the ascent of the developing world steven radelet the great surge
TRANSCRIPT
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The Ascent of the Developing World
STEVEN RADELET
the
GREAT SURGE
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Global Poverty is Falling Fast
1820 1834 1848 1862 1876 1890 1904 1918 1932 1946 1960 1974 1988 20020
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Bourguignon and Morrisson Data Ravallion and Chen Data
Num
ber o
f Peo
ple
(Mill
ions
)Number of people living in absolute poverty
($1/day), 1820-2011
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Num
ber o
f Poo
r Peo
ple
(mill
ions
)
Perc
enta
ge o
f Pop
ulati
on
$1.90/day Poverty (2011 PPP
Percentage (right axis)
Number of People (left axis)
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Shifting FortunesTotal Number of People in each Consumption Bracket
Less than $1.25/day $1.25—$2/day $2—$5/day More than $5/day0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1,966
1,000 1,037
662
1,0111,148
2,023
1,771
1993 2011
Num
ber o
f Peo
ple
(mill
ions
)
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Incomes are GrowingGDP per Capita, Developing Countries (1960=100, unweighted
average)
19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20120
50
100
150
200
250
300
GD
P pe
r Cap
ita
(inde
xed
valu
e, 1
960
= 10
0)
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Growth Includes Many More Countries
Exceeding 2% Exceeding 4% Negative (less than 0%)0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
21
10
51
71
30
10
1977 - 1994 1995 - 2013
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More Children Are LivingPercentage of Children Dying Before Age 5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20130%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
22%
18%
13%
10%
8%
5%
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People are Living LongerLife Expectancy in Developing Countries
At Birth Contingent on Reaching Age Five30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
50
6159
6665
69
1960 - 1965 1980 - 1985 2005 - 2010
Year
s
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More People are EducatedAverage years of Schooling Completed Among Adults
1970 1990 20100
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
3.4
5.2
7.1
4.0
5.8
7.6
2.7
4.7
6.5
All Adults Males Females
Year
s
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Democracy is SpreadingTotal Number of Democracies, Developing Countries
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
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There are Far Fewer WarsNumber of Major Civil Wars in Developing Countries
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20130
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
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And Far Fewer Battle DeathsTotal Number of Battle Deaths, All Conflicts
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20130
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Total Battle Deaths (PRIO) Total Battle Deaths (UCDP)
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But Many Are Still Left Behind…
Average Income Levels, 3 Groups of Developing Countries
19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20120
100
200
300
400
500
600
25 Fastest - Growing Countries Average of 109 Developing Countries
25 Slowest - Growing Countries
Ave
rage
per
Cap
ita
Inco
me
(196
0=10
0)
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The Beginning of the End of Extreme Poverty? Three Projections
Percentage of people with incomes less than $1.25/day
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Incomes Continue To ClimbAverage Income in Developing Countries, Population
Weighted, Excluding China (Constant Prices, 1994=100)
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World Population: High, Medium, and Low
Projections