The 8-9 March 2008 Winter The 8-9 March 2008 Winter Storm in Upstate New York: Storm in Upstate New York:

An Example of a “Multi-An Example of a “Multi-Hazard” EventHazard” Event

Brian FrugisBrian Frugis

NOAA/NWS - Albany, NYNOAA/NWS - Albany, NY

NROW X November 5-6, 2008NROW X November 5-6, 2008

OutlineOutline

What is a “multi-hazard” storm?What is a “multi-hazard” storm? Has this been examined before?Has this been examined before? Synoptic overview of 8-9 March 2008Synoptic overview of 8-9 March 2008 Analysis of each hazardAnalysis of each hazard Conclusions and future researchConclusions and future research

Multi-hazard?Multi-hazard? A storm that features more than one type of A storm that features more than one type of

weather requiring two or more headlines across weather requiring two or more headlines across the County Warning Area (CWA)the County Warning Area (CWA)– Ex: Both Winter Storm Watches/Warnings AND Ex: Both Winter Storm Watches/Warnings AND

Flood Watches/WarningsFlood Watches/Warnings Somewhat common during the winter season here at ALY, Somewhat common during the winter season here at ALY,

especially during heavy mixed precipitation events especially during heavy mixed precipitation events commonly associated with inland low track eventscommonly associated with inland low track events

– Winter Storm Watch/Warnings AND Severe Winter Storm Watch/Warnings AND Severe Thunderstorm Watch/WarningsThunderstorm Watch/Warnings

Rare and unique eventsRare and unique events The 8-9 March 2008 event contained 4 hazards The 8-9 March 2008 event contained 4 hazards

across the CWA: flooding, snow/ice, wind AND across the CWA: flooding, snow/ice, wind AND severe thunderstormssevere thunderstorms

Past ResearchPast Research Most research has concentrated on just one hazardMost research has concentrated on just one hazard

– Either winter storms or warm season severe Either winter storms or warm season severe weather have been common research topics for weather have been common research topics for the ALY areathe ALY area

Keeter et. al (1995) found that there was a great Keeter et. al (1995) found that there was a great deal of variability in winter weather across the deal of variability in winter weather across the Carolinas and VirginiaCarolinas and Virginia– Winter precipitation, strong convective storms Winter precipitation, strong convective storms

and coastal flooding all occurredand coastal flooding all occurred– Due to topography, latitude, proximity to warm Due to topography, latitude, proximity to warm

waters of Gulf Stream, evolution of waters of Gulf Stream, evolution of cyclogenesis, cold air damming and cyclogenesis, cold air damming and frontogenesisfrontogenesis

Similar factors can likely be attributed to multi-hazard Similar factors can likely be attributed to multi-hazard winter storms across eastern New Yorkwinter storms across eastern New York

Cool Season Severe T-storms – Cool Season Severe T-storms – Previous ResearchPrevious Research

Goetsch (1988) found that “cold core” Goetsch (1988) found that “cold core” outbreaks frequently have a stacked low, a outbreaks frequently have a stacked low, a low level convergence feature, a well low level convergence feature, a well defined look on satellite imagery, and a defined look on satellite imagery, and a low level moisture axis protruding towards low level moisture axis protruding towards the surface low.the surface low.

van den Broeke (2005) has shown that van den Broeke (2005) has shown that that CG Lightning strikes are not that CG Lightning strikes are not necessarily needed for low-instability necessarily needed for low-instability convective lines that produces wind convective lines that produces wind damagedamage

Cool Season T-Storms Previous Cool Season T-Storms Previous Research in ALY AreaResearch in ALY Area

Wasula and LaPenta (2004) examined a cool Wasula and LaPenta (2004) examined a cool season severe case from 25 Nov 2004season severe case from 25 Nov 2004– Low CAPE, high shear environmentLow CAPE, high shear environment– Low topped convection developed into a line and Low topped convection developed into a line and

produced widespread wind damageproduced widespread wind damage Wasula et. al (2008) also examined the 16 Wasula et. al (2008) also examined the 16

February 2006 outbreak in upstate New YorkFebruary 2006 outbreak in upstate New York– Little instability ahead of cold frontal passageLittle instability ahead of cold frontal passage– Narrow cold frontal rainband contained damaging Narrow cold frontal rainband contained damaging

wind gustswind gusts– Region was in left front quad of strong mid and upper Region was in left front quad of strong mid and upper

level jet streaklevel jet streak

8-9 March 20088-9 March 2008 ““Most extreme multi-hazard case I’ve ever Most extreme multi-hazard case I’ve ever

seen in this area” – Steve D. – Senior Service seen in this area” – Steve D. – Senior Service HydrologistHydrologist

Storm ImpactsStorm Impacts– State of emergency due to ice storm in Warren Co.State of emergency due to ice storm in Warren Co.– Widespread 1.50-3.00 inches of rain/liquid Widespread 1.50-3.00 inches of rain/liquid

equivalent precipitation causing several main stem equivalent precipitation causing several main stem rivers to go above flood stage, as well as urban and rivers to go above flood stage, as well as urban and small stream floodingsmall stream flooding

– Wind gusts 40-50 MPH, mainly on backside of stormWind gusts 40-50 MPH, mainly on backside of storm– Several reports of trees down due to convective line Several reports of trees down due to convective line

across Litchfield and Berkshire Counties in western across Litchfield and Berkshire Counties in western New EnglandNew England

In addition, one severe thunderstorm warning polygon was issued, as well as several SPSs for near-severe convection.

Surface MSLP/IR Satellite 12 UTC 8 Mar Surface MSLP/IR Satellite 12 UTC 8 Mar 2008 – 12 UTC 9 Mar 20082008 – 12 UTC 9 Mar 2008

Strong surface low lifted northward from mid-Strong surface low lifted northward from mid-Atlantic into Northeast across the ALY CWAAtlantic into Northeast across the ALY CWA

500 hPa Heights and Wind500 hPa Heights and Wind 9 Mar 2008 00 9 Mar 2008 00

UTC NAM 00 hr UTC NAM 00 hr map (during the map (during the middle of the middle of the event)event)

120+ knot jet 120+ knot jet streak at 500 streak at 500 hPa centered hPa centered just south of the just south of the ALY CWA, ALY CWA, putting the putting the region in the left region in the left exit regionexit region

00 UTC 9 March 2008 ALY Sounding00 UTC 9 March 2008 ALY Sounding

Strong low-level Strong low-level wind field with wind field with impressive 0-1 impressive 0-1 km helicity km helicity valuesvalues

Cold air trapped Cold air trapped at surface under at surface under strong inversionstrong inversion

Very moist low Very moist low levelslevels

FloodingFlooding

Antecedent ConditionsAntecedent Conditions– February was a wet month (5-6” liquid February was a wet month (5-6” liquid

equivalent across the CWA) with heavy snow equivalent across the CWA) with heavy snow across higher terrainacross higher terrain

– Hard freeze at beginning of the month (Feb 28-Hard freeze at beginning of the month (Feb 28-Mar 2) resulted in very frozen ground Mar 2) resulted in very frozen ground conditionsconditions

– Entire region saw 1-3” of rain/liquid equivalent Entire region saw 1-3” of rain/liquid equivalent during 4-5 March Event (2.53” fell at KALB); during 4-5 March Event (2.53” fell at KALB); some flooding occurred across SE parts of CWAsome flooding occurred across SE parts of CWA

– Temperatures from March 3-7Temperatures from March 3-7thth were mild; high were mild; high temps averaged in the 40stemps averaged in the 40s

00 UTC 9 Mar 2008 1000 hPa – 850 hPa Moisture 00 UTC 9 Mar 2008 1000 hPa – 850 hPa Moisture

Transport Vectors and Layer Precipitable WaterTransport Vectors and Layer Precipitable Water High High

Precipitable Precipitable Water values Water values for Marchfor March– Values across Values across

eastern New eastern New England are England are 3-4 std above 3-4 std above normal (not normal (not shown)shown)

Moisture Moisture transported transported from Gulf of from Gulf of Mexico and Mexico and tropical tropical Atlantic Atlantic regionsregions

0.50.5°° Mosaic Radar Reflectivity 2212 UTC Mosaic Radar Reflectivity 2212 UTC 7 Mar 2008 – 0430 UTC 8 Mar 20087 Mar 2008 – 0430 UTC 8 Mar 2008

Three rounds of Three rounds of precipitationprecipitation– First round was First round was

overnight overnight between Mar between Mar 77thth and Mar 8 and Mar 8thth

– Rain across Rain across much of the much of the region with region with light snow/sleet light snow/sleet in the in the AdirondacksAdirondacks

0.50.5°° Mosaic Radar Reflectivity 1706 Mosaic Radar Reflectivity 1706 UTC 8 Mar 2008 – 2200 UTC 9 UTC 8 Mar 2008 – 2200 UTC 9

Mar 2008Mar 2008 Second Second

round was round was late morning late morning through through afternoon on afternoon on Mar 8Mar 8thth

– Sleet and Sleet and freezing rain freezing rain across the across the Adirondacks, Adirondacks, but mainly but mainly rain rain elsewhereelsewhere

Multisensor Precipitation EstimationMultisensor Precipitation Estimation

Total precipitation between 1200 UTC 7 Mar 2008 and 1200 UTC 8 Mar 2008

Total precipitation between 1200 UTC 8 Mar 2008 and 1200 UTC 9 Mar 2008

County-Wide Flood Warnings 8-9 Mar 2008County-Wide Flood Warnings 8-9 Mar 2008

In addition to In addition to the county-the county-wide warnings, wide warnings, river flood river flood warnings were warnings were issued for 19 issued for 19 points along 12 points along 12 different riversdifferent rivers– 7 of these 7 of these

points reached points reached moderate flood moderate flood stagestage

Data Source: NCDC

(Slide Courtesy of Tom Wasula)

Severe T-StormsSevere T-Storms

00 UTC 9 Mar 2008 850 hPa – 500 00 UTC 9 Mar 2008 850 hPa – 500 hPa Most Unstable CapehPa Most Unstable Cape

NAM initial 00 NAM initial 00 hr maphr map

Elevated layer Elevated layer of unstable airof unstable air

MUCAPE values MUCAPE values 100-300 J/kg 100-300 J/kg across southern across southern parts of the parts of the CWACWA

Low CAPE, high Low CAPE, high shear shear environment, environment, (similar to cases (similar to cases studied by studied by Wasula)Wasula)

00 UTC 9 Mar 2008 0.500 UTC 9 Mar 2008 0.5°° Mosaic Radar Mosaic Radar Reflectivity and Station ObservationsReflectivity and Station Observations

Weak line of Weak line of elevated elevated convection convection approaching approaching dewpoints of dewpoints of 10-14° C 10-14° C across Taconic across Taconic Mountains Mountains and Litchfield and Litchfield CTCT

0.50.5°° Mosaic Radar Reflectivity 2348 UTC 8 Mosaic Radar Reflectivity 2348 UTC 8

Mar 2008 – 0148 UTC 9 Mar 2008Mar 2008 – 0148 UTC 9 Mar 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Polygon and Severe Thunderstorm Polygon and Locations of Storm ReportsLocations of Storm Reports

Several storms Several storms reports of wind reports of wind damage across damage across Berkshire County, Berkshire County, MA and northern MA and northern Litchfield County, Litchfield County, CTCT

Non-severe hail Non-severe hail (0.50” in diameter) (0.50” in diameter) in Schoharie in Schoharie County, NYCounty, NY

Image courtesy of IEM Storm Cow Webpage

925 hPa Aegostropic Wind and 23 UTC 925 hPa Aegostropic Wind and 23 UTC 8 Mar 2008 Surface Temperatures8 Mar 2008 Surface Temperatures

00 UTC 9 Mar 00 UTC 9 Mar NAM 00 hr NAM 00 hr mapmap

Strong Strong ageostrophic ageostrophic flow kept cold flow kept cold air in place at air in place at low levels low levels across the across the AdirondacksAdirondacks

00 UTC 9 Mar 2008 RUC Sounding 00 UTC 9 Mar 2008 RUC Sounding

Sounding for Gore Sounding for Gore Mountain in Warren Mountain in Warren Co.Co.

Surface layer just Surface layer just below freezingbelow freezing

Very moist up to Very moist up to 700 hPa700 hPa

No ice in cloud (all No ice in cloud (all below -10°C) below -10°C) allowed for allowed for precipitation to fall precipitation to fall entirely as freezing entirely as freezing rainrain

8-9 Mar 2008 Ice Storm Pictures8-9 Mar 2008 Ice Storm Pictures Heavy ice accretion Heavy ice accretion

across eastern across eastern Hamilton and Hamilton and northern Warren northern Warren CountiesCounties

No official No official measurements, but measurements, but pictures show at least pictures show at least two inches of ice two inches of ice accretionaccretion– Some ice may have been from Some ice may have been from

storm earlier in the weekstorm earlier in the week

3 hr Pressure Change 21 UTC 8 Mar 2008 - 3 hr Pressure Change 21 UTC 8 Mar 2008 - 08 UTC 9 Mar 200808 UTC 9 Mar 2008

Frequent gusts 30-45 mph driven by strong low Frequent gusts 30-45 mph driven by strong low center and powerful rise-fall coupletcenter and powerful rise-fall couplet

ConclusionsConclusions

““Multi-hazard” storms can be a Multi-hazard” storms can be a difficult situationdifficult situation– Damaging cool season convection is Damaging cool season convection is

hard to predict in advancehard to predict in advance– Public may be confused by multiple Public may be confused by multiple

headlines in placeheadlines in place– Operationally handling a storm of this Operationally handling a storm of this

magnitude can be overwhelming at magnitude can be overwhelming at timestimes

Future ResearchFuture Research Create a “multi-hazard climatology”Create a “multi-hazard climatology”

– See which parameters are common with See which parameters are common with “multi-hazard” storms featuring severe “multi-hazard” storms featuring severe thunderstormsthunderstorms

Create a “checklist” for office useCreate a “checklist” for office use– Help predict when “multi-hazard” storms are Help predict when “multi-hazard” storms are

likely to occur to help with office staffinglikely to occur to help with office staffing– Based on this one case, may depend much on Based on this one case, may depend much on

low track and intensity, low-level jet structure, low track and intensity, low-level jet structure, antecedent ground conditions and boundary antecedent ground conditions and boundary layer temperature/moisture profile.layer temperature/moisture profile.

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

Many thanks to Joe Many thanks to Joe Villani, Tom Villani, Tom Wasula, Neil Stuart Wasula, Neil Stuart and Steve DiRienzo and Steve DiRienzo for their help with for their help with this study!this study!

Questions?Questions?

Any questions or comments?Any questions or comments?

Brian.Frugis@noaa.govBrian.Frugis@noaa.gov