David Reidmiller, PhD

Director, National Climate Assessment

U.S. Global Change Research Program

Association of State Floodplain Managers Annual Meeting

The 4th National Climate Assessment and Beyond: Federal Climate Data & Tools to Help

Inform Decisionmaking

May 2, 2017

Overview

1. USGCRP & NCA Background

2. NCA4 Process & Structure

3. Engagement around NCA4

4. Data & Tools: Foundational Elements of Sustained Assessment

US Global Change Research Program

• USGCRP began as a Presidential Initiative in 1989

• Mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), “to assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict and respond to human-induced and natural process of global change”

www.globalchange.gov

National Climate Assessment: A Congressionally-mandated endeavor

Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Section 106):

…not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council… shall prepare… an assessment which –

• integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program (USGCRP) and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings;

• analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and

• analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.

National Climate Assessment Vision

To advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the United States

NCA1 NCA2 NCA3

Building on the Success of NCA3

Five aspects of NCA3 (2014) were crucial to its success:

• Assessment based on broad scientific and technical inputs

• Stakeholder engagement

• Clear communication principles

• Transparency of process and information

• An extensive review process

2. NCA4 Process & Structure

What’s New with NCA4?

Process• Led by a Federal Steering Committee• Each chapter has a Federal Coordinating Lead Author (CLA) and either a

Fed or non-Fed Chapter Lead

Substance• Sustained Assessment framework and process

• Climate Science Special Report underway to provide scientific foundation

• Regional chapters will be given more in-depth treatment• Sectoral chapters will draw upon the regional chapters, providing brief

national overviews• A variety of new climate tools & information • More risk-based framing

NCA4 Chapters

• I: Overview

• II: Our Changing Climate

• III: National Overviews• Water• Energy• Land Cover and Land Use Change • Forests• Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and

Biodiversity• Coastal Effects• Oceans and Marine Resources• Agriculture and Rural Communities• Built Environment, Urban Systems, and

Cities• Transportation• Air Quality NEW!

• Human Health• Tribal and Indigenous Communities• Climate Effects on U.S. International

Interests NEW!

• Sectoral Interdependencies & Compounding Stressors: The Science of Complex Systems NEW!

• IV: Regional Chapters• Northeast• Southeast • US Caribbean NEW!

• Midwest• Northern Great Plains• Southern Great Plains• Northwest• Southwest• Alaska• Hawai`i and Pacific Islands

• V: Response • Near-term Adaptation Needs and Increased

Resiliency

• Mitigation: Avoiding and Reducing Long-term Risks

} EXPANDED!

National Overview Chapters

• Short (~6 pg), national-level overviews of key sectors and cross-cutting topics

• Encouraged to link to agency resources and existing work

• Led by one or more agencies

• Chapter Structure:

• Background/state of the sector

• Roll-up of information from the regional scale

• 2-3 national-scale key messages

• Traceable accounts and references (not part of page limit)

• Response (adaptation and mitigation) will be longer (~10 pg)

Regional Chapters• The “main course” of NCA4 (~20 pages

each)

• Region-specific concerns

• Highlight options, challenges, opportunities, and success stories for minimizing risk

• Chapter Structure:

• Background

• 4-6 Key Messages:

• Linkage between Climate Change and Regional Risks

• Future Climate Change relevant to Regional Risks

• Challenges, Opportunities, Success Stories

• Emerging Issues

• Traceable accounts and references (not part of page limit)

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16

Processes and guidance developed by the Steering Committee

Chapter leadership recruited

Many author teams are complete; some are still recruiting authors

Author teams are scoping out their chapters and developing chapter outlines

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17

Jan 15: Technical Inputs are due

Jan-Mar: Regional Engagement Workshops and Author Team Meetings

Apr: Author Meeting

Jan-Jun: Drafting and Internal Reviews

Jul-Sep: Report Aggregation and Reviews and Author Responses

Sep-Jan 2018: Public and National Academies Reviews

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18

Jan: Responses to Public Review

Jan-Feb:Revisions in response to National Academies comments

Mar-Aug: Reviews and Responses

Sep-Dec: Layout and Final Production

Dec+ : Release and Engagement

Dates are subject to change

3. Engagement around NCA4

Illustrative Engagement Activities

• Series of regional NCA process background / information

sharing webinars for the public

• 10 Regional Engagement Workshops using hub-and-satellite

model

• Sector-specific stakeholder outreach via webinar

• Listening Sessions at major conferences and events

• NCAnet: ncanet.usgcrp.gov

• Federal Register Notices

NCA4 Engagement

Ways to Engage with NCA4

Be a Reviewer / Review Editor

Look for other opportunities to contribute along the way at globalchange.gov/notices

Join / Follow NCAnet

NCAnet participants extend the NCA to a broad audience through the development of assessment-related capacities and products. More information at ncanet.usgcrp.gov

Join the USGCRP Mailing List

globalchange.gov/newsletter-signup

Share ideas, case studies, or resources

http://www.globalchange.gov/content/nca4-outline

Follow NCA4-specific news

Track updates and other news globalchange.gov/nca4

Find us at future events

• National Adaptation Forum (May 2017)

4. Data & Tools: Foundational Elements of Sustained Assessment

Vision for a Sustained Assessment

The quadrennial NCA is a “living timestamp” on a constantly evolving and improving process

• Advance science

• Develop targeted scientific reports and other products that inform and are informed by research priorities

• Create a framework for enduring dialogue with user groups so assessment products are informed by, and therefore tailored to, specific user needs

• A quadrennial “report” may not be the most effective and efficient means of relaying the latest science to an evolving set of stakeholders with evolving needs

Sustained Assessment Products: Traditional

• Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System[2015]

• The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States [2016]

• SOCCR-2: The 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report [in progress]

• Climate Science Special Report [in progress]

Sustained Assessment Products: Novel• Climate Data Initiative (CDI)

www.data.gov/climate/

• Indicators (NOAA, EPA, etc.) www.globalchange.gov/explore/indicators

• LOCA dataset scenarios.globalchange.gov/loca-viewer

• Localized Sea Level Rise / Land Use / Population scenarios (EPA, USGS, etc.) scenarios.globalchange.gov

• State Climate Fact Sheets (NOAA) stateclimatesummaries.globalchange.gov

• Climate Resilience Toolkit (NOAA) toolkit.climate.gov

The aim is to make the NCA a dynamic resource

Climate Data Initiative (CDI)

An effort to leverage the USG’s extensive, freely-available data resources to:

1. Stimulate national climate change preparedness & community resilience, and

2. Make government-held data more accessible to the public, entrepreneurs, researchers and more

climate.data.gov

USGCRP Indicators

• A collection of 11 mostly national-level, annual indicators of observed physical change in the Earth system

• Based on set criteria

• Documentation and data available through GCIS – consistent with NCA requirements

• Adding new indicators & broadening scope over time

• Routine maintenance / updating

Current Indicators Scale

Annual Greenhouse Gas Index Global

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Regional

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Global

Frost Free Season National

Global Surface Temperatures Global

Heating and Cooling Degree Days National

Ocean Chlorophyll Concentrations Regional

Sea Surface Temperatures Global

Start of Spring National

Terrestrial Carbon Storage National

U.S. Surface Temperatures Nationalwww.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators

Indicators and NCA4 RegionsGreat Lakes Water Levels, 1860-2015

Sea Level, 1960-2015

Stream Temperature, 1960-2014 Chesapeake Bay Region

Lake Ice, 1905-2015

Snowpack, 1955-2016

Drought in the Southwest

Glaciers, 1955-2015

Lyme Disease

Snowfall, 1949-2016

Ragweed Pollen Season, 1995-2015

www.epa.gov/climate-indicators

LOCA data

• Localized Constructed Analogs data uses statistical techniques to correct for biases and downscale data to a 1/16th degree spatial resolution

• Averages from 30+ model simulations under various future GHG emissions scenarios (lo, hi, top) for 40 climate variables at 3 timescales (early-, mid-, and late-21st century)

Change in cooling degree days (ºF)Hi warming; late 21st century

scenarios.globalchange.gov

Change in growing season (# days)Lo warming; mid 21st century

Sea Level Rise (SLR) Projections

• Provides both global and regional projections through 2100

• Includes analyses for 6 different scenarios at 1º resolution for CONUS, Alaska, Hawai‘i, Caribbean, and Pacific Islands

• Includes factors such as:o Oceanographic factors

o Dynamic Sea Level Rise

o Changes in Earth’s gravity from ice melt redistribution

o Uplift/subsidence

o Glacial isostatic adjustment

scenarios.globalchange.gov/sea-level-rise

Coastal Flooding

• The report examines recurrence intervals for coastal flooding events

• Chronic 'moderate' flooding is projected under these two scenarios to occur sometime (+/- 5 years) between 2030 and 2060 at a majority of US tide gauges

scenarios.globalchange.gov/sea-level-rise

Population + Land Use Projections

• Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios data (version 2) are based on the 2010 U.S. Census and use fertility, mortality and immigration rates from the Wittgenstein Centre to project decadal population to 2100 (i.e., consistent with demographic assumptions of the SSP2 and SSP5 socioeconomic scenarios)

www.epa.gov/iclus

Land Use Projections (ICLUS v1)

https://iclus.epa.gov/iclus/

Housing density under “A2 scenario” of slower economic, but high population growth

2010 2100

Land Use Projections (ICLUS v2 - beta)

SSP2

SSP5

2010

2100

NOAA State Summaries• Developed in response to demand for

more local information after NCA3

• Three Key Messages for each state on observed and projected climate trends

• Also includes 7-10 figures tailored to each state

• Available for all 50 states (Puerto Rico in development)

• Available online and as printable 4-page spreads

• Supplemental figures (n = ~1500) also available online (e.g., hot days, warm nights, days below freezing, etc.)

stateclimatesummaries.globalchange

NOAA State Summaries• Missouri Key Message: Missouri has experienced an increase in heavy rain

events, a trend which is projected to continue. Future increases in winter precipitation will pose a continued risk of spring planting delays and increased flooding along rivers and streams.

• Missouri KM: Severe drought, a natural part of Missouri’s climate, is a risk to this agriculture-dependent state. Future increases in evaporation rates due to higher temperatures may increase the intensity of naturally-occurring droughts.

stateclimatesummaries.globalchange.gov

Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT)

• Provides information to meet the information needs of communities, citizens, businesses, resources managers, planners, and policy leaders

• Key components include:

• Climate Explorer; Steps to Resilience; Case Studies; and Federal Resources Database

toolkit.climate.gov

Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PReP)

A public-private collaboration to empower a data-driven approach to

building climate resilience among:

• Federal agencies

• Non-governmental organizations

• Private-sector companies

• Civil-society organizations

Jointly coordinated by USGCRP & WRI, PReP aims to enable climate

resilience by:

• Engaging communities and facilitating ongoing conversations

• Identifying and reducing the barriers to access, contribute, and use data

• Developing an open-source platform

www.prepdata.org

Resilience Dialogues

• Public-private collaboration co-managed by USGCRP and AGU’s Thriving Earth Exchange

• An effort to provide customized, facilitated consultations to communities entering into climate vulnerability assessments and resilience and preparedness planning

• Five communities participated in pilot dialogues (March 2016)

• Ten communities selected to participate in beta dialogues (2017)o Collaboration with community networkso Diverse range of climate impacts, geographies, and community typeso Three cohorts participating in March, April, May

www.resiliencedialogues.org

Climate Data Initiative (CDI)

Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT)

Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PReP)

Resilience Dialogues

Collecting / organizing climate data

Data products and toolsfor informing decisions

Direct connection to decision-makers

Internal External

Global Change Information

System (GCIS)

A Sustained Assessment Ecosystem

Indicators

LOCA data

SLR projections

ICLUS projections

State Climate Summaries

National Climate Assessment

@usgcrp

usgcrp

GlobalChange.gov

Connect with us:

Contact Us

www.globalchange.gov/nca4

David Reidmiller

dreidmiller@usgcrp.gov

Sustained Assessment Products: Additional Resources

• Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples: A Synthesis of Current Impacts and Experiences. Key frameworks informing indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigationhttp://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/53156

• Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action (CIRA2.0). Estimates the physical and monetary benefits to the U.S. of reducing global GHG emissions in 2050 and 2090 for more than 20 sectors www.epa.gov/cira

Sustained Assessment: Vision and Motivation

Vision• The quadrennial NCA is a “living timestamp” on a constantly evolving

and improving process

• Advancing science

• Developing targeted scientific reports and other products that inform and are informed by research priorities

• Creating a framework for enduring dialogue with various user groups so assessment products are informed by, and therefore tailored to, more specific needs and decision points

Motivation • Avoiding ramp-up and high activation energy

• Maintaining momentum

• Mainstreaming climate considerations into decision-making

Engagement: Internal

• Federal Steering Committee• Author training webinars on the variety

of tools at their disposal• CSSR, Resources website, CIRA, Scenarios,

Risk-Based Framing, Indicators

• Resources portal for authors• Weekly email updates, monthly calls• Chapter Work Plans• Regionally-distributed Sustained

Assessment Specialists at RSOs• Dedicated USGCRP points-of-contact

CLA Meeting, Oct 2016

Southwest REW, Feb 2017

Regional Engagement Workshops: Results

• Educating regional stakeholders on the process

• Receiving input to chapter development (aligned to chapter template)

• Articles, reports, planning documents to cite

• Case studies to highlight

Each REW will result in a Summary Report to be shared with all NCA4 authors and made publicly available on: globalchange.gov/nca4

Northern Great Plains REW, Feb 2017

Key Findings

• Northeast Atlantic and western Gulf of Mexico coasts – Regional SLR is projected to be 0.3-0.5+ meters greater than the global average for almost all scenarios by 2100

• Pacific Northwest and Alaska coasts – Regional SLR is projected to be 0.1-1 meter less than the global average under the low- to intermediate scenarios by 2100

• Along almost all U.S. coasts outside Alaska, RSL is projected to be higher than the global average under the Intermediate-High, High and Extreme scenarios (e.g., 0.3-1 m or more RSL rise by the year 2100 than GMSL rise under the High scenario).