thayer regional outlook forum power point slides
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Positioning ASEAN
between
Global Powers
Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
14th Re ional Outlook Forum
January 5, 2012
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China’s military build up
‐
U.S. regional engagement
ASEAN‐centric security cooperation
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’
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C i n a s mi itary
ui
up
and South China Sea
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Naval
Exercises
China
Sea
2010‐11
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Strategic Implications
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Woody
Island
Fier Cross Reef
Mischief
Reef
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‐
•
• Focus on transnational security issues
• Support for CBMs but not Preventive
• Lukewarm support combined naval
exerc ses• Regional security treaty stillborn
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• ‘ ’
2007
• Lack of transparency in military build up
•
• Assertiveness in South China Sea
• Self ‐help
•
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3. U.S. Regional Engagement
Anderson Air Force Base Guam
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U M c gan
USS Florida
Three Nuclear Submarines Surface in July 2010 –Pusan, South Korea; Subic Bay, Philippines and
,
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‐
•
– ZOPFAN (1971)
–
– SEANWFZ (1995)
• s centra ty n secur ty a a rs
– ASEAN Regional Forum
– East Asia
Summit
– ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus
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ASEAN‐centric Security Cooperation
ASEAN ARF ASEAN +
ADMM
• ADSOM ISM MS
ADMM Plus
• EWG MS
• Service Chiefs
APSC
• AMF AMF Plus?
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5. Positioning ASEAN etween
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•
transmitted to
Southeast
Asia
’
unilateral action by a major power
• ASEAN ea ers nee to issue po itica gui ance
to their Defence Ministers
• ASEAN Defence Ministers
need
to
direct
subordinates to address maritime security
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Southeast Asia’s Maritime Domain
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• ‐
China a misplaced
priority
and non‐claimants
• T is approac prevents ASEAN rom a opting
a common policy
• China able
to
play
on
differences
and
delay
• Code of Conduct for SCS too restrictive
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Code of Conduct for Southeast Asia’s
Maritime Domain
•
– Security of
maritime
domain
is
indivisible
–
South China Sea
• Enhance unity and cohesion to promote
reg ona
autonomy an
s centra ty
• COC Southeast Asia’s Maritime Domain
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•
• Claims to
sovereignty
and
sovereign
rights
• Framewor pen ing sett ement
•Without
prejudice
• Reject threat or use of force
•
• Reinforce ASEAN corporate and legal identity
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•
with international
law
– Islands –v– features and rocks
• nego a on a s agree o ar ra on
• Demilitarise features in South China Sea
• Coast Guard
to
provide
security
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•
• Disputes settlement
mechanism
– n er o t ca ecur ty ommun ty
Council
• a ogue par ners an o er s a e o ers
should agree to abide by COC SEA
• ASEAN should
streamline
regional
architecture
and exert leadership on maritime security
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Global Powers
Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
14th Regional Outlook
Forum
Januar 5 2012