thayer vietnam & u.s. presidents to meet at the white house

7/27/2019 Thayer Vietnam & U.S. Presidents to Meet at the White House

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Background Briefing:

Vietnam & U.S. Presidents tomeet at The White House

Carlyle A. Thayer

July 23, 2013

The visit to Washington this week (July 24-26) by President Truong Tan Sang is a

major step forward in bilateral relations between Vietnam and the United States.

The facts speak for themselves. The last Vietnamese Presidential visit was in 2007. It

was followed by a visit by Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung in 2008.

President Sang’s visit is the first high-level visit in half a decade. And as Nguyen Quoc

Cuong, Vietnamese Ambassador to the United States, pointed out in a recent

interview with the Vietnam News Agency, “nearly one decade has passed since the

two nations established the current framework of constructive, friendly partnership

and multi-faceted cooperation… It is time to define a new bilateral partnership

agreement.”

During the period since normalization of diplomatic relations in 1995 two-way trade

has grown to US $24.5 billion with a surplus of US $14.8 billion in Vietnam’s favour.The United States is Vietnam’s largest export market. Bilateral trade is expected to

reach US $33 billion in 2015 and US $50 billion by 2020. American companies have

invested US $240 billion in Vietnam. The numbers of Vietnamese students studying

in the United States is now over 15,000. Vietnamese and U.S. officials regularly meet

on the sidelines of major multilateral meetings to discuss how to address mutual

concerns.

There are many other indicators of the growth in bilateral relations. The time would

appear ripe for both sides to restructure and institutionalize the bilateral

relationship for mutual benefit.

Shortly after John Kerry was appointed Secretary of State Vietnam approached the

U.S. about a possible visit. At least two planned visits by Secretary Kerry were

cancelled. In April this year discussions on the possibility of a presidential visit to

Washington were revived. Sources report that Vietnam was initially slow to respond

but quickly got behind the U.S proposal. A formal invitation was issued around July

2-3 and Vietnam responded positively around July 10-11.

On April 13, the Vietnam Communist Party’s Politburo unanimously adopted a

resolution on international integration. This document made absolutely clear that

priority was to be given to economic integration and that all other forms of

integration, including security and defense, were to support this objective. The

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Politburo resolution highlighted the role of the major powers and key multilateral

institutions.

If the above chronology of developments is accurate, it would seem to undercut

speculation that Vietnam sought a presidential visit only after President Truong Tan

Sang’s visit to Beijing in June reportedly encountered difficulties over territorialdisputes in the South China Sea.

What is clear, however, is that President Sang’s visit was organized at very short

notice. Vietnamese officials complain that they had only two weeks to coordinate

preparations for the presidential visit. Vietnamese officials in their discussions with

their American counterparts insisted that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) be

included in the draft seven point joint statement to be issued after the two

presidents met.

Economic relations will dominate during President Sang’s visit to the U.S. A White

House statement issued on July 11th noted that President Obama would like to

discuss with his Vietnamese counterpart “the importance of completing a high

standard Trans-Pacific Partnership.” The key issue will be a commitment by both

sides to speed up negotiations on the TPP to meet President Obama’s desire to see

an agreement reached by all parties by October. Neither president is likely go into

specific trade details, but both will commit their negotiating teams to make progress.

Sources report that the U.S. was unusually accommodating when Vietnam submitted

a list of bullet points on the TPP for discussion.

Agreement on the TPP would lay a strong foundation for codifying their bilateral

relations into a more formal document. It has long been reported that former

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pushed for a “strategic partnership” in 2010. It issignificant that the statement issued by The White House Press Secretary noted that

President Obama “welcomes the opportunity to discuss with President Sang how to

further strengthen our partnership on regional strategic issues [emphasis added].”

Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, speaking at the Shangri -La Dialogue in

Singapore in late May, stated that Vietnam wanted to establish “strategic

partnerships” with all permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

Whether the final agreement will be officially called a “strategic partnership” is

unclear. Vietnam and Australia, for example, agreed to a comprehensive

partnership. In fact, the Australia-Vietnam agreement is a “strategic partnership” by

another name. Strategic partnership agreements include a commitment to develop amulti-year Plan of Action and a joint high-level mechanism to manage cooperative

activities.

While economic relations are likely to dominate the presidential discussions, there

are other issues on the table. The U.S. has signaled that President Obama would like

to discuss enhancing cooperation with Vietnam and ASEAN, climate change and

human rights.

There has been some media speculation that the South China Sea will dominate

discussions. This remains to be seen. It is more likely that both sides will reiterate

their long-standing support for upholding international law, an ASEAN-China Code of

Conduct in the South China Sea, and the non-use or threat of force to settle disputes.



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President Obama will maintain U.S. neutrality on the merits of conflicting

sovereignty claims.

Vice President Joe Biden spelled out U.S. policy on maritime disputes in an address

delivered at George Washington University on July 18 th. The Vice President stated:

With regard to maritime disputes, it’s crucial that all nations have a clear understanding of whatconstitutes acceptable international behavior. That means no intimidation, no coercion, no

aggression, and a commitment from all parties to reduce the risk of mistake and miscalculation.

...So it’s in everyone’s interests that there be freedom of navigation, unimpeded lawful commerce,

respect for international laws and norms, and peaceful resolution of territorial disputes.

That’s why I encourage China and ASEAN to work even more q uickly to reach an agreement on a

code of conduct in the South China Sea. Setting clear rules is the first step to managing these

disputes. And the U.S. has a strong interest in seeing that this happen as well.

Vietnam is one of the world’s top ten countries where the impact of climate change

will be most severe. Cooperation on mitigating the impact of climate change has long

been a topic for discussion between the U.S. and Vietnam. It is one of the key issuesincluded in Vietnam’s strategic partnership agreements with European states. It

would form an important element in a future strategic partnership-type agreement

between the U.S. and Vietnam.

The U.S. position on human rights has been repeatedly mentioned by American

officials as an obstacle to the development of bilateral relations. For example, on July

10th

, a day before The White House officially announced President Sang’s visit, The

Asia Foundation released the text of an interview with U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam,

David Shear. Ambassador Shear stated, “if we are going to have a much closer

economic relationship, if we are going to have a TPP, and if we are going to

drastically increase our diplomatic cooperation, those efforts will not get the politicalsupport from the American people that they need without demonstrable progress in

human rights on Vietnam’s side.”

However U.S. officials appear to be down playing this issue in advance of President

Sang’s visit. Vietnamese officials note that an op ed article prepared by Ambassador

Shear for the Vietnamese press omitted any detailed mention of human rights.

President Obama, however, has plenty of scope to raise human rights issues in

private including the cases of lawyers Cu Huy Ha Vu and Le Quoc Quan, and other

imprisoned dissidents such as Father Nguyen Van Ly and blogger Nguyen Van Hai

(Dieu Cay) who is currently on an extended hunger strike.

Significantly, President Truong Tan Sang has stated unequivocally “we are ready to

discuss the topics of democracy, human rights and religious freedom” during his

meeting with President Obama. President Sang also noted that differences over

human rights were “normal.” It is unlikely that presidential discussions will result in a

break through on the human rights front. Both sides share different perceptions.

Vietnam’s conception of human rights, for example, is much broader than the U.S.

focus on political and civil rights.

There are potentially two face saving possibilities on human rights. First, President

Sang could include a number of prisoners of conscience among those granted

amnesty on National Day, September 2nd. Second, Vietnam’s National Assemblycould adopt an amendment to the state Constitution further strengthening



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Vietnam’s commitment to human rights and religious freedom. This could provide an

opportunity for the U.S. to provide advice and assistance.

It is notable, in return, that the Vietnamese press has revived reporting on the loss of

life and limb caused by wartime unexploded ordnance and the continuing effects of

Agent Orange. The media has called on the U.S. to step up its efforts to addressthese issues. The Huffington Post (July 23) editorialized that the U.S. should provide

assistance to those suffering disabilities as a result of exposure to dioxin, a key

component of Agent Orange, in a future strategic partnership agreement.

Future military-to-military cooperation also appears to have been downplayed. Very

little has been said in public about the first visit by Senior Lt. Gen. Do Ba Ty, Chief of

the General Staff, Vietnam People’s Army. Sources report that that the first draft of

Ambassador Shear’s op ed article contained a brief reference about bilateral military

cooperation. It was dropped in the final draft scheduled for publication this week.

In an interview with Associated Press on the eve of his departure to Washington,

President Sang called for the U.S. to remove all restrictions on the sale of lethal

weapons to Vietnam. This is a long-standing Vietnamese concern, raised in 2009

during the visit to Washington by Vietnam’s Minister of National Defense, General

Phung Quang Thanh. This concern was raised again three years later when Secretary

of Defense Leon Panetta visited Hanoi. Under ITAR (International Traffic in Arms

Regulaltions) the U.S. is only permitted to sell non-lethal equipment (with certain

exceptions) to Vietnam on a case-by-case basis. Vietnamese party conservatives use

these restrictions to put a break on the development of bilateral defense ties.

Vietnam is primarily motivated to end what it views as unwarranted political

discrimination. As President Sang noted in his pre-departure interview, “it is now

time for our bilateral relations to be fully normalized in all fields.”

There is a lot at stake for both countries for the upcoming presidential discussions to

end on a successful note. The U.S. policy of rebalancing is in need of a major non-

defense and security component. An agreement on the TPP would fit the bill.

Vietnam, which aims to multilateralize and diversify its external relations, would very

much like to upgrade the framework of its bilateral relations with the U.S. to further

its goal of international integration and balancing its relations with the major

powers. If all goes well during President Sang’s visit to Washington, the foundations

will be laid for a potential visit by President Obama to Hanoi in October when he

attends the East Asia Summit in nearby Brunei. This visit would provide the stage for

Vietnam to announce it was joining the TPP and for both sides to announce

agreement on a comprehensive partnership agreement.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam & U.S. Presidents to meet at The

White House,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief , July 23, 2013. Thayer

Consultancy Background Briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and

other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially

registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.



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thayer vietnam & u.s. presidents to meet at the white house

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