thai oil public company limited...2014/02/18 · (tpx 75:mitsui 25) 11 jun 13 produce & distribute...

Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q4 & FY/2013 Analyst Meeting

18 February 2014

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Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is intended

solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this

material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not

read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in

reliance upon it.

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VISION A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL

COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC

MISSION

• To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment

• To create a high-performance organization that promotes

teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainability

• To emphasis good Corporate Governance and commit to Corporate

Social Responsibility

VALUES

Corporate Vision, Mission and Values

Professionalism

Ownership & Commitment

Social Responsibility Integrity Teamwork & Collaboration Initiative

Vision Focus

Excellent Striving

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Corporate Governance Policy

Corporate Governance Policy

The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral

principles, equitable treatment to all

stakeholders and perform their duties for

the company’s interest with dedication,

integrity, and transparency.

Roles and Responsibilities for

Stakeholders

• Truthfully report company’s situation and

future trends to all stakeholders equally

on a timely manner.

• Shall not exploit the confidential

information for the benefit of related

parties or personal gains.

• Shall not disclose any confidential

information to external parties.

CG Channels

Should you discover any

ethical wrongdoing that is

not compliance to CG policies

or any activity that could

harm the Company’s interest,

please inform:

Corporate Management Office Thai Oil Public Company Limited 555/1 Energy Complex Building A

11F, Vibhavadi Rangsit Road,

Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900

[email protected] http://www.thaioilgroup.com

+66-0-2797-2999 ext. 7312-5

+66-0-2797-2973

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Agenda

Business Highlights

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2013 : Business Highlights

Economic / Industry Highlights

• Global economy slowdown yet US/ EU/ China econ

data showed improved sign by the year-end

• Uncertainties in Middle East and North Africa

• Weaker Rupiah in Q4 led to falling Indonesian

import petroleum products demand

• Delay of new PX supplies whereas growing BZ

arbitrage demand to West due to shale gas impact

• Oversupply of Lube pressured its price vs. weaker

bitumen demand in China & Indonesia

• Sluggish oil demand growth in AP

• Crude supply disruption supporting its price

resulted in Stock Gain

• Softer GRM tracking along SIN GRM

• Improved Aromatics margins

• Maintained Lube margins

Financial Highlights Business Highlights

• BOI privilege on tax exemption of emission & fuel

efficiency projects ~640 MB

• Depreciation of THB against USD ~2.2 THB/USD

causing FX loss at ~3,111 MB (mainly unrealized loss)

• Additional gain from commodities hedging~1,292

MB and gain on CCS~230 MB

• Successfully launched USD 1,000 bn bond, 10/30

years, at a coupon rate of 3.625% p.a. / 4.875% p.a.

• Affirmed credit ratings : Fitch: AA-(tha), S&P: BBB,

Moody’s: Baa1

Safety / Reliability / Flexibility / Efficiency

• TOP: 102% utilization rate, capture domestic sales 85%,

• TPX/ TLB: Optimized run at 89% / 102%

• GPSC: increased capital and issued RO shares

• TM: acquired 2 Aframaxs and 3 Crew boats

• TET: SAPTHIP/MCE efficiently operate due to rising gasohol

demand after ULG 91 phase out, UBE COD in Jan 13

New Set Up Companies

LABIX

(TPX 75:Mitsui 25) 11 Jun 13

Produce & distribute LAB which is an

intermediate feedstock to produce surfactant

TOP Nautical Star

(TM 50: Nathalin 50) 2 Aug 13

Buy vessels for crude, feedstock & petroleum

product storage and transportation services

TOP SPP 26 Dec 13 Operate 2 SPPs (239 MW)

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IR Magazine Awards – South East Asia

2013

• Winner of BEST IN ENERGY SECTOR

• Finalist in GRAND PRIX FOR BEST

OVERALL INVESTOR RELATIONS

(Small or Mid-Cap) (in SEA)

• Finalist in BEST INVESTOR

RELATIONS BY A THAI COMPANY

DJSI

• Member of DJSI Emerging Market 2013

• Gold Class Sustainability Award 2014

Thailand TOP Awards 2014

• TOP Management Award by

Business+ Magazine

Alpha Southeast Asia 2013

• The Strongest Commitment to

Sustainable Energy in SEA

• The Strongest Adherence to

Corporate Governance

• The Best Strategic CSR

Thai Energy Awards 2013

• Outstanding Renewable

Power Award under the

category of Non-Grid

Connect renewable

Electricity Generation

Project (Off-Grid)

SET Awards 2013

• Best Social Responsibility Award

• Top Corporate Governance Report

Award

Annual Platts Top 250 Asia

Awards 2013

Global Energy Company

Rankings

• Rank 38th in Asia

• Rank 136th in the world

Asian Excellence Recognition

Awards 2013

• Best Investor Relations & Best CSR

CSRI Recognition 2013

• Best Social Responsibility

Award (CSR Awards)

Sustainability Report Award 2013

• Best Sustainability Report under

the category of Environmental,

Social and Governance (ESG)

Asian Company

Secretary of the Year

2013

Awards & Recognitions

Best of Asia

Recognition Awards

2013

• Asia’s Outstanding

Company on CG

-9-

4,267

-1,261

7,770

14,777

3,342

1,247

2,624

-2,457

NP w/o Stock G/L Stock G/(L) LCM

2013: Unrealized FX Loss Caused Softer Net Profit

Top Group Net Profit

Unit : million THB

*redeemed BOI privilege for tax exemption on environmental projects in Q3/13 = 1,021 MB, Q4/13 = (382) MB, FY/13 = 640 MB and FY/12 = 1,171 MB ** Cracking SIN GRM from Reuters based on product yield of LPG 3%, MOGAS 31%, Naphtha 7%, Jet 18%, GO 16%, FO 22%. Adj Cracking SG GRM assuming 3% F&L of Dubai crude cost

Gross Refining Margin - GRM

Gross Integrated Margin - GIM

Q4/13 Q3/13

Before tax

(14)* MB 7,609* MB 10,394* MB

FY/13 FY/12

12,320* MB

$/bbl Q3/13 Q4/13 FY/13 FY/12

Marketing GRM 5.0 1.9 4.3 5.3

Stock Gain/(Loss) 4.0 1.5 0.8 (0.8)

Accounting GRM 9.0 3.4 5.1 4.5

$/bbl Q3/13 Q4/13 FY/13 FY/12

Aromatics 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7

Lube base 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9

Marketing GIM 7.9 4.9 6.8 7.6

Accounting GIM 11.7 6.4 7.6 6.9

Cracking SIN GRM** 5.4 4.2 6.1 7.5

Adj Cracking SG GRM ** 2.2 1.0 3.0 4.2

Performance Analysis

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101 111 107 106 116 106 106 107 108 101 106 107 20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Avg. Mar’12

122 $/bbl

Avg. Jun’12

94 $/bbl

Avg. Dec’10

89 $/bbl

Avg. Dec’11

106 $/bbl

Avg. Dec’13

108 $/bbl

Avg. Mar’13

105 $/bbl Avg. Dec’12

106 $/bbl

Avg. Sep’12

111 $/bbl Avg . Jun’13

100 $/bbl

Avg . Sep’13

108 $/bbl

Q4/13: Lack of Supply…Incessantly Increase in Crude Price

Supply Disruption in Middle East & North Africa

Concern over stimulus package

Refining

$/bbl

Q1/11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4

106 109

Dubai Crude Oil Price

105.2 $/bbl

as of 12 Feb

Q1/13 Q4

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

108 107 106 108 104

Q2

• Uncertainty of QE tapering: FED decided to taper its

QE policy by $10 billion per month and wind down

steadily through 2014

• Oil Sanction in Iran: Iranian oil exports are still below 1 MBD

• Violence in South Sudan: oil production has fallen to 200 KBD

• Ongoing supply disruption in Libya: due to protest of militia

and east state, major oil ports still be closed

• Heavy snow in Egypt: a snow fall for the first time in 112 years.

Limiting export supplies from the oil as they need to stockpile

inventories for domestic heating usage.

Q3

105

• US Crude Stock dropped sharply: after refinery

in the U.S. came back from maintenance

• Supportive U.S. economic data: Unemployment

rate low of 7%. Improve in econ data of

Manufacturing, labor market and housing market

Supportive US Economic and Demand Growth

Expected Oil Production Increase

• OPEC keep oil production at 30 MMBD

• Higher Non-OPEC supply growth: speculate by

fast‐rising production from US tight oil

• Highest U.S. oil production : EIA expect U.S. oil

production increase from 8 MMBD to 8.5 MMBD

http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=dk72RKxw1vT7jM&tbnid=3vaDn2PzGEIn2M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.stockmarkettodayblog.com/2013/06/20/america-next-year-or-will-stop-qe-editorial-china-need-to-guard-against-financial-risks.html&ei=fm5mUvOjB8WVrge4oIHQBw&bvm=bv.55123115,d.aGc&psig=AFQjCNFp4fRrLwBAETDLoWC97CdPwjy7JQ&ust=1382531048331868http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=s-DKR7hNGibazM&tbnid=S96JybV2jwH5YM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.iraqenergy.org/news/?detailof=4069&content=Iraq-Aims-to-Join-OPEC-Quota-System-in-2014,-Official-Says-&ei=rD3zUp7BGoOYtAa7v4GABg&bvm=bv.60983673,bs.1,d.bmk&psig=AFQjCNFU1pbjj98QFXxmwSeQ0JtaeNPrEg&ust=1391759089045549http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=Gd9Gpw0OyB6baM&tbnid=hJ7A3kItV2pQBM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://satoil.kz/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/&ei=Cz_zUuzgIOPoywOFtYHACw&bvm=bv.60983673,bs.1,d.bmk&psig=AFQjCNGO5lJEWW-RMKV5kposZyd4m_rvig&ust=1391759304660234http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=8sdUmKJo-Un8fM&tbnid=YhfHtfXEWdQIsM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.energypress.gr/news/petrelaio/IEA:-Meiwthhkan-kata-1-3-ekat.-barelia-ta-apothemata-argoy&ei=HEHzUpiJOoiGrQfusoAg&bvm=bv.60983673,bs.1,d.bmk&psig=AFQjCNGRa2tZF5-j7b0Jnl43EC5MTupYfw&ust=1391759992777196http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=6y-CTToPmgfIaM&tbnid=M6mP21ZTYxSINM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.bodyenlightenment.me/be-healthy&ei=uUHzUou8D6PMsQSW4YDoAg&bvm=bv.60983673,bs.1,d.bmk&psig=AFQjCNFqjN_oy-qevAUctTs3AisiUO_5jw&ust=1391760087656135

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Q4/13: Fallen Gasoline Spread…Weaker GRM

Refining

-0.5 -1.3 -2.4 -9.0 -7.3

-3.6

-10.7 -10.4

-3.3 -8.0

4.0 4.6

7.7 5.2 6.6

3.6 5.0

1.9 5.3

4.3 15.6 16.0

20.2 19.2 20.3 15.3 17.0 17.3 17.8 17.5

14.3 13.9 15.9 13.4 18.4

14.6 12.4 9.2

14.4 13.7

-39.1 -41.7 -46.7 -32.6 -38.9 -41.6 -43.5 -35.0 -42.5 -41.3

+High demand in the region for traveling season +Heating demand from Europe and North Asia +Less than expected Chinese export due to an

explosion incident in Qingdao

Q1TD 12 Feb (Unit: $/bbl) LPG - DB

ULG95 - DB

- Falling demand in Indonesia as Rupiah

depreciation preventing import activity

- Peak global refinery run in Q4

- Weak demand in Europe

JET - DB + Improved travelling demand in holiday season

+ Stockpiled product for winter season

+ Heating fuel demand for kerosene

Diesel - DB

HSFO - DB

+North Asian winter demand for power generation

+Lower export from the ME during winter season

+Lower arbitrage due to depressed EU refinery margin

Gross Refining Margin - GRM

-29.7

14.1

17.8

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/12 FY/13

16.4 15.3 19.3 17.5 19.6 16.8 17.3 17.7 17.1 17.9

17.9

-7.5

• LPG price = 76% CP price + 24%*333 $/ton.

A decline of

Gasoline spread

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/12 FY/13

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101 111 107 106 116 106 106 107 108 101 106 107 20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Refining

Dubai Crude Oil Price

(Unit: $/bbl)

Q1/11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/12 Q2 Q3

106

Q4

Avg. Dec’11

106 $/bbl Avg. Dec’10

89 $/bbl

Avg. Jun’12

94 $/bbl

Avg. Dec’12

106 $/bbl

Avg. Mar’12

122 $/bbl

Avg. Sep’12

111 $/bbl

109

Avg. Mar’13

105 $/bbl

Q1/13 Q2

Avg. Jun’13

100 $/bbl

Q3

Avg. Sep’13

108 $/bbl

105.2 $/bbl

as of 12 Feb

Q4

105

Avg. Dec’13

108 $/bbl

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/12 FY/13

4.0 4.6

7.7 5.2

6.6

3.6 5.0

1.9 5.3 4.3

Marketing Gross Refining Margin – Marketing GRM

Stock Gain/ (Loss)

Accounting Gross Refining Margin – Accounting GRM

(Unit: $/bbl)

(Unit: $/bbl)

5.2

(10.9)

4.4

(1.9) (1.1) (1.4)

4.0 1.5

(0.8)

0.8

9.2

(6.3)

12.1 3.3 5.5 2.2 9.0

3.4 4.5 5.1

(Unit: $/bbl)

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/12 FY/13

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/12 FY/13

Rising Crude Price…Resulting in Inventory Gain Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

108 107 106 108 104

-14-

27% 13% 7%

32%

29% 32%

41% 58% 61%

Oman Dubai Murban

Short Residue Waxy Gas/Distillates

82%

10%

6% 2%

9%

38%

20%

16%

14%

4%

FY2013 FY 2013

Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

Far East

Local

Middle

East

Sources of

Crude

FY/13

1

Spread over

Dubai (US$/bbl)

-39.8

17.5

17.9

-8.0

13.7

Others

17.7

• Flexibility in crude intake allows diversification of crude types to source cheaper crude

• Flexibility in product outputs by maximizing middle distillates (jet and diesel) by adjusting production mode to capture domestic demand and price premium

• Maximize Platformate production to capture higher margin on aromatics

• Minimize fuel oil output to avoid lower margin products

1. LPG price =

76% CP + 24%*333

$/ton

Refining

LPG

PLATFORMATE

GASOLINE

JET

DIESEL

FUEL OIL

Product

output

Domestic demand for

petroleum products*

*Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy Thailand

4%

41%

11%

16%

27%

FY/13

% S = 0.79

API = 39.7

% S = 1.54

API = 31.2

% S = 2.13

API = 30.4

Crude Assays based on

TOP configuration

Thai Oil is able to diversify its

type of crude intake and product

outputs to maximize demand

and margin

-15-

87% 82% 85%

13% 18% 15%

FY/12 Q4/13 FY/13

Export

Domestic

Healthy Local Demand…High Domestic Sales

40%

13% 9%

1%

20%

16% 2%

Domestic

Jobbers

Q4/13

Sales

Breakdown

Export = 18%

Refinery Intake

(KBD) 278 277

Refining

280

41%

13% 8% 2%

21%

13% 2%

Domestic

Jobbers

FY/13

Sales

Breakdown

Export = 15%

Domestic Oil Demand / Domestic Refinery Intake Domestic Oil Demand

TOP’s Domestic & Export Sales

Domestic Oil Demand

32%

market

shares

2013 Market shares for refined petroleum product1

1 calculate by total sales of refined petroleum products of Thai Oil in 2013 divided by total

sales of petroleum products in Thailand in 2013 excl LPG. Source from EPPO

686 694 640 689 724 698 667 700 678 697

92% 88% 85% 89%

93% 89% 92% 92% 89% 92%*

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 2013

Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export Others Utilization Rate

KBD Utilization = 102%

0 200 400 600 800

1,000

LPG Mogas Jet/Kero Diesel Fuel Oil Total

Demand

2012 2013 KBD

+2 % +7 % +9 %

+2 %

-8 %

+3 %

*including TOP intake (Excluding TOP = 67%)

including LPG from refinery only

-16-

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

(US$/Ton) Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013

P2F -$/ton 138 125 98 139 126 155 127 142 165 147

P2F -$/bbl 18.1 16.3 12.8 18.2 16.4 20.3 16.5 18.6 21.6 19.2

Aromatics Spot Prices and Margins

(US$/Ton) Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013

PX*-ULG95 507 394 414 560 472 559 462 476 445 486

BZ-ULG95 72 84 139 336 158 303 305 249 297 289

123 94 136 126 132 123 134 131

40 43 52 31 54 59 61 62

27 28

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4

TL

BZ

MX

PX

TPX’s Sales & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)

Aromatics Production

Q4/13 FY/13 FY/12

94% 89% 85%

(Unit : KTon)

Aromatics

PX

MX

ULG 95

BZ

TL

Q2 Q1/12 Q4 Q3 Q3

(US$/Ton) 472

158

PX

BZ

343

336

Q1/13 Q2 Q1/14TD(12 Feb)

Paraxylene (PX) - Several PTA producers cut

their productions: Due to PTA

spread below 100 US$/Ton as a

result of soften demand

- Increasing supply: Resumption

of TPPI aromatics plant in

Indonesia (PX 550 KTA)

+Stronger demand from new

PTA plants in China: total

capacity of 6,300 KTA

+Lower feedstock price

following ULG 95 price

+ Tight Supply: Unplanned

shutdown of EU&US refinery

(800 KTA), aromatics plants in

China and Korea (1,000 KTA)

+ Well-remained SM demand:

for festive season in Christmas

& New Year

Benzene (BZ)

445

297

Q4

Q4/13: Distinctive BZ spread…Thriving Margins

559

303

462

305

476

249

*CFR Taiwan

-17-

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

74 66 62 57 72 62 77 66 42 38 32 35 30 32 36 34

89 108 82 88 84 88 98 79

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4

Bitumen

TDAE/Extract

/Slack Wax

Base Oil

(US$/Ton) Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013

P2F -$/ton 132 143 145 120 135 118 132 158 165 144

P2F -$/bbl 20.0 21.7 22.1 18.3 20.5 18.0 20.1 24.0 25.0 21.9

Q4/13: Mild Products Spread…Slightly Softer Margins Base Oil & Bitumen Spot Prices & Margins

(US$/Ton) Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013

500SN-HSFO 500 621 497 460 519 419 494 519 509 485

BITUMEN-HSFO -99 -32 -41 15 -39 -19 -7 -3 -27 -14

TLB’s Sales & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)

Base oil Production

Q4/13 2013 2012

95% 102% 96%

(Unit : KTon)

Lube Base

Lube Base Oil

- Soften Demand: season-ended

engine lubricant replacement &

buyers keep stocks in low level

- Ample supply: from new plant

in China & plant’s resumption in

Taiwan

+Lower feedstock cost following

HSFO price

- Slow demand from Indonesia as projects were finished

- Lower imports from China as high inventories

- Monsoon season in Vietnam prevented road work

+ Supporting Australian demand during their peak

paving season

Bitumen

BITUMEN

500SN

HSFO

TDAE

(US$/Ton)

Q2 Q1/12 Q4 Q3 Q1/14TD(12 Feb) Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4

-39

500 SN

Bitumen

490

-58

419

-19

519 494

-7

509

-27

519

-3

-18-

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/12 FY/13

20.0 21.7 22.1 18.3 18.0 20.1 24.0 25.0 20.5 21.9

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/12 FY/13

3.8 4.4 7.3

4.9 6.4 3.4 4.8 1.8 5.1 4.1

2.1 1.7 1.2

1.8 2.0

1.4 1.9

2.1

1.7 1.8 0.9 1.1

0.9

0.6

0.5

0.8

1.2

1.0 0.9 0.9

6.7 7.2 9.3

7.3 8.8

5.6 7.9

4.9 7.6 6.8

TOP TPX TLB GIM

8.7

-6.0

11.5

3.1 5.3 2.0 8.6

3.3 4.3 4.9

2.1

1.7

1.2

1.8 2.0

1.4

1.9

2.1 1.7 1.8

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.6 0.5

0.8

1.2

1.0 0.9 0.9

11.7

-3.2

13.5

5.6 7.7

4.2

11.7

6.4 6.9 7.6

TOP TPX TLB GIM

Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM

(US$/bbl) 18.1 16.3 12.8

18.2 20.3 16.5 18.6 21.6 16.5 19.2

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/12 FY/13

4.0 4.6 7.7 5.2 6.6

3.6 5.0

1.9

5.3 4.3

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/12 FY/13

Marketing GIM Accounting GIM

Crude

Product to Feed

Product to Feed

Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss)

27% to GIM

60% to GIM

13% to GIM

(US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)

Integrated Margin

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/12 FY/13

-19-

**

Q4/13: Performance Breakdown

PUBLIC

(2,168) 1,359 493 102 60 71 (35) 67 (14)

2,700 468 262 N/A 5 15 46 85 1,939

7,674 297 173 12 11 6 96 58 7,623

NP

∆YoY

∆QoQ

32.39%

holding

74%

holding

Q4/13 Net Profit Breakdown (include stock gain / loss)

Conso.

101% 94% 95% 100% 91%

136%

98% 95% 97% 102% 88% 86% 100%

89%

132%

69%

21%

68%

Q4/13 Q4/12

Acc GRM

($/bbl)

P2F

($/ton)

P2F

($/ton)

Q4/12 3.3 139 120

Q4/13 3.4 165 165

Performance Breakdown

Stock G/(L) 4Q/13* = 1,247 MB

Net Profit excl. stock G/(L)* = (1,261) MB

*before tax

***

** Apply on an equity accounted basis in the consolidated financial statement.(GPSC has been hold by TOP 11.88% and TP 27.71% since 10 Jan 13)

***TP performance only (excluding 27.71% shares of profit from the investment in GPSC). TOP hold TP 74% since 4 Dec 12

• TM: Higher utilization after maintenance, sold 1 Vessel (TH 12) in Dec.13

resulting in the realization of loss from asset disposal 107 MB

• TET: SAPTHIP and MCE improved ethanol production along continual growth

in domestic gasohol demand

Refinery Utilization

Aromatic Production

Lube Base Production

IPT Plant Availability

TP Plant Utilization

SAKC Utilization

Ship Utilization

Sapthip

Utilization

Mae Sod

Utilization

(Unit: million THB)

-20-

2013: Performance Breakdown

PUBLIC

3,012 4,004 1,668 351 265 232 118 114 10,394

6,359 3,262 1,744 N/A 208 333 173 (162) 12,320

3,347 742 76 N/A 57 101 55 276 1,926

Refinery Utilization

Aromatic Production

Lube Base Production

IPT Plant Availability

TP Plant Utilization

SAKC Utilization

Ship Utilization

Sapthip

Utilization

Mae Sod

Utilization

NP 2013

NP 2012

∆YoY

Acc GRM

($/bbl)

P2F

($/ton)

P2F

($/ton)

FY/12 4.5 126 135

FY/13 5.1 147 144

Performance Breakdown

Stock G/(L) FY/13* = 2,624 MB

Net Profit excl. stock G/(L)* = 7,770 MB

*before tax

** Apply on an equity accounted basis in the consolidated financial statement.(GPSC has been hold by TOP 11.88% and TP 27.71% since 10 Jan 13)

***TP performance only (excluding 27.71% shares of profit from the investment in GPSC).TOP hold TP 74% since 4 Dec 12. FY2012 NP,TP takes 55% equity in Jan-Nov and 74% in Dec.

102% 89%

102% 95%

88%

130%

88% 84% 84% 101%

85% 96%

85% 87%

136%

85%

32%

74%

FY/13 FY/12

• TM: Sold 1 vessel (TH 12) in Dec.13 resulting in the realization of loss from

asset disposal 107 MB and acquired 2 new Aframaxs to extend FSO business

via new established company; TOP Nautical Star Co., Ltd.

• TET: SAPTHIP and MCE improved ethanol production along continual growth

in domestic gasohol demand

FY/13 Net Profit Breakdown (include stock gain / loss) **

32.39%

holding

74%

holding Conso. ***

(Unit: million THB)

-21-

414,599 447,432 (32,833)

22,361 20,350 2,011

(3,786) (2,343) (1,443)

(3,111) 1,987 (5,098)

(1,158) (1,789) 631

10,394 12,320 (1,926)

(US$/bbl) Q4/13 Q3/13 Q4/12 QoQ+/(-)

Marketing GRM 1.9 5.0 5.2 (3.1)

Marketing GIM 4.9 7.9 7.3 (3.0)

Accounting GIM 6.4 11.7 5.6 (5.3)

EPS (THB/Share) (0.01) 3.73 0.94 (3.74)

THB/US$ - average 31.83 31.62 30.82 0.21

THB/US$ - ending 32.95 31.53 30.78 1.42

Effective Tax Rate (%) N/A 7% 28% N/A

5.09 6.04 (0.95)

30.87 31.23 (0.36)

32.95 30.78 2.17

10% 13% (3%)

Consolidated Financial Performance

• In 2013, the corporate income tax rate is reduced to 20% from 23%

• redeemed BOI privilege for tax exemption on environmental projects in Q3/13 = 1,021 MB, Q4/13 = (382) MB, FY/13 = 640 MB and FY/12 = 1,171 MB

(million THB)

Sales Revenue 107,952 108,500 111,755 (548)

EBITDA 4,257 10,453 4,413 (6,196)

Financial Charges (968) (965) (592) (3)

FX G/(L) & CCS (1,815) (249) 420 (1,566)

Tax Expense* (217) (555) (736) 338

Net Profit / (Loss) (14) 7,609 1,925 (7,623)

Financial

FY/13 FY/12 YoY+/(-)

4.3 5.3 (1.0)

6.8 7.6 (0.8)

7.6 6.9 0.7

-22-

70,295 81,370

72,058 83,334

28,322

43,815

90,724 94,838

46,190 74,199

33,762

39,482

Strong Financial Performance

0.9 0.9 1.4

31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13

0.3 0.2 0.3

31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13

Statements of Financial Position

1) Including current portion of Long-Term Debt

Policy ≤ 1.0x Policy ≤ 2.0x

Financial Ratios

Net Debt / EBITDA Net Debt / Equity

Cost of Debt (Net*)

TOP Group 3.01%*

Financial

BBB

Stable Outlook

Baa1

Stable Outlook

AA-

Stable Outlook * Calculated by interest expense net off interest income as per FS as at 31 Dec 13

(Unit: million THB)

Trade Payable

/ Others

LT Debt1)

208,519 170,676

Equities

Current

Assets

Non-Current

Assets

Cash & ST

investment

31 Dec 12 31 Dec 13

Interest Rate Currency

6% Float 31% THB

94%Fixed 69% USD

96%

3% 1%

US$

Bond

, 69%

THB

Bond

, 24%

THB

Loan,

7%

Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Dec 13 1)

74,199 million THB

(US$ 2,252 million)

31,048 million THB

(US$ 942 million)

Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt

As at 31 Dec 13 (32.95 THB/US$)

-23-

7.82

9.19

8.13

9.40

0.11

5.91

4.41

7.28 6.04

5.09

1.80

3.50 3.50

4.50

2.75 2.55

2.00

3.30

2.70 2.30

FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 FY/07 FY/08 FY/09 FY/10 FY/11 FY/12 FY/13

Dividend Payment

Dividend Payment THB/Share Payout

FY/04 1.80 25%

FY/05 3.50 40%

FY/06 Interim Annual

3.50 1.50

2.00

45%


4.50 1.75

2.75

48%


2.75 1.75

1.00

n.a.

FY/09 Interim

Annual

2.55 1.05

1.50

43%

FY/10 Interim

Annual

2.00 0.60

1.40

45%

FY/11 Interim

Annual

3.30

1.30 2.00

45%

FY/12 Interim

Annual

2.70 0.50

2.20

45%

FY/13 Interim

Annual

2.30 0.80

1.50

45%

Dividend Policy :

Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan

25%

40%

45%

48%

Yield* 4.0% 5.6% 5.6% 6.2% 5.2% 7.1% 4.0% 4.7% 4.2% 3.6%

n.a.

43%

THB/Share

45%

* Based on average TOP price in each year

45%

EPS

Total dividend

Financial

45%

TOP price

44.7 63.0 62.7 72.7 53.3 35.9 49.9 69.8 65.1 64.6

45%

Q1-2014 and 2014 Market Outlook

• Macroeconomics & Crude Prices

• Petroleum Market

• Aromatics & Base Oil

• Conclusion

Macroeconomics & Crude Prices

Resume Supply in Libya , QE Tapering And Deal on Iran Nuclear

Pressure Crude Price in Q1-14 But high winter demand limit

downside

-26-


2014 Global GDP Growth by IMF

* IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Oct, 2013

** ASEAN-5 includes Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines

*** Bank of Thailand ,22 Jan 2014

Improved world economic growth 2014 driven by advanced countries

2.8%

-0.6%

5.2% 3.9%

3.2% 2.9%

3.6%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Growth

(%YoY) China US EU World 2012 2013* 2014*

USA 2.8% 1.6% 2.6%

EU -0.6% -0.4% 1.0%

China 7.7% 7.6% 7.3%

Japan 2.0% 2.0% 1.2%

India 3.2% 3.8% 5.1%

ASEAN-5** 6.2% 5.0% 5.4%

Thailand 5.9% 3.0% *** 3.0% ***

World 3.2% 2.9% 3.6%

http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=p0oP1cx2g9rmMM&tbnid=Iqo9F2DsV6Yp9M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://rfclipart.com/usa-button-flag-1482-vector-clipart.html&ei=wWz4Uv-OJYPRrQfftIAo&bvm=bv.60983673,d.bmk&psig=AFQjCNFJ6-SwZrWu2F54izou5bgtRkF88Q&ust=1392098722721725

-27-

2014 Global Oil Demand Growth


IEA Demand

(mbd)

Growth

(mbd)

2012 89.98 +1.02

2013 91.22 +1.24

2014 92.47 +1.25

OPEC Demand

(mbd)

Growth

(mbd)

2012 88.90 +0.80

2013 89.80 +0.80

2014 90.90 +1.10

EIA Demand

(mbd)

Growth

(mbd)

2012 89.17 +0.87

2013 90.38 +1.21

2014 91.59 +1.21

Unit: KBD

-540

-90 -50

Europe

1150

340 540

Asia 250 130 200

Middle East

160 130 170

Africa

230 210 170

Latin America

-340

380 90

North America

100 140 110

FSU

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, January 2013

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report January2014 Source: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook January 2014 Source: OPEC, Oil Market Report January 2014

2012/2013/2014

IEA forecasted 2014 world oil demand increases around 1.25 mbd from stronger GDP

-28-

2014 Non-OPEC Supply Growth


IEA Supply

(mbd) Growth

(mbd)

2012 53.37 +0.57

2013 54.73 +1.36

2014 56.43 +1.70

OPEC Supply

(mbd) Growth

(mbd)

2012 52.86 +0.55

2013 54.11 +1.25

2014 55.38 +1.27

EIA Supply

(mbd) Growth

(mbd)

2012 52.67 +0.61

2013 54.13 +1.49

2014 56.07 +1.94

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report January 2014 Source: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook January 2014 Source: OPEC, Oil Market Report January 2014

Unit: KBD

-290 -190 -100

Europe

-200

110 120

Asia -190 -100 -20

Middle East

-330

60 240

Africa

-60

0 190

Latin America

1250 1360 1200

North America

50 230 70

FSU

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, January 2013

2012/2013/2014

IEA forecasted 2014 Non-OPEC oil supply increases around 1.70 mbd mainly from North America

-29-

2014 World Oil Market Balance & OPEC Spare Capacity


Source: IEA, Oil Market Report (2011-14)

Dubai

$106.2/bbl

Dubai

$109.1/bbl Dubai

$105.5/bbl Dubai

$102.2/bbl

World Oil Demand (LHS) World Oil Supply (LHS)

(OPEC + Non-OPEC)

OPEC Spare Capacity (RHS)

Given supply growth exceeds demand growth, OPEC Spare Capacity rises above 6 MBD in 2014

http://stocksonwallstreet.net/2009/09/22/drill-baby-drill-invest-in-oil/oil_drop1/http://stocksonwallstreet.net/2009/09/22/drill-baby-drill-invest-in-oil/oil_drop1/http://stocksonwallstreet.net/2009/09/22/drill-baby-drill-invest-in-oil/oil_drop1/http://stocksonwallstreet.net/2009/09/22/drill-baby-drill-invest-in-oil/oil_drop1/

-30-

2014 Dubai Crude Price Outlook


Seaway Pipeline

Italy Political Gridlock

Weak CH Econ

Cyprus Bankrupt

Egypt Tension

N. Sea Maintenance

Gov S/D Debt Ceiling

Libya Supply Resumed

P5+1 & Iran progress

Ref Maintenance

Iraq Election

N. Sea Maintenance

Ramadan

Hurricane Season Winter Demand

2014 Dubai = $ 102 2013 Dubai = $ 105

Q1 : 103 Q2 : 100 Q3 : 102 Q4 : 104

US QE Tapering

Syria Chemical Weapon Libya & Iraq Supply Shortage

Softened crude price on average pressured by high US supply, QE tapering & soft stand from Iran

-31-

Volatile Crude Price from Instability in Libya, Iraq, Syria & Iran


Libya

Syria

Iraq Iran

Instable supply from Libya & Iraq, together with missing deadline of chemical weapon destruction in

Syria & uncertainty of oil sanction lift in Iran, add volatility to crude price movement in 2014

Syria (Capacity 164 KBD, Actual Prod 20 KBD)

High possibility that Syria will miss

deadline with UN on chemical weapon

destruction by Jun-14

Libya (Capacity 1,600 KBD, Actual Prod 650 KBD)

Struggle to negotiate with protester

controlling 600 KBD oil facilities in eastern

part of country

Iran (Capacity 4,000 KBD, Actual Prod 2,700 KBD)

Ongoing negotiation with P5+1 to relax more

economic sanction beyond temporary measure

ending Jun-14

Iraq (Capacity 3,200 KBD, Actual Prod 3,000 KBD)

High risk of violence & oil supply

situation approaching general election on

Apr-14

http://dakiniland.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/map-mena-middle-east-north-africa-image.jpg

Petroleum Product Market

Expect Firm GRM in Q1-14 supported by strong winter

demand and refinery closure in Japan

Keep Watching Chinese Economies & New Supply From Saudi

-33-

Overview 2014-17 Refinery Status

Addition KBD Company

China Q1-14 120 CNPC (Urumqi)

Q2-14 160 Sinopec (Jiangsu)

Q4-14 200 CNPC (Yunnan)

Q4-14 100 CNPC/SA Anning (Huabei)

Q4-14 100 Sinopec Jiujiang (Jiangxi)

Q4-14 140 CNOOC/Ningbo Daxie (Zhejiang)

Q3-15 400 CNPC/PDVSA (Guangdong)

India Q2-14 300 IOC Paradeep

Closure KBD Company

Japan Q1-14 -377 Tonen/ Idemitsu/ JX Nippon

China Q2/Q4 -70/-70 Sinopec (Jiangsu) / (Jiangxi)

Q4-14 -100 Local refinery

Australia Q2-14 -125 Caltex (Kurnell)

Q4-14 -105 Shell (Geelong) Source: FACTs fall 2013 / Reuter (CN Ref Delay, 30 Jan 14)

{Postpone to 2016}

{Postpone to 2015}

{Postpone to 2017}

CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME

“Expect supportive GRM in 2014 due to limited net capacity addition as refinery closure in

Japan, Australia & project postponement in China/India”

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

KBD

AP Additional Demand ME Additional Demand

AP CDU Addition China

China - Close India

Japan Vietnam

Others Others - Close

ME CDU Addition Net Capacity

Demand Growth

Capacity Growth

{Regulation}

{Environment / Economic}

{Gov’t policy}

{Gov’t policy}

{Environment / Economic}

Refinery

-34-

Expect Better Middle Distillate Spread in 2014 Supported by… (1)

JP imposed regulation requiring ratio of

cracking per Crude Distiller at min 13%

effective April 1, 2014

Given declining oil demand, refiners

choose to close crude distillers (377 KBD

in 2014) instead of investing to upgrade

Source : FACTS Fall 2013

Japan to close some refineries

CN econ grows slower than expected

resulting in oversupply of petroleum prod

Source : FACTS Fall 2013 / IEA Oil Monthly Report

CNPC to postpone refinery project in China

Jan-14, CNPC postponed refinery projects

(total capacity of 700 KBD from 2014-15

to 2016-17)

1.

Implication Implication “JP to import more FO/Naph,

export less GO/Jet” “Limited GO export from China”

Excess Capacities

2.

More than 3 MBD of excess

refining capacities due to slower

demand growth

http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=wPJ8Ppr4iy-sGM&tbnid=Akps7s1jVUz3iM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/index_metipolicies.html&ei=pSn3UofdMMjYigfWtIHAAw&bvm=bv.60983673,d.aGc&psig=AFQjCNFL5qsSxbcM-C2IfiXT72CbHVrQNw&ust=1392016105633641http://www.satrapia.com/index.php?eID=tx_cms_showpic&file=uploads/pics/CNPC_logo.png&md5=8fb111d9fe2ab2e809b5cf7a9ce3eb40d327c977&parameters[0]=YTo0OntzOjU6IndpZHRoIjtzOjQ6IjgwMG0iO3M6NjoiaGVpZ2h0IjtzOjQ6IjYw&parameters[1]=MG0iO3M6NzoiYm9keVRhZyI7czoyMDoiPEJPRFkgYmdDb2xvcj1ibGFjaz4iO3M6&parameters[2]=NDoid3JhcCI7czozNzoiPEEgaHJlZj0iamF2YXNjcmlwdDpjbG9zZSgpOyI+IHwg&parameters[3]=PC9BPiI7fQ==

-35-

Expect Better Middle Distillate Spread in 2014 Supported by… (2)

Normal Gasoil Wholesale Price Normal Gasoil Wholesale Price Import cost of B3-B5 Import cost of B3-B5

Yuan / mt

Prior to Dec 15, 2013 After Dec 15, 2013

Cost Comparison b/w normal gasoil wholesale price vs import B3-B5 in China

Total 8,701 Profitable to import B3-B5

into China

Not profitable to

import B3-B5

Source : Reuter

Expect limited Chinese Gasoil export in 2014 compared to 2013 after CN gov’t imposed import

taxes on B3-B5 effective on Dec 15, 2013, making B3-B5 import unprofitable

3.

China Biodiesel Import China Normal Gasoil Export

2012 (Jan – Oct) 0.01 Mbbl/Month 0.90 Mbbl/Month

2013 (Jan – Oct) 1.12 Mbbl/Month 1.70 Mbbl/Month

Refinery

-36-

Firm GRM on Higher Winter Demand & Improving Regional Demand, especially Indonesia…

Factor to watch for Q1-14…

**Compared to Q4-13

($/bbl) 2013FY Q4-13 QTD Q1-14* Q1-14** 2014FY***

ULG95-DB 13.6 9.2 14.1

JET-DB 17.5 17.3 17.8

GO-DB 17.8 17.7 17.9

HSFO-DB -8.0 -10.4 -7.5

Adj Cracking SG GRM 3.0 1.0 3.5

***Compared to 2013FY Remark :

+Expect less Chinese export as

government impose import tax

on biodiesel + Less export from Japan due to refinery

closure (regulation effective on Apr 1, 2014)

- Full effect of new supply from

Jubail refinery (400 KBD)

*QTD until 12 Feb 14 Adj Cracking SG GRM assuming 3% F&L of Dubai crude cost

Factor to watch for Q2-4-14…

+ Resume Indonesian import demand

+ Seasonal high demand

during winter esp. in

northern US

- Closed arbitrage to move

cargo west on mild winter in

Europe

Refinery

http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=yTy9w3AjCMsNFM&tbnid=-ESmD0CNxCXb4M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.knowledgeoverflow.com/beautiful-winter-wallpaper-for-desktop/&ei=rznAUbmXF4rfkgW2tIHQDw&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNEpL6q6nYLRwORWAM1YB8B8uwbtbw&ust=1371638553087905

-37-

Thailand Oil Demand 2013 and 2014 Outlook

2013 2014F

LPG

Gasoline

Jet

Diesel

Fuel Oil

Total

year on year 2013 2014F

LPG +1.9%A +3.7%

Gasoline +6.6% +0.4%

Jet/Kero +9.4% +0.8%

Diesel +1.9% +0.4%

Fuel Oil -8.4% -13.1%

Total +3.0% +0.8% Oil

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n

MML/DAY

Government Policy Highlight

Remarks : A : LPG data is 11 months.

Refinery

Aromatics

PARAXYLENE ….

Upcoming of new PX capacity weigh down PX spread

-39-

Status of New AP/ME PX Capacities Feedstock Uncertainty Own Feedstock

Source: IHS and PCI Xylene&Polyesters

(KTPA) H

C P

etr

och

em

Ten

glo

ng

1

Ten

glo

ng

2

Sin

op

ec H

inan

TP

PI

Addition Plan KTPA* Company Note

China Feb 650 Petrochina Sichuan

Petrochemical

Singapore Apr 800 Jurong Aromatics Corp

Korea Jun 1,000 Samsung Total 2

Saudi Arabia Jul 660 SATORP Delay from Dec’13

Korea Jul 1,000 Ulsan Aromatic

Korea Aug 1,300 SK Energy Construction works was delayed as local authorities

ordered to halt work because construction area

exceeding permits (Source : Reuter)

Algeria Sep 220 Sonatrach

Kazakhstan Sep 469 JSC KazMunaiGas

India Sep 920 ONGC Mangalore

Petrochemicals

Delay from Mar due to construction and technical

issues

Remark : * Nameplate capacities

Aromatics

-40-

PX Facing Challenges in Coming Year

26.8 29.0

31.3

26.7 28.8

34.7

20

25

30

35

40

2012 2013 2014

Demand Capacity (Mil tons/yr)

AP PX Capacity* and Demand

Dem: 8.2%

Cap: 7.8%

-0.1 -0.2

3.4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2012 2013 2014

(Mil tons/yr)

Capacity*-Demand

Dem: 8.0%

Cap: 20.7%

471 485

2012 2013 2014

PX CFR – ULG95 ($/t)

New PX capacity of 5.7 million tons will be added

in South Korea, China, India and Singapore.

PX demand in 2014 is projected to grow by 8% (2.2 mil

tons/yr), which is similar to the growth rate in year 2013.

SUPPLY

DEMAND

PX CFR-ULG95

Softer PX spread, but there will not be a major

collapse as feedstock availability for the new

standalone PX units is quite limited.

Source: PCI Xylene&Polyesters

Remark : * Normalized capacity to start up period

Aromatics

-41-

PX Demand/Supply Outlook

Aromatics

24 26 27 29

31 33 35 36

39 41

25 27 27 29

35 38 40

42 43 44

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Demand Capacity

Dem: 8%

Cap: 6%

Source: PCI Xylene&Polyesters

“Constraint on MX Feedstock Supply in Korea ”

Own MX

3.0 MT*

Purchase MX

1.1 MT* 4.1 MT,

2013-2015

AP PX Capacity* and Demand

Dem: 6%

Cap: 7%

1.1 0.9

-0.1 -0.2

3.4

5.3 5.0

5.3

4.4

2.5

-2

0

2

4

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Capacity*-Demand

Forecast

New PX capacity of 1.97 mil tons/yr will be added in

South Korea, India, China, Singapore and Vietnam

during 2014-2019.

PX demand in the next 5 years is projected to grow by

6% (1.98 mil tons/yr), which is lower than the growth

rate during 2010-2013 due to slow down in China's GDP

growth.

SUPPLY

DEMAND

(Mil tons/yr) (Mil tons/yr)

Remark : * Ton of PX Equivalence

73%

27%


-42-

Light feed in US to Support BZ Market in AP

20.8 22.2 22.8

29.4 30.7 33.1

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014

Demand Capacity

(Mil tons/yr)

AP BZ Capacity* and Demand

Dem: 6.5%

Cap: 4.4%

8.6 8.5 10.3

0 2 4 6 8

10 12

2012 2013 2014

(Mil tons/yr)

Capacity*-Demand

Dem: 2.8%

Cap: 7.9%

157

289

2012 2013 2014

BZ FOB– ULG95 ($/t)

New BZ capacity of 3 mil tons/yr will be added in

South Korea, China, India and Singapore.

BZ demand growth in 2014 is projected to reach its

normal level of 2.8% (0.6 mil tons/yr).

SUPPLY

DEMAND

BZ FOB-ULG95

Firm BZ spread as light feed in US will help to

bring the market into balance. Source: IHS


Aromatics

-43-

BZ Demand/Supply Outlook

Source: IHS

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Higher BZ Import

“BZ Imports by North America”

Million Tons

20 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27

28 28 29 29 31

33 34 35 36 36

38

10

20

30

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Demand Capacity

Dem: 5%

Cap: 5%

AP BZ Capacity* and Demand

Dem: 4%

Cap: 2%

New BZ capacity of 0.8 mil tons/yr will be added in

China, South Korea , India and Singapore during

2014-2015.

BZ demand growth during 2014-2019 is projected

to reach at 4% (1.1 mil tons/yr).

7.6 8.8 8.6 8.5

10.3 10.1 9.4 9.4 8.9 9.3

0

5

10

15

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Capacity*-Demand

Forecast

SUPPLY

DEMAND

(Mil tons/yr) (Mil tons/yr)


Aromatics

-44-

Increasing New Supply from China Pressure PX Market

($/t) 2013FY Q4-13 QTD Q1-14* Q1-14** 2014FY***

PX-ULG95 485 446 343

BZ-ULG95 289 297 336

TL-ULG95 148 153 120

Note: PX = Paraxylene, BZ = Benzene, TL = Toluene

Factor to Watch for Q1-14 ….

+ Open arbitrage window for Asian BZ

to US

- Sufficient BZ inventories from

downstream producers

- Startup of Petrochina Sichuan

- Soft PX and PTA demand

- Restart of Qingdao Lidong

PX:

BZ:

- Low demand for PX upgrading

- Increasing TL inventory in China

TL:

Factor to Watch for Q2-4-14 ….

** Compared to Q4-13 *** Compared to 2013FY *QTD until 12 Feb 14

- Heavy supply from new BZ plants

+ High demand from US

- Upcoming PX plant start-up

- High polyester inventory

- Low PTA operating rates

PX:

BZ:

TL: + Tighten TL supply following

startup of new PX plant in Korea

Aromatics

Lube Base & Bitumen

Supply from new base oil plants pressured market sentiment

-46-

Flooding of Group II & Group III Supply

Global base oil demand remain on an uptrend, growing at 1.4% p.a., with the rising of Gr.II & III consumption.

Approximate 70% of base oil Gr.I can be replaced by Gr.II.

Surplus capacity of Gr.II and Gr.III in Asia Pacific (including ME) will lead to base oil price competition.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gr.II_Capacity Gr.II_Demand

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gr.III_Capacity Gr.III_Demand

MT

MT MT

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gr.I_Capacity Gr.I_Demand

Gr.II Demand Growth = 8% Gr.III Demand Growth = 11% Gr.I Demand Growth = -2%

MT

Source : TOP Estimate, ICIS –china, Kline, Lube and grease

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan

-11

Feb

-11

Mar-

11

Ap

r-11

May-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-

11

Au

g-1

1

Sep

-11

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan

-12

Feb

-12

Mar-

12

Ap

r-12

May-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Mar-

13

Ap

r-13

May-1

3

Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3

Sep

-13

Oct-

13

No

v-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Gr.I FOB Asia-HSFO

Gr.II-Gr.I

Gr.III-Gr.I

Spread of Gr.II - Gr.I and Gr.III –Gr.I $/Ton

Lube Base & Bitumen

-47-

Bitumen Market

Lube Base & Bitumen

Slow demand from Indonesia due to finished road projects at year end 2013 and

rupiah depreciation app. 27% compared to same period last year

High inventory in China and tight budget policy kept players away from market

However, demand from Vietnam and Australia supported bitumen market

-140

-100

-60

-20

20

60

100

140

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Bitumen-HSFO Bitumen Price FOB S'Pore HSFO FOB SG

$/MT $/MT SG

-48-

More Supply from Gr.II Pressured Gr.I Base Oil Market

Lube Base & Bitumen

($/t) 2013FY Q4-13 QTD Q1-14* Q1-14** 2014FY***

500SN-HSFO 485 509 490

Bitumen-HSFO -14 -27 -58

Factor to Watch for Q2-4-14

** Compared to Q4-13 *** Compared to 2013FY Remark :

- Tight budget control policy in China

result in less road project approval

+ Stocking activity of bitumen ahead

of summer season

*QTD until 12 Feb 14

+ Restocking activity after New

Year holiday and ahead of

agricultural season

- Price competition from ample

supply of Gr.II from new plants

Factor to Watch for Q1-14

- Rainy season in late Q2 to Q3

pressures bitumen market

+ Stocking activity of bitumen during

summer season

+ Stocking activity for agricultural

season demand during Q2

+ Base Oil plant maintenance in Q2

- Price competition from ample

supply of Gr.II from new plants

http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=LCi4kOwCcNgJYM&tbnid=AiLyCZa_vJnbDM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.aimcontracting.com.au/bitumen_repairs.htm&ei=ao34UsniKcOKrQfu_4GQAw&bvm=bv.60983673,d.bmk&psig=AFQjCNH-_wzDcbFiSPQJHyr1aLr5BMqHgQ&ust=1392107234053843

Conclusion

-50-

Firm Fundamental

Conclusion

• Soften crude oil price on strong growth supply from US light tight oil

• Supportive GRM in 2014 due to limited net capacity addition

• Mild local oil demand growth in 2014 pressured by slower econ

• Softer PX spread due to increasing supply, especially from Korea

• Firm BZ spread supported by light feed in US

• Weaker spread due to more supply of premium grade base oil

compete with Gr.I

• Firmed Gr.I demand for Brightstock and heavy grade base oil

Refinery

Aromatic

Lube Base

Project Update

-52-

Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out ,Pursuing Sustainability

Logistics

AEC countries

Value Chain Enhancement

Adjacent

Quick win

Core Business

Geography

New Business

Operational Excellence Growth (Core & Step Out)

-53-

Strategic Investment Plan

Projects COD Total Project Cost 2013 2014 2015

After

2015

Refinery upgrading 2014 137 72 56

Reliability, efficiency and flexibility

improvement - 365 56 99 69 47

Environmental and fuel efficiency

improvement

- 317* 150 135 9

CDU-3 preheat train 2014 68* 13 55

Benzene Derivatives - LAB 2015 300 74 142 57 27

GPSC investment End 2013 75 75

Power – 2 SPPs 2016 380 4 173 161 41

Solvent expansion – SAKC 2014 60 35 11

Aframaxs / Crew boats 2013/14 47 19 14

Total 1,751 498 685 296 115

CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million)

Notes: Excluding approximately 40 M$/year for annual maintenance

*anticipated to receive BOI 100% of actual investment cost

Projects under

review/study

COD Total Project Cost

2013 2014 2015 After

2015

Jetty 7,8 Q1-15 162 1 85 70 6

Our CAPEX investments will

cover improvements in

plants reliability, efficiency

& flexibility, environmental

& fuel efficiency

improvement as well as

value chain enhancement

Thai Oil has sufficient

internal cash flow to fund

this investment plan

$1,594 m

Remaining capital investment

-54-

Project Update

Project Detail Progress

HCU Revamp:

• Phase I: PSA-3

• Phase II: HVU-2

Revamp

• Increase high purity hydrogen production to gain margin

from high sulphur crude processing

• Maximize lube base oil production while increasing

Gasoline/Jet/Diesel production

• CAPEX = 137 M$

• COD = 1Q2014

• COMPLETED Basic Design

Package (BDP) & Basic

Design Engineering Package

(BDEP)

• CONSTRUCTION PHASE

(overall progress 96.0%)

Max Lube

Higher Middle Distillates

Lower Fuel oil

-55-

Project Update


Emission

Improvement

Project (EIP)

• To control flue gas quality according to the new

emission law (New emission law limits SOX < 500

ppm from Dec 2013 onwards)

• To build spare capacity for flue gas treating unit • CAPEX = 233.0* M$

• COD = 1Q2014

• CONSTRUCTION PHASE


* BOI privileges : Exemption of corporate income tax for 8

years at 100% of actual investment cost for emission

reduction projects .

-56-

Project Update

Shell & Tube Heat Exchanger Plate Heat Exchanger Tray


CDU-3 Crude

Preheat Train

Improvement

• Set up, replace and rearrange heat exchangers in CDU-3

to reduce fuel usage

• Improve tray & equipment in CDU-3 to enhance refining

efficiency by increasing Kerosene production and Crude

intake

• CAPEX = 68 M$

• COD = 3Q2014

• COMPLETED Basic Design

Package (BDP) & Front End

Engineering and Design

(FEED)

• EXECUTE Engineering,

Procurement &

Construction (EPC)


-57-

Project Update


Linear Alkyl

Benzene (LAB)

TPX JV with Mitsui

75% : 25%

• Upgrade existing Benzene and Kerosene into

higher valued product; LAB which is an

intermediate feedstock in production of

surfactant

• Capacity: 100 KTA (First Integrated LAB Plant in SEA) • CAPEX = 400 M$

• COD = 2015

• CONSTRUCTION Phase


0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Demand Supply (Nameplate Capacity) Deficit

KTA

LAB in SEA market

Demand growth rate 3 % p.a. Net Deficit ; import from NEA

Only 1 Producer in Indonesia; Non integrated

~70% Utilization (capacity 180 KTA)

Demand in Thailand ~65 KTA (net import)

SEA Demand / Supply

Established on

11 Jul 13

KTA %

Feedstock

Kerosene (from TOP) 520 94%

Benzene (from TPX) 33 6%

Product/ By-products

LAB 100 19%

By-products (mostly Kerosene

components) (to TOP)

453 81%

-58-

Project Update


TOP SPP

(2 blocks of SPP)

• Low risk power business enhance income stability

• To support reliability of electricity and steam supply for

TOP Group

• Develop 2 new SPP power plants; total capacity 239 MW

under a firm contract with the government

• CAPEX = 380 M$

• COD = 2016

• COMPLETED Front End

Engineering and Design

(FEED)

• EXECUTE Engineering,

Procurement &

Construction (EPC)

(Awarded a contractor)

100%

TOP SPP Company Limited

2 blocks of SPP

Power capacity: 239 MW

(SPP block 1: 124 MW)

(SPP block 2: 115 MW)

Steam capacity 498 T/H

Under construction with CAPEX

380 M$ COD 2016

498 T/H

-59-

Project Update

AEC Member Countries

Market Demand (KTA)


Solvent Expansion

(SAKC)

• To expand solvent capacity to meet the demand growth

in Thailand and the region

• Capacity increase to 141 KTA from 76 KTA

• CAPEX = 60 M$

• COD = 2Q2014

• CONTRUCTION PHASE


http://www.google.co.th/imgres?imgurl=http://www.toplaza.com/adpics/4/4b106af84322e931b521ccf6f.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.toplaza.com/_%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%87%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%96%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%99%E0%B8%95%E0%B9%8C&usg=__3oKggpIgQnA_GEznEwAJbl7ScwA=&h=1181&w=933&sz=138&hl=th&start=3&zoom=1&tbnid=wNf0uUahj538UM:&tbnh=150&tbnw=119&ei=H2ZTTqHrDMfprQeStMXADg&prev=/search?q=%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%87%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%96%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%99%E0%B8%95%E0%B9%8C&hl=th&sa=X&gbv=2&tbm=isch&itbs=1http://www.google.co.th/imgres?imgurl=http://thailand.panpages.com/profileimg/s/%E0%B8%9C%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%B4%E0%B8%95%E0%B8%A0%E0%B8%B1%E0%B8%93%E0%B8%91%E0%B9%8C-17596.jpg&imgrefurl=http://thailand.panpages.com/%E0%B8%99/%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%89%E0%B8%B3%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%B1%E0%B8%99%E0%B8%9E%E0%B8%B7%E0%B8%8A/&usg=__yrtBnA0Fsdr8398dvIqnChBSG54=&h=184&w=113&sz=8&hl=th&start=7&zoom=1&tbnid=ujTqeQ5y1CuLFM:&tbnh=102&tbnw=63&ei=XmZTTtPLDIq0rAeQrbyuDg&prev=/search?q=%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%89%E0%B9%8D%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%B1%E0%B8%99%E0%B8%9E%E0%B8%B7%E0%B8%8A&hl=th&sa=X&gbv=2&tbm=isch&itbs=1

Question & Answer

-73-

Thank You

Any queries, please contact:

at email: [email protected]

Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961

Fax: 662-797-2976

Appendices

-75-

Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin

Source: EIA, Norwegian Energy, Thai Oil

Total Capacity: 3.7 MBD

85.3% 56.5% 75.5%

Total Capacity: 15.1 MBD Total Capacity: 9.6 MBD

$/bbl

SINGAPORE GRM

-76-

Crude Inventory

Source: Norwegian Energy

-77-

Global Distillate Inventory


-78-

Fuel Oil Inventory


-79-

China’s Product Export


-80-

Benchmark Product Yield

Yield

WTI CRK BRT CRK SG DB CRK SG DB

HSK

Reuters Yield Reuters

Adj F&L Reuters

Adj F&L Reuters

Adj F&L

Mogas 47% 25% 31% 10%

Naphtha - - 7% 6%

Jet 25% 25% 18% 17%

GO 11% 23% 16% 16%

FO 13% 18% 22% 46%

LPG 4% 6% 3% 3%

MTBE -2% - - -

TOTAL 98% 97% 97% 98%

-81-

Domestic LPG Demand

LPG Demand by Sector

LPG Demand Highlight

• LPG demand in Q4-13 increased by 1%YoY from

expansion demand in industry sector.

• LPG demand in 2013 expected to increased by 2%

YoY supported by higher demand in automotive

and petrochemical industry. However, it was

limited gain by reduction demand in cooking

sector as government imposed active measures

on gas distributors selling cross sectional LPG

from household sector.

Outlook for 2014

• LPG demand is expected to grow by 4% YoY

supported by the expectation of higher demand

for feedstock in petrochemical industry.

• However, LPG demand growth was expected to

limit by LPG price structure reform that

government aims to increase retail price in

automotive and household sectors.

Thailand LPG Demand

2012 2013

-82-

GASOLINE Demand Highlight

• Mogas consumption in Q4-13 grew by 1% YoY.

Meanwhile, mogas demand in Dec-13 fell by 0.3%

MoM pressured by concerns on tension of protest,

which resulted in reduction of mogas demand in

almost every grade except E85.

• AVG-Mogas demand in 2013 stood at 22.5 mml/day,

rose by 7% YoY thanks to the recorded new car sale

from 1st car buying program, which was largely

delivered in 1H-13.

• AVG-Thailand's ethanol demand in 2013 stood at

2.60 mml/day, supported by government campaign

to promote gasohol usage. Meanwhile, AVG-ethanol

production stood at 2.63 mml/day. The ratio of

ethanol production between molasses and cassava

was 73 : 27.

Outlook for 2014

• Mogas consumption is predicted to grow by only

1% YoY due to the high base effect of last year from

1st car buying program and the pressure of

prolonged political concerns in Q1/2014.

Domestic Gasoline Demand

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

Gasoline Demand by Grade

Thailand Gasoline Demand

-83-

JET Demand Highlight

• Jet consumption in Q4-13 rose by 11% YoY in line

with an increase in number of flights as well as a

rise in tourists.

• Jet consumption in Dec-13 increased by 1.0%

Mom supported by travelling season demand

even though there was political concerns in

Thailand.

• AVG-Jet consumption in 2013 stood at 15

mml/day, increased by 9.7% YoY due to higher in

aircraft movements by 16.6% YoY and tourist

numbers by 19.1% YoY.

Outlook for 2014

• Jet demand growth was expected to be around

2% YoY owing to high base effect of last year and

concerns on political risk.

Domestic Jet Demand

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy / AOT

Thailand JET-A1 Demand

JET-A1 demand and # of flights

-84-

GASOIL Demand Highlight

• Gas oil demand in Q4-13 slightly decreased by 0.5% YoY

due to decline in industry sector which was shown by

the MPI reduction of 8.1% YoY.

• Gas oil demand in Dec-13 increased 2% MoM

supported from rising in transportation and higher

demand in harvesting season for agricultural products.

• AVG-Gasoil demand in 2013 stood at 57.3 mml/day,

increased by 1% YoY mainly owing to higher demand in

industrial sector after production resumed as flooding

ease.

Outlook for 2014

• Gasoil demand in 2014 is expected to expand by 0.5%

YoY supported by capped retail price at 30B/litre policy

but upside limited by the expectation of lower economy

growth.

Domestic Gasoil Demand


NGV Demand Highlight

• NGV in Q4-13 grew robustly by 8%YoY because of

attractive retail price. Though NGV price was partially

floated, it was still the cheapest fuel.

• NGV in 2013 rose by 11% YoY mainly due to demand

expansion in transportation sector of 10% YoY.

Thailand Gasoil Demand

Note: Gasoline demand in Sep is based on news on 23 Oct 2013 (unofficial data)

NGV Demand

-85-

Domestic Fuel Oil Demand

FUEL OIL Demand Highlight

• Fuel oil demand in Q4-13 increased by 1% YoY

mainly from higher usage in industry sector.

• Fuel oil demand in Dec-13 rose by 7% MoM from

a increase usage in transportation by 14% YoY.

Moreover, Fuel oil demand in electricity sector

also increased by 9% thank to higher demand for

inventory during Yetagun and Yanada gas

platform turnaround.

• Fuel Oil demand in 2013 fell by 8% YoY pressured

by decline usage in industry and electricity

sector by 19% and 28% respectively.

Outlook for 2014

• Fuel oil demand expected to dropped by 13%

YoY as the expectation of lower demand as

government campaign to reduce fuel oil usage

in electricity sector following PDP plan.


Thailand Fuel Oil Demand by Sector

Thailand Fuel Oil Demand

-86-

Thank You

Any queries, please contact:

at email: [email protected]

Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961

Fax: 662-797-2976

thai oil public company limited...2014/02/18 · (tpx 75:mitsui 25) 11 jun 13 produce & distribute...

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