The Art of Problem SolvingTJ Gokcen | @tjgokcen

The Art

Why is the wheelbarrow designed this way?

The Art

Evolution of wheelbarrow

The Art

Why is the wheelbarrow designed this way?

Balance Scale

What is the minimum number of weights required to weigh objects of any number of kg from one to forty?

Balance Scale

1

2

4

8

16

32

Is this correct?

Balance Scale

1 3 9 27

The correct answer is 4

Problem Solving Components

• Decision Makers• The ones faced with the problem

Problem Solving Components

• Decision Makers• The ones faced with the problem

• Controllable Variables• Aspects of the problem decision maker can control

Problem Solving Components

• Decision Makers• The ones faced with the problem

• Controllable Variables• Aspects of the problem decision maker can control

• Uncontrolled Variables• Aspects of the problem decision maker cannot control

Problem Solving Components

• Decision Makers• The ones faced with the problem

• Controllable Variables• Aspects of the problem decision maker can control

• Uncontrolled Variables• Aspects of the problem decision maker cannot control

• Constraints• Imposed from within or without on the possible values of the controlled and

uncontrolled variables

Problem Solving Components

• Decision Makers• The ones faced with the problem

• Controllable Variables• Aspects of the problem decision maker can control

• Uncontrolled Variables• Aspects of the problem decision maker cannot control

• Constraints• Imposed from within or without on the possible values of the controlled and

uncontrolled variables• Possible Outcomes

• Produced jointly by the decision maker’s choice and the uncontrolled variables

Choice

• Choice exists only when

• The action of the decision maker makes a difference in the value of the outcome.

Optimize vs Satisfice

• Decision maker tries to select a course of action• One that is efficient relative to the desired outcome.• This is what the decision maker values.

Optimize vs Satisfice

• Decision maker tries to select a course of action• One that is efficient relative to the desired outcome.• This is what the decision maker values.

• Effectiveness is the product of efficiency an value.

Optimize vs Satisfice

• Decision maker tries to select a course of action• One that is efficient relative to the desired outcome.• This is what the decision maker values.

• Effectiveness is the product of efficiency an value.

• One who seeks the best, the most effective, course of action is said to optimize

Optimize vs Satisfice

• Decision maker tries to select a course of action• One that is efficient relative to the desired outcome.• This is what the decision maker values.

• Effectiveness is the product of efficiency an value.

• One who seeks the best, the most effective, course of action is said to optimize

• One who seeks a solution that is good enough is said to satisfice

Our Problems

• Many of our problems derive from our dissatisfaction with the current state

Our Problems

• Many of our problems derive from our dissatisfaction with the current state

• Problem solving is focused more on getting rid of what we do not want

Our Problems

• Many of our problems derive from our dissatisfaction with the current state

• Problem solving is focused more on getting rid of what we do not want

• The effort to get rid of what we do not want is reactive

Our Problems

• Many of our problems derive from our dissatisfaction with the current state

• Problem solving is focused more on getting rid of what we do not want

• The effort to get rid of what we do not want is reactive• The effort to obtain what we want is proactive

Reactive Problem Solving

Reactive Problem Solving

Reactive Problem Solving

Reactive Problem Solving

Reactive Problem Solving

Proactive Problem Solving: Idealized Design

• We specify where we want to go and we try to get there

Proactive Problem Solving: Idealized Design

• We specify where we want to go and we try to get there• Always imbedded in a planning process

• Constraints:• Technological feasibility• Operational Viability

Proactive Problem Solving: Idealized Design

• We specify where we want to go and we try to get there• Always imbedded in a planning process

• Constraints:• Technological feasibility• Operational Viability

• Bounded rationality

Idealized Design: An Example

• Planning backwards from where one wants to be simplifies planning• Consider a tennis tournament:

• If 64 players enter a tennis tournament• How many matches must be played to determine the winner?

Idealized Design: An Example

• Planning backwards from where one wants to be simplifies planning• Consider a tennis tournament:

• If 64 players enter a tennis tournament• How many matches must be played to determine the winner?

• 32: 1st round• 16: 2nd round• 8: 3rd round • 4: Quarter finals• 2: Semi final• 1: final• 63 games

Idealized Design: An Example

• Planning backwards from where one wants to be simplifies planning• Consider a tennis tournament:

• If 64 players enter a tennis tournament• How many matches must be played to determine the winner?

• How many losers would there have to be?• 63.

Idealized Design: An Example

• A more complicated example• Consider a tournament:

• If 97 players enter a tennis tournament• How many matches must be played to determine the winner?

• How many losers would there have to be?• 96.

Problem: Reading Books

• Primary School – low income area• Illiteracy problem• Programs developed failed

Problem: Reading Books

• Primary School – low income area• Illiteracy problem• Programs developed failed• Parents do not read, so the children follow their parents

Solution: Reading Books

• Introduced silent movies• Movies the kids love

• No sound, subtitles• Promoted reading

Problem: A Fish Story

• Frozen fish – new product• The company has its own fleet• Own chain fish markets

• Installed freezing and packaging at its dockside plants

• Vigorous marketing

• Sales was high initially but then dropped off sharply

• Research showed the taste was not as good as fresh fish

Problem: A Fish Story

• Chemists went to work• Blamed chemical changes after fish is caught• Recommended fish to be frozen on board• Or fish to be kept alive until they are brought back

Problem: A Fish Story

• Chemists went to work• Blamed chemical changes after fish is caught• Recommended fish to be frozen on board• Or fish to be kept alive until they are brought back

• Installed pools on the boats with fish nets• Again, the initial trial sales numbers were high but dropped off sharply after a

while

Problem: A Fish Story

• More research has been done• Found out that inactivity in fish caused again a chemical reaction that affected

the taste• Installed bigger pools with lots of space• But no movement

• What would we do?

Solution: A Fish Story

A predator was put in the pool

Problem: For Whom The Bridge Tolls

• The Port Authority has been reducing rates

• This resulted in increased traffic and congestion

• City complained• PA, does not want to increase

tolls• Most cars coming into the city

has 1 or 2 passengers• What would we do?

Problem: For Whom The Bridge Tolls

Express Lanes with no tolls

Problem: Dishwasher

• A major house appliances company in the mid-50’s

• Through research they find that the housework that makes everybody unhappy the most is the dishwashing

• So, they bring out a dishwasher

• But the sales are not good

Solution: Dishwasher

Installed trays

Problem: Banking

• A projection of paper work performed by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in 70’s

• At the time, cheques were used heavily

• It was determined that by 2000, the amount of space is not going to be enough to do the amount of work

• More than all of Cleveland

• What would we do?

Solution: Banking

EFT

Problem: The Smart Donkey

• Mexico, university academics• Working with “backward”

farmers• Trying to improve themselves

and their lot• Irrigate the fields by digging

ditches• They needed to determine the

level paths over the hilly fields

Solution: The Smart Donkey

There is a lot of wisdom in the old ways, do not be too quick to dismiss it