the 2010 census and demographic change leo f. estrada, phd ucla school of public affairs
TRANSCRIPT
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The 2010 Census and Demographic Change
Leo F. Estrada, PhDUCLA School of Public Affairs
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The Origins of the Census
“The Great Experiment”Congressional Representation based on population
First Census—1790 (10 year intervals)Census-racial distinctionsCollection of household information
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Census TimelineLate January 2010: media outreach beginsMid-March: forms mailed out to 100 million households
April 1, 2010: Census DayMay – July 2010: phone follow-up interviews
July – September 2010: interview follow-upOctober – December: data processingDecember 31, 2010: Final results presented to the U.S. President
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The 2010 “Short” Census Name Sex Age Date of Birth Hispanic Origin Race Household Relationships Own or rent
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The American Community Survey
On-going monitor 77K households per month
Data summed up annually In 2010, survey sample will be of 1 million households
Characteristics of population will be determined by ACS (i.e., education, occupation, home value, income, etc)
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The Undercount?
Every 1% of undercount is = to 3 Million
The undercount in 2000 was 2.78% Most likely to be undercounted:
Granny flats (address undercount)Babies (intra-household undercount)Youth (permanent residence)Transients (permanent residence)Immigrants (distrust, fear)
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Outreach
Importance of outreach for cooperation
Trusted sources of information Alleviate confidentiality and privacy concerns
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Why the Census Matters
Reapportionment/RedistrictingRestructuring political space
Government funding--$400 Billion for transportation, hospitals, schools, public works, etc.
Source for understanding markets
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Growth
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US Population Growth, 2000-2008
2008(millions
)
2000 (millions
)
%2008 %2000 Diff
Hispanic 46.9 35.2 15.5 12.5 3.0 Native
27.3 21.1 9.1 7.5 1.6
Foreign Born
18.0 14.1 6.0 5.0 1.0
White 206.2 194.5 67.8 69.1 -2.7Black 37.6 33.7 12.4 12.0 0.4Asian 13.4 10.1 4.4 3.6 0.8
U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 2007 and 2008
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Demography and Latinas
Population change is due to: Births Deaths Net Migration
Future of the U.S is aligned with the future trends of Latinas
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Women Giving Birth Last Year, 2007
Births % of all Births
% Births to Unmarried
Latinas 897,810 21.7 42.0US Born Latinas
419,494 10.1 52.4
Foreign Born Latinas
478,316 11.6 32.9
White 2,337,722 56.5 26.4
Black 565,588 13.7 70.5
Asian 210,686 5.1 10.5
Total 4,136,978 100.0 35.8
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Projections in Elementary School Minority Aged Children
2000 to 2025
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2000 2005 2010 2025
Other
Asian
Hispanic
Black
(in
thou
sand
s)
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, CPS, P25-1130
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Marriage
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CA Women by Marital Status, 2007
All Latinas
US Born Latinas
Foreign Born Latinas
White Women
Black Women
%Married 50.8 41.6 58.4 56.6 32.8%Separated 4.1 3.5 4.5 1.6 4.9
%Divorced 8.4 10.5 6.8 11.7 12.4
%Widowed 3.6 3.7 3.6 7.3 6.9
%Never Married
33.1 40.8 26.7 22.7 42.9
Total (millions)
30.0 13.5 16.5 156.6 26.0
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Source: Pew Hispanic Center and ACS 2005
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Source: Pew Hispanic Center and American Community Survey 2005
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Source: American Community Survey 2006-2008
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Morbidity: Causes of Death
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Rank Cause of Death Deaths Rate /
100,000
Percent of All Deaths
Ratio of Hispanic to non-Hispanic White
1 Heart Disease 222.2 27 0.7
2 Cancer 186.6 23 0.6
3 Stroke 51.1 6 0.8
4 Respiratory Disease 41.5 5 0.4
5 Accidents 38.1 5 0.8
6 Diabetes mellitus 24.9 3 1.5
7 Alzheimer’s 22.5 3 0.6
8 Influenza / Pneumonia 20.3 3 0.9
9 Kidney Disease 14.5 2 0.9
10 Blood Poisoning 11.4 1 0.8
11 Suicide 11.0 1 0.5
12 Liver Disease 9.2 1 1.6
13 High Blood Pressure 7.9 1 1.0
14 Parkinson’s Disease 6.1 1 0.6
15 Homicide 5.9 1 2.7
Leading Causes of Death, 2005
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Youthfulness
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15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age Distribution by Sex and Age Distribution by Sex and Hispanic Origin: 2000Hispanic Origin: 2000
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
Male Female Female
Male
(In percent)(In percent)Hispanic
Non-HispanicWhite
Source: Current Population Survey, March 2000, PGP-4
age
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California Median Age, 2007
White Latino
Total 42.5 26.6
Male 41.3 26.4
Female 43.6 26.8
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CA Latina/o Median Age, 2007
Total Latino Latina
Total 27 27 27
US Born 17 17 18
Foreign Born
36 35 38
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Immigration
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ImmigrationImmigration
*Immigration is an global phenomena
*Immigrants are risk takers
*Immigrants revitalize decaying urban areas
*Immigrants reduce the rate of wage growth
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Leading Countries of Immigration
1900 1960 2000
Germany Italy Mexico
Ireland Germany China
Canada Canada Philippines
UK UK India
Sweden Poland Cuba
Italy Soviet Union Vietnam
Russia Mexico El Salvador
Poland Ireland Korea
Norway Austria Dominican Republic
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CA Latina Citizenship, 2007
Latinas <18 Latinas 18+
2,216,306 4,086,793
Native Born 91.1 42.6
Foreign Born 8.8 57.4
Naturalized
9.8 32.7
Not US citizen
8.0 38.6
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U.S. Citizenship of the Foreign-U.S. Citizenship of the Foreign-Born Hispanic Population by Year of Born Hispanic Population by Year of
Entry: 2000Entry: 2000(in percent)(in percent)
Percent
74.2
45.7
23.9
6.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Before 1970 1970 to 1979 1980 to 1989 1990 to 2000
Source: Current Population Survey, March 2000, PGP-4
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The New Demographic Terrain
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16 States Will Account for 90% of All Future Growth in the US
California VirginiaTexas TennesseeFlorida UtahGeorgia South CarolinaArizona OregonWashington MichiganNorth Carolina NevadaColorado Minnesota
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California Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1980
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
White Latino Black Asian/Other
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California Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1990
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
White Latino Black Asian/Other
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California Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
White Latino Black Asian/Other
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California Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2010
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
White Latino Black Asian/Other
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California Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2020
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
White Latino Black Asian/Other
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California Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2040
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
White Latino Black Asian/Other
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California Population by California Population by Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity1970-20071970-2007
Source: United States Census Bureau
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California Latinos will become California Latinos will become the single largest ethnic groupthe single largest ethnic group
Source: California Department of Finance
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CALIFORNIA 1990
Other (42%) White(58%)
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CALIFORNIA 2020
Other (59%)White (41%)
Department of Finance, Urban Research Unit, Report 88, P-4
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CALIFORNIA 2040
Other (69%)White (31%)
Department of Finance, Urban Research Unit, Report 88, P-4
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U.S. Latinos--The Fourth Largest Latino “Nation”
1. Mexico 110 million 2. United States 46.9 million 3. Colombia 44.4 million 4. Spain 41.3
million 5. Argentina 36.0 million 6. Peru 28.7 million 7. Venezuela 26.4 million 8. Chile 16.4 million 9. Ecuador 13.7 million 10 Guatemala 13.0 million
The number for the U.S is 51.4 million including Puerto Rico
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Education
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4.
6.
10.
11.
1.
2.
5.
7.
3.
8.
9.
Chicana/o Educational Pipeline
100Elementary School
Students
44 Graduate from
High School
26Enroll in College17
Go to a Community
College
9 Go to a 4-
Year College
1Transfers to a
4-Year College 7Graduate w/ a B.A. Degree
56Drop out of
School
2Graduate w/ a
Graduate or Professional Degree
<1Graduates w/ a Doctoral DegreeSource: 2000 Census; Dan Solorzano
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Educational attainment, Educational attainment, 2005-072005-07
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Latino educational Latino educational attainment, 2005-07attainment, 2005-07
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Latino educational Latino educational attainment, attainment, 1990 to 2005-071990 to 2005-07
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Early Childhood Education: Children Enrolled in Pre-School
0
10
2030
4050
6070
8090
100
Age 3 Age 4 Age 5
White, NH
Black, NH
Asian
Hispanic
Source: CPS, Bureau of the Census, October, 1997
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Digital divide: Digital divide: “Do you ever visit the website of your “Do you ever visit the website of your child’s school?”child’s school?”
Source: PPIC
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Occupations and Earnings
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Occupations CA Women, 2007
White Women Latinas
3,533,648 2,187,309
Management 46.4 21.2
Service 14.7 29.0
Sales 35.6 35.0
Farming 0.1 2.2
Construction 0.7 0.7
Production 2.6 1.2
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CA Earnings, 2007
White Latino % of White Earnings
Male, Full-Time Worker
$62,789 $29,807 47.5%
Female, Full-Time Worker
46,600 26,066 55.9%
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CA Per Capita Income, 2007
Whites $39,761 Blacks $21,406 Latino $15,206
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Latino Politics
An ever important force….but low on registration..
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California Latino Voters, 2008
0500,000
1,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,0005,000,000
Citizen Adults Registered Voters
60 percent of eligible Latino adults are registered to vote
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California Latino Voters
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1996 2000 2004 2008
Latino Voters
Source: NALEO
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California Latino Share of Total Vote (percent)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1996 2000 2004 2008
Latino Share ofVote
Source: NALEO
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California Voter Registration
MetroArea
LatinoLatino
19901990LatinoLatino
20002000LatinoLatino
GrowthGrowthNon-LatinoNon-Latino
20002000Non-LatinoNon-Latino
GrowthGrowth
Los AngelesLos Angeles 766,017 1,359,497 77% 5,578,624 8%
San San FranciscoFrancisco
276,452 309,198 12% 2,984,134 7%
San DiegoSan Diego 109,100 158,575 45% 964,347 -10%
SacramentoSacramento 129,544 175,479 35% 1,562,726 17%
FresnoFresno 107,424 153,354 43% 474,137 6%
OtherOther 118,854 191,173 61% 1351,000 27%
TOTALS 1,507,391 2,347,271 56% 12,914,968 9%TOTALS 1,507,391 2,347,271 56% 12,914,968 9%
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Conclusions
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Growth Forecast By 2020, Hispanic population
will double 36% will be minorities rising
from 28% now Whites are now minorities in
Hawaii and New Mexico and soon will be in California and Texas
Most Americans younger than 18 will be minorities
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Latinos in CaliforniaLatinos in California
A New Terrain-A majority of Californians (53.4%) are non-White
Latinos in California-remain youthful, employed, with changing families, and generational differences
Impact: schools, consumer base, labor force, non-English language media, business formation, voting power, etc.
Persistent Issues: immigration, language, concerns about separatism, low educational attainment
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PPIC
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Digital divide: Digital divide: “Do you ever visit the website of your “Do you ever visit the website of your child’s school?” child’s school?”
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Digital divide: Digital divide: Do you ever use a computer at home, at Do you ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school?” work, or at school?”
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““How serious of a threat is air pollution How serious of a threat is air pollution in your region in your region to you and your immediate family?” to you and your immediate family?”
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““How serious of a threat is air pollution How serious of a threat is air pollution in your region in your region to you and your immediate family?” to you and your immediate family?”
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Politics: Percent Voting for Obama Politics: Percent Voting for Obama
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Politics: Voted “yes” on Proposition 8 Politics: Voted “yes” on Proposition 8 to ban same-sex marriageto ban same-sex marriage