspot locations via satellite images•Process the data to determine fire locations•Initiate qualitative emissions at source locations and compute transport and dispersion as a passive scalar
135.0 136.0 137.0 138.0 139.0 140.0
LONGITUDE
-37.0
-36.0
-35.0
-34.0
-33.0
-32.0
LATI
TUD
E
PORT LINCOLN
WHYALLA
PORT AUGUSTA
PORT PIRIE
CAPE JERVIS
CLARE
MAITLAND
KIMBA
KANGAROO IS
WOOMERA
NETLEYELIZABETH
NORTHFIELD
17:00 Jan 11, 2005
Smoke plume impacts Adelaideas observedhttp://sentinel2.ga.gov.au/acres/sentinel/index.shtml
Latest fire module in CTM
Observed and modelled 1-h concentration time series for ozone at Geelong South.
Ozone concentration time series are for December 2006. Three plume rise scenarios
020406080
100120140160180
0 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 384 432 480 528 576 624 672
Co
ncen
trati
on
(p
pb
)
Time (h)
Geelong South: 1-h O3
obs_conc no f ires 1000 m2000m 3000 m
Melbourne
Alpine fire
TAPM-CTM
Inline chemical transportCarbon Bond V chemistry;
VBS for SOA; ISORROPIA-II
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
AAQFS- lessons learned
• Ozone (non-fire), large dust storms and fires are forecast reasonably well.
• Urban particles are not well predicted. • 0.05º NWP meteorology is above urban scale; and the
nocturnal pbl is poorly represented.• Air emissions inventories for particles were problematic
(but have since improved).• Smoke is modelled as a tracer, hence no coupling between smoke and ozone/secondary particles.
• Dust forecasting relies on some climatological data (not good for droughts)
SCIENCE
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
AAQFS- lessons learned
• Inventories are not readily updated by the EPAs • Little on-going support in-house to maintain the system and address science and logistical problems
• Little on-going support to promote AQ forecasting to external stakeholders
LOGISTICAL
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Australian AQ forecasting- looking forward
• Focus on improving our forecasting capability for dust and smoke
• Large scale impacts, likely to increase under a warming trend;• Significant local-regional scale impacts of extended planned burning
season• Particles and photochemical smog
• Volcanic ash forecasting for aviation
Projection of dust events for summer months in Victoria, Australia
• Dynamical downscaling• ESM -> Regional Atmosphere -> Dust emission + transport;• Four GCM model ensemble• 50 km resolution across Australia;• Decadal simulations of dusty months (Jan and Feb)
•1996 – 2005; 2065 - 2074
10 year frequency (PM10 > 50 g/m3)
Dust Event
PM10 >50 µgm-3 Extreme Dust Event
PM10 >100 µgm3
Decade 1 Decade 3 Change Decade 1 Decade 3 Change
MK35 207 206 -0.5% 128 135 +5%
ECHAM 201 192 -4% 125 125 0%
UKMO 194 177 -9% 122 120 -2%
GFDL 204 213 +4% 133 140 +5%
Average -2% ± 6% +2% ± 4%
Thank you
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Thank-you
www.cawcr.gov.au
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
MK35 ECHAM UKMO GFDL
RELATIVE
CHAN
GE
GCM CLIMATOLOGY
2070 ‐ 2000 RELATIVE CHANGE
Frequency of PM10 >50 µg/m3Frequency of PM10 >100 µg/m3