thames and sea level rise - wordpress.com• thames has high risk compared with other cities and...
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• Risks For Thames -Groundwater and Coastal Flooding
• Comparison with Dunedin
• Latest Government Guidance
• Thames Has High Risk Compared With Other Cities and Towns
• We need to Plan for this “slowly unfolding red zone”
Thames and Sea Level Rise
Presentation to Thames Community Board 6 November 2017
Denis Tegg – www.teggtalk.wordpress.com
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Temperatures and Sea Are Rising Faster
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Tararu Tidal Gauge 2011 – 2017 Sea Level Rise 10mm per year?
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Sea Level Rise Projections
Ministry for Environment 2017 US Climate Science ReportNovember 2017
Based on IPCC 2014 Based on Latest Research to 2017
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Relative to 2000, globally the sea isvery likely to rise:-▪ 0.1m – 0.2m by 2030 (*locked in)▪ 0.2m – 0.4m by 2050 (*locked in)▪ 0.3 – 1.3m by 2100 – up to 2.5m is
“plausible”
* “future pathways have little effect in first half of this century”
November 2017Very Latest Projections
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Dunedin’s Groundwater Issues – Otago Regional Council
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Dunedin Investigates Overseas Groundwater Solutions
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No direct sea flooding - just risk of rising groundwater:-• 0.3 m of sea level rise requires localised pumping –
anticipated 2040• 0.8 m of sea level rise requires interception of all sea
water at coastal margins
South Dunedin
Beca Report 2014
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South Dunedin GroundwaterPonding Areasanticipated by 2040
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Sea Level Rise Poses Two Threats to Thames
Rising GroundwaterInitial threat is rising groundwater level on Thames’ foreshore, forced up by rising sea level/storm surges
Coastal FloodingRising sea levels will lead to more frequent extreme storm surge events and eventually to permanent flooding (inundation)
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Thames - Present Day King Tides
Through storm water drains From sea
On the foreshore groundwater is 0.3m – 1.2m above sea leveland rises and falls with the tide * *Richmond Villas site
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WRC Inundation Tool maps to hereplus sea level rise
Waikato Regional Council Inundation Toolhttp://coastalinundation.waikatoregion.govt.nz/
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Thames with present daystorm tide and 0.2m of
sea level rise (2030?) mayhave more extensivegroundwater affected areas than Dunedinwith 0.3m of sea level rise – (2040 ?)
http://coastalinundation.waikatoregion.govt.nz/
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Thames with present day maximum tide and 0.5mof sea level rise but no storm surgeor wave effects
http://coastalinundation.waikatoregion.govt.nz/
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Thames with mid rangestorm tide
and 0.5m ofsea level rise
but no wave effects
http://coastalinundation.waikatoregion.govt.nz/
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Thames with mid rangestorm tide and 1.0m of sea level rise but no wave effects
http://coastalinundation.waikatoregion.govt.nz/
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Present Day1-in-100 YearExtreme Storm TidesBecome a 6-Monthly Event With a 50cm Rise
Daily Event With 1m of Sea Level Rise
Extreme Sea Floods More Frequent
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River Flats or Reclaimed Over Marine Sediment
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Thames Foreshore Is SinkingAdds to Risk of Rising Seas
Location Rate of Settlement
1991 KRTA Report Richmond St
300-500mm since 1977
1995 Frank Millington Burke St
500mm
Ferguson Drive 16mm a year
1997 TCDC Memo NW Corner Moanataiari subdivision
Slumped 1m since 1968
2017 Richmond Apartment block site
13mm a year
Sea Level Rise is Added to Subsidence Rate to CalculateLocal Sea Level Rise
5mm + 5mm =10mm a year - 0.5m in 50 years 10mm + 10mm = 20mm a year - 1.0m in 50 years
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Update on Climate Change Adaptation work program
• Updated to include latest science on sea level
rise
• 285 pages - substantial new content on:• Risk assessment
• Community engagement
• Adaptive planning
• Outlines a ten-step decision-making process
that councils and communities can follow when
planning for the effects of climate change on
coastal hazards.
2017 MfE Guidance to Councils
The Guidance should be adopted as Council’s Strategy on Coastal Hazards
Draft copy available –https://www.greens.org.nz/sites/default/files/CH_Guide_Draft4-webversion.pdf
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Guidelines provide minimum transitional values provided to assist councils in the short-term.
Major new developments or intensification of existing development (Category A) need to consider a high sea-level rise value of 1.9 metres and timeframe to 2150
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1.9 m Category A :-
➢ greenfield development➢ change in land use➢ intensification➢ major new infrastructure
How will this effect new major developmentwest of red line?
< 1.9m line
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How does Thames compare with other cities and towns?
Figures are for buildings only Do not include the cost of infrastructure - roads, bridges, or below ground assets such as storm water and wastewater.
The building replacementcosts are based on NZ$2011 figures
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Building use count for Thamesfor the 0 – 0.5 m zone
Building count comparisonfor the 0 – 0.5 m zone
Residential 176 Commercial 1
Industrial 16 Critical 0
Community 17 Other 107
Thames 302Tauranga 141
Nelson 125 Lower Hutt 102Whakatane 495
Total 302
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Count of buildings in the 0m – 1.5m above sea level zoneThames is ranked the 8th at riskurban area in New Zealand.
Whitianga is 14th
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Building use count for Thamesfor the 0 – 1.5 m zone
Building use count for Thames Coromandel District
for the 0 – 1.5 m zone
Residential 863 Commercial 108
Industrial 102 Critical 7
Community 17 Other 499
Residential 2,314Commercial 142
Industrial 278 Critical 10
Community 35Other 1180
Total 1,596 Total 3,959
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On a buildings per capita per town basis Napier and Thames are the most at risk urban areas in New Zealand.
Whitianga is third.
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Building replacementcost in the0m – 0.5m above sea level zoneThames is rankedthe 8th at riskurban area in New Zealand.
(NZ $2011)
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Building replacementcost in the 0m – 1.5m above sea level zoneThames is rankedthe 13th at riskurban area in New Zealand.
Whitianga is 16th
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Replacement Cost $2011of Buildings for Thames
0m to 0.5m $43,868,520
0.5m to 1.0m $192,707,219
1.0m to 1.5m $148,777,225
0m to 1.5m $384,752,964
0m to 3.0m $557,533,142
Figures do not include:-• land value• water and waste systems• power, telecom, fibre• sewage treatment plant • roads• airfield
= $0.4 billion
= $0.6 billion
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Building Replacement Comparison -Local Authorities - 0m to 1.5m
Thames-Coromandel $857,036,722
Tauranga City $778,073,512
Far North District $121,596,189
Whangarei District $570,712,749
Nelson City $643,255,071
Dunedin City $1,529,905,764
Auckland $2,184,788,932
Building Replacement Comparison -Towns/Cities - 0m to 1.5m
Thames $384,752,964Tauranga $809,435,870
Whangarei $390,618,072
Motueka $398,119,992
Nelson $713,845,001
Whakatane $519,744,902
Central Auckland Zone $891,027,951
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77% of lowest lying roads in NZ are in Waikato and most of these in Hauraki/Coromandel
“In the lowest-lying 0–0.25 m elevation band,720 km of road network (mostly local roads) was
identified nationally.
Approximately 77% (561 km) of these roads are located in the Waikato ..….
emphasising that most roads in this region hug the coast”
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Road Length Comparison -Local Authorities - 0m to 1.5m
Thames-Coromandel 102.6 km
Tauranga City 30.0 km
Hauraki 685.6 km
Whangarei District 37.2 km
Whakatane 89.3 km
Dunedin City 116 km
Tasman 110.9 km
Road Length Comparison -Towns/Cities - 0m to 1.5m
Thames 18.7 kmDunedin 72 km
Whangarei 18.8 km
Christchurch 22.6 km
Nelson 40.6 km
Wellington 12.5 km
Central Auckland 15.2 km
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Nationwide
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Thames has a very strong case for funding and advice from Central Government and LGNZ
Our community, TCDC and our MP need to combine forces to ensure Thames gets the help it needs
Dunedin Thames we have a problem
Thames has a GroundwaterProblem PLUS a Direct Sea FloodingProblem
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New Government Has Promised Help
Climate Change will be a top priority
“Commence an urban redevelopment and adaptation programme, with a focus on urban
communities subject to sea level rise – working with those communities, their local authorities and other
stakeholders.” *
* Labour Party Manifesto 2017
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Actions for Community Board
• ask Council to sign LGNZ Climate Change Declaration• make Board submission on Coastal Management
Strategy – adopt MfE Guidance, and ask Council to provide funds in 2018-2028 LTP for :-
➢ urgent hazard mapping and risk assessment➢ public engagement➢ include sea flood hazards in District Plan➢ Climate Change Adaption Plan
• support Council lobbying for Government help
Lead
ers
hip
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Actions for District Council
• sign LGNZ Climate Change Declaration• adopt 2017 MfE Guidance as Coastal Hazard Strategy• ensure 2018-2028 LTP has funds for:-
➢ urgent mapping and expert risk assessment➢ engagement with community➢ review District Plan/LIMs➢ adaption planning including an Adaption Plan
and Opportunities Plan• lobby new Government for funds/expertise
Lead
ers
hip
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“Slowly Unfolding Red Zone”
Denial/Inaction leads to …No Need to Panic
But it’s Reckless to
Delay Careful
Planning and Adaption