The 2002/3 Season in South Africa

Complex stresses, complex warnings & responses

Ackn: SEI, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, NOAA-OGP, USAID

Emma Archer and Gina Ziervogel

The big picture for 2002/3…

• SADC region experienced state of ‘complex crisis’

• In South Africa, dry summer rainfall season with substantial impacts

• Will view at the national and district level

• Despite improved warning & response support measures; constrained response & adaptation

• What went wrong ?

At the national level in South Africa

• Limpopo Province: widespread livestock mortalities

• Potential R46 million payout in aid/subsidy

• Mpumalanga & Northwest: further livestock mortality and crop water stress

At the district level in South Africa

• Vhembe district: drought impacts

• Particularly significant north of the Soutpansberg – livestock mortality

• Crop water stress reported January and ongoing throughout the remainder of the season

• Built on substandard (quality, not amount) rainfall season of 2001/2002 accumulated effects

The good news …

• A time of advances in climate prediction + intermediary mechanisms

• Vhembe: forecast received by– Farmers– District institutions

• Limpopo Province: forecast received by PDA What happened ?

Some preliminary ideas• EWS itself needs improvement

• CONSTRAINTS on RESPONSE– Individual

• Multiple stressors• Need to couple EWS with VA

– Institutional• Institutional issues central to 2002/3• Need to couple EWS with increased institutional capacity

building

A broad framework for considering such case studies

Climate

PopulationGrowth

(might be + or – in rural areas)

Economic growth

Technologicalchange

Food insecurity

Degradedenvironment

Stressed social relations

Relationships between Global/regional/national and local

Regional and national drivers

Local realisations

Key Relationships in the South African case

Food security/Drought as a local realization of global, regional, national and local drivers

Decreased tourism

Climate

Health

Economic change

Security

Grain stocks and reserves

Local realisations

Weakened labour force

Early Warning System

Relationship between global and local

Household Food insecurity

Global drivers

HIV+/AIDS

Market failure

Livestock mortality

Drought relief

Agricultural advisory

Agricultural support

Institutional capability

Limited resources

Institutional

capability

South African Case

• In the South African story, which are the key relationships that were identified?

• What is the nature of those relationships– Who are the key actors?– How have the interactions changed over

time?– How might the interactions change in the

future to best address the local concern?

Key Relationships• National Department of Agriculture and District Departments

Suggestions that relationships have become more complex this year (needs work)

• Media • Radio broadcast of the forecast SAWS and local users (farmers)

Improved this year• District organisations and farmers

• Extension officers• Education/outreach

Not certain if improved this year• Agricultural advisory

- ARC and NDAImproved this year (needs work)

Conclusions

• Process mapping is paramount

• Stakeholder and institutional mapping helps to identify strengths and weaknesses in roles and relationships

• This helps to focus further action – At the intervention level– For research