THE 2012 ELECTIONS:A VIEWER’S GUIDE

Direction of Country

Sept.

11

Bush

re-ele

cted

Right track Wrong direction

Obama inaugurated

Source: NYT/CBS News polls, 3/8/2001 to 6/2/2012

0102030405060708090

100Financial crisis

Trust In Our Institutions

Nurses

Pharm

acists

Medica

l doct

ors

Police

officer

sCler

gy

Accou

ntants

Journa

lists

Bank

ers

Real e

state

agen

ts

Lawye

rs

Busin

ess ex

ecutiv

es

Union l

eade

rs

Stockb

rokers

Telem

arkete

rs

Lobby

ists

Membe

rs of

Congre

ss

Car sal

esmen

0%20%40%60%80%

100% 84%73%70%

54%52%43%

26%25%20%19%18%18%12% 8% 7% 7% 7%

Do you have high/very high trust in ___

Source: Gallup, Nov. 28-Dec. 1, 2011

Voting Habits By Automobile Ownership

Dems Drive:• Hybrid

vehicles• Subarus• MinisRepubs Drive:• Jaguars• GMCs• Land Rovers• Lexuses

Voting Habits By Beer Preference

Dems drink:• Miller High Life• Guinness• Heineken• CoronaRepubs drink:• Michelob Ultra• Coors Light• Busch Light• Sam Adams

The 2008 Map

1/19/2009 7/19/2009 1/19/2010 7/19/2010 1/19/2011 7/19/2011 1/19/201225

50

75

Obama’s Job Approval1/25/200

967%

50%8/24/20

09

5/3/2010

50%

40%8/14/2011

Debt ceilin

g fight

OBL killed

Health care

passes

Stimulus

passes

1/19/2009 7/19/2009 1/19/2010 7/19/2010 1/19/2011 7/19/2011 1/19/201225

50

75

Obama’s Job Approval1/25/200

967%

50%8/24/20

09

5/3/2010

50%

40%8/14/2011

7/142011

46%

The Polls

U.S. Demographics

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

102030405060708090

100 WhiteBlackHis-panicAsian

75.6%69.4%

Hisp 16.3%Af Am 12.2%Asian 4.7%

63.7%

Hisp 9%Af Am 11.8%Asian 2.8%

Hisp 12.6%Af Am 12.2%Asian 3.7%

U.S. Demographics

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

102030405060708090

100 White

23.6%

75.6%69.4% 63.7

%

28.5%

33.2%

The Swing State Map

Buy A Tivo

Florida Ohio Virginia North Carolina

Colorado

$59.9 $62.9

$44.9

$22.8$30.6

$59.0

$49.9$43.0

$33.9

$24.2

Dem Spending

In Millions of Dollars

Total Ad Spending By Group

$239.6

$52.4 $75.5

$225.9

ObamaDem GroupsRomneyRepub Groups

In Millions of Dollars

2008 Vs. 2012

Obama Outside Dems

McCain/Romney

Outside Repubs

$310.1

$15.0

$134.8

$55.8

$239.6

$52.4 $75.5

$225.9

2008 Total

The Swing State Polls

Ohio Virginia Florida Colorado Iowa

46.2 47.3 47.3 47.84545.5 46.7 46.7 45.5 44.8

ObamaRomney

Source: Real Clear Politics

Obama’s 2008 Margin By State

DC VT NY MD DE CT WA OR NM NV MN IA VA FL NC MT AZ ND TX MS KS KY AR AK UT WY

Obama’s 2008 Margin By State

NH IA CO VA OH FL IN NC MO MT GA AZ

9.6 9.5 9

6.34.6

2.81.10.300000000

000004

-0.100000000

000001

-2.3

-5.2

-8.5

272 Electoral Votes

Congress’s Job Approval

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CBS/NYTGallupNBC/WSJ

13%-16%

50%

Historic House Turnover

1900

1908

1916

1924

1932

1940

1948

1956

1964

1972

1980

1988

1996

2004

0%

50%

100%

Democrats Republicans Other

Historic House Turnover

1900

1906

1912

1918

1924

1930

1936

1942

1948

1954

1960

1966

1972

1978

1984

1990

1996

2002

2008

0

20

40

60

80

100Recessions

House Turnover, 1980-2010

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

D+27

R+54

R+34 D+3

1D+21

R+63

U.S. Senate

DemocratsRepublicansIndependents

5147

2

The Senate Landscape

Current Makeup: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

The Vulnerable Democrats

The Vulnerable Republicans

The Swing State Map