1TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE

September 3rd – September 6th

Predictive Services Department

Texas Fire Potential Update

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Fire Potential Notes

• Rain chances continue in the state through Saturday. Warmer and mostly dry conditions will return for Sunday and Monday.

• Fuel Dryness products are catching up with ongoing rainfall and are beginning to outline regions that have seen significant improvement in fuel moistures.

• Dry and critically dry fuels are still present across southwest portions of the state.

• Forecast thunderstorm activity in the southwestern portion of the state Friday and Saturday will produce high initial attack potential and moderate significant fire potential.

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Expect a significant decrease in fire activity this week as dry and critically dry fuels are restricted to the southwest portion of the state.

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A multi day rain event has produced long duration rainfall with significant amounts in north central Texas and northeast Texas. The 10 day estimated rainfall also captures the rainfall produced by Hurricane Laura along the Texas and Louisiana border. More rainfall is in the forecast through Saturday.

10 DayEstimated Rainfall

10 DayEstimated Rainfall

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Thursday AM Through Sunday AM Rainfall Forecast

The rainfall footprint will shift south and east over the next 3 days. Scattered thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday in southwest Texas will produce high initial attack potential in the dry to critically dry fuelbeds.

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30 Day Percent of Normal Rainfall

As of Thursday morning, 30 day rainfall deficits persist for the majority of the state. 25% of normal rainfall deficits are most prevalent in the southwest portion of the state.

Rainfall deficits will be reduced through next Thursday with rainfall in the forecast. The location and extent of these expected reductions will be better defined next week.

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The footprint of dry and critically dry fuel has decreased since last Friday due to the multiday rain event for a large area of the state. This significant improvement in fuel

moisture has decreased the potential for wildfire occurrence. Underlying risk for wildfire occurrence remains where pockets of dry to critically dry fuel are forecast for

the southwest part of the state.

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For this update we choose to show a PSA where fuel moisture has increased and ERC values are trending down. The Cross Timbers PSA has shown the greatest improvement.

ERC values in one PSA are still above the 90th percentile and 4 other PSA are trending above normal.

ERC Seasonal Trends

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PSA Observed

High Plains Above Normal

Southern Plains Above Normal

Trans Pecos Above Normal

Western Hill Country Above 90th Percentile

Rolling Plains Near Normal

Eastern Hill Country Near Normal

Cross Timbers Below Normal

Central Texas Near Normal

North Texas Below Normal

Western Pineywoods Below Normal

Northeast Texas Below Normal

Southeast Texas Below Normal

South Texas Above Normal

Gulf Coast Near Normal

ERC Seasonal Graphs

https://ticc.tamu.edu/PredictiveServices/erc_seasonal.aspx

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A combination of dry to critically dry fuels and moderate to high fire danger will produce low to moderate initial attack potential today.

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Maximum Temperatures will trend cooler today through Saturday as Thunderstorm chances increase for southwest Texas on Friday and Saturday.

Thursday Saturday

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Expect high potential for initial attack activity in southwest Texas Friday and Saturday. Scattered thunderstorm activity with lightning will increase ignition chances in dry tocritically dry fuels. Friday’s fire weather elements shown below are representative for Friday and Saturday. Despite forecast RH values above 30%, high initial attack potential is expected due to increased wind, dry fuels and lightning potential.

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Sunday AM Through Tuesday AM Rainfall Forecast

Upper level high pressure will return briefly Sunday into Monday and effectively end the multi-day rain event. Only isolated afternoon storms are forecast for the period.

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Initial attack potential will be low to moderate on Sunday in southwest Texas. Rain chances are forecast to end on Sunday. There may be some potential for holdover lightning ignitions to emerge as RH values drop to near or below 30%.

Sunday Fire Potential

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Tuesday AM Through Thursday AM Rainfall Forecast

A cold front is forecast to enter the state early next week and bring both cooler temperatures and increased rain chances. Forecast rainfall amounts and coverage are still being debated and will likely change over the next 6 days.

Surface Forecast Tuesday Morning