testing the koyck scheme of sales response to advertising...

Testing the Koyck Scheme of Sales Response to Advertising:

An Aggregation-Independent Autocorrelation Test

Wilfried R. Vanhonacker*

October 1990

* Professor of Marketing, INSEAD, Boulevard de Constance,

77305 Fontainebleau, France.

Testing the Koyck Scheme of Sales Response to Advertising:

An Aggregation-Independent Autocorrelation Test

ABSTRACT

The Koyck scheme has been a popular assumption in the dynamic modeling of sales

response to advertising. This paper proposes an autocorrelation test to assess whether

or not available sales series arise from a Koyck-type distributed lag scheme. The test is

based on the peculiar nature of the autocovariances of sales series under the Koyck

assumption. Since the peculiar property is insensitive to the level of aggregation of the

sales series, the testing procedure is readily applicable to any finite sales series.

Key Words: Distributed-Lag Models; Koyck; Autocovariance; Autocorrelation.

3

1. Introduction

Substantial effort has gone into the modeling of dynamic sales response to

advertising using time series data. As parsimony has been an important criteria in these

efforts, a number of theoretically plausible response schemes which parsimoniously

capture the fundamental aspects of dynamic sales response have been proposed. Perhaps

the most popular scheme is the Koyck model (Koyck 1954). Although arising from a clever

algebraic manipulation, the model is appealing because of the presumed link between

advertising effectiveness and consumer memory decay.

Despite its popularity, substantially less work has been done on testing whether

or not the a priori model is appropriate given available time series observations. In

applied econometric work in marketing, the simple model specification to which the Koyck

scheme gives rise is used as a starting point from which other measurement or estimation

issues are investigated. Indeed, Hanssens, Parsons and Schultz (1990, p. 225) argue that

many of the published Koyck models would not survive a careful test. Although

specification testing in applied econometric work in marketing is in general the exception

rather than the rule, the chronic lack of it in the use of the Koyck model might be linked to

estimation difficulties. Specifically, the small-sample properties of the derived estimates

are not well established. This results from two complicating factors in the model:

autocorrelated errors and stochastic regressors. Since at best desirable asymptotic

properties can be obtained, it becomes difficult (if not impossible) to rely on traditional

specification analysis approaches (Theil 1971). This becomes particularly complicated

when only temporally aggregated time series observations are available.

Specification testing receives substantially more attention in the time-series

literature (Box and Jenkins 1976). However, transfer function modeling requires

advertising (or marketing efforts in general) to be stochastic (Hanssens, Parsons and

Schultz 1990). Although advertising series might appear stochastic and could conceivably

be described by an ARMA process, one would be hard pressed to argue that the

advertising budgeting and allocation decisions underlying the series are implicitly random.

The testing of whether or not the Koyck scheme is appropriate can nevertheless

be accomplished rather simply. This paper illustrates a procedure which is based on

knowing only the sales series. With the firm's advertising decision behavior being

deterministic, the autocovariances of the sales series implied by the Koyck model are

derived. They are shown to have a peculiar characteristic which recurs irrespective of the

4

level of temporal aggregation. That characteristic is linked with an established time series

test to arrive at a straightforward and directly applicable testing procedure.

2. Analytic Framework

The Koyck Model

The Koyck model finds its origin in a distributed lag specification of sales

response to advertising, or

st = 13o at + pi _ + P2 at _ 2 + + vt (1)

where s t denotes sales at time t, and at denotes advertising at time t with

E (vt) = 0, E (vt vt _ i) = c7,3 for i = 0 and E (v t vt _ i) = 0 for i 0. For simplicity, but without

loss of generality, all intercept terms will be suppressed.

The Koyck scheme refers to a specific assumption about the response parametersi = 1, 2, 3, .... in (1). Specifically, the effect of the lagged advertising terms is a

declining geometric sequence

Ri = (1 - X.)

for i = 1,2,3.... (2)

with 0 < < 1. This hypothesised pattern of response is appealing because of the

presumed link between marketing effectiveness and consumer memory decay. It seems

intuitive that advertising recall peaks immediatley and then gradually decays. With

assumption (2), it can be shown that model (1) can be expressed parsimoniously as

st = st_i + 0 at + tit (3)

where 13 = y (1 - X) and tit = vt - Hence, in a Koyck scheme, the disturbance term tit

in (3) has the following properties:

E (10 = 0,

and

5

E (u t u t = 0 for N >1

= - X cs,3 for N = 1 (4)

= (5.3 (1 + 22) for i = O.

Model (3) is the Koyck model often estimated in applied econometric work in

marketing (for a recent overview, see Hanssens, Parsons, and Schultz 1990). 1 Parameter

X in (3) is commonly referred to as the advertising carryover parameter. Modifications of

(2) have been considered where the geometric process kicks in after a number of lags.

The net result is that additional lagged advertising terms show up in the parsimonious

expression (3). This is inconsequential for the results derived here as the testing

procedure relies entirely on disturbance term ut and its properties which are not altered

when one imposes a Koyck pattern after a certain lag. Although this will make the testing

procedure applicable to a wide range of specifications, it also implies that when the

empirical evidence is in favour of the Koyck scheme, one will not be able to discriminate

among various delayed or instant geometric declining sequences. One should keep in

mind, however, that the objective and strength of any testing lies in being able to reject (or

disprove) a hypothesis. Interpretive issues arising once the evidence does not enable

rejection are secondary. They should nevertheless not be ignored, and the lack of

discriminatory power once the Koyck scheme cannot be rejected will be discussed later.

Autocovariances of the Sales Series

Successive substitution in expression (3) implies that st can be expressed as

s t = [a t + X at _ + X2 at _ 2 +

+ [11, + ut-1+^,2 ut- 2+ ].

When advertising is deterministic (i.e., no random component enters either the budgeting

and/or the allocation rule),

E (s t) = 13 [a t + at _ + - 2 + (5)

By definition, the autocovariance between s t and St - k equals

Coy (so St - = E [S t - E (S t)] [ S t - k E (St -

6

which, incorporating expression (5), can be written as

Coy (s t, St-k) = E [U t + X UL - 1 + A-2 Ut- 2 + ) (ut - k + XUt - k - I + X2 Ut - k -2 +Or

Coy (st, s t k) = E (u t ut _ k + X ut Ut - k - 1 + X2 Ut Ut - k - 2 +

+ X Ut - 1 Ut -k + X2U t - 1 Ut - k 1 + X3U t - 1 Ut - k - 2 +

+ 2 Ut k + A.3 Ut _ 2 U t _ k _ + X4 Ut _ 2 U t _ k _ 2 +

+Xk - U t -k +1 Ut - k + Ut - k + 1 Ut - k - 1 + Xk + 1 Ut - k + 1 Ut - k -2+

+ xk ut ut k +xk + 1 + xk + 2 ut _k u t - k - 2 + Ut k Ut - k - 1

+ xk + 1 Ut k Ut k + xk + ? Ut k 1 Ut k 1+ + 3u t - k - 1 Ut - k - 2+

+ Xk 2 U t - k - 2 U t - k Xk 3 U t k - 2 U t - k - 1 + Xk 4 Ut k - 2 Ut - k - 2 +

Given the properties of disturbance ut shown in (4), the autocovariance becomes

Coy (St, St - = ?Lk - 1 (_ x 63)

+ xk [az, ( 1 + + xk + 1 (-X)

+ xk+1(-xcyD+xk+2[G3(1+x2)]+xk+3(_xoi)

xk + 3 (_ a) + xk + 4{03 (1 + x2)] + xk + 5 a?)

+ xk+i (_x 0.3)+ xk-Fi+1[(33 (1 +x2)]+xki-i-F2(_x153)

7

Rearranging the terms,

Cov (s i , st _ = Xk {- a?, + a? (1 + X2) - X2 Gil

▪ xk + 2 [_ cyz (53 4. 22) _ x2 (3.?]

xk + 4 [_ (3,3 + + x2 ) _ x2 0.31

▪ xk + i + 1 [_ c53 +a3 +x2)-x2avJ

Since the recurring terms in brackets all equal zero, it is evident that Co y (s, s,_ = 0 for

all k 0. Hence, the autocovariance matrix of the sales series arising from a Koyck

scheme is a scalar matrix with the scalar equal to the variance of the stationary sales

series (i.e., (53 (1 + 7, 2) as shown in (4)).

When the sales series are aggregated over time

(i.e., S t = st + st _ 1 + st _ 2 + + S t _ m 1 ), the observations will consist of the moving-sum

series St, S t _ m, .... etc. For a stationary autoregressive process, an autocovariance

generating function exists which equals (Teller 1967)

Cov (S t, S t _ k) = B (L) B (L-1 ) Cov (s,, s t _ (6)

with B (L) = 1 + L + L2 + + Lm I where L denotes the lag operator (i.e., L St = s,-1).

For the Koyck model, expression (6) together with the autocovariance results

derived above imply that Cov (S t, S t _ k) = 0 and this for all m and k 0. In other words,

irrespective of the level of temporal aggregation, the autocovariance matrix of the sales

series arising from a Koyck scheme is a scalar matrix. This unconditional property

becomes the basis for the testing procedure discussed next.

8

3. Testing Procedure

Autocorrelation Function

The autocovariance results obtained above can be readily extended to

autocorrelation, since by definition

Pk = coy (st, st-k)/var (st) for all k

(7)

where p denotes autocorrelation and var (s t) denotes variance of the stationary sales

series. This relationship is particularly useful as the autocorrelation matrix has been

studied extensively in the time-series literature (Box and Jenkins 1976). Hence, standard

testing results from that literature can be applied to the peculiar autocorrelation pattern

implied by the Koyck scheme.

The autocovariance results derived above imply that the autocorrelation matrix is

an identity matrix2. Hence, the autocorrelation function or correlogram (the positive side of

the plot of autocorrelations as a function of lags) has a spike of magnitude one at zero and

zero for every other lag. This function plays a critical role in time-series analysis in

identifying the stochastic process generating the series. It is interesting to note that in

that literature "carryover" leads to autocorrelation functions whose signs alternate and

damp out with increasing lags (Box and Jenkins 1976, p. 33). This is strikingly different

from the autocorrelation function implies by a Koyck model which in the sales response

literature in marketing is associated with carryover effects.

Estimation and Testing

The development up to now has only considered theoretical autocovariances and

autocorrelations implied by a Koyck scheme. In applied research, finite time series on

sales are available and only estimates of the autocovariances and autocorrelations can be

derived. The estimate of the k-lag autocorrelation identified as most satisfactory in the

time-series literature equals (Jenkins and Watts 1968)

p k = coy (sr, St-k)/var (sr)

where

coy (st, St-k) = 1n

(St--S)(St-k-i) for all k,n - k +1 t=k

9

and

Val' (S t) = En (stt.i

with s denoting the sample mean of the observed series.

For inference purposes, an estimate of the variance of Pk is needed. For a series

whose autocorrelations are zero beyond lag q, Bartlett (1946) provides the approximation

var ( 1 + 2E p?)

for k >q1=1

which implies that for the sales series in a Koyck model, the simple yardstick of

var ( = l/n is a pretty good approximation.

Assuming that the autocorrelation estimates p k (for all k) are distributed

normally with their true value p k as mean and (1/n) as variance, the classical t-test can

be relied upon to test whether or not the autocorrelations are significantly different from

zero. If the empirical results for the finite sales series imply some p k for k > 0 to be

significantly different from zero, this would suggest that the Koyck scheme is not an

appropriate scheme to parsimoniously represent dynamic sales response to advertising.

In the identification process in time-series analysis, this test is usually

supplemented with a partial autocorrelation test because the inference of the true

stochastic process can be severely hampered by spurious autocorrelations (Hanssens,

Parsons, and Schultz 1990, p. 123). The objective there is to identify singularly significant

spikes in the autocorrelation function. The inference question in this paper is slightly

different. The objective is to falsify the Koyck model hypothesis and, hence, the lack of

singularly significant spikes is being assessed. In that sense, the t-test in itself suffices

and spurious autocorrelations make that test more powerful.

1 0

4. Discussion and Conclusion

The autocorrelation test just described is readily applicable to any sales series

even when the observations are aggregated over time. This is a direct result from the fact

that, as shown above, the autocorrelation function is identical across levels of aggregation.

The power of the test is a function of the number of observations in the sales series. Both

the autocorrelation estimates and Bartlett's approximation of their variance improve as the

number of observations increases. The yardstick generally applied in time-series analysis

is that the finite series should have at least 50 observations.

As pointed out above already, if the empirical evidence suggests that the Koyck

hypothesis cannot be rejected, the procedure does not allows for the identification of the

exact scheme underlying the data. In other words, if the null hypothesis cannot be

rejected, the test has no power in discriminating, for example, a delayed Koyck scheme

from an instantaneous one. The inferential power of the test lies in its ability to reject the

often selected Koyck model based on a finite series of sales observations.

1 1

Footnotes

1. Hanssens, Parsons, and Schultz (1990, p. 225) report that the mere presence of X. > 0

in (3) is often used as sufficient evidence of a Koyck response process.

2. In spectral analysis terminology, the Koyck model implies a uniform spectral density

function.

1 2

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"Marine efficiency and equity pricing:international evidence and implications forglobal investing", March 1988.

'Monopolistic competition, cosh ofadjustment and the behavior of Europeanemployment", September 1987.

"Reflections ow "Wait Unemployment" isEarope". November 1987, revised February

1988.

"Individual bias in judgements ofconfidence", March 1988.

'Portfolio selection by mutual hmds, anequilibrium model", March 1988.

"De-industrialiae see*e for quality", March

1988 (88/03 Revised).

"Proper Quadratic reowtions with asApplication to AT&T", May 1987 (Revised

March 1988).

"Equilibria de Nash-Coursot dons le iambieurophs du gas: an cm Mt les solutions eahawk invert* et to feedback coincident",Mars 1988.

"Information disclosure, mesas of payment,and takeover preemie. rubric and Private

tender offers is France", July 1985, Sixth

revision, April 1988.

"The future of forecasting", April 1988.

88/26 Sjur Didrik FLAM

and Georges ZACCOUR

"Semi-competitive Conning equilibrium in!multistage olitopoties", April 1988.

88/39 Manfred KETS DE VRIES "The Leader as Mirror : Clinical88/27 Murugappe KRISHNAN

"Entry game with resalable capacity", Reflections", July 1988.

Litre-Hendrik ROLLER

April 1988.

88/28 Summers OHOSHAL andC. A. BARTLETT

110/29 Nareeh K. MALHOTRA,Christian PINSON andArun K. LAIN

88/30 Catherine C. ECKELand Theo VERMAELEN

88/31

Summers GHOSHAL andChristopher BARTLETT

88/32

Kama FBIDOWS andDavid SACKRIDER

38/33 Mihkel M. TOMBAK



88/36 Vikas TIBREWALA andBruce BUCHANAN

"The multiestional corporation m a network:perspectives from interorganizatiotudtheme. May 1988.

"Commeser cognitive complexity and thedionahty of multidimensional scalingcoefiguratioas", May 1988.

"The financial fallout from Chernobyl: riskperceptions and regulatory response", May1988.

"Creation. adoption, and diffSion ofinnovations by shadiaries of multinationalcorporations", June 1988.

•Interstiortal manufacturing: positioningpleats for success", June 1988.

"The Importune of flexibilitymmortfacturing•dune 1988.

"Pladhllity: se imports* dimension insuaufachwing", June 1988.

"A strategic analysis of investment ie flexflriemamelacturing systems", July 1988.

"A Predictive Test of the NBD Model thatControls for Nowstationarity", June 1988.

R8/40 loiter LAKONISHOK andTheo VERMAELEN

88/41 Charles WYPLOSZ

88/42 Paul EVANS

38/43 B. SINCLAM-DESOAGNE

88/44 Foram MAHMOUD andSpyros MAKRIDAKIS

118/45 Robert KORAJCZYKand Claude VIALLET

88/46

Yves DOZ andAmy SHUEN

83/ 47

Alain BULTEZ,Ele GUSBRECHTS,Philippe NAERT andPiet VANDEN ABEELE

88/48

Michael BURDA

"Anomalous price behavior aroundrepurchase tender often", August 1988.

"Assymetry is the FMS: intentional orsystemic?", August 1988.

"Organizational development in thetransnational enterprise", June 1988.

"Group decision support systems keplementBasilian rationality", September 1988.

"The state of the art and future directionsfa combining forecastle, September 1988.

"An empirical istatiantioa of international11880 Peletell •, November 1986, revisedAugust 1988.

"From hest to esicome: a proceasframework for parmeniips", August 1988.

"Asymmetric earnslwarism between Inbatitineitems hated by retailers", September 1988.

*Reflections en 'Wait unemployisene inFarope, II", April 1988 revised September1988.

88/49 Nathalie DIERICENS •leformation symmetry and equity imees".88/37

Murugappa KRISHNAN

"Regulating Price-Liability Competition To September 1988.Las-Hendrik ROLLER

Improve Welfare", July 1988.

88/38 Manfred KETS DE VRIES "The Motivating Role of Ens : A ForgottenFatter in Management", April 88.

33/50 Rob WEITZ andArnoud DE MEYER

38/51 Rob WEITZ

"Managing expert systems: from inceptionthrough updating", October 1987.

"Technology, work, and the organization:the impact of expert systems", July 1988.

88/63 Fernando NASCIMENTOand Wilfried R.VANHONACKER

88/64

Kura FERDOWS

83/65

Arnoud DE MEYERand Kura FERDOWS

88/66

Nathalie DIERKENS

811/67

Paul S. ADLER andKeen FERDOWS

im89/01

Joyce K. BYRER andTawfik JELASSI

89/02

Louis A. LE BLANCand Tawfik JELASSI

89/03

Beth H. JONES andTawfik JELASSI

89/04 Kars FERDOWS and

Arnaud DE MEYER

I19/05

Martin KILDUFF andReinhard ANGELMAR

89/06 Mihkel M. TOMBAK andB. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE

'Strategic pricing of differentiated conunnerdurables in a dynamic duopoly: • numericalanalysis", October 1988.

"Charting strategic Min for internationalfactories", December 1988.

"Quality up, technology down", October 1988

"A discussion of exact measures ofinformation amymetry: the example of Myersand Mode model or the importance of thewait structure of the Bra', December 1988.

'The chief technology officer", December1988.

"The impact of languor theories on DSSdialog", January 1989.

"DSS ,shwas selection: a multiple criteriadecides methodology', January 1989.

"Negotiates support: the effects of comptherintervention and contrite level en bealailiedoutcome", January 1989.

"Lasting improvement in manufacturingperformance: le search of • new theory",January 1989.

'Shared history or shared culture? Theeffects of time, culture, and performance owinstitutionalization in simulatedorganizations', January 1989.

"Coordinating manufacturing and businessstrategies: I", February 1989.

M1/52 Susan SCHNEIDER and "Carideo' mod organisational analysis:

Reinhard ANGELMAR who's minding the store?", September 1988.

88/53


"Whatever happened to the philosopher-king: Me leader's addiction to power,September 1988.

88/54

Lam-Hendrik ROLLER

"Shute* choke of flexible productionand Mihkel M. TOMBAK technologies and welfare implications",

October 1988

88/55

Peter BOSSAERTS

"Method of moments teals of contingentand Pierre BILLION claims asset pricing models", October 1988.

88/56

Pierre BILLION

•Sinesmorted portfolios and the violation ofthe random walk hypothesis: Additiotudempirical evidence and implication for testsof met pricing models", June 1988.

88/57

Wilfried VANHONACKER

"Data trassferabtlity: est:nada, the responseand Lydia PRICE effect of More events based urn historical

omalogy% October 1988.

MUSS

B. SINCLAIR-DESGAGN$ "Ameraken ethounnic itemiser/4y% Novemberand Mihkel M. TOMBAK

1988.

86/59

Moron KILDUFF

"The Interpol:tonal stn nacre of decisionasking: a social comparison approach toorgaromotiosnl choke", November 1988.

88/60 Michael BURDA "Is sakisatch redly the problem? Someanimates of the Chelwood Gate II modelwith US data', September 1988.

88/61

Lora-Hendrik ROLLER

"Modeling cost structure: the Bell Systemrevisited', November 1988.

88/62

Cynthia VAN HULLE, "Regulation, taxes and the market forTheo VERMAELEN and corporate control in'Belgium", SeptemberPaul DE WOUTERS 1988.

89/07 Damien I. NEVEN

89/08

Arnoud DE MEYER andHelium SCHOTTE

89/09

Damien NEVEN,Carmen MATUTES andMarcel CORSTIENS

89/10 Nathalie DIERKENS,Bruno GERARD andPierre HILLION

89/11

Manfred KETS DE VRIESand Main NOEL

89/12

Wilfried VANHONACKER

89/13


89/14

Reinhard ANGELMAR

89/15

Reinhard ANGELMAR

89/16

Wilfried VANHONACKER,Donald LEHMANN andFareena SULTAN

89/17

Gilles AMADO,Claude FAUCHEUX andAndr6 LAURENT

•Struchwal adjustment i• European retailbookies. Some view from industrialorganisation", January 1989.

"Trash ia the development of technologymod their effects on the production structureis the European Community", January 1989.

"Bread proliferation and entry deterrence",February 1989.

"A market based approach to the valuationof the assets in place and the growthopporhotitiee of the firm", December 1988.

"Uaderstseding the leader-stratepy interface:applicationof the strategic relationshipinterview method", February 1989.

Vatimathis dynamic seepa ge* models whenthe data are subject to different temporalaggregation", January 1989.

"The impostor syndrome: a etisquktingphenomenon i• organisational life", February1989.

"Product immovation: a tool for competitiveadvantage", March 1989.

"Evaluating • firm's product innovationperformance", March 1989.

"Carib:sing related and sparse data is linearregreation models", February 1989.

"Changernent organkstionnel et rgatitfscalMrelles: contrastes franco-sm4ricains",March 1989.

89/18 Srinivasan BALAK-RISHNAN andMitchell KOZA

89/19 Wilfried VANHONACKER,Donald LEHMANN andFareena SULTAN

89/20 Wilfried VANHONACKERand Russell WINER

89/21 Arnoud de MEYER andKarma FERDOWS

89/22 Manfred KETS DE VRIESand Sydney PERZOW

89/23 Robert KORAJCZYK andClaude VIALLET

89/24 Martin KILDUFF andMitchel ABOLAFIA

89/25

Roger BETANCOURT andDavid GAUTSCHI

89/26

Charles BEAN.Edmond MALINVAUD,Peter BERNHOLZ,Francesco GIAVAllIand Charles WYPLOSZ

89/27 David KRAC1CHARDT andMartin KILDUFF

89/28

Martin KILDUFF

•Inforiastioa asymmetry, market failure andjoint-ventures: theory and evidence",March 1989.

"Combining related mad sparse data is linearencomia. models", Revised March 1989.

"A rational random behavior model ofchoke", Revised March 1989.

Influence of mamincherim improvementprogrammes on performance", April 1989.

"What Is the role of character inpaychmardysis?" April 1989.

"Emily risk preemie mad the prkeg offortiga exchange risk" April 1989.

"The social destruction of reality:Oraaeisatioaal mallet as acid drama"sApril 1989.

"Two essential ebaratteristies of retailmarkets sad their eatuoulie eeseequemeee•March 1989.

"Macroeconomic policies for 1992: thetransition mad after", April 1989.

"Friendship pattern and culturalottramtions: the control of organizatimaldiversity", April 1989.

"The interpersonal structure of decisionmaking: sandal comprisen approach toorganizational choke, Revised April 1989.

89/42

89/43

89/44

89/45

89/46

89/47

89/48

119/49

89/50

89/51

R9/52

89/29 Robert GOGEL andJean-Claude LARRECHE

89/30 Lars-Hendrik ROLLERand Mihkel M. TOMBAK

89/31 Michael C. BURDA andStefan GERLACH

89/32 Peter HAUG andTawfik JELASSI

89/33 Bernard SINCLAIR-DESOAGNE

89/34 Sumanua OHOSHAL andNittin NOIIRIA

89/35 Jean DERMINE andPierre HILLION

89/36 Martin KILDUFF



89/39 Robert KORAJCZYK andClaude VIALLEP

89/40 Balaji CHAKRAVARTHY

'The battlefield for 1992: product strengthand geographic coverage", May 1989.

"Competition and Investment in FlexibleTechnologies", May 1989.

"Intertemporal prices and the US tradebalance's durable goods*, July 1989.

"Application and evaluation of a multi-criteria dodgem support system for thedynamic selection of U.S. manufacturinglocations", May 1989.

"Deign flenlisTity in mortopoonkticindustries", May 1989.

"Requisite variety versus shared values:managging corporate-division relationships inShe M-Forma organisation", May 1989.

"Deposit rate ceilings and the market valueof banks: The case of France 1971-1981",May 1989.

"A tfispositionid approach to social networks:tbe case of organizatiostal choice", May 1989.

"The organisatiosuil fool: balancing aleader's hubris", May 1989.

"The CEO blues", June 1989.

"An empirical isvestigation of intetuatiotuilmeet pricing", (Revised June 1989).

"Management systems for innovation andproductivity", June 1989.

Robert ANSON andTawfik JELASSI

Michael BURDA

Balaji CHAICRAVARTHYand Peter LORANGE

Rob %VEITZ andArnoud DE MEYER

Marcel CORSTJENS,Carmen MATUTES andDamien NEVEN

Manfred KETS DE VRIESand Christine MEAD

Damien NEVEN andLars-Hendrik ROLLER

Jean DERMINE

Jean DERMINE

Spyros MAKRIDAJUS

Arnoud DE MEYER

Spyrna MAKRIDAKIS

S. BALAKRISHNANand Mitchell KOZA

"A development framework for compeer-supported conflict resolution", July 1989.

"A note on firing costs and severance benefitsin equilibrium unemployment', June 1989.

"Strategic adaptation in multi-businessfirms", June 1989.

"Managing expert systems: • framework andewe study", June 1989.

"Entry Eaumsragenseot", July 1989.

"The global disseits i leadership modorganization: lames god costroversies", April1989.

*European integratille and trade flows",August 1989.

"Home country cushy' and emstualrecotimitioe", July 1989.

'The specialisation of finamial Institutional,the EEC model', August 1989.

'Stiffing ahavIntimn • new approach to timeseries forecnstiog", July 1989.

•Sborteming development cycle times: amanufacturer's perapective", August 1989.

"Why combining works?", July 1989.

"Organisation costs and • theory of jointventures", September 1989.

89/53

89/54

89/41 B. SINCLAIlt-DESGAGNE "The strategic supply of precisions', Juneand Nathalie DIERKENS 1989.

89/SS H. SCHUTTE "Faro-Japeneee cooperation in information 89/67 Peter BOSSAERTS and "Market microstructure effects oftechnology", September 1989. (FIN) Pierre HILUON government intervention ist the foreign

exchange market", December 1989.89/56 Wilfrkd VANHONACKER

and Lydia PRICE"ON the practical usefulness of meta-analysisremain% September 1989.

199089/57 Teekwon KIM,

Lars-Hendrik ROLLERand Mihkel TOMBAK

"Market growth and the diffusion ofmultiproduct technologies", September 1989. 90/01

TM/EP/ACB. SINCLAIR-DESCIAGNE "Unaveidabk Mechanisms", January 1990.

89/58 Lars-Hendrik ROLLER *Strategic aspects of flexible production 90/02 Michael BURDA "MampoNstic Competition, Costs ofand Motel TOMBAK technologies", October 1989. EP Atiinstment, and the Behaviour of European

Maaufactarias Fumploymeat", January 1990.89/59(OS)

Manfred KETS DE VRIES,Daphne ZEVADI,Alain NOEL andMihkel TOMBAK

"Locus of control and entrepreneurship: •three-country comparative study", October1989.

90/03TM

Arnaud DE MEYER "Mmumesened of COUNIIIIMIiC•6001International Research and Development",January 1990.

89/60 Enver YUCESAN and VanWes graph, for design and mudysis of 90/04 Gabriel HAWAWINI and "The Tramfonsattem of the European(TM) Lee SCHRUBEN dicrete event simidttiora models", October FIN/EP Eric RAJENDRA Plasacial Services Itsistry: From

1989. Fraamadatisa to laherstioa", January 1990.

89/61 Susan SCHNEIDER and "Interpreting and respontling to strata* 90/05 Gabriel HAWAWINI and "European Equity Markets: Toward 1992(AB) Arnaud DE MEYER issues: The Impact of national culture",

October 1989.FIN/EP Bertrand JACQUILLAT and Beyond", January 1990.

90/06 Gabriel HAWAWINI and "Integration of Europer Funky Markets:89/62(TM)

Arnaud DE MEYER "Technology strategy and international R&Doperations", October 1989.

FIN/EP Eric RAJENDRA Impficatines of %ventral Clump for KeyMarket Participants to and Beyond 1992",January 1990.

89/63 Enver YUCESAN and "Equivalence of sinnalstions: A graph(TM) Lee SCHRUBEN approach", November 1989. 90/07 Gabriel HAWAWINI "Stock Market Amman seed the Pricing of

89/64(TM)

Enver YUCESAN andLee SCHRUBEN

"Complexity of simulation models: A graphtheoretic approach", November 1989.

FIN/EP Equity ea the Tokyo Stock Exchange",January 1990.

90/08 Tawfik JELASSI and "Modelling with MCDSS: What about89/65(TM,AC, FIN)

Soumitre DITITA andPiero BONISSONE

"MARS: A mergers and acquisitionsreasoning system", November 1989.

TM/EP

90/09EP/FIN

B. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE

Alberto GIOVANNINIand Jae WON PARK

Ethics?", January 1990.

*Capital Controls and International Tradename", January 1990.

89/66frMrEll

B. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE "On the regulation of procurement bide,November 1989. 90/10 Joyce BRYER and "The Impact of Language Theories on DSS

TM Tawfik JELASSI Dialog", January 1990.

90/21 Roy SMITH and "Reconfiguration of the Global Securities90/11 Enver YUCESAN •An Overview of Frequency Domain FIN Ingo WALTER Industry in the 1990's", February 1990.TM Methodology for Simulation Sensitivity

Analysis", January 1990. 90/22 Ingo WALTER "European Financial Integration and 1bFIN Implications for the United States", February

90/12 Michael BURDA 'Structural Change, Unemployment Benefits 1990.EP Ind High Unemployment: A U.S.-Enropean

Comporinedanuary 1990. 90/23 Damien NEVEN "EEC Integration towards 1992: SomeEP/SM DiStributional Aspects", Revised December

90/13 Soumitre DUTTA and 'Approximate Reasoning about Temporal 1989

TM Shashi SHEKHAR Constraints in Real Time Planning andSearch", January 1990. 90124 Lars Tyge NIELSEN "Positive Prices in CAPM", January 1990.

Fl N/ EP90/14 Albert ANGEHRN and "Sinai Interactive Modelling and IntelligentTM Hans-Jakob LOTHI DS& Patting Theory Into Practice", January

1990.90/25FIN/EP

Lars Tyge NIELSEN "Eminence of Equiliwism is CAMP,January 1990.

90/15 Arnoud DE MEYER, 'The Internal Technological Renewal of a 90/26 Charles KADUSHIN and "Why networking Fab: Double Mods andTM Dirk DESCHOOLMEESTER.

Rudy MOENAERT andBeni tom Unit with a Mature Technology",January 1990.

011/BP Michael BRIMM the Limitations of Shadow Networks",February 1990.

Jan RARBE90/27 Abbas FOROUGH1 and "NSS Solutions to Bier Negotiation

90/1ti Richard LEVICH and •Tax-Drives Regulatory Dreg: Earner TM Tawfik JELASSI Stumbling Blocks• February 1990.FIN Ingo WALTER Finoncial Centers in the 1990's", January

1990. 90/28TM

Arnoud DE MEYER "The Itinsafachning Cootrilbstioa tohmovaties", February 1990.

90117FIN

Nathalie DIERJCENS "Information Asymmetry and Equity Imes",Revised January 1990. 90/29 Nathalie DIERICENS "A Dimension of Correct Menem of

FIN/AC Information Asymmetry", January 1990.

90/111 Wilfried VANHONACKFR "Managerial Decision Rules and theMKT Estimation of Dynamic Saks Response 90/30 Lars Tyge NIELSEN mile Expected Utility of Fortran: of

Models", Revised January 1990. FIN/EP Assets", March 1990.

90/19 Beth JONES and Me Effect of Computer Intervention and 90/31 David GAUTSCHI and •what Deeergobses U.S. Retail Margins?",TM Tawfik JELASSI Task %where on Bargaining Outcome",

February 1990.

MKT/EP Roger BETANCOURT February 1990.

90/32 Srinivasan BALAJC- • Information Asymmetry, Adverse Selection90/20TM

Tawfik JELASSI,Gregory KERSTEN and

"An Introduction to Group Decision andNegotiation Support", February 1990.

SM RISHNAN and

Mitchell KOZA

and Joint- Ventures: Theory and Evidence",Revised, January 1990.

Stanley ZIONTS 90/33 Caren SIEHL. "The Role of Rites of Integration in Service011 David BOWEN and Delivery". March 1990.

Christine PEARSON

90/45 Soumitra DUTTA and "Integrating Cave Based mad Rule Based90/31FIN/EP

lean DERMINE Me Gabs from Europese Bankingletegration, a Call for a Pro-Active

TM Piero BONISSONE Reasoning: The Possibaistic Comedies".May 1990.

Competitioa Policy", April 1990.90/46 Spyroa MAKRIDAIUS "Expoestial Smoothies: The Effect of

90/35 Ise Won PARK "Cbeastios Uncertainty end the Time- TM and Michile HIBON labial Values and Loos Fbactioas on Post-EP Varying Risk Premia hi the Term Structure

of Nominal Werra Rates", December 1988,Revised March 1990. 90/47 Lydia PRICE and

Sample Formalities Accuracy'.

"Improper Sending le NaturalMKT Wilfried VANHONACKER Experiments: Limitations on the Use of

90/36 Arnoud DE MEYER 'An Empirical Investigation of Meta-Analysis Results in BardenTM Manufactories Ferategies in European Updating", Revised May 1990.

brebstry", April 1990.90/48 he WON PARK "Tbe Informatioa he the Term Structure of

90/37TM/OB/Sts

William CATS-BARE. "Erecndve Information Systems: Developingan Approach to Open the Possibies", April

EP Interest Rates: Out-of-Sample ForecastingPerformance', June 1990.

1990.90/49 Soumitra DUTTA "Appnrsimate Rermanhag by Analogy to

90/38 Wilfried VANHONACKER 'Managerial Decider' Behaviour and the TM Ammer Null Quartile, Ante 1990.MKT Eatimatiou of Dynamic Sales Response

Models", (Revised February 1990). 90/50 Daniel COHEN and "Trice 'Ed Trade Meets of EserJuiege RatesEP Charles WYPLOSZ Fletteadems mad the Design of Polley

90/39TM

Louie LB BLANC andTartfik IELASSI

'An Evaluating and Selection Metbodolopfor Revert System Shells", May 1990.

Coordimptios", April 1990.

90/51 Michael BURDA and 'Gross Labour Market Flows is Europe:90/10 Manfred KETS DE VRIES 'Leaders on the Couch: The case of Roberto EP Charles WYPLOSZ Some Stylised Facts", Tune 1990.OB cavil% April 1990.

90152 Lan Type NIELSEN "The Utility of White Mena", lune 1990.90/41FIN/EP

Gabriel HAWAWINI,Itzhat SWARY and

"Capital Market Reactor to theArimonacenent of !dentate Banking

FIN

Ik HWAN LANG Legislation', March 1990. 90/S3EP

Michael Burn .me Camequarcea of German Ecoolondeand Monetary Union", lune 1990.

90/42 Joel STECKEL and "Croes-Veadating Regression Modes iaMKT Wilfried VANHONACKER Marketing Research", (Revised April 1990). 90/54 Damien NEVEN and "Europese Fkaracial Regaled= A

EP Cohn MEYER Framework for Policy Analysis', (Revised90/43 Robert KORAICZYK and "Equity Risk hernia and the Prides of May 1990).FIN Claude VIALLET Foreign Exchange Risk", May 1990.

90/55 Michael BURDA and •Intertemporal Prices and the US Trade90/44OB

Gilles AMADO,Claude FAUCHEUX and

"Organisational Change and CulturalRealities: Franco-American Contrasts", April

F.P Stefan GERLACH Balance", (Revised July 1990).

Andre LAURENT 1990.

90/56 Damien NEVEN and "The Structure and Determinants of East-WestEl' Lars-Hendrik ROLLER Trade: A Preliminary Analysis of the 90/68 Soumitra DUTTA "A Framework and Methodology for Enhancing the

Manufacturing Sector", July 1990 TM/SE Business Impact of Artificial IntelligenceApplications", September 1990

90/57 Lars Tyge NIELSEN Common Knowledge of a Multivariate AggregateFIN/EP/ Statistic", July 1990 90/69 Soumitra DUTTA "A Model for Temporal Reasoning in MedicalTM TM Expert Systems", September 1990

90/58

FIN/EP/TM

Lars Tyge NIELSEN "Common Knowledge of Price and Expected Costin an Oligopolistic Market", August 1990

90/70

TM

Albert ANGEHRN "'Triple C': A Visual Interactive MCDSS",September 1990

90/59 Jean DERMINE and "Economies of Scale and 90/71 Philip PARKER and "Competitive Effects in Diffusion Models: AnFIN Lars-Hendrik ROLLER Scope in the French Mutual Funds (SICAV) MKT Hubert GATIGNON Empirical Analysis", September 1990

Industry", August 1990

90/72 Enver YUCESAN "Analysis of Minicoy Chains Using Simulation90/60 Pen 1Z and "An Interactive Group Decision Aid for TM Graph Models", October 1990

TM Tawfik JELASSI Multiobjective Problems: An EmpiricalAssessment", September 1990 90/73

TM

Arnoud DE MEYER and

Kasra FERDOWS"Removing the Barriers in Manufacturing",October 1990

90/61 Pankaj CHANDRA and "Models for the Evlauation of ManufacturingTM Mihkel TOMBAK Flexibility", August 1990

90/74 Sumantra GHOSHAL and "Requisite Complexity: Organising Headquarters-90/62 Damien NEVEN and "Public Policy Towards TV Broadcasting in the SM Nitin NOHRIA Subsidiary Relations in MNCs", October 1990

EP Menno VAN DUK Netherlands", August 1990

90/63

SM

Sumantra GHOSHAL and

Eleanor WESTNEY

"Organising Competitor Analysis Systems",August 1990

90/75MKT

Roger BETANCOURT and

David GAUTSCHI"The Outputs of Retail Activities: Concepts,Measurement and Evidence", October 1990

90/76 Wilfried VANHONACKER "Managerial Decision Behaviour and the Estimation90/64

SM

Sumantra GHOSHAL "Internal Differentiation and CorporatePerformance: Case of the Multinational

MKT of Dynamic Sales Response Models",Revised October 1990

Corporation", August 1990

90/65 Charles WYPLOSZ "A Note on the Real Exchange Rate Effect of

EP German Unification", August 1990

90/66 Soumitra DUTTA and "Computer Support for Strategic and TacticalTM/SE/FIN Piero BONISSONE Planning in Mergers and Acquisitions",

September 1990

90/67TM/SE/FIN

Soumitra DUTTA andPiero BONISSONE

"Integrating Prior Cases and Expert Knowledge Ina Mergers and Acquisitions Reasoning System",September 1990

testing the koyck scheme of sales response to advertising...

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