teslas jb straubel at sces2014 - future of evs gigafactories, battery storage and the grid
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Teslas JB Straubel at SCES2014 - Future of EVS gigafactories, battery storage and the gridTRANSCRIPT
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Southern California Energy Summit JB Straubel
CTO, co-founder Oct 10th, 2014
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• Lead-‐acid technology was status quo in 1995 • Performance had stagnated
§ Short lifespan § Very heavy § Short range
Lithium ion Made Possible: § 4 X gravimetric energy density § 6 X volumetric energy density § 3 X cycle life
EV Battery History!
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Industry first Lithium Ion EV Powertrain!
3 -‐
Controls and Software
Power Electronics Module
(DC-AC Inverter, Charger)
Proprietary 53 kWh Lithium ion
battery pack
Proprietary 250hp AC Induction Motor and
Gearbox
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A New Idea at the Time (2004): Performance Electric Cars
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Focus on Energy Storage Packaging and Cost!
Ø Ground-up design as EV-only (Model S)"Ø Optimal packaging, safety and performance"Ø High energy density leads to lower cost" 85 kWh Battery
Pack
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Glass Cockpit – Comfort with Software!
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An Electronics and Software Culture!
• Core focus and Tesla DNA • Battery voltage management • Motor Control • Diagnostics • Touchscreen • Mobile App • Traction and Stability Control
• Complete Over the Air Updates
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Model S!
Starting at $62,400 Starting at $62,400 Starting at $70,000
Performance
§ 0-‐60 mph : 4.2s (sport), 3.2s (dual motor sport) Driving range
§ 265 miles (US EPA raCng) Advanced range capabiliQes
§ 20 minute DC fast charge capability (10-‐60%)
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Model S – Most Awarded car of 2013!
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Dual Motor Platform – Unveiled Oct 9th !
Ø 3.2 second 0-60mph in Model S “P85D” (really fast!)"Ø Improved efficiency and torque distribution"
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Model X – Launch in 2015!
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Vehicle Aff
orda
bility
Market Size / Timing
Tesla Model S Tesla Model X
Second GeneraCon PlaTorm
Tesla Roadster
First GeneraCon
Model 3 PlaTorm
Tesla Model 3 Sedan & Crossover
Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume!
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Tesla Roadster
GM EV1
Volu
met
ric E
nerg
y D
ensi
ty [W
h/l]
600
500
400
300
200
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
2010 2015 2020
Model S
700
Model 3
Battery Energy Density Trend!
800
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Vehicle Aff
orda
bility
Market Size / Timing
Tesla Model S Tesla Model X
Second GeneraCon PlaTorm
Tesla Roadster
First GeneraCon
Model 3 PlaTorm
Tesla Model 3 Sedan & Crossover
Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume!
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0!
5!
10!
15!
20!
25!
30!
35!
40!
2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016! 2017! 2018! 2019! 2020!
Gigafactory!
Others!
Lishen!
BYD!
BAK!
ATL!
Maxell!
Sony!
Panasonic!
LGC!
SDI!
500,000 Vehicles
Global cell supply growing, but
almost entirely in Asia
Planned 2020 Gigafactory Production Exceeds 2013 Global Production
Battery pack cost/kWh reduced >30% for Model 3
35,000
Vehicles
G
Wh/
Year
Pro
duct
ion
Tesla Battery Gigafactory!
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Module
Cathode Manufacturing
Aluminum Foil
Cathode Electrode
Anode Electrode
Separator Manufacturing Separator Winding
Cell
Assembly
Anode Manufacturing
Copper Foil
Raw
Mat
eria
ls
Cell
Cell
Cell
…
Pack
Module
Module
Module
…
Pack Enclosure
Vehicle Assembly (Fremont, CA)
Can & Cap
Ba=ery Pack Life@me Usage
Ba=ery Pack Recycling
Raw Steel/Aluminum
Electrolyte Manufacturing
Gigafactory Process Flow!
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CoCO3
Ni metal NiCoAlOH (precursor) NiSO4
H2SO4 NaAlO2
NaOH
NiCoAlO
Calcining
Li2CO3 LiOH
Chemical conversion
LiNiCoAlO2
Pulverizing Classifying
O2
Calcining
CoSO4
smelter
Start with Raw Materials Cost!
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• Tesla Supercharger Network DC connection to vehicle 135 kW power (300-415VDC) 0-50% SOC in 20 minutes
• Free unlimited usage by Model S customers
EV Infrastructure – Tesla Supercharger!
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Energy cost disparity growing (between electricity and petroleum) Electric shaS power is roughly 4x as efficient as petroleum Electric shaS power is ~$1.00/gallon equivalent (vs. $4.00/gallon)
EV Operating Cost!
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2014 Year-End Plan – US & Canada!
• 115 active sites in US • > 200 sites worldwide • Adding a new location every ~18 hours
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Superchargers Today (Tesla web Site “find us”)!
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Superchargers around the world!
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2014 Plan - Europe!
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Shanghai Supercharger!
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Tesla Supercharger Usage Metrics!
Total Energy Output (MWh) 10,897
Total Capacity (kW) 65,730 Total # of SC locaQons / stalls 189/1041
(+11 new sites in June)
Total # of Supercharge Sessions ~300,000
Wee
kly
Ener
gy O
utpu
t (M
Wh)
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (k
W)
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1. Badery Cell and Cell Materials Suppliers – huge growth opportunity • Raw materials (Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium Hydroxide, Graphite, Separator, Electrolyte) • Cell Assembly equipment (coaQng, pressing, winding, assembly)
2. Electric UQliQes • Revenue growth and Load Management opportunity • Public charging growth opportunity (fast DC and slower AC) • Growth in renewable energy generaQon with charging storage buffer
3. Power Electronics Suppliers – growth opportunity • IGBT’s, charging, magneQcs, DC-‐DC conversion, thermal interface materials
4. AutomoQve and Equipment OEM’s – significant change, opportunity and risk • New EV product adributes can accelerate sales, delight customers • Lack of innovaQon or bemng on the wrong technology can cause market loss • Poorly implemented EV technology can waste resources and lose customers
5. Oil and Gas Majors – eventual reducQon in revenue but installed base is huge and broad • 1 billion cars on the road, 100M new per year, 0.2% EV (~200,000/yr)
Industries Affected by Transport Electrification!
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Product Line Automotive Residential Commercial
Power/Energy 310 kW / 85 kWh 5 kW / 10 kWh 200 kW / 400 kWh+
Listed Outdoor Rated
Stationary Energy Storage Product Derivatives!
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29
Behind the Meter Concept w/ Solar Net Metering
Electric Utility Ownership
Loads (consumption)
Distributed Generation
Distributed Storage
Bidirectional Energy Flow
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30
Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation
10 x 100kWh = 1MWh
Electric Utility Ownership
Customer Ownership
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31
Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation
Electric Utility Ownership
Customer Ownership
10 x 100kWh = 1MWh
AggregaCon Company
Utility or ISO
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32
Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation
Electric Utility Ownership
Customer Ownership
60 x 100kWh = 6MWh
10,000 homes x 100kWh = 1,000MWh = 1GWh
AggregaCon Company
Utility or ISO
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Stationary Pack at supercharger station in CA!
33
400 kWh ba[ery pack
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Stationary Pack at supercharger station in CA!
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Peak Demand Reduction at Supercharger Site
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MW Scale Stationary Storage!
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200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh
1MW / 2 MWh
Tesla Factory Fremont, CA
Scalable Building Blocks
400 kWh Scalable System!
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Utility Scale Storage!
• Modular • Scalable (10s of MW+) • AC Parallel Connections
– High Reliability – Simplified Construction
20MW / 40 MWh!
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California ISO load curve evolution!
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2020 California Load and Generation Curves!
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2020 California Load and Generation Curves!
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The Ideal Solution?
Q: What area is required to offset 100% of Passenger car miles driven in the USA?1
Photovoltaic
1. 1.658 x 1012 miles in 2002 (DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics) 2. cia.gov
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“The stone age came to an end not for lack of stones And the oil age will come to an end not for lack of oil”
— Sheikh Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister