Texas and Commercial Space Presentation to 31st Texas Aviation

Conference 14 May 2013

Chip Hill, Director Space Engineering Research Center

Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station 979.845.8768

hill@tamu.edu

Virgin Galactic Spaceship Two

Courtesy Virgin Galactic

Presentation Objective

Describe the Commercial Space industry and discuss areas of interest for Texas Aviation

– Introductions – Definitions – Aviation and other thoughts

Space Engineering Research Center

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• Originally chartered as a NASA Commercial Space Center (mid 80’s) to support technology (space) testing and commercialization

• Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station (TEES) Center pursuing interdisciplinary aerospace activities

• Expertise/programs in thermal control, visible cameras (star trackers), energy storage, solar power, two phase flow, image processing, zero gravity testing, power beaming

• Industry, government and university associations to compete for government/industry contracts and grants

Testing on NASA Zero Gravity aircraft

Student space group

Some Definitions… • Let’s consider altitude regimes –

“Near Space”, Orbital, and beyond Orbital

• Near Space is area between “airspace” and Outer Space, ~20 km (12 miles) to 100 km (62 miles)

• Traditional Low Earth Orbit altitude starts at 160 km (99 miles)

• Near Space traversed by high altitude balloons and suborbital vehicles

• Outer Space (including beyond Orbital) typically the province of Government and Civil (satellite) programs (Satellites $170B/year)

View of Space from 30 km

What is Commercial Space?

• Means many things to many people, but recommend:

1. Derives most/all its funding from Non-governmental sources

2. Pursues a business model based on delivering cargo or humans to space (orbital or suborbital)

3. For the purposes of this talk, focused on commercial human spaceflight

• Typically Non (space)-traditional players • First really new stimulus to space imagination since Apollo

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Suborbital flight profile for XCOR Lynx space plane

The Business Opportunities… • Suborbital launch of payloads (experiments) and humans (tourists)

— Several providers, operations probably in the next year or two — Virgin Galactic order backlog – 500+ at $200,000 per person — Ballistic trajectories… but also “ricochet” trajectories? (point to point) — Technology doable… risks manageable?

• Orbital transportation of payloads and humans NASA funded Commercial Crew Program already exists “Grow to” business model for several/most launch providers Numerous concepts… Bigelow Aerospace inflatable space hotel Technology more daunting… large risk increase

• Beyond Orbital missions being discussed — Asteroid mining (Planetary Resources), Lunar transportation/habitation

(Golden Spike), Mars mission (Mars One – 78,000 respondents) • Potential new industries, facilities, jobs (one estimate, $3.3B

suborbital launch market by 2020)*

*XCOR research

Who’s Involved… • Billionaires who have started or invested in space enterprise/

tourism ventures* – Paul Allen, Co-founder of Microsoft – Larry Page, Co-founder and CEO Google, Inc. – Eric E. Schmidt, Executive Chairman of Google, Inc. – Ram Shriram, Founding board member of Google, Inc. – Jeff Bezos, Founder of Amazon.com – Sir Richard Branson, Founder of the Virgin Companies – Elon Musk, Co-founder of PayPal – Robert Bigelow, Founder of the Budget Suites hotel chain – Charles Simonyi, Ph.D., Chairman and CTO, International Software – Ross Perot, Jr., Chairman of the Perot Group

Producer/director/explorer James Cameron, advisor to some of these ventures

*From Space Tourism Society

The Business Case…

• Operations have to be sustainable without Government funds

• Sustainable means profitable • Profitable possibly depends on

the “Virtuous Cycle”* • Tipping point for Venture Capital? • Safety/risk unknown, especially orbital transportation (insurance

model?) • Role of Government and Government regulation

– Experimental airworthiness certificate versus commercial launch license – Space Coast Guard?*

*DSER Strategy Group *Commercial Spaceflight Federation

Commercial Space in Texas • First-rate Texas aerospace industry,

military, & university research • Resources/facilities (NASA/JSC, SWRI) • Commercial space company activity

SpaceX – McGregor engine plant, vertical ascent/descent launch pad

XCOR – starting R&D and HQ facility in Midland Armadillo Aerospace – HQ in Heath Blue Origin – launch facility in Van Horn Texas presence – Boeing, Sierra

Nevada, etc. Spaceport proposals

SpaceX Falcon 9

Armadillo Aerospace Stig B

Blue Origin New Shepard

XCOR Lynx/Payload Pod

Commercial Space Status – Industry is forming

—National & State advocacy groups, National conferences —~ 20 companies exploring launch or related services —Variety of business models (SpaceX servicing the

International Space Station - to zero-gravity tourist flights) – Other States got a head start on Texas (California, Florida,

New Mexico, etc.), but… —Industry reps met with Gov. Perry last July —Office of Economic Development & Tourism

and Texas Workforce Commission engaged —Various legislative agendas —Regional economic development activities —Houston-centered activities involving NASA

Gov. Perry examining Lynx space plane

Relationship to Aviation • Commercial space commonalities with aviation industry

—Spaceports/airports, flight safety, workforce training, legal, flight testing

—Operations are similar for much of the flight profile, airspace integration more similar than for Unmanned Aerial Systems

—Transportation profit metric (payload/frequency/safety) – like when aviation went from carrying mail to passengers?

• Similar feeder industries • Leverage existing aviation network/infrastructure to

work commercial space advocacy and growth

Virgin Galactic White Knight Two/Spaceship Two XCOR Lynx Mark 1 Sierra Nevada Dream Chaser

FAA is Involved

• FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation (CST) • Industry “self-regulating” until 2015 • Centers of Excellence for CST (UT Medical Branch) • FAA Aviation R&D Research Grant (Commercial Space

Transportation) – Safety and Orbital Debris – Coordination of reusable launch vehicle operations within the air

traffic control system – Human Factors and Aviation Medicine (space planes) – Aircraft Safety Technology (space planes) – Aviation Weather

SERC & Commercial Space • Marketing useful space skills (e.g. zero gravity testing) • Connecting dots (e.g. Shuttle Mission Simulator

at Texas A&M) • Supporting Commercial Space initiatives (we are

not an economic development group) • NASA/Johnson fluids test cassette planned

for suborbital test (likely launch provider Virgin Galactic)

• Payload carrier development for XCOR Lynx • International Space Station Implementation

Partner • Payload integrator for XCOR Lynx • Technical support for student space science

and engineering flight opportunities*

Shuttle Mission Simulator

Lynx Cub Carrier Student Team

*Space Education and Innovation Center

Anticipating Commercial Space Needs • Difficult to define space growth areas and timing • Need to bring Texas Commercial Space interests together to

discuss relevant issues and create an environment for success and opportunities

• Proposing a one day workshop – presentations/panels, moderated topical breakout sessions, discussion on Way Forward

• Desired Outcome: Identify interest groups that have highest likelihood of continuing to contribute value, develop plans for ongoing activities

• Role for Aviation community

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Texas Commercial Space Workshop • Establish Working Panels in specific areas to continue the

dialog and shape the agenda for future workshops • Suggested Topic Areas/Panels

– Research & New Initiatives – Education & Workforce Development – Economic Development & Infrastructure – Government & Policy

• Conference tentatively Fall (September) 2013, College Station • If you have input: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/JMQT5NX • Updates on my website, http://serc.tamu.edu

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Here are some Space Tourists

Courtesy Space Adventures

Summary

• Commercial Space emerging as a recognizable, potentially viable industry

• Significant base of support in Texas • Aviation community awareness could help

identify and facilitate regional, economic, educational, and political activities to grow this in Texas

• Questions?