Tenure Trends in the UK Housing System: Will the private rented sector continue to grow?

Ben Pattison

Policy & Research Officer

The future of housing

• Consultation at Windsor Castle

• Where are we now?

• Importance of ‘housing as a system’

• UK housing system is dysfunctional

• Where do we want to be?

• A housing system that will provide decent and affordable housing for everyone

• How can we get there?

• Eight key areas for attention and detailed suggestions

Tenure trends: background

• The importance of analysing housing as a system

• How and why is the UK housing system changing?

• What are the likely impacts on housing policy?

• This research is a starting point for exploration of these issues and includes:

• Tenure change and the UK housing system

• Future impact of recent changes in tenure mix

• Are recent changes in tenure mix likely to continue?

• What are the policy implications?

Tenure change and the UK housing system

• Important differences between the three main tenures (owner occupation, private renting and social renting)

• Tenure mix has changed significantly over the last one hundred years

• These tenure trends have been the result of:

• Political, economic and social drivers

• Acting over both the short and long term

• For the first time in a century:

• Relative decline of owner occupation

• Sustained increase in the private rented sector

Historic changes in tenure mix

Tenure trend, percentage of households by tenure, England, 1918 to 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

19

18

19

21

19

24

19

27

19

30

19

33

19

36

19

39

19

42

19

45

19

48

19

51

19

54

19

57

19

60

19

63

19

66

19

69

19

72

19

75

19

78

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

ho

us

eh

old

s

Owner occupiers Social renters Private renters

How would tenure mix change if recent trends continue?

Households, by tenure, UK (actual and projected with constant trend), 1997 to 2020

Are recent changes in tenure mix likely to continue?

Some key drivers for recent changes in tenure mix

Policy implications

• Recent changes in tenure mix may well continue, leading to a larger private rented sector

• What roles should each tenure play in the housing system?

• How can government ‘tools’ be used to ensure that the housing system delivers decent and affordable housing for everyone?

• Taxation, subsidy, regulation, local control

• Urgent attention needs paying to private renting, ensuring:

• It meets the needs of households who have not chosen to live in this tenure

• That it is not a tenure of ‘last resort’, an unsatisfactory default for those who can’t access owner occupation or social housing