tharakan's april 30 presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Biofuels in AsiaKey Trends and Implications
ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program
Pradeep Tharakan
Asia’s Future Round TableBangkok, 30-31 March, 2009
Growth in Transport Fuel Demand and Implications
• Transport demand to increase 15 – 350% by 2030.• Fossil fuels currently contribute 5 – 48% of total particulate matter in Asian cities.• Biofuels are roughly 3% of current transport demand in developing Asia (1% globally).
Report Findings
Boom (2004-2005) and Slump (2007-2008)• Introduction of targets and incentives in the US and EU
• Asia starts to produce biofuels for export and countries create targets/mandates of their own
• Current feedstock and oil prices erode producer profitability – a current slump
Study Context
-
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
90,000
As ia World As ia World2004 2008
Million Liters
Ambitious Targets and Mandates Set
Report Findings
Country Ethanol Target Biodiesel Target
China 10 MMT by 2020 2 MMT by 2020
India 20% by 2017 20% by 2017
Indonesia 20% by 2015 10% by 2010
Malaysia na 5% by 2009
Philippines 10% by 2011 2% by 2009
Thailand 10% by 2011 10% by 2012
Vietnam 500 ML by 2020 50 ML by 2020
In other words…INDONESIA (Ethanol)
• CURRENT: 215 Thousand kL/year;
• 2010: 4 million kL/yr
• 2025: 17.3 million kL/yr
INDONESIA (Biodiesel)
• CURRENT: 2.9 Million kL/year;
• 2010: 5 million kL/yr
• 2025: 25 million kL/yr
• INDIA – TO MEET 20% NEED FOR FUEL BY 2017
Scope and Objectives
Life cycle assessment of biofuels
Indicative Ranges of Net Energy and GHG Balances of Biofuels from Selected Biofuels Feedstocks without Land Use Change
Crop Energy Balance* GHG Savings**
Sugarcane -0.6 to 0.8 MJ 78–133 %Sweet Sorghum -0.6 to -0.3 MJ 67–133 %Cellulosic Ethanol -0.2 to 0.4 MJ 67–111 %Corn 0.4 to 1.2 MJ 11–56 %Oil Palm -0.3 to 0 MJ 122–156 %Jatropha -0.5 to 0.4 MJ 100 –144 %Coconut -0.1 to 0.4 MJ 56–86 %
* By way of comparison, the energy balance of fossil fuels is 1.2 MJ of fossil fuel inputs to produce 1 MJ of energy output. Therefore, biofuels with net energy balances of <1.2 MJ produce net energy savings compared to fossil fuels.** GHG savings are relative to fossil fuels
Report Findings
Carbon payback analysis
Report Findings
• Carbon Debt
• Carbon Payback Time
Years
Impacts on air, soil, and water quality and quantity• Severe water shortages
projected for India and China – may not support biofuels production.
• Reduction in CO, particulates and volatile organics but ozone and NOx are increased
• Water quality impacted by synthetic fertilizer run-off and waste water from processing
Report Findings
Biodiversity impactsSugarcane (0.5 Mil ha)
Oil Palm (3 Mil ha)
HCV Land in Borneo
• High density of species in rainforests of Malaysia and Indonesia
• Peatlands• Indonesia has
recently lifted ban on peatlands
• Poor governance
• Indirect loss of forest (e.g. timber extraction, forest fires) Sources: WWF and
government of Indonesia
Report Findings
Oil Palm Expansion – An almost certain outcomeSource : Oil World 2007a b Only for the 7 major oils
Demand for Edible Oil
Demand 2007 Demand 2050 Plantation 2007
Plantation 2050
121 Mt (37 Mt) 240 (120 Mt) 11 Mha +12 Mha
Source : Crowley (2009)
Social Impacts
• Smallholder schemes have shown mixed results small-scale systems preferable
• Employment potential needs to balanced with efficiency and mechanization Potential problems supplying the infrastructure for
plantation expansion (e.g. jatropha and oil palm expansion in Indonesia)
• Large-scale biofuels can result in infringements on indigenous peoples and labor rightsneed enforcement of rights, avenues for conflict resolution
and participation mechanisms
From global transport fuels to decentralized energy – from Cars to People • More than half a billion people in Asia lack access to
modern electricity• Negative environmental, economic, and social
impacts from large-scale biofuels decentralized energy using non-food crops can reduce soil
erosion, improve soil fertility and improve water quality and reduce deforestation with careful planning and management
• Biofuels on a smaller, decentralized scale can provide energy for cooking and transport, and electricity
• Biofuels for decentralized energy can provide greater social benefits than biofuels for transport.
Report Findings
Future Priority Areas
• Policy Development Needs• Support for Sustainability Standards and Certification• Support scale-up of decentralized biofuels• Assess and map land resources• Support agronomy research and crop improvement• Tech Transfer on cellulosic ethanol• Technical Assistance on life cycle analysis
Background• 3-year program, launched Oct 2006• Active in 6 largest developing Asian economies:
China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam• USAID-led program with additional funding from Dept. of State (APP)• Areas of focus: Cleaner Coal, CFLs, Clean Energy Finance, and now
biofuels.