texas political atlas
DESCRIPTION
The Political Atlas of Texas displays Presidential election returns (2000, 2004, 2008) and census data (2000) by county. Some slides show the distribution of the total population, (27% of all Texans live in Harris and Dallas Counties.) Some show ethnic distribution. Since we are talking about election returns we mostly use Voting Age Population (VAP) rather than total population. The census data includes the Voting Rights Act ethnic variables that must be considered in redistricting as well as median age, median income, and educational attainment. One interesting slide shows that about 20% of Texas’ 254 counties have more registered voters than VAP. (Conspiracy theorists don’t worry! There’s nothing evil going on here! Twenty percent is about the average for the 3000 counties in the country. Voting data is 2008. VAP is 2000. And, of course, there is the Hispanic undercount.) Lastly, there is an analysis that shows how the GOP vote percentage in each county is affected by the census variables. --Bill HobbyTRANSCRIPT
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A Political Atlas of Texas
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Texas Politics and Demography
By County
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Texas is a Rural State
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% of State Population(24,326,974 )
COUNTIES %Harris 16.3Dallas 10.6Tarrant 6.9Bexar 6.7Travis 3.9El Paso 3.3Hidalgo 2.7
Collin 2.4Denton 2.1Fort Bend 1.7Cameron 1.6Nueces 1.5Montgomery 1.4Jefferson 1.2Galveston 1.2Williamson 1.2Lubbock 1.2Brazoria 1.2Bell 1.1McLennan 1.0
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75 - 10050 - 7525 - 500 - 25
GOP % 2004Bush (61) v. Kerry (38)
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X $1,000
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Asian VAP %
Asians cluster in
• Research centers (Harris, Fort Bend, Travis, Williamson, Dallas, Collin, Denton).
• Barrier islands (Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Aransas). Vietnamese fishermen.
• Fort Hood (Bell, Coryell) Military wives and families.
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97.7 - 200.0
87.1 - 97.5
78.1 - 86.6
55.9 - 77.7
Registered Voters/VAP %
EscapeesPolk County
Non-escapeesWalker County
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Registered Voters/VAP %
• Polk County is highest (132%) because about 12,000 Escapees* roam the country in their RVs but register to vote at Rainbow’s End Park to escape income taxes in other states.
• Walker County is lowest (59%) because about 25% VAP are non‐escapees from the three prisons at Huntsville.
• Registered Voters data is 2008. VAP data is 2000.
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Do the math!• Counties get redder as age and income
increase and population decreases.• GOP% goes up with age, 1.54% per year.• GOP% goes up with income, .64% per
$1,000.• GOP% goes down with population:
– 2.4% per 1% of state population.– 0.1% per 10,000 people.
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The mark of a truly educated man is to be moved deeply by statistics.
George Bernard ∑haw
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With thanks to:Professor Jim Granato
Director, UH Center for Public Policy
Saumitra Vaidya
Research Assistant
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Texas Political Atlas:http://www.uh.edu/cpp/texaspoliticalatlas.pdf
See also:http://www.uh.edu/cpp/election2004.htm