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The 2016 EU Agricultural Outlook
Conference
Wine, olive oil, fruit and vegetables
Brussels, 6-7 December
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Important sectors for EU agriculture (% of total)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Area Value Labour Exports Imports
Olive
Wine
Vegetables
Fruit
Source: EUROSTAT (EAA, FSS), DG Agriculture and Rural Development
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Diversity makes it complicated
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Olive oil – diverging trends in production (1000 t)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Spain and Portugal Rest of EU
Rest of the world Linear (Rest of the world)
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Olive oil – diverging trends in consumption (kg/capita)
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Producing MS Non Producing MS
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Olive oil – towards more net exports
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Consumption (ES, PT, IT, GR) Consumption Rest of EU Net exports Extra EU
-1.6% -0.8%
+7.5% +3.2%
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Wine: new consumption trends
0
50
100
150
200
250
Direct use Other use Net trade
• Fresh / easy wines (in particular sparkling)
• Trade in bulk
• Segment of premium classical
• Growth in Asia / America
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Apples: less fresh fruit, more exports
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Fresh apples Processing & waste Net trade
Fresh apples per capita in the EU
17.8 kg in 2005-06
15.0 kg in 2015-16
14.2 kg in 2025-26
2.4 apples a week in 2005
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Apples: less fresh fruit, more exports
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Fresh apples Processing & waste Net trade
Fresh apples per capita in the EU
17.8 kg in 2005-06
15.0 kg in 2015-16
14.2 kg in 2025-26
1.9 apples a week in 2015
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Tomatoes: stagnating consumption, value adding
0
5
10
15
20
25
Retail volume (kg per…Retail value (EUR per capita)
7.9
Source: elaboration from Euromonitor & IHS Markit (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK)
17.2
8.1
19.3
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Main messages
Important sectors but diversity of situations
Relative stagnation / decline of domestic consumption
Trade should play a role to balance
Value adding is key for such sectors