COALITION INTROUBLE

THE 36 SEATS THAT WILL DECIDE THE ELECTION

BARTONHeld by:NickolasVarvaris (Lib)Margin: -4.4% (notionally Labor after redistribution)Sydney seat south of the CBD that the Liberals unexpectedly won by just 489 votes in 2013, with a strong 7.2% swing, double the national swing. Redistribution has turned the seat, held by Labor for the previous 30 years, back to Labor-leaning.DOBELLHeld by: Karen McNamara (Lib)

Margin: -0.2% (notionally Labor after redistribution)Central coast seat the Liberals picked up from dumped Labor MP Craig Thomson in 2013. Was marginal Liberal but tipped to be marginal Labor after redistribution

PATERSONHeld by: Bob Baldwin(Lib, retiring)Margin: 0.4%,(notionally to Labor)The redistribution radically changed this mid-north coast seat from safe Liberal – Baldwin won by 9.8% in 2013 – to marginally Labor. The retirement of Baldwin will

add to the Liberals’ complications of keeping a sitting member in this seat.

PETRIEHeld by:Luke Howarth (LNP)Margin: 0.5%The eastern Brisbane seat has followed the government of the day since 1987. Howarth fell over the line by just 871 votes, with the help of Palmer United Party preferences.CAPRICORNIAHeld by:Michelle Landry (LNP)Margin: 0.8%The coalmining seat stretching inland from Rockhampton fell out of Labor hands for the first time in 15 years at the 2013 election – but only just, leaving a tough task toretain it.BONNERHeld by: Ross Vasta (LNP)Margin: 3.7%The eastern Brisbane seat,

covering the city’s port and neighbouring Kevin Rudd’s former electorate, was picked up by the LNP in 2010, following the dumping of the then prime minister shortly before the election.BRISBANEHeld by: Teresa Gambaro (LNP, retiring)Margin: 4.3%Another seat Julia Gillard’s government lost right after ousting Rudd. Had been in Labor hands for the previous 30 years. The retirement of well-known member Gambaro will hurt the Coalition.

DUNKLEYHeld by: BruceBillson (Lib, retiring)Margin: 5.6%The retiring Billson, who was dumped from cabinet after Malcolm Turnbull ousted Tony Abbott, will throw a complicating factor into the Liberals’ bid to retain this

southeastern Melbourne seat, held by Billson since 1996.

HINDMARSHHeld by:Matt Williams (Lib)Margin: 1.8%The ‘submarine’ seat. The only marginal seat in the state that the Coalition is defending. Won by Williams in 2013 with a swing of 8%, more than double the national swing.

LYONSHeld by: EricHutchinson(Lib)Margin: 1.2%Arguably the moststunning result of the2013 election.Hutchinson secured the biggest swing of the election, 13.5%, to snatch a seat that had been in Labor hands for 20 years.

SOLOMONHeld by:NatashaGriggs (CLP)Margin: 1.4%The Darwin-based seat has been in the Country Liberals’ hands for all but three years since it was established in 2001. Griggs won it in 2010 but saw her margin become even more marginal with a small swing against her in 2013.

BANKSHeld by: DavidColeman (Lib)Margin: 2.8%Southern Sydney seat the Liberals won in 2013 for the first time since its establishment in 1949. Redistribution improved the

Liberals’ margin from 1.8% to 2.8%EDEN-MONAROHeld by: Peter Hendy (Lib)Margin: 2.9%The bellwether southern NSW seat, stretching from the ACT border to the Victorian border. Held by the government of the day since 1972. Narrowly won in 2013. The redistribution has helped the Liberals, increasing its margin from 0.6% to 2.9%.LINDSAYHeld: by Fiona Scott (Lib)Margin: 3%Another seat that has followed the government of the day every time since its establishment in 1984. The outer-western Sydney seat is held by Scott, who Tony Abbott infamously praisedfor her ‘sex appeal’.PAGEHeld by: Kevin Hogan (Nats)Margin: 3.1%The northern NSW seat, stretching from Coffs Harbour on the coast inland to the Queensland border, was one

of three seats picked up by the Nationals in 2013 (the other two were from independents).

ROBERTSONHeld by: Lucy Wicks (Lib)Margin: 3.1%The third NSW bellwether seat, which has followedthe government of the day since 1983.MACARTHURHeld by: Russell Matheson (Lib)Margin: 3.3%Matheson has held this largely rural seat on Sydney’s southwest fringe since 2010 when he took over from Liberal ultra-marathon runner Pat Farmer. The redistribution crunched his margin from 11.4% to 3.3%. Matheson contemplated a move to neighbouringHume, held by Angus Taylor,before deciding to fighton in this seat.REIDHeld by: Craig Laundy (Lib)Margin: 3.4%

Like Banks, this seat in Sydney’s western heart fell to the Liberals for the first time in 2013, as changing demographics turn once working-class suburbs from Drummoyne to Strathfield into higher-wealth areas.GILMOREHeld by: Ann Sudmalis (Lib)Margin: 3.8%The south coast seat has seen a steady erosion in the Liberal vote over the past three elections, even in 2013 when Tony Abbott’s Coalition won power, reducing the seat to marginal status.NEW ENGLANDHeld by: Barnaby Joyce (Nats)Margin: 20.7%(against Labor)The now Nationals leader comfortably won the seat from independent Rob Taber with a 15.3% margin after it was vacated by sitting member Tony Windsor in 2013. After ducking the Joyce challenge three years ago, Windsor is back to try to reclaim the seat.

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NSW

BATTLEGROUNDSEATS

DEAKINHeld by: MichaelSukkar (Lib)Margin: 3.2%The seat on Melbourne’seastern fringe has followed the government of the day since1996.CORANGAMITEHeld by: Sarah Henderson (Lib)Margin: 3.9%Labor’s most marginal seat going into the 2013 election was always expected to fall, particularly as the Liberals ran a well-knowncandidate in former broadcast journalist Henderson, who faces a battle to keep her seat.

LA TROBEHeld by: Jason Wood (Lib)Margin: 4%Like nearby Deakin, a Liberalgain in 2013. One of the more volatile Victorian seats, whichoften bucks the trend of theoverall election result.

FORDEHeld by: Bertvan Manen (LNP)Margin: 4.4%One of the most-watched seats in 2013 after Labor signed up former premier Peter Beattie to try to win back the seat it lost in 2010. The move failed, with van Manen shoring up his margin with a swing of 2.8%. Labor won this seat in 2007 with the biggest swing of that election, 14.4%.FLYNNHeld by: Ken O’Dowd (LNP)Margin: 6.5%The southern Queensland seat, established in 2007, was among the swag of Queensland seats the Gillard government lost in 2010. O’Dowd stretched his margin beyond “marginal” status at the last election.HERBERTHeld by: Ewen Jones (LNP)Margin: 6.2%The Townsville-based seat – home

to many of the workers at Clive Palmer’s Queensland Nickel refinery, which has gone into administration – has been in Coalition hands since 1996 and is a chance of switching back to Labor.DAWSONHeld by: George Christensen (LNP)Margin: 7.6%The central Queensland coastal seat, which covers the Whitsundays, also fell following Kevin Rudd’s axing as prime minister. Christensen won a swing of more than 5% in 2013, moving the seat beyond “marginal” status. A seat that can deliver big swings, having recorded a 13.2% swing to Labor in the 2007 Rudd-slide.

COWANHeld by: LukeSimpkins (Lib)Margin: 4.5%The seat on Perth’s eastern fringeis the Coalition’s most marginal in WA after a redistribution. Simpkins won the seat by 7.5% in 2013but has been reduced to 4.5%.

HASLUCKHeld by: Ken Wyatt (Lib)Margin: 6%The semi-rural seat east ofPerth was established in 2001and changed hands at eachof the following three elections. Wyatt’s winning margin in 2013of 4.9% has been stretched out by the redistribution.

MAYOHeld by: JamieBriggs (Lib)Margin: 12.5%The seat has been held byonly two members since itscreation in 1984: formerLiberal leader and foreignminister Alexander Downerand Jamie Briggs, the former minister dumped late lastyear over his behaviour ina Hong Kong bar. The X factorof Nick Xenophon’s pushto get lower-house candidates elected under his bannerthrows this seat into the mix.

BRADDONHeld by: BrettWhiteley (Lib)Margin: 2.6%A volatile electorate that has changed hands five times since1983, more than the governmenthas changed hands. Secured by Whiteley with a 10% swing.BASSHeld by: Andrew Nikolic (Lib)Margin: 4%The nation’s most volatileelectorate, changing handssix times since 1993. The thirdbig swinging Tasmanianelectorate, falling to Nikolic with a 10.8% swing.

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LIBERAL HOPES

FAIRFAXHeld by:Clive Palmer(PUP, retiring)Margin: 0.03% (against LNP)The Sunshine Coast seat had been a conservative seat since its inception in 1984 until Palmer’s stunning political entry in 2013. The demise of his business interests and court cases have hit his profile and he has pulled the pin on seeking re-election in the lower house.

INDIHeld by: CathyMcGowan (Ind)

Margin: 0.3% (over Lib)McGowan’s boilover victory against sitting Liberal Sophie Mirabella was one of the stories of the 2013 election. Mirabella is back to try to regain the seat in Victoria’s northeast and restart her political career.CHISHOLMHeld by: Anna Burke(ALP, retiring)Margin: 1.6%The retirement of the former speaker of the lower house has given the Liberal Party hope of snatching this eastern Melbourne seat that Burke has held since 1998.BRUCEHeld by: Alan Griffin (ALP, retiring)Margin: 1.8%As in Burke’s seat,the departure of apopular member inGriffin provides hopefor the Liberals to claim this southeastern Melbourne seat for the first time since 1996.