the application of oyster and seagrass models to evaluate … presentations/jul… · south florida...

S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T

The Application of Oyster and Seagrass Models

to Evaluate Alternative Inflow Scenarios Related to Everglades Restoration

Christopher Buzzelli, Ph.D. Senior Scientist Coastal Ecosystems Section South Florida Water Management District [email protected]

ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTORS: Patti Gorman, Zhiqiang Chen, Yongshan Wan, Peter Doering

Conference on Ecological and Ecosystem Restoration New Orleans - July 28 - August 1, 2014


EVERGLADES RESTORATION


EVERGLADES RESTORATION • South Florida is a heavily modified aquatic landscape


EVERGLADES RESTORATION • South Florida is a heavily modified aquatic landscape • System (1970’s) designed for ~2,000,000 people • Presently there are > 8,300,000 people • 3380 km of canals, 1225 water structures, 70 pumping stations


EVERGLADES RESTORATION • South Florida is a heavily modified aquatic landscape • System (1970’s) designed for ~2,000,000 people • Presently there are > 8,300,000 people • 3380 km of canals, 1225 water structures, 70 pumping stations • Excess freshwater released to sea for flood protection • Damage to coastal aquatic ecology


EVERGLADES RESTORATION • South Florida is a heavily modified aquatic landscape • System (1970’s) designed for ~2,000,000 people • Presently there are > 8,300,000 people • 3380 km of canals, 1225 water structures, 70 pumping stations • Excess freshwater released to sea for flood protection • Damage to coastal aquatic ecology • Estimated $13.5 billion cost to restore!


CENTRAL EVERGLADES PLANNING PROJECT (CEPP)


CENTRAL EVERGLADES PLANNING PROJECT (CEPP) • CEPP to advance restoration projects



• Reduce Lake Okeechobee releases to coastal zone by diverting freshwater to the south

• Stabilize salinity and water quality conditions for estuarine habitats



• Reduce Lake Okeechobee releases to coastal zone by diverting freshwater to the south

• Stabilize salinity and water quality conditions for estuarine habitats

• Integrated modeling to link watershed projects, estuarine salinity, and biota


Caloosahatchee River Estuary (CRE) • Watershed and river modified for agriculture,

urbanization, flood control since 1880’s • Upstream boundary located at S-79, extends

~48 km to Sanibel Bridge • 56 km2; ~2.7 m depth; 5-60 d flushing time • Oyster and seagrass habitats near mouth

St. Lucie River Estuary (SLE) • Freshwater system until 1892; watershed

modified for agriculture & urbanization • North Fork, South Fork, Middle Estuary

between water structures and inlet • 29 km2; ~2.4 m depth; 2-40 d flushing time • Oyster habitat scattered; seagrass in SIRL


Monthly Average ECB Inflow (m3 d-1)0.0 5.0e+6 1.0e+7 1.5e+7 2.0e+7 2.5e+7 3.0e+7

Salin

ity a

t Cap

e C

oral

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CEPP INTEGRATIVE

MODELING FRAMEWORK

CEPP INFLOW SCENARIOS Daily inflows 1965-2005

ECB, FWO, ALT4R scenarios CRE = S79 at upstream limit

SLE = multiple tributary inflows

SALINITY PREDICTIONS Hydrodynamic model

Statistical model CRE =Cape Coral, Shell Point SLE =US1, Boy Scout Island

ECOLOGICAL MODELS Cape Coral & US1 – Oyster

Shell Point – Oyster and Halodule Boy Scout Island - Syringodium


CEPP INFLOW SCENARIOS



• CEPP = partnership between the USACE and the SFWMD

• Projects on publicly owned lands to redistribute water





• 259 million m3 of water to be captured and redirected southward






• Landscape-scale flows with Regional Simulation Model (RSM)

• Includes Indian River Lagoon South (SLE) and C-43 Reservoir (CRE)






• Landscape-scale flows with Regional Simulation Model (RSM)

• Includes Indian River Lagoon South (SLE) and C-43 Reservoir (CRE)

• 41 y daily inflow scenarios (1965-2005) ECB, FWO, ALT4R

‒ Existing Base Condition = present water system configuration

‒ Future Without Project = future water system without CEPP but includes IRL-South (SLE) and C-43 Reservoir (CRE)

‒ Alternative 4R = FWO including CEPP projects to capture water


ESTUARINE SALINITY PREDICTIONS

Cape Coral

Shell Point BSI

US1

Caloosahatchee River Estuary St. Lucie River Estuary


ESTUARINE SALINITY PREDICTIONS • Multivariate salinity time series modeling for CRE & SLE • Hydrodynamic modeling + Intensive salinity monitoring

Cape Coral

Shell Point BSI

US1



ESTUARINE SALINITY PREDICTIONS • Multivariate salinity time series modeling for CRE & SLE • Hydrodynamic modeling + Intensive salinity monitoring • Auto-regression + exogenous terms (inflow, rainfall, water level) • Freshwater inflow from RSM coupled to contributions from tidal basin,

rainfall, and tidal water level fluctuations

Cape Coral

Shell Point BSI

US1



ESTUARINE SALINITY PREDICTIONS • Multivariate salinity time series modeling for CRE & SLE • Hydrodynamic modeling + Intensive salinity monitoring • Auto-regression + exogenous terms (inflow, rainfall, water level) • Freshwater inflow from RSM coupled to contributions from tidal basin,

rainfall, and tidal water level fluctuations • Predict average daily salinity at multiple locations for 41 y (1965-2005) • CRE = Cape Coral and Shell Point; SLE = US1 and Boy Scout Island (SIRL)

Cape Coral

Shell Point BSI

US1

Monthly Average ECB Inflow (m3 d-1)0.0 5.0e+6 1.0e+7 1.5e+7 2.0e+7 2.5e+7 3.0e+7

Salin

ity a

t Cap

e C

oral

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Monthly Average ECB Inflow (m3 d-1)0.0 5.0e+6 1.0e+7 1.5e+7 2.0e+7 2.5e+7

Salin

ity a

t US1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35



ECOLOGICAL MODELS


ECOLOGICAL MODELS

S

TSS

(A) Oyster Habitat

FR

T FRmax

respiration mortalitybio-

deposition


ECOLOGICAL MODELS

S

TSS

(A) Oyster Habitat

FR

T FRmax

respiration mortalitybio-

deposition

I

color NTU CHL

(B) Seagrass Habitat

S G

respiration mortalitytrans-

location

T Pmax


ECOLOGICAL MODELS ([email protected])


Halodule blade specific rate

salinity (ppt)0 10 20 30 40

f(S)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Syringodium daily number of blades

salinity (ppt)0 10 20 30 40

f(S)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

BIOTIC SALINITY RELATIONSHIPS

Oyster response function

salinity (psu)0 10 20 30

f(S)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 aver

age

inflo

w (m

3 d-

1 )

0.0

3.0e+6

6.0e+6

9.0e+6

1.2e+7CEPP INFLOWS - CRE

ECBFWOALT4R


65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 aver

age

inflo

w (m

3 d-

1 )

0.0

3.0e+6

6.0e+6

9.0e+6

1.2e+7

Inflow ScenarioECB FWO ALT4R

m3 d

-1

0.0

3.0e+6

6.0e+6

9.0e+6

1.2e+7

CEPP INFLOWS - CRE

+10.0%

-12.0%

-5.0%

-14.4%

DryWet

ECBFWOALT4R


65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 aver

age

inflo

w (m

3 d-

1 )

0.0

2.0e+6

4.0e+6

6.0e+6

8.0e+6CEPP INFLOWS - SLE

ECBFWOALT4R


65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 aver

age

inflo

w (m

3 d-

1 )

0.0

2.0e+6

4.0e+6

6.0e+6

8.0e+6CEPP INFLOWS - SLE


m3 d

-1

0

2e+6

4e+6

6e+6

8e+6

DryWet

+1.1%

-14.2%

-10.2%

-23.9%

ECBFWOALT4R


CEPP SALINITY PREDICTIONS - CRE

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Ave

rage

Sal

inity

05

101520253035


salin

ity

05

101520253035

Cape Coral

-10.8% -2.0%

-4.3% -2.3%

DryWet

ECBFWOALT4R


CEPP SALINITY PREDICTIONS - CRE

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Ave

rage

Sal

inity

05

101520253035

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Ave

rage

Sal

inity

05

101520253035


salin

ity

05

101520253035


salin

ity

05

101520253035

Cape Coral

Shell Point

-10.8% -2.0%

-4.3% -2.3%

-5.1% +0.9%

-1.9% +2.5%

DryWet

ECBFWOALT4R


CEPP SALINITY PREDICTIONS - SLE

US1 Bridge

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Ave

rage

Sal

inity

05

101520253035


salin

ity

05

101520253035

-4.6% +11.3%

+1.6% +19.0%

DryWet

ECBFWOALT4R


CEPP SALINITY PREDICTIONS - SLE

US1 Bridge

Boy Scout Island

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Ave

rage

Sal

inity

05

101520253035

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Ave

rage

Sal

inity

05

101520253035


salin

ity

05

101520253035


salin

ity

05

101520253035

-4.6% +11.3%

+1.6% +19.0%

-0.5% +2.9% +1.0% +5.4%

DryWet

ECBFWOALT4R


65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

oyst

ers

m-2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

CEPP OYSTER MODEL RESULTS

Cape Coral


oyst

ers

m-2

0

400

800

1200

1600 DryWet

-3.8% +6.8%

+3.2% +11.7%


65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

oyst

ers

m-2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

oyst

ers

m-2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


Cape Coral

Shell Point

ECBFWOALT4R


oyst

ers

m-2

0

400

800

1200

1600


oyst

ers

m-2

0

400

800

1200

1600

DryWet

DryWet

-3.8% +6.8%

+3.2% +11.7%

+3.1% +4.7%

+3.5%

+5.0%


65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

oyst

ers

m-2

0

50

100

150

200

250

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

oyst

ers

m-2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

oyst

ers

m-2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


Cape Coral

Shell Point

US1 Bridge

ECBFWOALT4R


oyst

ers

m-2

0

400

800

1200

1600


oyst

ers

m-2

0

400

800

1200

1600


oyst

ers

m-2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

DryWet

DryWet

DryWet

-3.8% +6.8%

+3.2% +11.7%

+3.1% +4.7%

+3.5%

+5.0%

-3.9% +11.0%

+4.9%

+21.7%


CEPP SEAGRASS MODEL RESULTS

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

shoo

ts m

-2

0.050.0

100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0

ECBFWOALT4R

Shell Point Halodule


shoo

ts m

-2

050

100150200250300350

+7.3%

+6.8%

+15.5%

+15.5% DryWet


CEPP SEAGRASS MODEL RESULTS

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

shoo

ts m

-2

0.050.0

100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

shoo

ts m

-2

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

ECBFWOALT4R

Shell Point Halodule

Boy Scout Island Syringodium

ECBFWOALT4R


shoo

ts m

-2

0

200

400

600

800


shoo

ts m

-2

050

100150200250300350

+7.3%

+6.8%

+15.5%

+15.5%

+12.7% +14.3%

+19.0%

+21.0%

DryWet

DryWet


SUMMARY & SIGNIFICANCE


SUMMARY & SIGNIFICANCE • The Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP) is a first increment in

Everglades restoration designed to quantify the potential effectiveness of watershed engineering alternatives

• The CEPP relies upon an integrated modeling system which links watershed engineering projects to estuarine salinity predictions and estuarine habitats





• The effects of freshwater inflow diversions were greater for St. Lucie Estuary relative to the much larger Caloosahatchee River Estuary

• The densities of oysters and seagrass are greater in the wet season (May-Oct) vs. the dry season (Nov-Apr) in both estuaries





• The effects of freshwater inflow diversions were greater for St. Lucie Estuary relative to the much larger Caloosahatchee River Estuary

• The densities of oysters and seagrass are greater in the wet season (May-Oct) vs. the dry season (Nov-Apr) in both estuaries

• Oysters and seagrass densities increased under the ALT4R scenario

• The ALT4R scenario dampened extreme inflows to the estuaries in the wet

season thus creating freshwater availability for other parts of the Everglades and southern estuaries such as Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan and the Central Everglades Planning Project represent unique federal-state partnerships between the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) This study would not have been possible without the considerable efforts of the watershed modeling team of Walter Wilcox, Sandeep Dabral, and Raul Novoa at the SFWMD Gretchen Ehlinger and others at the USACE and the South Florida Ecosystem Task Force were essential in the development of the CEPP

the application of oyster and seagrass models to evaluate … presentations/jul… · south florida...

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