texas housing insight · 2020. 3. 30. · 3 real estate center economists continuously monitor many...

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TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT LUIS B. TORRES RESEARCH ECONOMIST JAMES P. GAINES CHIEF ECONOMIST WESLEY MILLER RESEARCH ASSOCIATE PAIGE SILVA RESEARCH ASSOCIATE TECHNICAL REPORT 2120 2019 ANNUAL SUMMARY

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Page 1: Texas Housing Insight · 2020. 3. 30. · 3 Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Texas Housing Insight is a

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHTLUIS B. TORRES

RESEARCH ECONOMISTJAMES P. GAINESCHIEF ECONOMIST WESLEY MILLER

RESEARCH ASSOCIATE

PAIGE SILVARESEARCH ASSOCIATE T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T

2 1 2 02 0 1 9 A N N U A L S U M M A R Y

Page 2: Texas Housing Insight · 2020. 3. 30. · 3 Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Texas Housing Insight is a

About This Report ................................................................................................................................. 3

2019 Annual Summary .......................................................................................................................... 4

Supply .................................................................................................................................................... 8

Texas Residential Construction Index ............................................................................................... 8

New Vacant Developed Lots ............................................................................................................. 8

Single-Family Housing Construction Permits .................................................................................... 9

Texas Housing Construction Permits ................................................................................................ 9

Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits .......................................................... 10

Total Housing Starts per Capita ...................................................................................................... 10

Major Metros Single-Family Housing Starts ................................................................................... 11

Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value ..................................................................... 11

Total Months of Inventory .............................................................................................................. 12

Texas Months of Inventory by Price Cohort ................................................................................... 12

Texas Current Months of Inventory by Price Cohort ...................................................................... 13

Texas Existing and New Home Months of Inventory...................................................................... 13

Major Metros Existing Home Months of Inventory ....................................................................... 14

Major Metros New Home Months of Inventory ............................................................................ 14

Demand ............................................................................................................................................... 15

Total Housing Sales ......................................................................................................................... 15

Texas Total Housing Sales by Price Cohort ..................................................................................... 15

Major Metros Total Housing Sales.................................................................................................. 16

Major Metros New Home Sales ...................................................................................................... 16

Home Ownership Rate .................................................................................................................... 17

Major Metros Home Ownership Rate ............................................................................................ 17

Texas Homes Days on Market ........................................................................................................ 18

Texas Home Days on Market by Price Cohort ................................................................................ 18

Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market .............................................................................. 19

Major Metros New Homes Days on Market ................................................................................... 19

30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield ...................................................................... 20

Texas Mortgage Applications ......................................................................................................... 20

Page 3: Texas Housing Insight · 2020. 3. 30. · 3 Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Texas Housing Insight is a

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Prices ................................................................................................................................................... 21

United States Existing and New Home Median Sales Price............................................................ 21

Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ........................................................................ 21

Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price .......................................................................... 22

Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price ............................................................................... 22

Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ................................................................................... 23

Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ......................................................... 23

Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot .............................................................. 24

Texas Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio ....................................................................................... 24

Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio ............................................................ 25

Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio ................................................................. 25

Repeat Sales Housing Price Index ................................................................................................... 26

Housing Opportunity Index ............................................................................................................ 26

Page 4: Texas Housing Insight · 2020. 3. 30. · 3 Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Texas Housing Insight is a

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Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas

economies. Texas Housing Insight is a summary of important economic indicators that help discern

trends in the Texas housing markets. All measurements are calculated annually, unless stated

otherwise.

This monthly publication provides data and insights on the Texas housing markets. We hope you

find them useful. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to

[email protected].

Dr. James Gaines, Dr. Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Silva

Data current as of January 27, 2020

© 2020, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

Page 5: Texas Housing Insight · 2020. 3. 30. · 3 Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Texas Housing Insight is a

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Texas housing sales recovered from a 2018 slowdown as homes sold through the Multiple Listing

Services (MLS) increased 3.8 percent in 2019. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to a three-year

low, which, along with steady economic growth at both the national and state levels, bolstered

housing demand. Although inventories remained constrained, especially for homes priced less than

$300,000, home-price appreciation slowed for the third straight year. Housing affordability, which

has supported Texas’ population and economic growth since the housing crisis, remains the

greatest challenge to the Texas home market.

Single-family sales are projected to accelerate 6.4 percent in 2020, assuming mortgage rates

remain relatively low and economic activity continues. Anticipated increases in supply-side activity,

as indicated by improved vacant lot development, permit issuance, and housing starts, should keep

price appreciation at more manageable levels than during the recovery period following the mid-

decade oil bust. (For additional commentary, see the 2020 Texas Housing & Economic Outlook at

www.recenter.tamu.edu.)

Supply*

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction

activity, rose 2.2 percent annually as industry employment increased. Momentum should continue

into 2020 as indicated by the Texas Residential Construction Leading Index, which reached its

highest level since before the Great Recession. Relatively low interest rates and upward-trending

housing permits and starts supported the positive outlook.

In response to supply shortages, developers accelerated activity at the earliest stage of the

construction cycle. According to Metrostudy, the number of new vacant developed lots (VDLs) in

the Texas Urban Triangle reached its highest level in the post-recessionary period at more than

107,000, resulting in 11.2 percent annual growth. Much of the development in Houston and San

Antonio were for homes intended to sell for less than $300,000. Austin developed a record 22,000

lots, although higher construction costs forced most of the development into the $200,000-

$400,000 range. Activity in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) stepped back after eight consecutive annual

increases but remained elevated compared with the metro’s five-year average.

* All measurements are calculated annually, unless stated otherwise.

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Increased lot development in Central Texas pushed single-family housing construction permits up

2.4 percent. Austin issued a record-high 18,100 permits while San Antonio activity accelerated to

9,100 permits. Despite rising VDLs in Houston, permits flattened after exceeding 40,000 in 2018 for

the first time since 2007. Meanwhile in North Texas, issuance declined 3.1 percent to 35,100

permits, driven by a moderate decrease in Dallas-Plano-Irving.

Total Texas housing starts faltered to start the year but finished strong, increasing 11.5 percent as

the single-family sector gained momentum in the second half of 2019. Per Metrostudy, starts for

single-family homes priced less than $200,000 rose for the first time since 2012, signaling renewed

efforts to provide residences at the lower end of the price spectrum. Housing starts in that bottom

price range, however, constituted only 6 percent of the 98,400 single-family homes that broke

ground in the major metros. Most of the improvement was due to surges in Austin and San

Antonio, corresponding to similar trends in VDLs and permits. Starts in DFW and Houston flattened,

comprising two-thirds of Texas metropolitan starts, the lowest share in series history.

A total of $32.1 billion of new construction poured into Texas’ single-family market amid economic

and population growth. Single-family private construction values, however, declined 5.7 percent

annually after adjusting for inflation. The ratio of construction value per housing start trended

downward for most of 2019, a result of homebuilders’ efforts to boost supply at the lower end of

the market. At the metro level, Houston construction values normalized after an 8.2 percent

increase in 2018 due to Hurricane Harvey rebuilding efforts. DFW values dropped for the second

straight year as supply-side metrics stagnated. On the bright side, Central Texas activity continued

to trend up, although Austin showed signs of decelerating.

Texas’ total months of inventory (MOI) fell to 3.1 months due to record-breaking sales; however,

increased residential construction supported active listings as the MOI steadied at its three-year

average. A total MOI of around six months is considered a balanced housing market. Inventory fell

across all price cohorts, but homes priced less than $300,000 fared the worst with only 2.6 months

of supply. The MOI for luxury homes (priced more than $500,000) was 5.5 months. This disparity

exemplifies the shortage of affordable housing, although efforts have been made to more closely

match demand and supply.

After improvement the previous year in all the major metros, only San Antonio’s MOI extended the

upward trend, ticking up to 3.2 months. Fort Worth inventory flattened at 2.1 months. Austin’s

metric experienced the steepest decrease with inventories the most constrained in 20 years,

dropping to 1.8 months as accelerated sales chipped away at active listings. Positive momentum in

early supply measures, however, bodes well for Austin inventory in 2020. The Dallas and Houston

MOIs fell to 2.4 and 3.4 months, respectively, amid rapid sales, but increased supply tempered the

decline.

Demand

A record 356,576 Texas homes sold through MLSs in 2019, accelerating 3.8 percent. The bottom

end of the market (homes priced less than $200,000) continued to drag on activity due to a lack of

supply and rising construction costs but did not hinder total sales from exceeding the national pace

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(1.1 percent) for the third straight year. Some of the 2019 growth can be attributed to softer sales

in the previous year due to interest rate hikes, but the average 2018–19 growth was a respectable

3 percent.

At the metropolitan level, Austin led with annual growth of 5.9 percent, followed by San Antonio

sales, which climbed 5.7 percent. In Houston, transactions matched 2018 improvement of 3.4

percent. North Texas sales increased 3.8 and 1.4 percent in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively,

after falling the previous year as the market adjusted to steep home-price appreciation between

2013–17.

In the new-home market, all four major metros recorded positive growth for the second

consecutive year. Metrostudy data revealed Houston new-home sales increased 9.2 percent,

exceeding pre-oil bust levels. Houston’s market share of new homes sold in the major metros,

however, slid from 41 percent as early as 2017 to just over one-third. DFW and Austin gained

market share as new-home sales increased 6.1 and 14.9 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, San

Antonio sold 12,700 new homes, marking the best year since before the housing crisis.

Homeownership across the country flattened at 64.5 percent and decreased slightly in Texas to

62.4 percent. Although the recent rise in home purchases by millennials relieved some of the

downward pressure associated with an aging population, many potential homeowners struggle

with saving enough money for a down payment. On the positive side, the decrease in

homeownership may be partially due to an increasing number of young adults forming their own

households, in which case the first step is typically renting versus buying a home, as they become

financially independent. Moreover, net domestic migration as a portion of Texas’ overall

population growth in 2019 rose to its highest level since 2006 at 34.2 percent. Movers from other

states likely added to the household count but may not have been able to purchase a home right

away. On the metro level, San Antonio maintained the highest homeownership rate at 62.5 percent

despite declining relative to 2018. The metric in DFW also decreased, falling to 60.7 percent. Austin

and Houston, on the other hand, registered increases in homeownership, pushing the rate up to

59.0 and 61.3 percent, respectively.

Amid solid economic growth, Texas’ average days on market (DOM) balanced at 59 days,

corroborating robust housing demand. San Antonio’s DOM matched that of the statewide measure

versus 57 days in 2018 as inventory increased. The metric moved similarly in Houston as the

average home sold after 57 days compared with 56 days the previous year. Demand softened in

DFW but remained strong relative to the rest of the state, averaging 53 and 43 days in Dallas and

Fort Worth, respectively. After ticking up for four straight years in Austin, the metro’s DOM

stabilized at 55 days.

Interest rates fell through the first three quarters of 2019 and hovered at levels unseen since the

mid-decade oil bust as the national economy continued to grow in its longest expansion on record.

Uncertainty regarding trade disputes and the slowing global economy pulled long-term rates below

those for short-term instruments (inverting the yield curve) to start the second half of the year but

has since reverted to normal conditions. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield averaged 2.1

Page 8: Texas Housing Insight · 2020. 3. 30. · 3 Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Texas Housing Insight is a

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percent while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate shed 60 basis

points, falling to 3.9 percent. Texans capitalized on lower rates, pushing mortgage applications for

home purchases up 26.7 percent compared with 2018. Refinance mortgage applications, which are

more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, nearly tripled during the same time period.

Prices

Despite low inventory and increased sales, home-price appreciation decelerated to its slowest pace

since 2011. The Texas median home price jumped 3.2 percent annually relative to growth of 4.3

percent in 2018. Although the growth rate moderated, the median price reached an all-time high of

$240,000, a $7,500 increase. Some of the upward pressure may be due to a distributional shift in

sales activity away from homes priced below $100,000.

Median price appreciation in Texas’ major metros moderated. The median home price in Austin

($315,000) and San Antonio ($230,000), rose 3.3 and 3.6 percent, respectively. Fort Worth’s

median home price climbed 5 percent but just surpassed the statewide average at $243,600, while

the Dallas metric increased 2.5 percent to $292,000. Houston was the exception where the median

price growth rate accelerated from 3.1 to 4.3 percent in 2019, resulting in a $10,000 hike to

$245,000.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index, a better measure of changes in single-family home

values, provides insight into how Texas home prices evolve. The index rose 3.8 percent year over

year (YOY) in 4Q2019, matching the growth rate in 4Q2018. In Austin, the index was more in line

with economic theory as it pertains to dwindling supply and rising demand than the metro’s

median price, accelerating 5.4 percent relative to 2.9 percent the previous year. San Antonio’s

index exhibited upward pressure, rising 4.2 percent as sales activity picked up. The Dallas and Fort

Worth indexes continued to reduce pace to 2.2 and 4.0 percent growth, respectively, after

increasing about 8 percent mid-decade. Houston’s metric experienced steady growth at 2.6

percent.

Slower home-price appreciation and lower interest rates boosted housing affordability. The

National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index measures the

share of homes sold that would have been affordable to a family earning the local median income,

based on standard mortgage underwriting criteria. In 3Q2019, the national estimate was 64.3

percent, up nearly 7 percentage points from one year prior. In Texas, the major metros reported

increased affordability. Austin was the most affordable with an index value of 66.1, an

improvement of 11.3 percentage points from 3Q2018. The San Antonio and Houston indices were

close behind at 64.9 and 64.6 percent, respectively. Although affordability rose in Dallas and Fort

Worth, the proportion of homes that families earning the local median income could afford fell

below the nationwide average at 57.8 and 62.7 percent, respectively. Texas enjoyed greater

affordability than the rest of the country in the years prior to and immediately following the Great

Recession, but, it has recently seen a decline in affordability. Continued improvement is important

to Texas’ demographic advantages that have supported the state’s economic prosperity over the

past decade.

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Note: Annual average. Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Note: Annual sum. Source: Metrostudy

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

TX Coincident Index US Coincident Index TX Leading Index

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Austin Dallas-Fort Worth

Houston San Antonio

Texas Residential Construction Index (Index 2000 = 100)

New Vacant Developed Lots

(Inventory)

Page 10: Texas Housing Insight · 2020. 3. 30. · 3 Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Texas Housing Insight is a

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Note: Annual sum. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual sum. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

United States

Texas

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Single Family Homes 2-4 Family Homes

5+ Family Homes

Single-Family Housing Construction Permits (Index 2000 = 100)

Texas Housing Construction Permits (Index 2000 = 100)

Page 11: Texas Housing Insight · 2020. 3. 30. · 3 Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Texas Housing Insight is a

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Note: Annual sum. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual sum. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

United States Texas

Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits (Index 2000 = 100)

Total Housing Starts Per Capita

(Index 2000 = 100)

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Note: Annual sum. Source: Metrostudy

Note: Annual sum. Source: Dodge Analytics

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin Dallas-Fort Worth

Houston San Antonio

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Texas

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Single-Family Housing Starts

(Index 2003 = 100)

Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value

(Index 2008 = 100)

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Note: Annual average. Months of inventory for the United States is estimated using weights for all existing homes and new single-family homes; new nonsingle-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information, see Months of Inventory. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual average. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

United States

Texas

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

$0-$199,000 $200,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,99

$500,000+

Total Months of Inventory (Months)

Texas Months of Inventory by Price Cohort (Months)

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Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Texas Existing and New Home Months of Inventory

(Months)

Note: Annual average. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

3.0 3.0

3.94.5

8.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

$0 - $200K $200K - $300K $300K - $400K $400K - $500K $500K+

3

4

5

6

7

8

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Existing Months of Inventory

New Months of Inventory

Texas Current Months of Inventory by Price Cohort (December 2019)

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Major Metros Existing Home Months of Inventory

(Months)

Note: Annual average. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual average. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros New Home Months of Inventory (Months)

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Note: Annual sum. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information see Housing Sales. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual sum. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

United States Texas

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

$0-$199,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,99 $500,000+ Total

Total Housing Sales (Index 2000 = 100)

Texas Total Housing Sales by Price Cohort (Index 2011 = 100)

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Note: Annual sum. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual sum. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin Dallas-Fort Worth

Houston San Antonio

Major Metros Total Housing Sales (Index 2000 = 100)

Major Metros New Home Sales (Index 2003 = 100)

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Note: Annual average. Source: United States Census Bureau

Note: Annual average. Source: United States Census Bureau

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin

Dallas-Fort Worth

Houston

San Antonio

Home Ownership Rate (%)

Major Metros Home Ownership Rate (%)

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Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Existing Days on Market

New Days on Market

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

$0-$199,000 $200,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,99

$500,000+

Texas Homes Days on Market (Days)

Texas Home Days on Market by Price Cohort (Days)

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Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market (Days)

Major Metros New Homes Days on Market (Days)

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Note: Annual average. Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Mortgage Bond

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Refinance Purchase

30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield

(Percent)

Texas Mortgage Applications

(Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

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Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Existing Home Median Sales Price

New Home Median Sales Price

135,000

155,000

175,000

195,000

215,000

235,000

255,000

275,000

295,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Existing Median Price

New Median Price

Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ($)

United States Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ($)

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Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

120,000

170,000

220,000

270,000

320,000

370,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

175,000

195,000

215,000

235,000

255,000

275,000

295,000

315,000

335,000

355,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price ($)

Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price ($)

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Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Existing HomeMedian Price PSF

New HomeMedian Price PSF

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)

Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)

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24

Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Existing Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio

New Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio

Texas Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio (%)

Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)

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25

Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Annual average. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio (%)

Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio (%)

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Note: The Repeat Sales Housing Price Index tracks real home price appreciation for residential single-family homes.

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Seasonally adjusted. The Housing Opportunity Index for a given area is defined as the share of homes sold in that area that

would have been affordable to a family earning the local median income, based on standard mortgage underwriting criteria.

Sources: National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Texas Austin Dallas

Fort Worth Houston San Antonio

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

United StatesAustin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-Sugar Land-BaytownSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Housing Opportunity Index (%)

Repeat Sales Home Price Index (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

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i

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MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL

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GARY W. MALER

TROY ALLEY, JR. DeSoto

RUSSELL CAIN Port Lavaca

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ALVIN COLLINS, CHAIRMAN Andrews

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