the 2nd space revolution

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“We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters. ”

Peter Thiel’s quote might have inspired A3, the recently founded Airbus innovation outpost in the Silicon Valley, to work on autonomous flying taxis.

Despite Thiel’s pessimism, the new economy has never been this close to literal moonshots.

We were curious to see how new economy natives born and bred during the Apollo era would dare to enter one of the most technical fields. It is still ROCKET SCIENCE!

Some, like Google, will partner with existing aerospace actors to connect the next billion. Others, like SpaceX and Blue Origin, will compete head-on with existing actors to grant cheap and reliable access to space.

Stéphane Distinguin CEO of FABERNOVEL

New economy x space: close encounters of a new kind

From these encounters, only two things remain certain. First, newcomers are kickstarting a new era in space services and applications. Second, their ambitions are not limited to the vicinity of the Earth and go well beyond.

Whether you want to understand how they do it, to think deeply about the next generation of space services, or to get your ticket to Mars, we wanted to give you a Hitchhiker’s Guide to space.

Don’t forget your towel!

1962 2016

You thought Space was just a dead-end after the Apollo program?

A few wealthy entrepreneurs might disagree with you…

Saturn V (the launcher used for the Apollo program in the 60s) is still in 2016 the biggest rocket ever used!

The space shuttle is still the only launcher to be reusable, at a cost of $860M per launch!

" My guess is 30 years from now… if enough spaceships will be built, enormous quantities of people will have a chance to go to space."

Richard Branson Founder & CEO of Virgin Galactic Net worth: $5 billion

Space will be a tourist destination like any other

" I'm using my resources to put in place heavy-lifting infrastructure so the next generation of people can have a dynamic, entrepreneurial explosion into space."

Jeff Bezos Founder & CEO of Blue Origin Net worth: $66.9 billion

Space will be the next playground for startups and heavy industries

"Either we spread earth to other planets, or we risk going extinct. "

Elon Musk Founder & CEO of SpaceX Net worth: $11.7 billion

Space will be mankind’s Noah’s Ark

New players on the launchpad

I

Not all are funded and there are development risks. Some of them might never fly as a launch failure can be a synonym for bankruptcy.

At least 17 small launchers (low orbit & payload <500kg) are currently under development!

Just like in Silicon Valley, a lot of ventures launch but only a few of them will reach new heights...

But don’t bury them too soon! After filing for bankruptcy in 1999 with a debt of $4.4B, Iridium successfully pivoted thanks to M2M subscribers and reached $411M revenues in 2015.

For more information about these launchers, just have a look on the amazing article by The Washington Post here : https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/rockets/

Being able to land a rocket first stage (Falcon 9) after a commercial launch now sounds usual for SpaceX when their first successful attempt only took place on April, 8th 2016 (5 landed)

Blue Origin’s motto is “Gradatim

Ferociter“ (step by step, ferociously!) Blue Origin has been able to reach the

lower limit of space (100km) with the same “New Shepard” first stage

multiples times.

…thus, the achievements from the most famous of them are even more impressive!

$2.9 billion in venture capital invested in space startups between 2000 and 2015: $1.8 billion in 2015 alone Terra Bella (former Skybox Imaging, Earth observation solutions) was bought by Alphabet in 2014 for $500M after raising $91M. Planets (nano-satellites for Earth observation) has raised $158M.

More venture capital was invested in 2015 than during the 15 years prior!

With these newcomers come huge private investments…

Spire has raised $65M (space based data for global businesses). Planetary Resources (extraterrestrial mining) raised $22.5M.

Concentration Disaggregation

Military surveillance makes up 36% of the value launched in space while only representing 6% of the number of satellites.

… because, despite the low intrinsic value of the product launched by these newcomers compared to space incumbents…

49% of the total number of satellites launched in 2015 are Cubesats (< 10kg) but they represent less than 1% of the value.

VS

Arianespace allowed 17 new countries or groups of countries to own a telecommunication satellite between 1984 and 2012.

Private companies and universities are the prevalent users of nanosats in a “maker” spirit (40% each). Including Cubesats, a total of 437 nanosatellites (<10kg) are planned for launch in 2016.

Developing countries might be the next playground for these low-cost satellites to : - Bypass restricted access to technologies

- Limit initial investment

- Help with landscape management (urban expansion, resource prospection, agriculture support…)

Yesterday Today Tomorrow

… it is all about new uses cases and customers

A service based on cloud observation from space can help them decide when to open their terrace.

In addition to satellite positioning solution to track their cattle, they have a service that allows them to decide where to make the flock graze.

A service counting cars in a parking lot can help quantify shop frequentation at various moments of the day.

Restaurant-terrace owners

Gauchos in the pampa

Business int. analysts

These are only a few examples of services that could be created thanks to Earth Observation data. The new space is all about tinkering space assets to allow new customers to create value for their core business directly from them !

Soon, space services will really be accessible to everyone !

"We must still think of ourselves as

pioneers to understand the

importance of space."

Buzz Aldrin

Astronaut 2nd person to walk on the Moon

Architect of Cycling Pathways to Mars

Even experts champion these new dynamics in the space sector

Anatomy of a revolution

II

The Outer Space Treaty, signed in 1967, gave a first definition on what’s allowed in space: “A state is responsible for everything that was put in orbit from its ground.”

Space access is an enabling capability for military intelligence. Thus, exporting hardware between countries is regulated under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).

Spacefaring nations delegate to their space agencies the interpretation, awareness, and (on a smaller scale) enforcement of these treaties.

Born during the Cold War, space incumbents are used to playing with a heavy set of rules

Satellite constellation

Reusable launchers

Teledesic, backed by Microsoft, tried to set up a constellation of 850 low orbit satellites after 1994.

But it didn’t work Project strategy changes (reduction of the number of satellites to 288, higher altitude, and more complex satellites) and the burst of the dot-com bubble at the end of the 90s put a halt to the project.

5 semi reusable space shuttles were built and used on 135 missions between 1985 and 2011. But it didn’t work Two of them were lost in 1986 (Challenger) and in 2003 (Columbia), killing a total of 14 astronauts. With a final cost of $860M per launch instead of the planned $7M, space shuttles never found a sustainable business case.

Not the first time we’ve heard about a space revolution...

The Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program gives financial incentives to actors willing to respect a timeframe to carry cargo to the International Space Station.

Nanoracks signed a partnership with the NASA to solve and hasten documentation and logistic issues for those willing to do experiments on the ISS. They are also able to send nano-satellites directly from the ISS.

The international ActinSpace competition organised by the CNES (French spatial agency) allows student teams to work on 70 challenges designed to encourage tinkering around existing space patents and startup creation.

Incentives to private actors are created

Access to space research facilities gets easier

Maker spirit lurks around Intellectual Property

… but it has never been that easy to access space assets

NASA’s budget dropped from about 4.5% of the federal budget in the 1960s to about 0.5% of the federal budget today.

Arianespace became the commercial geosynchronous satellite launcher market leader less than 10 years after its creation (around ~50% during the last 20 years).

The sale of the CNES’ 34.7% shares in Arianespace to Airbus Safran Launchers in the end of 2016 opens a new era for European commercial launches.

Space agencies’ budgets shrink steadily, …

…commercial structures are incubated...

… upon being excubated.

Space agencies are becoming advisers...

Decreasing entry costs encourages newcomers to get ready for the next gold rush

… and national laws are multiplying

Since 2005, all manufacturing costs associated with Cubesats, which represent a large majority of nanosatellites, are estimated to be under $100M.

The SPACE Act of 2015 allows US citizens to engage in commercial exploitation of space resources.

Even Luxembourg, a state with no space assets, wrote an act to grant ownership of resources harvested in near space objects.

… in a more and more competitive and open space sector

Traditional space actors Space newcomers

Access to space is expensive and not resilient which prevents manufacturers to reach economy of scales. A low number of expensive, tailor-made, sophisticated, long lifespan space assets ordered by institutional actors averse to risk.

Risks are spread on constellation using off the shelf components with lower lifespan to make the offer more flexible and cheaper. Constellations of smaller satellites with short lifespans, adapted reliability, up-to-date & low cost technologies ordered by private companies that sell services not satellites.

Two opposite economic models reveal two visions of the space industry

Launcher and soon to be constellation manufacturer

Launcher and technology provider.

Constellation manufacturer and service provider.

SpaceX shares Tesla’s practices

Blue Origin fails fast by testing early

Planet creates agile aerospace

The start-up mindset to face high risk / high reward project by testing fast is these newcomers’ common trademark

Use automotive industry best practices to reach economies of scale.

The current generation is a playground to test technologies for the next generation (and current costomers finance a part of it).

SpaceX shares Tesla’s practices

Gain extensive knowledge of the product limitations in real conditions with an incremental process (hardware A/B testing).

Develop missing know-how to push further the limitation with custom-made design (cryogenic turbopumps)

Blue Origin fails fast by testing early

Launch early, launch fast:low lifespan allows them to have up-to-date technology (12 full satellite iterations in 3 years).

Automate processes to allow growth or scalability (to operate a constellation or to analyze data).

Planet creates agile aerospace

Is Planet kickstarting the template for future space infrastructures?

“Find me the single best person on the freaking planet, then convince me why out of how many billion people on the planet that this is that guy” E. Musk’s brief to his head of talent also applies to every support role.

Being the world dreamers-in-chief, E. Musk (SpaceX) and J. Bezos (Blue Origin) attract the world's best employees.

These newcomers always launch with the A-team

Doing things that matter encourages top-notch engineers to regularly work between 80-100 hours per week. Leading by example, Bezos and Musk make sure they are perfectly aware of space subjects and call out assumptions.

A component can be produced in a few hours to be tested and manipulated

Honeycomb-like structures only possible with additive manufacturing can create lighter and stronger products

A digital design file and some raw materials are enough to replace a part even when the usual production center is overseas

Do fast prototyping

Validate new industrial processes

Be more reactive to unpredictable situations

Newcomers are more than ready to “hack“ other technologies like additive manufacturing…

Physical items are associated with a digital counterpart that carries production data. Machines can interact with this data to adapt the prodution process. Thus, a single line can produce multiple customized items with limited human decision.

By monitoring equipments, they can detect faulty patterns before they occur and take preventive actions.

Machines adapt to human behavior and gestures to reduce errors and allow workers to focus on value-added tasks (automatization of quality processes) (Google’s Tango Project on NASA’s sphere)

Self-organizing processes

Predictive maintenance

Coworking robots (cobots)

… to create a resilient and responsive datacentric environment to fit their ambitious goals

Creating a B2B or B2C space service will become as easy as creating a smartphone application.

Orbital infrastructures will be adapted to other industries needs like microgravity research.

As this in-depth transformation progressively impacts every layer of the space sector, more and more people will be able to enter the space sector.

Today’s classical Science Fiction literature projects might become closer than what one could think…

As insiders, they lower the threshold for the incoming generation of space applications

The infrastructure these newcomers are creating is only the tip of the iceberg

Next stop: Mars City

III

Source: SpaceX ITS announcement

Between institutional contracts to deliver the ISS and commercial launches, they have around $10B in their launch manifest.

They were able to land so many multiple launchers that it has become a non-event. In August 2016, they announced that they will use a “proven flight” (reused) to launch a geostationary payload (SES) by the end of the year.

They aim to launch more than 4,000 satellites in 5 years after 2017 for $3B!

Heavy funds secured

Head start on reusable launchers

Constellation builder

SpaceX is kickstarting a major change in the way space is perceived and is building the cornerstone of future space applications…

They have to finance, design and produce 2 other launchers

They have to prove their ability to reach Mars

Falcon Heavy A first step to carry really heavy payloads (>50 tons in low orbit, >20tons in geosynchronous orbit) Mars Colonial Transporter The dragon capsule won’t be enough to sail between two planets for 6 to 8 months. The estimated mass ratio between man and cargo for this kind of flight is 1 to 6. The spaceship will need to be carried into space.

They have access to some of the most brilliant minds but they have never performed an extraterrestrial flight. The landing of a non-inhabited Red Dragon Capsule expected in 2018 will give a good glance of their ability.

… but they have considerable technical hurdles to pass before being able to create a Mars City from scratch

Source: SpaceX ITS announcement

SpaceX isn’t a civil engineering expert.

SpaceX isn’t a food or meal production expert.

SpaceX isn’t a commodity supplier expert.

Passengers will need safe housing

Passengers will need food

Passengers will need smart utilities

SpaceX will probably be a few billion short to develop all the mandatory knowledge to create a self-sustaining Martian base

Adapt drones and robots to make them 3D print buildings, map or monitor areas, detect points of interest, etc., without putting the first martian settlers in danger.

With non-practical spacesuits and a lethal environment, how can they limit human implication in construction works?

Un wall-e?

CASE


Design resilient and responsive smartgrid solutions.

Make climate control (with pressure, etc.) as easy to use as a Nest.

In a growing base, how can they automatically spread critical resources between multiple areas?

CASE


Identify most promising farming methods: hydroponic cultivation, insect or fish farms, etc.

Design tools to automate farming: robots, connected sensors, etc.

How will they adapt existing food production methods to a space constraint environment?

CASE


Quantify self indicators to assess physiological needs.

Adapt recipes to the needs and preferences.

Automate recipe production from available resources.

How will they create meals that suit both physiological and psychological needs?

CASE


Rethink production processes to reduce the weight of waste: delete tertiary packaging, etc.

Limit wasted production

Low water consuming crops or with small stems

Low consuming flush, etc

When supplies are rare, how can theyfavor low-consumption processes?

CASE


Ensure that tools and materials are repairable and can evolve with needs.

Ensure tools can be used for multiple activities.

How can they make the most of rare resources?

CASE


Neil deGrasse Tyson Astrophysician

[Without space technologies we would be] in a state of untenable technological poverty, bad eyesight to boot, while getting rained on without an umbrella because of not knowing the satellite-informed weather forecast for that day.

Benefits derived from space research are HUGE

Freeze dried meals Solar panels

Water filters Embedded defibrillators

No one would want to miss the next global navigation satellite system (the GPS)! By working on these topics, you gain early access to a new set of IPs!

Who could have predicted 60 years ago that the space conquest would be so life-changing?

"Provide ship or sails adapted to the heavenly breezes, and there will be some who will not fear even that void [of space]… So, for those who will come shortly to attempt this journey, let us establish the astronomy"

Johannes Kepler letter to Galileo Galilei 'Conversation with the Messenger from the Stars,' 19 April 1610

What would you do in space?

51

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A new world needs new solutions

Who we are

We are a “digital native” organization of a new type, nourished by a unique culture and incomparable talents. We gather wide and cutting-edge capabilities –in strategy, software, design and data marketing – boosting our clients’ competitiveness.

Our offices

From our offices in San Francisco, Paris, Toulouse and Lisbon, we work with clients everywhere in the world to help them define and develop new opportunities.

What we do

We transform feared disruptions into business opportunities. We craft impactful user experiences that benefit our clients and their customers. We build agile prototypes to test and develop strong strategic assets. And we play a prominent role with a sustainable impact, in the best ecosystems. At startup speed.

@FABERNOVEL facebook.com/FABERNOVEL FABERNOVEL.com

We are

54

Stéphane DISTINGUIN Founder & CEO FABERNOVEL [email protected]

Cyril VART Executive VP FABERNOVEL [email protected]

Leila TURNER CEO FABERNOVEL INNOVATE [email protected]

Dominique PIOTET CEO FABERNOVEL US & PARISOMA [email protected]

Baptiste BENEZET CEO Applidium by FABERNOVEL [email protected]

Alexis Godais CEO FABERNOVEL CODE [email protected]

Kevin GENTIL-CANTIN Co-founder & CEO FABERNOVEL DATA & MEDIA [email protected]

Yassine BELFKIH Co-founder & CEO FABERNOVEL DATA & MEDIA [email protected]

Antonin TORIKIAN CEO FABERNOVEL Institute [email protected]

A full stack and digital native company to identify levers for competitiveness

Nuno RIBEIRO Portugal Country Manager FABERNOVEL [email protected]

55

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Design -

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Research -

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Credits

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the 2nd space revolution

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