thailand financial governance
DESCRIPTION
Thailand Financial Governance. by Dr.Somjai Phagaphasvivat. Thailand GDP Growth Forecast (%). 7.1. 6.3. 4.5. Note : - Sourse : http :// www . bot . or . th / bothomepage / databank / EconData / Thai_Key / Thai_KeyE . asp. International Trade of Thailand. Bil.US$. 2007 ’ Mar. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Thailand Thailand Financial Financial
GovernanceGovernance by Dr.Somjai Phagaphasvivatby Dr.Somjai Phagaphasvivat
Thailand GDP Thailand GDP Growth Forecast Growth Forecast
(%)(%)11.28.6 8.1 8.3 9.0 9.2
5.9
-1.4
-10.2
4.4 4.82.2
5.3 5.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
7.17.16.36.34.54.5
Note : -Note : -
Sourse :Sourse : httphttp://://wwwwww..botbot..oror..thth//bothomepagebothomepage//databankdatabank//EconEconDataData//Thai_KeyThai_Key//Thai_KeyEThai_KeyE..aspasp
International International Trade of Thailand Trade of Thailand
2.32.2-8.5
1.43.7
-10.2-9.5 -7.8-8.5-8.7-14.6-16.1 -4.6
12.29.2 5.4 2.4 2.7
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Export
Import
Balance
Bil.US$
Note : -Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab52e.asp
2
0
2
0
0
7
0
7
’’
Mar
Mar
Export Value : % Export Value : % change (US$)change (US$)
25.521.6
17.5
15.0
18.2
4.8
13.4
-6.8
7.4
23.8
13.8
14.3
22.2
-1.9
3.8
19.5
-7.1
24.8
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Note : Mar/2007 = 19.0
Sources : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab52e.asp
Avg’89-95 : 19.86Avg’96-01 : 2.78
77
Import Value : % Import Value : % change (US$)change (US$)
15.7
-13.4
17.4
4.6
16.9
-33.8
0.66.018.412.4
-3.0
31.331.9
25.7 25.9
7.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Note : Mar/2007 = 0.5
Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab52e.asp
Current Account Current Account Balance Balance (% of GDP)(% of GDP)
3.3
-4.5
1.61.7
3.74.4
7.610.2
12.7
-2.0
-7.9-7.9-5.4-4.9-5.5
-7.5-8.3-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Note: -Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab52e.asp
88
Current Account Current Account BalanceBalance
2.8 3.2
-7.9
4.84.75.1
9.312.5
14.3
-3.1
-14.4-13.2
-7.8-6.1-6.1-7.4-7.1
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
(billions of US$)
99
Note : Mar/ 2007 = 2.2Mar/ 2007 = 2.2Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab52e.asp
Thailand Thailand International International
ReservesReserves
14.218.421.1
25.430.2
37.038.7
26.929.534.732.633.0
38.942.1
49.852.1
66.9 70.8'Mar
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
Bil.US$
Note : Monthly UpdateSource : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab49e.asp 11
00
Thailand External Thailand External DebtDebt
29,30837,87843,621
52,107
64,867
100,832108,742
109,276105,062
95,051
79,71567,509
59,45951,78351,31252,040
59,935 59,334*Feb
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
Mil.US$
Note : Monthly UpdateSource : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab50e.asp
11
11
Thailand External Thailand External DebtDebt
36,02640,558*Feb
40,06339,13840,87947,54054,12065,021
75,51270,98260,999
48,43435,688
76,641
24,70722,48718,89129,473
18,776*Feb
18,20616,01412,174
19,90411,91913,389
14,694
19,53928,421
38,29447,74352,398
29,17922,634
18,91415,391
10,417
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
Short
Long
Mil.US$
Note : Monthly UpdateSource : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab50e.asp
11
22
External Debt per GDP External Debt per GDP
40.144.444.346.7
51.7
69.165.964.8
69.972.9
66.7
56.148.8
40.335.732.533.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0(%)
Note : Yearly UpdateSource : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab50e.asp
11
33
Thailand Foreign Thailand Foreign Direct InvestmentDirect Investment
64,69551,38953,69143,81233,241
49,88757,472
117,696
209,888
134,592115,286
224,842
147,256
213,723198,880
299,129
361,174
32,569*Feb
050,000
100,000
150,000200,000
250,000
300,000350,000
400,000
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
Mil.Baht
Note : Monthly UpdateSource : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab60e.asp
11
44
Public DebtPublic Debt
657,700689,900
892,6001,212,300
2,502,773
1,955,4392,025,511
2,719,4592,835,5193,048,704
3,158,168
2,719,459
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1995'Sep 1997'Sep 1999'Sep 2001'Sep 2003'Sep 2005'Sep
(Mil.Baht)(Mil.Baht)
11
88
Source : กรมบั�ญชี�กลาง กระทรวงการคล�ง (ข้�อม�ล ค.ศ - .1 9 9 5 1 9 9 8 ) : http://www.pdmo.mof.go.th (ข้�อม�ล ค.ศ -. 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 6 )
Public Debt (% of Public Debt (% of GDP)GDP)
16.2 15.319.2
40.6
54.2357.34
39.48
51.3647.81 46.36 43.89
38.28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995'Sep 1997'Sep 1999'Sep 2001'Sep 2003'Sep 2005'Sep
(%)
11
99
Source : กรมบั�ญชี�กลาง กระทรวงการคล�ง (ข้�อม�ล ค.ศ - .1 9 9 5 1 9 9 8 ) : http://www.pdmo.mof.go.th (ข้�อม�ล ค.ศ -. 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 6 )
Public Debt Summary
Debt Debt OutstandingOutstanding
June June 19971997
September September 19991999
ChangeChangess
1. Central Government 1.1 Domestic Debt1.2 External Debt
176,50040,917135583
959,685598,640361,045
783,185557,723225,462
2. State Enterprises2.1 Guaranteed2.2 Non-Guaranteed
553,079n/a
911,212403,808
358,133n/a
3 . Financial InstitutionsDevelopment Fund3.1 Liabilities3.2 Contingent liabilities
1,047,673
865,123182,550
959,586
814,595144,991
(88,087)
(50,528 )(37,559 )
4. Bank of ThailandForeign debt
150 520,692 520,542
Unit : Unit : million million bahtbaht
Sources : Public Debt Management Office, Office of Sources : Public Debt Management Office, Office of State Enterprise and Government Securities, State Enterprise and Government Securities, Financial Institution Development Fund, and Bank Financial Institution Development Fund, and Bank of Thailandof Thailand
Changes in Central Changes in Central Government Domestic Government Domestic
DebtDebt Amount1.New debt incurred1.1 Fiscalization of FIDF debt
12. Statutory capital support bonds Tier – 1 Tier – 2
579,321500,000
35,5003,82140,000
2. Principal repayment
21,598
Total change 557,723
Unit : Unit : million million bahtbaht
Sources : Public Debt Sources : Public Debt Management OfficeManagement Office
Significant External Significant External Loans DisbursedLoans Disbursed
Disbursed Amount
1.Adjustment loans from multilateral sources
World Bank Asian Development
Bank
2.Loans under Miyazawa Plan
3.Social Investment Project Loan
World Bank Japan Bank for
International Cooperation
1,350600
879
5226
Unit : Unit : million million
USDUSD
Sources : Public Debt Sources : Public Debt Management OfficeManagement Office
Thailand NPLs : Thailand NPLs : Financial Institution Financial Institution
GroupGroup2,674,533
2,094,425
863,663
477,405770,393641,846598,563477,071
236,78723,9918*Mar
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1998 1999* 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Note : * including New IBFs and Credit Foncier Companies since July 1999
Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/Financial_Institutions/Npl_Fi/Npl_Fi_E.htm
Mil.Baht
**JAN 2006 : Beginning data at end-December 2002 onwards, NPL data means loan classified as substandard, doubtful, doubtful of loss and loss, including the amount of doubtful of loss loan which has already been written off earlier but has not yet been written back.
22
22
NPLs Outstanding NPLs Outstanding - - Classified Classified by Financial Institution Groupby Financial Institution Group
Budgetary Expenditure Budgetary Expenditure (% of GDP)(% of GDP)
17.05
18.24
19.51
17.9317.7917.49
17.76
18.83
17.04
17.8 17.717.5
15.5016.0016.5017.0017.5018.00
18.5019.0019.5020.00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Note : * 2003 : GDP forecast by NESDB,15 September 2003 **2004 : GDP = 6,263,700 Mil.Baht according to Budget DocumentSource : http://dw.mof.go.th/foc/gfs/index.html
(%)
22
66
Budgetary Deficit or Budgetary Deficit or SurplusSurplus
(Fiscal Year : Oct-Sep)(Fiscal Year : Oct-Sep)
Note : Update (Since -1 9 9 5 2 0 0 3 )Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab33e.asp
(Millions of Baht)(Millions of Baht)
22
55