the 2019 full year collectors and investors single malt … · 2020-05-01 · the number of...

INVESTMENT GROWTH RETURNS TO THE RARE WHISKY MARKET.

THE 2019 FULL YEAR COLLECTORS AND INVESTORS SINGLE MALT SCOTCH REVIEW.

RARE WHISKY 101

CONTENTS 3 Executive Summary Full Year 2019

9 Supply and Demand

12 Investment Comparison

16 Market Share by Volume – Top 10 Distilleries League Table

20 Market Share by Value – Top 10 Distilleries League Table

23 Rare Whisky Collectors Ranking – League Table

25 Rare Whisky Investors Ranking – League Table

27 Grain in Granularity

35 Crystal Ball Gazing – What Next?

2RW101 | FULL YEAR REVIEW 2019

FULL YEAR 2019

Executive SUMMARY


POUND FOR POUND, MACALLAN NOW ACCOUNTS FOR ALMOST 40% OF MARKET.

SPRINGBANK RETAINED ITS HALF YEAR NUMBER ONE POSITION IN THE INVESTOR RANKINGS, CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY SILENT DISTILLERIES ROSEBANK AND BRORA.


£0

£60,000,000

£10,000,000

£40,000,000

£30,000,000

£70,000,000

VALUE £

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

£50,000,000

0

40,000

120,000

80,000

160,000

VOLUME

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

20,000

60,000

100,000

140,000

£20,000,000

58

,75

8

83

,713

107,

89

0

143

,89

5

£9

,56

2,4

05

£14

,211

,76

7

£2

5,0

60

,05

8

£4

0,7

72

,55

0

£5

7,7

07,

70

7

43

,45

8

The number of recorded bottles of Single Malt Scotch Whisky sold at auction in the UK in FY 2019 increased by 33.37% to 143,895 (107,890 were sold in FY 2018).

VOLUME AND VALUE ANALYSIS

The recorded £ value of collectable bottles of Single Malt Scotch Whisky sold at auction in the UK in FY 2019 rose by 41.54% to a record high of £57,707,707 (FY 2018 value was £40,772,550).


£0

£200.00

£350.00

£100.00

£450.00

AVERAGE £ PER BOTTLE

2015 2016 2017 2018 20190.00%

5.00%

45.00%

APEX 1000 INDEX

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

£50.00

£150.00

£250.00

£300.00

£400.00 40.00%

£2

20

.04

£2

41.

87 £

29

9.3

6

£3

77.

91

£4

01.

04

14.3

6%

38

.37

%

27.

51%

30

.01%

7.17

%

AVERAGE BOTTLE VALUE

The average per-bottle price increased by 6.12%, from £377.91 in 2018 to £401.04 in 2019.

From a small mid-year loss of 0.26%, the broadest measurement of the market, the Apex 1000 Index, returned to growth in the second half of the year, finishing up 7.17%.


THE TOP TEN DISTILLERIES SOUGHT AFTER BY INVESTORS ARE:

SPRINGBANK

ROSEBANK

BRORA

BEN WYVIS

KILLYLOCH

DALMORE

BOWMORE

GLENUGIE

LOCHSIDE

PORT ELLEN

THE TOP TEN INVESTORS DISTILLERIES


Despite impressive market share results, from an investment perspective, Macallan exited the top 10 investor rankings for the first time, finishing in 11th place.

TO REPEAT THE OPENING OF THE HALF YEAR REPORT:

“THE FIRST HALF OF 2019 SAW VAST SUPPLY ON THE AUCTION MARKET. IN OUR OPINION, OVERSUPPLY”.

THROUGHOUT THE SECOND HALF OF 2019 SUPPLY REMAINED HIGH, BUT RELATIVELY CONSISTENT. THAT ENABLED DEMAND TO CATCH UP AND ULTIMATELY EXCEED SUPPLY.

Supply AND DEMAND


0

2,000

MONTHLY VOLUME 2018/2019JA

N '

18F

EB

'18

8,000

6,000

14,000

4,000

18,000

16,000

12,000

10,000

JUN

'19

MA

R '

18A

PR

'18

MA

Y '

18

JUL

'18

JUN

'18

AU

G '

18S

EP

'18

OC

T '

18

DE

C '

18

MA

Y '

19

NO

V '

18

AP

R '

19M

AR

'19

FE

B '

19JA

N '

19

DE

C '

19N

OV

'19

OC

T '

19S

EP

'19

AU

G '

19JU

L '

19

7,11

16

,88

58

,87

07,

97

69

,96

18

,916

7,74

6 9,1

04

8,3

49

10,8

67

11,0

06

11,0

99

11,4

95

9,1

58

13,3

47

15,8

30

10,5

54

11,1

60

11,4

44

11,6

33

10,0

66

15,2

20

12,0

03

11,9

85

0

MONTHLY VALUE 2018/2019

JAN

'18

FE

B '

18

£12,000,000

JUN

'19

MA

R '

18A

PR

'18

MA

Y '

18

JUL

'18

JUN

'18

AU

G '

18S

EP

'18

OC

T '

18

DE

C '

18

MA

Y '

19

NO

V '

18

AP

R '

19M

AR

'19

FE

B '

19JA

N '

19

DE

C '

19N

OV

'19

OC

T '

19S

EP

'19

AU

G '

19JU

L '

19

£2

,34

9,0

77

£2

,32

7,4

61

£2

,56

2,1

55

£2

,62

7,8

33

£3

,34

3,5

11£

3,1

25

,59

8£

2,4

41,

53

4£

3,3

42

,75

6£

3,1

27,

26

3£

5,4

18,4

66

£6

,09

6,1

63

£4

,010

,73

3£

4,3

87,

36

7£

3,1

48

,34

0£

5,4

60

,018

£4

,84

5,0

76

£3

,86

1,5

00

£4

,17

1,6

62

£4

,23

6,6

73

£4

,32

2,3

45

£4

,519

,19

9£

10,2

15,7

60

£4

,16

0,4

10£

4,3

79

,35

7

£10,000,000

£8,000,000

£6,000,000

£4,000,000

£2,000,000

October 2019 showed a spike in both the volume and value of bottles sold at auction in the UK. The huge value peak can largely be put down to a significant collection of whisky being sold as a one-off at Sotheby’s.

If we add a trendline, while the upwards trajectory is still clear, the rate of growth appears to be slowing as the UK secondary market for rare whisky starts to mature. We should not expect the vast rates of growth moving forward that we have seen in the past. As the number of bottles in the market is clearly finite, once supply plateaus, assuming demand remains the same or increases (which it evidently is doing) this bodes well for further investment gains.

MONTHLY VOLUME AND VALUE ANALYSIS


“ ...OCTOBER 2019 SHOWED A SPIKE IN BOTH THE VOLUME AND VALUE OF BOTTLES SOLD AT AUCTION IN THE UK.”


THIS COMPARISON STARTED AT THE END OF 2015 OBSERVING PERFORMANCE FIGURES FROM 31st DECEMBER 2014.

WE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THESE AS A RUNNING COMMENTARY ON

SCOTCH WHISKY’S PERFORMANCE AS AN ALTERNATIVE ASSET-CLASS

IN ITS OWN RIGHT.

Investment COMPARISON


0.00%

140.00%

100.00%

160.00%

40.00%

200.00%

FIVE YEAR PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 2014

APEX 1000

60.00%

DIAGEO (D

GE)

LIV-E

X FW

1000

GOLD $/O

Z

FTSE 100

BRENT CRUDE $

PB

20.00%

80.00%

120.00%

180.00%

-5.00%

15.00%

10.00%

20.00%

25.00%

FY 2019

BRENT CRUDE $

PB

GOLD $/O

Z

DIAGEO (D

GE)

FTSE 100

APEX 1000

LIV-E

X FW

1000

0.00%

5.00%

-4.1

9%

23

.49

%

18.8

7%

14.5

1%

12.1

0%

7.17

%

15.8

9%

181.

76

%

75

.09

%

36

.52

% 28

.18

%

14.8

7%

From a pure investment perspective, Single Malt Scotch Whisky had its worst year as an investment since records began. To add balance, the Bank of Scotland recently reduced the interest rates on some of their savings accounts from a heady 0.2% pa gross, to a whole 0.1% pa gross.

THE 2019 FY FIGURES ARE CHARTED ALONGSIDE A RUNNING TOTAL


0.00%

20.00%

35.00%

10.00%

45.00%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

5.00%

15.00%

25.00%

30.00%

40.00%

AVERAGE

14.2

8%

38

.37

%

27.

51% 30

.01%

7.17

%

23

.46

%

APEX1000 – 5 YEAR PERFORMANCE AND 5 YEAR AVERAGE


To add further balance; on an averaged five-year basis, our benchmark Apex 1000 Index has increased by an average of 23.46% per year.

The late publishing on this report has shown us that in January 2020 the Apex 1000 Index increased by 0.92% where January 2019 saw a dip by 2.01%. It’s still very early days yet, however, we appear to be returning to more buoyant trading conditions again.

Market SHARE 2019


EACH DISTILLERY IS MEASURED ACCORDING TO

ITS PERCENTAGE OF MARKET SHARE OF THE NUMBER OF

BOTTLES SOLD AT AUCTION IN THE UK OVER THE

COURSE OF 2019.

VolumeNUMBER OF BOTTLES SOLD

THIS IS THEN RANKED AS A LEAGUE TABLE AND COMPARED TO THE FULL YEAR 2018.

WE’VE ALSO INCLUDED THE 2019 HALF YEAR RESULTS TO PROVIDE MORE INSIGHT.


TOP 10 VOLUME MARKET SHARE

RANK 31 DECEMBER 2018 % HALF YEAR 2019 % 31 DECEMBER 2019 % ANNUAL MOVEMENT

1 MACALLAN 13.85% MACALLAN 16.62% MACALLAN 15.62% =

2 HIGHLAND PARK 5.61% HIGHLAND PARK 4.72% ARDBEG 4.93% UP 1

3 ARDBEG 5.02% ARDBEG 4.65% HIGHLAND PARK 4.41% DOWN 1

4 BRUICHLADDICH 4.10% BRUICHLADDICH 4.01% BOWMORE 3.81% UP 1

5 BOWMORE 3.72% BOWMORE 3.79% LAPHROAIG 2.96% UP 4

6 SPRINGBANK 3.63% GLENFIDDICH 3.28% GLENFIDDICH 2.90% UP 2

7 GLENDRONACH 3.57% LAPHROAIG 2.85% GLENDRONACH 2.74% =

8 GLENFIDDICH 3.26% GLENDRONACH 2.80% LAGAVULIN 2.72% UP 5

9 LAPHROAIG 3.09% SPRINGBANK 2.49% BRUICHLADDICH 2.64% DOWN 5

10 GLENMORANGIE 2.92% LAGAVULIN 2.44% SPRINGBANK 2.62% DOWN 4

On a year to date basis Macallan have extended their grip on the market. Their market share of volume has, however, shrunk from their 2019 half year peak.

Highland Park and Ardbeg appear to be in a long-term tug-of-war for second and third place. Both have impressive ‘back catalogues’ of collectables and both are capable of releasing some of the finest spirit in the industry.

Bruichladdich’s drop isn’t as extreme as it seems. So we can compare distilleries at a sub-brand level as an investment, we’ve now split Bruichladdich into three – Bruichladdich, Bruichladdich (Octomore) and Bruichladdich (Port Charlotte). This mirrors what we’ve previously done for Springbank and for Tobermory.


“SIGNIFICANT YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH IN VOLUME AND VALUE WAS ACHIEVED BY ROYAL LOCHNAGAR. A SINGLE CASK RELEASE WAS AT THE HEART OF THAT.”


0.00%

GLEN SCOTIA

GLENALLACHIE

GLEN GARIOCH

MILLBURN

GLENDULLAN

INVERLEVEN

ROYAL LOCHNAGAR

OBAN

CLYNELISH

BENRINNES

50.00% 100.00% 150.00% 200.00%

29.40%

34.56%

37.92%

38.71%

45.16%

46.33%

55.46%

136.98%

191.08%

121.79%

LARGEST % CHANGE IN VOLUME SHARE

As a percentage increase in market share for the whole of 2019, it is a top-three Diageo clean sweep as it was at the half year.


USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH VOLUME, THE £ VALUE ‘SHARE-OF-WALLET’ FIGURES CAN BE INSIGHTFUL FOR THE COLLECTOR/INVESTOR.

Value

IF VOLUME FOR A PARTICULAR DISTILLERY REMAINS STATIC OR INCREASES AND THE £ VALUE DECLINES, THIS COULD SIGNAL A SOFTENING IN THE MARKET FOR BOTTLES FROM THAT DISTILLERY. CONVERSELY, IF VOLUMES DECREASE BUT VALUES INCREASE OR REMAIN THE SAME, THIS COULD INDICATE A HARDENING OF PRICES AND INCREASING DEMAND.


TOP 10 VALUE MARKET SHARE

RANK 31 DECEMBER 2018 % HALF YEAR 2019 % 31 DECEMBER 2019 % ANNUAL MOVEMENT

1 MACALLAN 37.79% MACALLAN 37.11% MACALLAN 39.53% =

2 BOWMORE 7.58% BOWMORE 8.79% BOWMORE 8.59% =

3 ARDBEG 4.26% ARDBEG 4.38% ARDBEG 4.06% =

4 PORT ELLEN 3.39% PORT ELLEN 3.41% SPRINGBANK 3.06% UP 2

5 HIGHLAND PARK 3.36% LAPHROAIG 3.22% PORT ELLEN 3.01% DOWN 1

6 SPRINGBANK 2.81% SPRINGBANK 3.02% LAPHROAIG 2.96% UP 1

7 LAPHROAIG 2.66% HIGHLAND PARK 2.69% HIGHLAND PARK 2.65% DOWN 2

8 GLENFARCLAS 2.34% GLENDRONACH 2.04% LAGAVULIN 2.06% UP 4

9 GLENDRONACH 2.28% LAGAVULIN 2.00% GLENFARCLAS 1.89% DOWN 1

10 GLENFIDDICH 1.95% GLENFARCLAS 1.90% BRORA 1.82% UP 4

As with volume, the top 10 distilleries are ranked and then measured against their 2018 results. As with our volume results, we’ve added in the 2019 half year figures for comparison and trend analysis.

There is almost no stopping Macallan’s utter dominance of the collectors market (we’re not saying the investors or drinkers market), with virtually £40 out of every £100 spent at auction in the UK on Single Malt Scotch Whisky being spent on Macallan.


0.00%

INVERLEVEN

FETTERCAIRN

BENRINNES

DALMORE

MILTONDUFF

ROYAL LOCHNAGAR

CLYNELISH

TORMORE

29.69%

30.31%

36.94%

41.94%

46.27%

64.21%

65.81%

83.81%

207.26%

78.97%

50.00% 100.00% 150.00% 200.00% 250.00%

BRACKLA (ROYAL)

SPRINGBANK (HAZELBURN)

LARGEST % CHANGE IN £ VALUE SHARE


The top 10 distilleries which increased their £ value market share in 2019 are listed above.

THE COLLECTORS RANKING IS A LEAGUE TABLE BASED ON AN EQUAL WEIGHTING FOR VOLUME AND VALUE SOLD AT AUCTION IN THE UK USING ALL DATA FROM THE ENTIRE DATABASE RATHER THAN THE ANNUAL NUMBERS USED FOR SHOWING MARKET SHARE.

RARE WHISKY

Collectors RANKING


RANK 31ST DECEMBER 2018

31ST DECEMBER 2019

MOVEMENT (FULL YEAR 2019)

1 MACALLAN MACALLAN =

2 ARDBEG ARDBEG =

3 BOWMORE BOWMORE =

4 HIGHLAND PARK HIGHLAND PARK =

5 BRUICHLADDICH LAPHROAIG UP 1

6 LAPHROAIG GLENFIDDICH UP 1

7 GLENFIDDICH SPRINGBANK UP 1

8 SPRINGBANK LAGAVULIN UP 1

9 LAGAVULIN GLENMORANGIE UP 1

10 GLENMORANGIE PORT ELLEN UP 1

11 PORT ELLEN BALVENIE UP 1

12 BALVENIE GLENDRONACH UP 1

13 GLENDRONACH GLENFARCLAS UP 1

14 GLENFARCLAS BRUICHLADDICH DOWN 9

15 ARRAN GLENLIVET UP 1

COLLECTORS LEAGUE TABLE


31ST DECEMBER 2019


16 GLENLIVET ARRAN DOWN 1

17 CAOL ILA CAOL ILA =

18 DALMORE DALMORE =

19 TALISKER CLYNELISH UP 10

20 ROSEBANK BUNNAHABHAIN UP 2

21 BRORA TALISKER DOWN 2

22 BUNNAHABHAIN BRORA DOWN 1

23 ABERLOUR ABERLOUR =

24 GLEN GRANT MORTLACH UP 1

25 MORTLACH ROSEBANK DOWN 5

26 GLENGOYNE GLEN GRANT DOWN 2

27 GLENROTHES GLENROTHES =

28 KILCHOMAN GLENGOYNE DOWN 2

29 CLYNELISH BRUICHLADDICH(OCTOMORE) NEW

30 SPRINGBANK (LONGROW)

BRUICHLADDICH (PORT CHARLOTTE) NEW

Owing to the change in the way Bruichladdich is being reported, that’s the biggest shift. Clynelish’s ever increasing popularity moves it up a massive ten places as more interesting bottles appear more frequently.


THE INVESTORS DISTILLERY RANKING IS BASED 80% ON THE PURE % INCREASE IN VALUE FOR ALL BOTTLES, WITH A SMALL 10% WEIGHTING ON THE HIGHEST AVERAGE PRICE (ALL BOTTLES) AND THE OVERALL HIGHEST PRICE (10%) OF A SINGLE BOTTLE.

RARE WHISKY

Investors RANKING


INVESTORS LEAGUE TABLE


31ST DECEMBER 2019


1 BOWMORE SPRINGBANK UP 2

2 BRORA ROSEBANK UP 11

3 SPRINGBANK BRORA DOWN 1

4 MACALLAN BEN WYVIS UP 3

5 GLENUGIE KILLYLOCH UP 3

6 LAPHROAIG DALMORE UP 4

7 BEN WYVIS BOWMORE DOWN 6

8 KILLYLOCH GLENUGIE DOWN 3

9 CLYNELISH LOCHSIDE UP 13

10 DALMORE PORT ELLEN UP 2

11 ARDBEG MACALLAN DOWN 7

12 PORT ELLEN ST MAGDALENE (LINLITHGOW) NEW ENTRY

13 ROSEBANK CLYNELISH DOWN 4

14 ST MAGDALENE ST MAGDALENE =

15 GLENLOCHY MILLBURN UP 6


31ST DECEMBER 2019


16 GLENURY ROYAL DALLAS DHU UP 1

17 DALLAS DHU GLENLOCHY DOWN 2

18 DALMORE ARDBEG DOWN 7

19 GLEN GARIOCH LAPHROAIG DOWN 13

20 COLEBURN GLEN ORD DOWN 2

21 MILLBURN COLEBURN DOWN 1

22 LOCHSIDE GLEN ALBYN DOWN 2

23 CONVALMORE GLENURY ROYAL DOWN 7

24 SPRINGBANK (LONGROW) CONVALMORE DOWN 1

25 GLENDRONACH MORTLACH UP 3

26 BANFF BRACKLA (ROYAL) UP 22

27 LAGAVULIN GLEN GRANT UP 5

28 MORTLACH GLENDRONACH DOWN 3

29 GLENESK/HILLSIDE SPRINGBANK (LONGROW) DOWN 5

30 HIGHLAND PARK BANFF DOWN 4

This league table is where we place the most emphasis for brands being sought out by connoisseurs, collectors and investors. It is a temperature test for demand and a measurement of which bottles are increasing, and equally decreasing, most in value.

Springbank moves up three places for the year and retains its number one position from the half year report.

The other significant shift is Macallan exiting the top ten ‘investors’ distilleries for the first time. Other significant changes are Laphroaig and Bowmore moving down the league by thirteen places and six places respectively.


GRAIN IN Granularity


IN EDRINGTON BEAM SUNTORY’S “THE WHISKY YEARBOOK” SINGLE GRAIN WAS FEATURED AS BELOW.

“Single grain continues to make an impact. Over the last four years we have seen the growth of a new “category” within the category: The relentless growth of single grain whisky – led by brand leader, Haig Club.

The category now accounts for 89,178 cases and sales of £21.5 million in 2018, a rise of 24.7% from 2017. What is more, this growth is forecast to continue. We forecast that sales will reach 179,783 cases in 2022, which would represent an increase of 101.6% in just four years – faster growth than the gin category (though from a smaller base).

In the same time period, we can see the value of single grain rising to £42.1 million, representing a 95.9% increase on 2018 levels.”

This is really the first time a spotlight… maybe a small torch

has been shone onto the category at all. Previously overlooked, even ignored (we are guilty of that too), could Single Grain Scotch Whisky

represent any sort of an attractive investment?


VOLUME

0

2,000

20152016

20172018

2019

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

VALUE

£0

£300,000

20152016

20172018

2019

£50,000

£100,000

£150,000

£200,000

£250,000

AVERAGE £ VALUE

£100

£160

20152016

20172018

2019

£110

£120

£130

£140

£150

23

3

414

77

7

1,11

4

1,7

68

£5

3,2

54

.51

£2

7,2

03

.52

£10

8,7

09

.01 £

163

,57

3.1

6

£2

73

,67

2.4

2

£13

9.9

1 £14

6.8

3

£15

4.7

9

£12

8.6

3

£11

6.7

5

VOLUMES AND VALUES

We undertook some analysis into volumes, value and investment performance.

The UK auction market for bottles of Single Grain Scotch Whisky is a fraction of the Single Malt Whisky market.


AS A DIRECT COMPARISON TO THE SINGLE MALT MARKET; IN 2019 THERE WERE –

£154.79 was the average price

per bottle of Single Grain Scotch Whisky sold at

auction in the UK.

SINGLE GRAIN VOLUME

has increased by 658.80% over the past five years.

SINGLE GRAIN £ VALUE


THE SINGLE GRAIN MARKET IS STILL FRACTIONAL IN COMPARISON TO THE MALT MARKET. THAT SAID, ALL THE PERFORMANCE METRICS ARE HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION –

SINGLE GRAIN AVERAGE £ PER BOTTLE


1,768 bottles of Single Grain Scotch Whisky

sold at auction in the UK.

GRAIN IS 1.23% of the malt market in terms of VOLUME.

£273,672 in value of Single Grain Scotch Whisky

sold at auction in the UK.

GRAIN IS 0.47% of the malt market in

terms of VALUE.

£401.04 was the average

price per bottle of Single Malt Scotch Whisky sold at auction

in the UK.

143,895 bottles of

Single Malt Scotch Whisky sold at auction

in the UK.

£57,707,707 in value of Single Malt

Scotch Whisky sold at auction

in the UK.


90.00

115.00

110.00

105.00

95.00

120.00

100.00

25/12/2

017

25/11/

2019

28/10/2

019

30/09/2

019

02/09/2

019

05/08/2

019

08/07/

2019

10/0

6/2019

13/0

5/2019

15/0

4/2019

18/0

3/2019

18/0

2/2019

21/01/

2019

24/12/2

018

26/11/

2018

29/10/2

018

01/10

/2018

03/09/2

018

06/08/2

018

09/07/

2018

11/0

6/2018

14/0

5/2018

16/0

4/2018

19/0

3/2018

19/0

2/2018

22/01/

2018

23/12/2

019

In terms of a meaningful index to measure the investment performance of Single Grain as a category, there’s not enough market data to work back very far. We have been able to create the Single Grain 100 Index starting at the end of 2017.

SINGLE GRAIN 100 INDEX (SG100)


0

£400

£700

£200

£800

20 YEAR OLD

£100

£300

£500

£600

£6

1.17

£13

0.4

1

£11

1.4

5

£4

43

.38

£2

36

.04

£7

14.2

7

30 YEAR OLD 40 YEAR OLD

AVERAGE PRICE PER 70CL BOTTLE

Single Grain Single Malt

THE SG100 INDEX INCREASED 6.71% IN 2018 AND 8.29% IN 2019. IN EFFECT OUT-PERFORMING SINGLE MALT FOR 2019!

THE AVERAGE PRICE PER 70CL BOTTLE OF SINGLE GRAIN SOLD AT AUCTION BY AGE STATEMENT IS VERY TELLING. WE’RE PURELY USING INDEPENDENT BOTTLES HERE AS THERE ARE SO VERY FEW OFFICIAL BOTTLES WITH MEANINGFUL DATA TO WORK WITH. THE SINGLE MALT FIGURES ARE ALSO PURELY FOR INDEPENDENT BOTTLES AND EXCLUDE MACALLAN, BOWMORE, DALMORE AND ANY SILENT STILLS AS THESE SIGNIFICANTLY DISTORT CERTAIN AGE STATEMENTS.

The above graph illustrates the average price differences between similar aged Single Malt and Single Grain bottles.

For Single Grain, the 30 year old shows a +82.20% value increase compared to the 20 year old, and the 40 year old shows a +111.79% increase on the 30 year old.

With Single Malts, these same comparisons show that a 30 year old's value increases by +239.99% from the 20 year old bottle, and this drops to only a +61.10% increase between the 30 and 40 year old bottles.


“SINGLE GRAIN AUCTION PRICES (INDEPENDENT BOTTLES) INCREASE IN VALUE Y 111.79% FROM A 30 YEAR OLD TO A 40 YEAR OLD.”


FROM A ‘VALUE PER YEAR’ PERSPECTIVE, SINGLE GRAIN DOES APPEAR TO REPRESENT SOMETHING OF A GOOD-VALUE-BUY.

IF YOU’RE LOOKING FOR A 40TH BIRTHDAY GIFT OR A 30TH WEDDING ANNIVERSARY GIFT THEN SINGLE GRAIN REPRESENTS A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY, COSTING JUST 33.05% OF ITS EQUIVALENT SINGULARLY MALTED COUSIN.

So, is Single Grain the next BIG ‘thing’? Never say never, but in reality, no it isn’t in our opinion. It lacks the allure and years of industry marketing that malts have had. However the sheer volume (or lack-of) on the market will to some degree preserve its scarcity.

But don’t overlook older aged Single Grains, as there’s clearly increasing demand (the average price per bottle at auction is increasing along with supply which is always a good sign of high demand). There’s little, if any, chance they’ll even slightly catch up with Single Malts on a ‘price-per-age’ basis, but bottles might just be steady and consistent with a 6% to 8% increase in value per year. The SG100 Index will now feature online along with our other suite of indices.

The Edrington Beam Suntory Whisky Yearbook can be downloaded here:

https://www.thewhiskyyearbook.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/The-Whisky-Yearbook-UK-2019.pdf)


https://www.thewhiskyyearbook.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/The-Whisky-Yearbook-UK-2019.pdf

https://www.thewhiskyyearbook.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/The-Whisky-Yearbook-UK-2019.pdf

Crystal BallGAZING


ARE CONSUMERS (DRINKERS, COLLECTORS AND INVESTORS) STRUGGLING TO DIFFERENTIATE WITH MACALLAN BOTTLINGS NOW? FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY YEARS, WE’RE SEEING LIMITED RELEASE MACALLAN BOTTLES SELL FOR LESS THAN THEIR RETAIL PRICE AT AUCTION. THE 2019 EASTER ELCHIES BLACK IS A GOOD EXAMPLE; IT RETAILED FOR £750 AND NOW REGULARLY SELLS AT AUCTION FOR £600–£650.

ARE WE STARTING TO SEE FATIGUE CREEPING INTO THE MARKET AS THERE APPEAR TO BE MANY LIMITED RELEASES WITH NO AGE STATEMENT AND A RELATIVELY HIGH PRICE-TAG?


Unless something changes, in our opinion, Macallan will have little chance of regaining their number one spot in the investment league in the secondary market. Anecdotally, based on the many conversations we have with fellow collectors, it looks like Macallan may have lost the ‘heart’ of some of their most loyal previous brand advocates.

There will always be ultra-rarities which will grab headlines and attract much positive press… The glossy crystal chandelier above the ocean liner ball-room appears in good order but the engine room most of us mere mortals operate within might need a service.

More positively, demand for ‘traditional’ Macallan casks is still very high. Prices have gone through a revolutionary phase of growth in the past five years and demand is still very much exceeding supply for heavily sherried great quality casks. These are so rare now, they’re almost becoming viewed in the same light as the very rarest of bottles – prized possessions of almost limitless value.

But is it simply that the balance of supply and demand needs to be redressed? If £4 out of every £10 spent at auction in the UK is on Macallan then surely it’ll either take time for demand to catch up or the market requires some calm… e.g. stop ‘flipping’ contemporary Macallan and actually drink some!


WHAT DO YOU BUY THEN?Discontinued younger age stated ‘standard’ bottles from many years ago continue to be hugely desirable. Laphroaig 10 year olds from the 1970s, Lagavulin 12 year olds, Talisker 8 year olds…the list is almost endless.

Tiny supply and the continued demand of the curious connoisseur should keep these bottles of yesteryear ahead of the masses.

Age matters more and more – While NAS (No Age Statement) is necessary to maintain supply in a market where we become flippant with age (e.g. “it’s just a 10-year-old”), older age stated Scotch is becoming more and more prized. Whatever the quality, whatever the brand/distillery, older is better from an investment perspective. With the exception of a few rarities (Tun1401 batch 1 etc) this won’t change. We also think there should be a pride in stating an age however young that may be. Be three and be proud!

We’re still seeing increased interest in some of the previously overlooked gems which are becoming more desirable as an increasing number of consumers become connoisseurs, then collectors. We still see value in buying Clynelish, Mortlach, GlenDronach, Talisker and many others.


AS THE CORONAVIRUS TAKES HOLD, IT’LL BE FASCINATING TO SEE WHETHER SCOTCH CAN ACT AS A HEDGE FOR TRADITIONAL MARKETS. IT’S A PHYSICAL ASSET WHICH IS EASILY STORED AND BOUGHT REMOTELY.

Some are saying buy big into gold. Will that be the case for liquid gold?


the 2019 full year collectors and investors single malt … · 2020-05-01 · the number of...

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