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29 th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy 16 November 2016

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Page 1: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

29th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy

16 November 2016

Page 2: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

Forward-looking Statements

This presentation has been produced by BW LPG Limited (“BW LPG”) exclusively for information purposes. This presentation may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to

any other person.

Matters discussed in this presentation and any materials distributed in connection with this presentation may constitute or include forward–looking statements. Forward–looking statements

are statements that are not historical facts and may be identified by words such as “anticipates”, “believes”, “continues”, “estimates”, “expects”, “intends”, “may”, “should”, “will” and similar

expressions, such as “going forward”. These forward–looking statements reflect BW LPG’s reasonable beliefs, intentions and current expectations concerning, among other things, BW

LPG’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth and strategies. Forward–looking statements include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies, outlook

and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures; economic outlook and industry trends;

developments of BW LPG’s markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of BW LPG’s competitors. Forward–looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because

they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The forward–looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many

of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management’s examination of historical operating trends, data contained in BW LPG’s records and other

data available from third parties. Although BW LPG believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and

unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control. Forward–looking statements are not

guarantees of future performance and such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors could cause the actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity of BW

LPG or the industry to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in this presentation by such forward–looking statements. No representation is made that any of these

forward–looking statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecast result will be achieved and you are cautioned not to place any undue influence on any forward–looking

statement.

No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made by BW LPG, its affiliates or representatives as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy,

completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein, for any purpose whatsoever. Neither BW LPG nor any of its affiliates or representatives shall have any

responsibility or liability whatsoever (for negligence or otherwise) for any loss whatsoever and howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in

connection with this presentation. All information in this presentation is subject to updating, revision, verification, correction, completion, amendment and may change materially and without

notice. In giving this presentation, none of BW LPG, its affiliates or representatives undertakes any obligation to provide the recipient with access to any additional information or to update

this presentation or any information or to correct any inaccuracies in any such information. The information contained in this presentation should be considered in the context of the

circumstances prevailing at the time and has not been, and will not be, updated to reflect material developments which may occur after the date of the presentation.

The contents of this presentation are not to be construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice. Each recipient should consult its own legal, business, investment or tax adviser as to

legal, business, investment or tax advice. By attending this presentation you acknowledge that you will be solely responsible for your own assessment of the market and the market position

of BW LPG and that you will conduct your own analysis and be solely responsible for forming your own view on the potential future performance of the business of BW LPG. This

presentation must be read in conjunction with the recent financial information and the disclosures therein.

This presentation and the information contained herein are not an offer of securities for sale in the United States and are not for publication or distribution to persons in the United States

(within the meaning of Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)). The securities referred to herein have not been and will not be registered

under the Securities Act and may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act. Any failure to comply

with this restriction may constitute a violation of United States securities laws. BW LPG has not registered and does not intend to register its securities in the United States or to conduct a

public offering of shares in the United States. Copies of this presentation are not being made and may not be distributed or sent, directly or indirectly, in or into the United States, Canada,

Australia or Japan, or any other jurisdiction in which such distribution would be unlawful or would require registration or other measures.

In any EEA Member State other than Norway that has implemented Directive 2003/71/EC (as amended, together with any applicable implementing measures in any Member State, the

“Prospectus Directive”), this presentation is only addressed to and is only directed at qualified investors in that Member State within the meaning of the Prospectus Directive.

For the UK based investors–This presentation is only being distributed to and is only directed at persons in the United Kingdom that are (i) investment professionals falling within Article

19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the “Order”) or (ii) high net worth entities, and other persons to whom this

presentation may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This presentation must not

be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this presentation relates is available only to relevant persons and will be

engaged in only with relevant persons.

2

Page 3: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

3

Global Leader in Maritime LPG

“BW LPG’s

vision is to be

the global

leader in

maritime LPG.”

Proven

Operating

Platform

Over 38 years

of expertise in

LPG shipping

Preferred

partner for

blue chip

charterers

Proximity to capital

markets & Asian

demand centers

Market leading

financing

Strong financial

position

Largest fleet of

VLGCs

Page 4: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

4

VLGC Freight Rates – $ per ton Baltic index currently ~40% lower than all-time average, rates haven’t been this low since 2009

Source: Baltic Exchange

Baltic Index $ Per Ton (Ras Tanura - Chiba)FOR CHART:

Baltic

$ Per Ton as % of

Current $29.2

Last 5 Years Median $65.5 45%

Last 10 Years Median $44.2 66%

All Time Median $41.6 70%

Last 5 Years Average $66.8 44%

Last 10 Years Average $52.2 56%

All Time Average $48.3 61%

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Page 5: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

5

VLGC Freight Rates – $ per day There has been no seasonal upturn in 2016, with rates languishing near decade lows through the year

Source: Clarksons

Trailing Ten Year Monthly VLGC Spot Rates ($ Per Day)

-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

10Y High / Low 10Y Avg. - $36,872 2015 - $88,128 2016 Current - $18,000

Page 6: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

6

Historical VLGC Fleet Growth Record net fleet growth of 43 vessels in 2016, pace decelerating from 2018 onwards

Source: Clarksons

Historical VLGC Fleet Development

2008A

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014A

2015A

2016A

2017F

2018F

2019F

2020F

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

(5%)

-

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

VLGC Fleet Development (RHS) VLGC Fleet Development Forecast

% VLGC Fleet Growth (LHS) % Fleet Growth Forecast

Page 7: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

7

U.S. and Asian Propane Prices & Differentials Relatively strong U.S. prices and weak Asian prices has led to narrowing of arbitrage

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. propane prices are up in 2016… …as they have performed in line with rising crude pricesMont Belvieu propane price ($ per ton) Mont Belvieu as % of WTI

While Asian propane prices are down… …leading to compressed product arbsAFE front month propane price ($ per ton) Front month AFE - spot Mont Belvieu spread ($ per ton)

-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$9002012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

-

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Mont Belvieu as % of WTI WTI

-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,4002012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$7002012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Page 8: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

8

U.S. LPG Production and Consumption by Gas 2016 production growth led by refinery production as field production growth has stalled

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

U.S. LPG Snapshot (Mt) - November 2016 EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

25.9 31.0

36.0 36.6 37.8

17.8

18.5

17.6 18.4 19.1

14.6

17.1

20.0 20.2

20.5

1.6

1.9

1.6 1.4

1.6

40.1 36.7 36.6 35.1 35.3

5.5

5.7 6.9 6.7 6.2

10.4 11.3 11.7

11.4 10.9

5.8 11.7

18.1 24.5 26.8

59.9

68.5

75.1 76.5 79.0

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2013Actual 2014Actual 2015Actual 2016Forecast 2017Forecast

C3 Gas Plant Prod. C3 Refinery Prod. C4 Gas Plant Prod. C4 Refinery Prod. C3 Consumption C4 Consumption C4 Blending Net Exports

Page 9: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

9

Historical correlation between Brent crude oil &

Asian propane prices Relationship has broken down from >90% in 2014 to 1% in 2016

Correlation of Brent Crude & Asia Propane - 2013 Correlation of Brent Crude & Asia Propane - 2014

Correlation of Brent Crude & Asia Propane - 2015 Correlation of Brent Crude & Asia Propane - 2016

R² = 34%

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

$95 $100 $105 $110 $115 $120

Brent Crude ($ Per Barrel)

Prop

ane

AFE

($ P

er T

on)

R² = 93%

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$80 $85 $90 $95 $100 $105 $110 $115 $120

Brent Crude ($ Per Barrel)

Prop

ane

AFE

($ P

er T

on)

R² = 49%

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 $65 $70

Brent Crude ($ Per Barrel)

Prop

ane

AFE

($ P

er T

on)

R² = 1%

$250

$270

$290

$310

$330

$350

$370

$390

$410

$430

$450

$25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60

Brent Crude ($ Per Barrel)

Prop

ane

AFE

($ P

er T

on)

Source: Bloomberg

Page 10: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

10

Global LPG Imports Market still growing but at slower pace

Source: IHS Waterborne

Quarterly LPG Imports (Million Metric Tons)

-

5

10

15

20

25

Q1-2013 Q2-2013 Q3-2013 Q4-2013 Q1-2014 Q2-2014 Q3-2014 Q4-2014 Q1-2015 Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016

China Japan Korea India Southeast Asia Other

Page 11: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

11

Global LPG Exports Market still growing but at slower pace

Source: IHS Waterborne

Quarterly LPG Exports (Million Metric Tons)

-

5

10

15

20

25

Q1-2013 Q2-2013 Q3-2013 Q4-2013 Q1-2014 Q2-2014 Q3-2014 Q4-2014 Q1-2015 Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016

Middle East US North Europe Med West Africa Other

Page 12: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven

12

Select region/country retail LPG consumption per capita Heavily populated SE Asia, Pakistan & sub-Saharan Africa all consume far less LPG

than global average

Source: Argus, WLPGA

2015 Retail LPG Consumption (Kg per Capita)

11.0

8.3

0.6 1.4

3.2

13.3 16.9

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Vietnam Philippines Bangladesh Pakistan Sub-Saharan Africa India China

Population (MM People) Kg/Capita

Global Average - 17.4 kg

Page 13: th WLPGA Forum : Future Market Outlook Florence, Italy · 11/16/2016  · Global Leader in Maritime LPG “BW LPG’s vision is to be the global leader in maritime LPG.” Proven